I 755-22626592 shaozq@pasc.com.cn 28 7 21 755-22627185 tongcd@pasc.com.cn 5.2%-5.5% 11.5%-12% 6%-6.8% 7.17% 7.67% 3% 5 1 9.3%-18.9% 16.9%-24.8% 23.1 11.8 14.2 A 32 15 19 22 2 1-13 4 6 8.4% 46% 21% 28 EV NBV 26 11.5% 5.5% 32 9.52 26 26 32 41 11.5% 5%-5.5% 43 1 1.25 64 12 76 15 2 12% 4.5%-5.2% 3 4.5 19 6 25 19 28-7-18 EV
... 3... 3 2.1... 3 2.2... 4... 6 3.1... 6 3.2... 8... 14 4.1... 14 4.2... 14 4.3... 16... 18 5.1... 18 5.2... 2... 21 2/25
7 57-68 PE 6-13 PB 5.6-8.4 P/EV 16-156 7 8 17-2 PE 1.7-3.2 PB 2.1-2.3 P/EV 16.4-23.5 8 1 PE-A 2 PB-A 75. 13.5 7. 12.5 65. 11.5 6. 55. 5. 17.5 67.4 16.8 68.4 2.3 57. 1.5 9.5 8.5 3.24 12.92 2.63 1.12 1.68 6.11 45. 7.5 4. 6.5 35. 5.5 3. 4.5 25. 3.5 2. 2.5 15. 27 2 27 4 27 6 27 8 27 1 27 12 28 2 28 4 28 6 1.5 27 2 27 4 27 6 27 8 27 1 27 12 28 2 28 4 28 6 EPS BVPS : 3 P/EV-A 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2.3 8.4 2. 7.1 2.1 5.6 27 1 27 3 27 5 27 7 27 9 27 11 28 1 28 3 28 5 28 7 4 -A 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 23.5 155.8 16.4 116.7 19.3 16. 27 1 27 3 27 5 27 7 27 9 27 11 28 1 28 3 28 5 28 7 EV : 2.1 3/25
4.2.2 5 PE PB DCF EVA P/EV EV ROE EV 2.2 2.2.1 2 6-7 2.2.2 = + = * = = * * 4/25
6 NBM FYP NBV + NBV/FYP + FYP NBV NBM NBV/FYP 7 /% /% 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 NBV/FYP 9.99% 23.39% 8.82% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1.8% 46.9% 11.1% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% 27 2.2.3 + + 5/25
8 + * + - 3.1 3.1.1 3.1.2 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.46%-7.67% 11.5% 11.5% 12% 7%-8% 7.17% 7.67% 3% 5 1 9.3%-18.9% 16.9%-24.8% 23.1 11.8 14.2 6/25
9 11.5% 11.5% 12% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 7 4.33% 4.33% 4.33% - 7.17% 7.17% 7.67% - 6% 6% 6.8% 1 China HK India Japan Korea Singapore Taiwan UK 11.75% 5.7% 15.75% 5.1% 9.7% 6.4% 9.1% 7.3% 11.75% 6% 15.75% 5.1% 9.7% 6.8% 9.8% 7.85% 4% 2.25% 5% % 2.75% 1.75% 2.25% 3.2% 8.25% 4.1% 9.25% 2% 5.8% 4.25% 5.5% 4.55% 8.1% 9.3% 8.55% - 3.5% 1.6% 6.5% 3.1% 3.9% 2.15% 3.6% 2.8% 11 Aviva AXA Group Standard Life Allianz UK US France US UK Europe Euro China 7.3% 6.7% 7.7% 7.57% 7.33% 6.45% 7.95% 8.25% / 4.6% 4.% 4.58% 4.33% 4.35% 4.65% 5.% 7.4% 5.56% 7.6% 7.% 8.% 9.% 7.58% 7.33% 8.35% 8.65% 6.6% 6.5% 7.5% 6.58% 6.33% 5.22% 5.58% 5.28% 6.9% 3.5% 3.% 2.% 2.6% - 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.1% 3.6% 3.6% - 1.8%.7% 7/25
12 27 5 1 22.3% 24.8% 18.9% 18.8% 16.9% 5.4% 9.3% 13.6% 12.9% 11.9% 6.8% 9.3% 9.5% 11.7% 11.8% 3.7% 4.6% 5.2% 3.2 PE 4 6 8 3.2.1 3.2.2 GDP GDP S GDP GDP1-1 GDP1-2 S 27 1.8% 44 4.2% 1922 8 GDP 1.5 GDP 212 3% 1136 27 71% 8.7% 15 8/25
13 S SIGMA 14 S S -21 S -26 25 2 15 1 5 GDP 21 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 GDP 25 2 15 1 5 GDP 26 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 GDP CEIC 15-27 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % SIGMA 9/25
16 22 23 24 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 211E 212E 2275 311 3228 3697 4132 538 753 8693 1584 1286 154 59.8% 32.4% 7.2% 14.5% 11.8% 21.9% 4.% 23.3% 21.8% 21.% 2.3% GDP 12333 135823 159878 183868 211923 24953 299436 345849 395997 451436 51238 GDP 9.7% 12.9% 17.7% 15.% 15.3% 17.7% 2.% 15.5% 14.5% 14.% 13.5% GDP 9.1% 1.% 1.1% 1.4% 11.6% 11.9% 1.% 9.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% GDP.6% 2.9% 7.6% 4.6% 3.7% 5.8% 1.% 6.% 6.% 5.5% 5.% 128453 129227 129988 13756 131448 132129 132813 1335 134191 134884 135581.6%.6%.6%.6%.5%.5%.5%.5%.5%.5%.5% GDP 9,368 1,51 12,299 14,62 16,122 18,885 22,546 25,96 29,51 33,468 37,791 GDP 6.14 2.51.41.97.77 1.24 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 177 233 248 283 314 381 531 651 789 949 1,136 1.9% 2.2% 2.% 2.% 1.9% 2.% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 3.% 1 8 GDP 9.8% 2 21 13.6 17 1% 9% 8% 1945, 11.5% 26, 23.87% 7% 6% 5% 4% 1945, 88.95% 26, 51.19% 3% 2% 1% 26, 25.23% % 1855 1858 1861 1864 1867 187 1873 1876 1879 1882 1885 1888 1891 1894 1897 19 193 196 199 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 193 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 196 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 / / 18 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 9.2% 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 283 285 CIRC 1/25
3.2.3 1994 24 1 4% 8% 28 6 63.7% 23 19 1 SIGMA 2 2612 2712 281 282 283 284 285 286 45.3% 39.7% 4.2% 41.4% 44.3% 44.2% 43.3% 42.2% 17.% 16.% 14.2% 13.2% 12.% 12.1% 12.7% 12.5% 9.3% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 9.9% 9.6% 9.4% 9.% 71.6% 66.% 65.1% 65.3% 66.1% 65.9% 65.4% 63.7% 94.1% 92.% 93.5% 94.3% 94.8% 94.9% 95.% NA 5.9% 8.% 6.5% 5.7% 5.2% 5.1% 5.% NA CIRC 11/25
21 NBV/FYP 25% 2% 15% 1% 14.3% 17.% 19.3% 23.4% 2.8% 9.32% 9.99% 5% 6.7% 7.21% 9.2% 8.8% % 23 24 25 26 27 3.2.4 28 28 6 1 5 2 22 281 282 283 284 285 286 5.% 6.5% 6.5% 5.85% 5.% 4.9% 5.25% 5.25% 5.5% 5.5% 5.75% 5.75% 5.% 5.% 5.% 5.% 5.% 5.% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.68% 5.68% 5.68% 5.68% 5.68% 5.56% 5.88% 5.88% 5.58% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% ( ) 5.66% 5.66% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.35% 27 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.55% 4.% 4.% 4.% 4.% 4.% 4.% 4.8% 4.8% 5.% 5.% 5.% 5.% 3.2.5 A 32 15 19 22 2 1-13 3-43 5.1 12/25
23 29-213 214-218 219-223 32 11.5% 16.2% 15.3% 15% 15% 15% 13% 1% 3% 43 11.5% 24% 21% 2% 2% 2% 15% 1% 3% 3 12% 17.2% 15% 15% 15% 15% 13% 1% 3% 24 24 25 26 27 Prudential Plc GBP 752 869 139 1215 17.3% Legal and General Plc GBP 353 38 479 468 9.9% Aegon NV EUR 489 55 775 927 23.8% Allianz SE-REG EUR 611 663 982 177 2.8% Ing EUR 632 85 87 1,113 2.8% CNY 3913 4539 5132 7187 22.5% CNY 654 7489 1481 1247 22.8% CNY 24 378 88.6% 6-7 4-7 25 26 CEA 13/25
27 7 6 5 4 3 11.8% 11.% 7.5% 18.4% 16.7% 6.3% 9.8% 4.6% 2% 15% 1% 5% 2 1-5.5% 1.% -.1% % -5% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Premium (Euro billion) Growth rate (Inflation-adjusted) CEA -1% 4.1 28 Statutory Balance Sheet EV IFRS Balance Sheet Assets not backing Liabilities (BV) Stat. Equity EV-NAV IFRS Equity Assets Backing IFRS-equity IFRS Equity Assets backing Liabilities (BV) Stat. Liabilities EV-VIF IFRS-VIF Assets Backing IFRS- Liabilities IFRS Liabilities 4.2 4.2.1 14/25
29 A 8 7 6 Price(L) Mean Estimate EPS(R) 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 16 14 12 Price(L) Mean Estimate EPS(R) 3. 2.5 55 45 Price(L) Mean Estimate EPS(R) 1.2 1.1 5 1.2 1 2. 35 1. 4 3 1..8 8 6 1.5 25.9 2.6.4 4 1. 15.8 1.2 2 5.7. 27 4 27 6 27 8 27 1 27 12 28 2 28 4 28 6.5 27 2 27 5 27 8 27 11 28 2 28 5-5.6 27 12 28 1 28 2 28 3 28 4 28 5 28 6 : 3 AIG AXA ALLIANZ 8 Price (L) Mean Estimate (R) 8 33 Price (L) Mean Estimate 3.1 18 Price (L) Mean Estimate 19.5 7 6 5 4 7 6 5 4 31 29 27 25 23 21 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 17 16 15 14 13 19 18.5 18 17.5 17 16.5 3 AIG 3 19 17 AXA 2.6 12 11 ALLIANZ 16 15.5 2 2 27 1 27 4 27 7 27 1 28 1 28 4 28 7 15 2.5 27 1 27 4 27 7 27 1 28 1 28 4 28 7 1 15 27 1 27 4 27 7 27 1 28 1 28 4 28 7 : 4.2.2 45 1 45 ROE ROA 15/25
31 / / / / 32 45 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 8.3 8. % 8.9 7.7 5.4 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 4.8 6.71 1.34.2 6.6 6.3 6.6 5.9 5.3 2. 18. 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 17.3 14.9 15.7 ROE ROE % 13.6 8.2 4.6 12.5 4.3.34 6.1 11.8 14.1 15.4 15.9 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. 1.66 1.3 1.42 1.27 ROA ROA % 1. 1.11.31.28.71.75.79.94 1.8 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1.32 4.3 4.3.1 EEV 33 16/25
34 4.3.2 7 25 65 2.8 2.3 4.3.3 NBV 35 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 =NBV+ = + -1 NBV -2-3 17/25
36 24 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 25 2 15 1 5 =NBV+ = + -5 NBV -1-15 -2 37 26 27H 27 28E 29E 21E 2, 15, =NBV+ = + 1, 5, -5, NBV -1, 38 / 26 27 28E 26 27 28E 26 27 28E NBV 1481 1247 14698 6,222 7,88 9167 2,176 3,15 3,871 3,116 51,923-23525 3,399 11,658-15444 5,878 15,271-5,515 1,615 1,75 1455 447 1,4 545-1,155-944 -9 4,731 52,998-227 3,846 12,662-149 4,723 14,327-6,415 15,212 65,45-7372 1,68 2,542-5733 6,899 17,342-2543 327.59% 14.3% 151.37% NBV.37.43.52.85 1.7 1.25.28.39.5.54 2.3 -.26 1.37 2.8 -.78.896 2.25 -.33 5.1 32 15 19.4% 46% 21% 18/25
39 EV NBV 262797 14698 32.1 734762 734762 26 73865 9167 43.1 469254 8842 557656 76 29225 3871 3. 145249 4622 191271 25 28 EV 4 28 / 196 9448 99% 469254 64 84% 2XPB 384 742 768 99% 7536 1 1% 2.5XPB 89 1465 2225 9% 18211 2 3% 2XPB 376 746 752 86% 6475 1 1% 1XPB 56179 3147 56179 1% 56179 8 1% 8842 12 16% 557656 76 1.% 194 545 3954 41 28 / 8 11476 97.83% 11227 5.9% 18397 97.83% 17998 9.4% 29873 97.83% 29225 118598 97.83% 11624 6.7% 148471 97.83% 145249 75.9% 734 98.14% 72 82 98.14% 848 2XPB 1641 98.14% 1696 8.4% 29,926 1% 29926 (1XPB) 29,926 1% 29926 15.6% 191271 1.% 24.8 19/25
42 / 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 483262 55675 63238 73726 777215 8573 924191 99768 299766 345599 391432 437265 48398 528931 574764 62597 133312 152667 17222 191377 21732 2387 249442 268797 17 2 22 25 27 3 33 35 41 47 53 6 66 72 78 84 17 2 22 25 27 3 32 35 5.2 43 27 /% % 25 2 15 1 5 / 82.4% 81.1% 1% 8% 6% 46.% 4% 2% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % % % 95.% 9.% 85.% 8.% 75.% 7.% 13/14 25/26 6.% 4.2% 5.% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 12 1 8 6 4 2 434 APE 549 2285 24/26 13/25 2/25
44 EV P/B P/E P/EV 26 73264 167795 22229 262797 4.4 32.9 2.8 41 31659 89773 1555 14498 3.4 2. 2.1 2 15689 5129 6499 71884 2.9 23.2 2.1 EV EV 28 ; 45 45 %/ 3. 28. 26. 24. 22. 2. 18. 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 45 -A -H -A -H -A % 1.3 1.8 ROE.9 1.4 7PB 8PB 7PE 8PE 9PE 7ROE 8ROE 9ROE 7ROA 28-7-1 8 9 46 45 PE 47 45 PB 25. PE 3. PB 2. 15. 1. 16. 18.7 16.4 16.2 19.4 12.3 15.2 13. 13.6 15.3 14.6 2.5 2. 1.5 1. 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2. 5. 15.5 2.19.14.5 1.9.33.17. 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27. 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 21/25
48 P/EV 3 (million GBP) EV(million GBP) /EV(X) 2.9 P/EV:(1.1,2.9) 3. 25 2.4 2.4 2.5 2 2.1 1.9 2. 15 1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 1. 5.5 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27. 49 = + = + + - = - = + = - = = - = + + + + - = + = * + + 22/25
5 + * 23/25
& 1 1 7.8 1-5 < > 24/25
6 2% 6 1% 2% 6 1% 6 1% ( ) ( ) 28 51829 48866338 755 82449257