,,,,,,, :,,,,, ;,,,,,, : N = Y pr, dn N = dy Y - dpr pr, Y, N, pr,, (1),, ( : / ) :,, : t pr = e 1980 t = 1,t 9

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download ",,,,,,, :,,,,, ;,,,,,, : N = Y pr, dn N = dy Y - dpr pr, Y, N, pr,, (1),, ( : / ) :,, : t pr = e 1980 t = 1,t 9"

徨滚宇
5 years ago
Views:

1 () FUDAN JOURNAL (Social Sciences) No (, ) [ ] , :,10-12 %, ,, :,;, [] [] C ;F127 [] A [ ] (2005) ,, , , , , 18 % 35 %20 90,,, [1 ],,,,1980,10 %, ,1 2. 7, , [ ] [ ] (1958 ),,,,, (1968 ),,,, (1972 ),,, 3 : 202 转载

2 ,,,,,,, :,,,,, ;,,,,,, : N = Y pr, dn N = dy Y - dpr pr, Y, N, pr,, (1),, ( : / ) :,, : t pr = e 1980 t = 1,t 98 %, (1) ( ),, 203

3 ( / ) , GDP 8 % 9 % 10 % 11 % 12 %,2 GDP 8 %, ,2005, ;GDP 10 %, , ; GDP 12 %, , ,GDP 8 %, %,GDP 10 %, 1161 %,GDP %, % 2 ( GDP) 8 % 9 % 10 % 11 % 12 % () () () () () ( %),,, ( ), 1. GDP 5, , %,1993 GDP 2000, ,20 70,,1993,,20 90, , , , , , 204

4 2000,,, (,) :,, 2010,, , ;,, , ( ) () ,,, %,5,, (1982 ),10114 % % ;1990, % % ;2000, % %, ( 2), 15 60,,, , 5. 4,930, 2005, , 5. 9, ,,,,,,, 2. 20,, ,,, 8 %, ,960, 260 ; GDP 10 %, , 2000,76. 7,80. 8,0. 96,6,1. 5,10 205

5 400 ; GDP 12 %, , %, ( ) % :,,,, ,,15 39,,,,, 85 % 1.,,, ,,, ,, 1997,,,,,, 206

6 ,20 80,, , 3 4, %, ,,,,, %, ,1996,2000,,,,,,,,,, %, (2) %, %, , , , ( ) ( %) 2. ( ) (1),,14. 3 % (44. 2 %),( 5), 5 ( %) :

7 ,,88 %, 4. 3 %,, 3. 4 % % %, 2003,,, 34 % 20 % 14 %8 %, % %, , ,,,,,,,,, () : () ( %) ( %) : ,??,, 208

8 , , 7,,,, [2 ],,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,, :, (2) 2002, 60 %, %(5 %,7. 5 % ),, , :30 % 3 % 14 %, 47 % ;,, 55 %,30-50 %,;,,,,,,, 1. :? :,6%, %,, 22 % 209

9 ,, :,,,, :,, 20, 10,,,,, ,,,,,,,, 2. :?,, 2004, 10 % :?,,9800,, 3, ,,,,700 ; ;1000,,,, :,,,,, 6 %,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 210

10 , 3. :20,,,,,,,,,1916 %, 6415 %,1211 %, 116 %,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,, 4. (1),,, (2),,,,,,,,(3),,,,,,,, (4),,,,,(5),, [ ] [ 1 ]. [J ].,2000 (4). 211

11 [ 2 ] Meng, Xin & Zhang, Junsen, The Two2Tier Labor Market in Urban China : Occupational Segregation and Wage Differentials between Urban Residents and Rural Migrants in Shanghai. Journal of Comparative Economics 29, Urban Labor Market and Policies for Migrant Labors : The Case of Shanghai and Its Implications YUAN Zhi2gang FENGJin ZHANG Hong ( Center for Employment and Social Security Research, Fudan University, Shanghai , China) Abstract : We study the supply of and the demand for labors during 2005 to 2010 in Shanghai and predict the number of migrant labors required during the same period of time. Our results show that the reproduction of lo2 cal residents cannot meet the demand for labors induced by economic growth. When the growth rate is %, Shanghai should have 3 to 6 million migrant labors available each year. A dilemma is faced by policy makers in urban area dealing with migrant population. Migrant labors will contribute to the urban development as well as reduce the local employment. There are discriminations as to occupation attainment, wage income and social welfare between local residents and migrant labors in Shanghai. Our point is that : the discriminated policy might cause labor shortages and also violate the social equity. So the employment of migrant labors should be adjusted by the market and the responsibility of local government is to create a fair environment for competition. Key words : labor supply and demand ; migrant labors ; employment policy [ ] 212

:,; ;, ( ) 25,, 80 90, 90,,,,,,, ( ), ( ), %,, , ,, ( ),,, ;,,,,,,,,,, ( ) , , 3395,3400, 20 % 30 %,

2005 12 3 ( 100101 ;) ( 100101) :,,,,,,,, : 20,, 20 90,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 3 Urban China Research Network (UCRN) in Albany, New York,,Scott Rozelle,,,, 45 :,; ;, ( ) 25,, 80 90, 90,,,,,,, ( ), ( ), 2003