:? 8 ( 8 ), :, 8 12,,8,,,, : 8 8 8?,,,?, 8 ( 8 ), 8 ( 8 )? 8,, 8 8, 8, 8,, 8,,, 8,,, (price anomalies) : 8?,8 8? 8? 8,,8 8 ;,8 8 ( ) 3,, :610

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3 :? 8 ( 8 ), :, 8 12,,8,,,, : 8 8 8?,,,?, 8 ( 8 ), 8 ( 8 )? 8,, 8 8, 8, 8,, 8,,, 8,,, (price anomalies) : 8?,8 8? 8? 8,,8 8 ;,8 8 ( ) 3,, :610074, :jingmei600163 @163. com ;,, :610031, :fengyun600163 @163. com ( 07&ZD014) ( 08XFX022), 129

: Rozeff Kinney(1976) 1904 1974, Rozeff Kinney, ( ), (French,1980) (Ariel,1987) (Cadsby Ratner,1992) Sanjoy(1977) 1957 1971,, ( ) (Fama French,1992) ( ) (O Shaughnessy,1998),,, Banz (1981) Reinganum(1981) Lamoureux Sanger (1989), Saunders(1993),,,Hirshleifer Shumway(2001),, 26 ( ),. com, 10. com Raghavendra et al. (2000) Adam Oppenheimer (2006),,,, ( ), Rajen Mookerjee (1999) 1993 ; (2000) 1992 1998, (2002), (2005) 2004 4 13, 1998, (2002) 1995 1997, ;, (2004), (2007) 2001 2003 (2001) 1998 1999 ST, ST (2002) (2004) ST,,, (price clustering effect) :Philip Brown et al. (2002), 8, 4,Philip Brown Jason Mitchell (2008), A,8 4 ( 2 ), (2005) 1997 1 2004 12, 8 4 ( ) 8, 130

CSMAR, 1995 1 2005 12 569 A,,, ( ),, 1 115 2,, 10 40,,, 1,, (ST 3 ST ) ( ) ( ),,,, 10,, 0 0, 0 0, 1 1,, 8, ( = 0), 12, 12, 22 1 1 0 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 64 59 59 60 23 60 62 56 63 63 8, 8, 8 8 8, 8 8 8,, 8 8, 8 8,,,,,, (Beatty Welch,1996),, 8, 8 8,,,,,,,8, 8 1 :8 8,, 8, 8 ;,8, 8 8,? 8,,,,8 8,8 131

:, 8,, ( ), 8, 8 8, 8 8,,,8,8 8, 8 8, 2 : 8 8 ;,8 8, ( ) i ( = 0 ) pe i, :, p i, i, e i i pe i, = p i, e i (1), ;,, 200 59, A PE A PE = 1 n n pe i, (2) i = 1 (2) EXPE : EXA PE = A PE m - A PE^m (3),A PE m A PE^m m m ( ),,,, ar i, : ar i, = p i - p i, - 1 p i, - 1 - indx i - indx i, - 1 indx i, - 1 (4), indx i, indx i, - 1, AR : AR = 1 n n ar i, (5) i = 1, CAR : n CAR = AR (6) = 1, : EXCAR = CAR m - CAR^m (7), CAR m CAR^m m m 132

( ) 8 2 12 1 2 8 4 6 9 12 2 12 : 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 8 5717 5314 5110 5012 4814 4610 4312 4115 3917 3818 3713 3714 3612 8 4319 4116 3918 3817 3714 3613 3414 3314 3312 3217 3116 3112 3019 1318 1118 1112 1115 1110 917 818 811 615 611 517 612 513 0 4212 4213 4012 3817 3619 3516 3318 3312 3214 3211 3110 3111 3018 0 4518 4218 4111 4010 3817 3715 3515 3414 3411 3315 3215 3210 3116-316 - 015-019 - 113-118 - 119-117 - 112-117 - 114-115 - 019-018 1 4117 3811 3616 3516 3217 3010 2913 2918 3013 2817 2713 2713 2615 1 4517 4313 4115 4013 3911 3811 3610 3418 3413 3410 3219 3215 3211-410 - 512-419 - 417-614 - 811-617 - 510-410 - 513-516 - 512-516 2 4212 3817 3618 3617 3416 3416 3315 3217 3213 3015 3014 3110 3018 2 4517 4313 4115 4012 3910 3716 3516 3415 3411 3317 3215 3210 3116-316 - 416-417 - 315-414 - 310-211 - 118-118 - 312-211 - 110-018 3 4516 3814 3811 3812 3715 3616 3416 3313 3311 3419 3410 3219 3310 3 4513 4312 4113 4010 3816 3714 3514 3414 3410 3312 3211 3118 3113 013-418 - 312-118 - 111-018 - 018-111 - 019-013 119 111 117 4 2819 2511 2510 2515 2416 2419 2716 2716 2713 2718 2716 2610 2415 4 4517 4313 4115 4013 3819 3717 3517 3416 3412 3316 3215 3212 3118-1618 - 1812-1615 - 1418-1413 - 1218 811-710 - 619-318 - 419-612 - 713 5 4212 4019 3913 3713 3618 3619 3419 3318 3319 3217 3111 2917 3015 5 4517 4310 4112 4011 3817 3713 3514 3413 3410 3314 3214 3212 3116-015 - 211-119 - 218-119 - 014-015 - 015-011 - 017-113 - 215-111 6 5118 4819 4715 4610 4419 4219 3813 3618 3613 3611 3519 3517 3413 6 4416 4210 4012 3910 3717 3617 3510 3410 3316 3310 3118 3115 3112 712 619 713 710 712 612 313 218 217 311 417 412 311 7 4015 3818 3615 3417 3412 3313 3114 3011 2917 2818 2814 2814 2816 7 4519 4312 4114 4014 3910 3718 3518 3417 3414 3319 3217 3213 3118-514 - 414-510 - 517-418 - 415-414 - 416-417 - 511-413 - 319-312 9 4813 4911 4618 4418 4415 4311 4019 3913 3912 3819 3519 3511 3419 9 4510 4119 4012 3911 3717 3616 3416 3317 3313 3217 3119 3115 3111 313 712 616 517 618 615 613 516 519 612 410 316 318 2 1 2 :, ( 2 1), 12,8 6 9, 4, 8,6 9, 4, 8 4, 12, 8, 4,, 133

: 1 8 4 6 9 2 8 4 6 9,8,6 9,,,4,, ( 2, 2),8 0 1 5 6 12 ;2 3 4 7 9,8 8 12,, 1 8,, 1 8 8,, 8 8, 8, 8, 12 5 12,,, 8,8,,, 8, 8, 8, 8 8 8,,, 8 10 3,, ( ),, :, 1,, ( Penman,1992 ;,2007),, 100 % - 100 %, (,2003), (,2005),, (,2001 ;,2003) 1995 2005, ( ), 134 :

pe = + b 1 End8 + b 2 Rf + b 3 Grw + b 4 L nscl + b 5 Ind + (8), End8, 8 1, 0 ; Rf ; Grw ; Scl ; Ind, 1, 0, : Indx 0,, ; Trnv 0,,, : pe 0 = + b 1 End8 + b 2 Rf 0 + b 3 Grw + b 4 L nscl + b 5 Ind + b 6 Indx 0 + b 7 Trnv 0 + (9) 3 4 3,,, End8, t t t, End8,8, 12, 12,, End8, t t 11, End8, 8 11, 4, 5 %, 7,,, ( ) 8 5 12 3 4 8 4 6 9 12 5 3 4 :, ( 5, 3),,,8 6,4 9,, ( 9 5,5 ) 12,,, ( 8 5 6),,8 12 8 ( 0 3 4 7), 4, 8,,, ; 2 8 8, 12 8, ( 2, 4), 8 6 9 4, 12, 0,,,,8 6,4 9 135

: 3 Mon ( Intercept) End8 Rf Grw LnScl Ind Indx 0 Trnv 0 Adj. R 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12-13110 31313 13180 01005-31663 51283-51633 331590-31566 333 11806 3 31585 333 01003-61047 333 41292 333-01139 61543 333 01366-31421 333 11827 3 21736 33 01026-51788 333 41009 333-01865 61685 333 441165 81533 101691 141529 141070 101007 01539 21039 33 0115 41764 333 01065 31244 333 01073 01432 21339 33 01153 41860 333-01201 41577 333 1011461 91420-461453 71232-01232 81416 11937 21317 33-11101 31540 333-01234 3 21866 333 01044 119408 21884 333-11222 21969 333-01219 41175 333 1131891 91189-571553 51747 61220 81170 21460 3 21371 33-11645 31642 333 21254 3 21881 333 01044 21461 3 31106 333-11679 21507 33 21473 33 41003 333 1321849 91632-731487 - 01922-012758 71597 31076 333 21575 333-21365 33-01744 - 0295 2177 333 01043 216723 33 31411 333-21028 3-01436 - 01288 41493 333 1281021 111449-671245 - 11058-01271 61383 31036 333 31062 333-21277 33-01865 - 01439 21344 33 01044 21537 33 21860 33-11816 - 01309-01301 41720 333 1201782 71237-661521 - 01782-01399 61130 31521 333 21292 33-21897 333-01751 - 01690 21605 333 01042 31078 33 21310 33-21175 3-01351 - 01527 41745 333 1441741 71205-821842 - 11140-016549 41982 41569 333 21501 333-41068 333-11161 - 11145 21309 33 01053 41019 333 21264 33-31209 333-01559 - 01901 41374 333 1351077 51944-711775 - 11286-01685 51462 41421 333 21174 33-31685 333-11362 - 11113 21653 333 01141 316999 333 21145 33-21603 33-01877 - 01992 41223 333 1251059 51981-581512 - 012460-018917 51236 41152 333 21158 33-21990 33-01516 - 11963 3 21516 33 01169 31556 333 215377 33-119839 3-01369 - 11346 41420 333 1051207 61860-551915 - 01707-01375 71273 31023 333 21191 33-21502 33-01651 - 01638 31078 333 01101 21850 333 21618 333-11687 - 01686-01568 41505 333 871088 61388-391384 - 01698-01315 61969 21267 33 11865 3-11604 - 01594-01673 21709 333 01062 21689 333 21376 33-11572 - 01773-01485 41569 33 791825 41937-351889 - 01517-01242 81449 11832 11295-11273 - 01395-01419 21952 333 01041 21534 33 11703-11390 01104-01386 41430 333 : 3 33 333 10 % 5 % 1 % ( ) t, t 136

4 8 12 BP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 BP 9133 5124 7122 8126 9137 8124 7134 1210 1611 9171 9178 8147 8181 p2value 0116 0139 0120 0114 0109 0114 0120 0103 0101 0108 0108 0113 0112 5 12 : % 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 8 11914-2122 - 3171-4190 - 5102-3145 - 4189-5160 - 7178-7199 - 7196-9148 - 8145 8 8 10614-1169 - 3106-3165 - 4131-4132 - 3195-4124 - 4135-4191 - 5133-5137 - 4192 1310-0153 - 0165-1124 - 0171 0187-0193 - 1136-3143 - 3108-2163 - 4111-3154 0 9916 0178-0101 1113-0128 - 0123 0127 0124-0162 0133-0163 - 0112 0128 0 0 10714-2107 - 3153-4142 - 4192-4173 - 4160-4198 - 5124-5196 - 6125-6154 - 6101-1018 2185 3152 5155 4164 4150 4187 5122 4162 6129 5163 6142 6129 1 10017-0133 - 3165-4139 - 5109-4108 - 3152-3125 - 2135-3183 - 5170-5127 - 5126 1 1 10712-1192 - 3108-3173 - 4132-4125 - 4113-4153 - 5100-5142 - 5162-5189 - 5131-615 1159-0125 - 0166-0177 0117 0161 1128 2165 1160-0108 0162 0105 2 10115-2172 - 5127-5131 - 5140-5117 - 5107-6132 - 8114-1010 - 1015-9183 - 9169 2 2 10711-1164 - 2189-3162 - 4128-4112 - 3194-4117 - 4134-4171 - 5106-5136 - 4181-516 - 1108-2138 - 1169-1112 - 1105-1113 - 2115-3180 - 133-5144 - 4147-4189 3 9614-3129 - 4187-5191 - 6168-6162 - 5174-7172 - 8171-7133 - 8102-6152 - 4169 3 3 10718-1157 - 2193-3154 - 4112-3195 - 3186-4100 - 4126-5101 - 5134-5174 - 5138-1114 - 1172-1194 - 2137-2156 - 2168-1187 - 3172-4145 - 2132-2168 - 0178 0169 4 7917-7147 - 7146-6119 - 5192-3156 0146 1105-0103 - 1191-0197 - 1119-0169 4 4 10717-1151 - 2195-3169 - 4133-4126 - 4125-4162 - 4192-5139 - 5182-5176 - 5112-28 - 5196-4151 - 2149-1160 0170 4171 5168 4190 3149 4185 4158 4143 5 11014-1175 - 3110-5117 - 6192-5166 - 5125-6106 - 6164-9101 - 9177-1117 - 9191 5 5 10717-1175 - 3114-3163 - 4109-4106 - 3192-4120 - 4150-4181 - 5113-5112 - 4176 217 0100 0103-1154 - 2183-1161 - 1134-1186 - 2114-4120 - 4164-6163 - 5115 6 11615-1189 - 3128-3197 - 4173-4134 - 4110-4153 - 4189-5151 - 5198-6138 - 5156 6 6 10513-0167 - 2101-2138 - 1174-3135 - 3179-3133 - 3143-3126 - 2180-1135 - 3129 1112-1122 - 1127-1159 - 2198-0199 - 0130-1119 - 1146-2124 - 3117-5103 - 2127 7 10218-1194 - 2136-4167 - 3174-5153 - 5164-6143 - 5189-6105 - 4136-3145 - 1181 7 7 10710-1173 - 3122-3170 - 4147-4109 - 3189-4117 - 4160-5117 - 5176-6107 - 5168-412 - 0121 0186-0197 0173-1144 - 1176-2125 - 1129-0188 1140 2162 3187 9 10413-1165 - 1187-2117 - 4146-4162 - 4198-3168 - 1133-2110 - 3117-4152 - 3153 9 9 10618-1176 - 3129-3199 - 4138-4117 - 3194-4148 - 5115-5164 - 5192-5198 - 5152-215 0111 1142 1182-0107 - 1045-1104 0180 3182 3154 2176 1146 2101, 2 8 8,, 8 8,8 8, 8, 12,8,, 8, 137

: 3 8 4 6 9 8 8 ( ) 4 8 4 6 9, ( 2007 ;, 2006), Ritter (1991) Ritter,,, (,,2007 ;,2002 ;,2001) Ritter,,, Ritter,Ritter, (,2007),,,, : ar = + c 1 End8 + c 2 PB + c 3 L nscl + c 4 Ind + c 5 Unwrt + (10), ar ; PB ; Unmrt, 10 1, 0 ; (8),,,,, : ar 0 = 0 + c 1 End8 + c 2 PB 0 + c 3 L nscl + c 4 Ind + c 5 Unwrt + c 6 Trnv 0 + (11) 6 7 6,, 0101, End8, t t, 8, 8 12,,End8,End8, 8 8 8, 8,,8, 8 8 8,,End8, 8, 7, 5 %, 1 2 6,,, 138

6 8 ( Intercept) End8 scl Ind Unwrt pb Trnv adj1r 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 7 11785 01055-01098 01084 01100 01152 101718 333 21515 333-12147 333 51122 333 01692 211393 333 121905 333 01766 101623 333 21333 333-12142 333 41699 333 01579 333 201992 333 131263 333-01215 - 01008 01030 01006-01012 01013-11614 - 01451 51944 333 01921-01864 11097-31065 33 01004 21323 33-01377 01331 51717-01071 - 01009-01017 - 01006-01012 01013 01087-01769 - 01703-41931 333-11388 - 11345 11579 01043-012330 - 01691-01345 - 01416 11887 3155 333-01071 - 01010 01001-01002 01012 01008-01016 - 01773 01424-01442 11353 01956 01028-01936 01324 01352-11190 11774 41666 333-01023 01003 01002 01002 01011 01006-01231 01249 01473 01253 01280 01757-111576 01596 01583 01284 11549 41181 01103-01028 - 01006-01005 - 01001-01003 01036 11141-21315 - 21694 333-11246 - 011833-01434 01016 113935-21046 - 11537-11388 - 01098 21542 33-010075 - 01015-010008 - 01005-01007 01009-01811 - 11154 015673-11115 - 010734 11164 01024-010991 - 01943-01211 - 11351-01078 31592 333 01038 01001-01001 - 01003-01007 01004 01412 01053 01376-01757 - 01802 01526 01020-010661 01807-01382 - 01014 11219 3156 333-01062 - 01003 010031 01001 01005 01008-111234 - 0126 01105 01273 01584 01976 01033-113656 - 016703 018868 014690 017453 41321 333-010047 - 01001 01017-01004 01006 01006-010451 - 01123 01597-01992 01377 01753-010653 - 01162-015205 - 011999 018951 515495-01119 - 01009 01019 01004-01015 - 01008 01062-11317 - 01676 01647 01888-11658 3-11044 01063-110970 - 01699 01648-21197 3-11065 61292 333-01066 01009 010018 01002 010058 01006-01714 01705 016048 01347 01568 01697 01034-01852 01742 01484 01258 01860 41092 333 01067-01033 - 010004-01011 010010 010031 0178-21886 333-01306 - 11786 11178 01361 010903-21607 333-01097 - 11401 01149 11226 8 12 BP 01016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 F 1117 1176 1107 0129 0141 1119 2113 1123 0139 2150 0193 0169 p2value 0132 0110 0138 0194 0188 0131 0105 3 0129 0189 0102 33 0147 0165 139

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