Recommending a Strategy

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1 The Role of Hong Kong in the Development of the Nation: Past, Present and Future Lawrence J. Lau 劉遵義 Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong And Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development, Emeritus, Stanford University Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong Hong Kong, 29 April 217 Tel: ; Fax: WebPages: *All opinions expressed herein are the author s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of the organisations with which the author is affiliated.

2 2 港交所中大陸公司的比重 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 百分比港交所中大陸公司的比重以市價總值衡量以上市公司數衡量

3 十億港元每年大陸企業和所有企業在港交所首次公開募股總額 5 每年大陸企業和所有企業在港交所首次公開募股總額 45 4 所有企業大陸企業

4 萬億美元萬億美元紐約倫敦和香港交易所的市值與日交易量, 萬億美元紐約倫敦和香港證券交易所的市值與日交易量, 萬億美元紐約證券交易所日交易量 ( 右軸 ) 倫敦證券交易所日交易量 ( 右軸 ) 香港證券交易所日交易量 ( 右軸 ) 紐約證券交易所市值倫敦證券交易所市值香港證券交易所市值

5 全球主要經濟體證券市場的市值份額變化全球主要经济体证券市场的市值份额变化东亚和南亚证交所市值份额美国证交所市值份额欧洲地区证交所市值份额 1 5

6 股票市值萬億美元日交易量萬億美元中國證券市場市值與日交易量, 萬億美元中國證券市場市值與日交易量, 萬億美元上海證券交易所日交易量 ( 右軸 ) 深圳證券交易所日交易量 ( 右軸 ) 香港證券交易所日交易量 ( 右軸 ) 上海證券交易所市值深圳證券交易所市值香港證券交易所市值

7 在港交所上市的大陸企業的比重 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 百分比在港交所上市的大陸企業的比重, 分別以市值, 交易額, 公司數量來衡量以市值衡量以上市公司數量衡量以交易額衡量

8 3/21 6/21 9/21 12/21 3/211 6/211 9/211 12/211 3/212 6/212 9/212 12/212 3/213 6/213 9/213 12/213 3/214 6/214 9/214 12/214 3/215 6/215 9/215 12/215 3/216 6/216 9/216 12/216 3/217 单位 : 十亿美元单位 : 百分比以人民币结算的中国跨境贸易 ( 单位 : 十亿美元百分比 ) 35 以人民币结算的中国跨境贸易 ( 单位 : 十亿美元百分比 ) 以人民币计价贸易规模 ( 左轴 ) 占全部跨境贸易比重 ( 右轴 ) 8

9 Distribution of World Trade Settlement Currencies versus World Trade, 21 % Distribution of World Trade Settlement Currencies versus World Trade, Selected Economies 4 Payments 35 Trade EUR USD GBP JPY AUD CAD CHF HKD SEK SGD THB NOK DKK NZD ZAR HUF MXN TRY PLN RUB CNY 9 Source: SWIFT Value Analyser. Trade (import/export) 21, in value., WTO working paper, Daiwa

10 美元欧元英镑日元加拿大元人民币瑞士法郎澳元港币泰铢瑞典克朗新加坡币挪威克朗波兰兹罗提南非兰特丹麦克朗马来西亚林吉特新西兰元墨西哥元土耳其里拉单位 : 百分比各经济体在全球贸易与其货币在全球贸易结算中比重 (217 年 2 月 ) 45 各贸易结算货币占比 (217 年 2 月 ) 各贸易结算货币占比 (217 年 2 月 ) 对应经济体贸易占全球比重 (215 年 )

11 单位 : 百分比单位 : 排名人民幣在全球結算貨幣中的比重和排名 ( 自 212 年 1 月 ) 人民币在全球结算货币中的比重和排名比重 ( 左轴 ) 排名 ( 右轴 )

12 2/24 8/24 2/25 8/25 2/26 8/26 2/27 8/27 2/28 8/28 2/29 8/29 2/21 8/21 2/211 8/211 2/212 8/212 2/213 8/213 2/214 8/214 2/215 8/215 2/216 8/216 2/217 单位 : 十亿人民币香港的人民幣存款規模 1,2 香港人民币存款规模 1,

13 Hong Kong as Part of the Pearl River Delta Metropolis 13

14 百萬香港及其周邊地區人數 ( 百萬 ) 12 除深圳外廣東地區香港及其周邊地區人口數 ( 百萬 ) 1 深圳澳門香港

15 十億美元香港及其周邊地區的實際 GDP, 按 216 年價格計算, 十億美元 1 香港及其周邊地區的實際 GDP, 按 216 年價格計算, 十億美元香港澳門除深圳外廣東地區深圳

16 香港及其周邊地區的實際人均 GDP, 按 216 年價格計算 16 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 美元香港及其周邊地區的實際人均 GDP, 按 216 年價格計算香港澳門除深圳外廣東地區深圳

17 按 216 年價格計算, 十億美元香港事實與預測的實際 GDP 及其增長率 ( 按 216 年價格計算, 十億美元 ) 香港實際的和預測的實際 GDP 及其增長率 ( 按 216 年價格計算, 十億美元 ) 香港實際 GDP 增長率 ( 右軸 ) 香港實際 GDP, 按 216 年價格計算 Percent

18 百萬人香港事實與預測的人口總數及其增長率 ( 百萬人 ) 1 香港實際的和預測的人口總數及其增長率 ( 百萬人 ) 1 9 香港年中人口總數增長率 ( 右軸 ) 香港年中人口總數 Percent

19 按 216 年價格計算, 千美元香港事實與預測的實際人均 GDP 及其增長率 ( 按 216 年價格計算, 千美元 ) 香港實際的和預測的實際人均 GDP 及其增長率 ( 按 216 年價格計算, 千美元 ) 香港實際人均 GDP 增長率 ( 右軸 ) 香港實際人均 GDP, 按 216 年價格計算 Percent

20 Concluding Remarks Hong Kong was indispensable to the initial success of the Mainland s economic reform and opening to the World. However, with the success of the Mainland economy, the fate of the Hong Kong economy is now inextricably intertwined with that of the Mainland. The Mainland is now critically important to the Hong Kong economy. If the Mainland economy prospers, the Hong Kong economy will prosper. If the Mainland economy slows, the Hong Kong economy will slow. 2

21 Concluding Remarks It is because of the strength of the Mainland economy that Hong Kong has been able to survive the current European sovereign debt crisis as well as the earlier global financial crisis, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis and the East Asian currency crisis relatively unscathed. The Individual Visit Scheme has been instrumental in lowering the unemployment rate of Hong Kong down to its current slightly above 3%. Hong Kong must try to take full advantage of its Mainland opportunities, such as those offered by CEPA, so that its economy can continue to grow, especially given the relatively weak recoveries of the United States and European economies. The Hong Kong domestic market alone is too small for innovation activities to be commercially successful. 21

22 Concluding Remarks The economies of Hong Kong and Guangdong are complementary to each other. What Hong Kong lacks, Guangdong can provide; and vice versa. Their economic cooperation can be win-win; it can benefit both places. Guangdong has a diversified manufacturing industrial base with light industry, heavy industry and high-technology industries. but is relatively weak in the higher education and research and development sectors. Hong Kong has little or no manufacturing industry any more, especially high-technology industry, but has world-class research universities to provide scientific and technological manpower and R&D. There is therefore room for specialisation and division of labor between Hong Kong and Guangdong, which can be win-win for all. Hong Kong should therefore intensify its economic cooperation with Guangdong (and Shenzhen). Guangdong is Hong Kong s natural economic hinterland. Hong Kong cannot compete with Shanghai if it is unable to hold on to Guangdong. 22

23 Concluding Remarks If Hong Kong were to become an international financial center for China, it must begin by trying to provide the firms and households in its potential hinterland (Guangdong and the Greater Pearl River Delta) with the best financial service possible, so that they do not need to go to Shanghai or develop their own international financial center(s). If Hong Kong cannot hold on to these potential customers, it can never compete with Shanghai. 23

24 Concluding Remarks Hong Kong should also capitalize on the opportunities provided by the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) Initiative. Hong Kong can also further develop into an international center for sukuk bonds (Islamic bonds) structured in such a way as to generate returns to investors without infringing Islamic law which prohibits pure interest payments as many Belt and Road countries are Islamic. The Government of the HKSAR is already actively promoting double-tax treaties with countries on the Belt and Road so as to facilitate investment by Hong Kong entities as well as subsidiaries of Chinese and multinational corporations established in Hong Kong to do OBOR related business in the countries concerned. 24

25 Concluding Remarks It is necessary to promote the freer flow of goods and services between Guangdong and Hong Kong and between the OBOR countries and Hong Kong. There should be a pilot programme for a Guangdong-Hong Kong Pilot Free Trade Zone. It is also necessary to promote the freer flow of people the simplification of entry/exit and customs formalities, the mutual selective recognition of academic degrees and professional qualifications. Finally, it is necessary to promote the financial cooperation between Guangdong and OBOR countries and Hong Kong and to facilitate the cross-border two-way flow of capital. 25

26 Concluding Remarks We have tried to suggest some feasible directions of significant potential in which the economy of Hong Kong can aspire to develop. The goals may appear ambitious, but in our opinion, they are all achievable with sufficient commitment and resolve. In diversifying its economy in these various directions, Hong Kong can also reduce the risks of over-dependence on any one particular sector. It is essential to try to make Hong Kong more competitive once again. This means trying to do something to the high price of land, and the resulting high office space and housing costs. Hong Kong indeed has the potential of surpassing both New York and London to become the leading international financial center in the world. However, the development of Hong Kong as an international hub for flows of people, goods and services, and capital is a long-term undertaking and will require the long-term commitment of the Government of the HKSAR, its citizens, and its public and private institutions. 26

27 Concluding Remarks Hong Kong must do its part in devising implementable plans and strategies and in addition seek assistance and support from the Central Government on the basis that these initiatives are winwin for both Hong Kong and the Mainland. It is up to Hong Kong to make itself indispensable once again, as it was during the early days of the Chinese economic reform and opening to the world. There is clearly still great potential for the economy of Hong Kong! It will require the united efforts of everyone in Hong Kong to fully realize this potential. Yes. Hong Kong CAN create yet another economic miracle! However, time is of the essence. The time to act is NOW. 27

Recommending a Strategy

Recommending a Strategy Currency Competition, Exchange Rate Regimes and Quantitative Easing (2) Lawrence J. Lau 劉遵義 Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Kwoh-Ting Li Professor