中国金融体系运行效率分析（提纲）

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洛钱
7 years ago
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2 20 90

3 6

5 IMD

6 (V. Pareto)1906 1

7 X Allocation efficiency efficiency of economic system, efficiency of production, utilization efficiency of resource, 1966 X , 1992,

8 Sumuelson, Economics, McGRAW-HILL Book Company, NEWYORK, 1989, pp971.,

9 20 50 Patrick1966Goldsmith1969Mckinnon 1973Shaw1973Mathieson1980Fry Patrick H.T1966Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped CountriesEconomic Development and Cultural Change14pp

10 Hedge Speculative (Ponzi),,, 5

12 FIR GDP Patrick1966 W

13 2 Patrick H.T1966Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped CountriesEconomic Development and Cultural Change14pp

14 %

15 GDP % % M2/GDP M0/GDP (M2-M0)/GDP M2/GDP M0/GDP (M2-M0)/GDP % % 7.9% 0.8% % 10

16 FIR FIR 11

17 FIR FIR IMF International Finance Statistics M2M0 GDP 90 90% 12

18 2-1-4 % GDP

19 p t p t p t = α + = α + = α + n i= 1 β M i n t i + θ i pt i + i= 1 n n n θ i pt i + i= 1 i= 1 i= 1 β i M t i + γ i Gt i + n n n n θ i pt i + i= 1 i= 1 i= 1 i= 1 β i M t i + γ i Gt i + δ i Yt i + ε t ε t ε t Y M G p 94 GDP F 90 14

20 lnm0 lnm1 lnm2 lnsl lntl lnrpi lncpi lnrpi lncpi lnrpi lncpi SL TL

21 /GDP /GDP /GDP (Engle-Granger Two-step Error-Correction Procedure) (Johansen Multivariate Maximum Likelihood Procedure)

22 2-2-2 lnm0 lnm1 lnm2 lnsl lntl lngdp Engle-GrangerProcedure Johansen Procedure lniy lnhiy lnghy lngdp lniy lnhiy lnghy IY HIY GHY 1% GDP 6% 17

23 % 15.33% 66.28% 10.00% 98.16% % 13.48% 49.89% 8.92% 88.00% <20% <25% <100% <20% <100% /GDP / / % GDP 2.8% % ( ) ( )

25 18% %--30%

26 3 21

27 3.1 Credit Rationing 80 Stigliz and Weiss

28 %

29 3. Loan-size Rationing Number-of-loan Rationing 50% ( %) < >

30 182 Neil Gregory and Stoyan Tener, The Financing of Private Enterprise in China Finance & Development, % 47.34% 54.82% %

31 % %

32 %

33 GDP 40% GDP % % 2.16% GDP 65.64% GDP

34 % % 5 11% 60% % 8.4% % 67.9% % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

35 % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% % % 4%

37 1% 15% 3.3 Yiting Li,

38 3-3-1 % GDP 54% % 33

39 3-3-2 /GDP /GDP / % % % GDP% % %

40 35

41 % %

42 STPT

43 GDP

44 % % 20%

47 x20 10x<20 5x<10 x<5 x x x<0.3 x< % 42

48 GDP% %

49 98.42% %

51 IMD 80 46

52 IMD IMD IMD IMD IMD IMD GDP 47

53 GDP IMD

56 IMD 51

57 20 52

58 1..S ,

59 18., G..S Douglas W. Diamond, 1991, Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.99, No Feder, G. 1983, On Exports and Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, 12, pp59-73, Mathieson, D.J 1980, Financial Reform and Stabilization Policy in a Developing Economy, Journal of Development Economics, 7(3), pp , Maxwell J. Fry, Money, Interest and Banking in Economic Development, The Johns Hopkins University Press, McKinnon, R.I 1973, Money and Capital in Economic Development, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C, Patrick H.T1966Financial Development and Economic Growth in 54

60 Underdeveloped CountriesEconomic Development and Cultural Change 14pp Philip Arestis & Victoria Chick, Finance, Development and Structural ChangePost-Keynesian Perspectives, Edward Elgar Press, Ross Levine & Sara Zervos, 1998, Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth, American Economic Review, Vol.88, No Yiting Li, 1998, Middlemen and Private Information, Journal of Monetary Economics, 42, pp

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