(601717) 2010 7 14 18.00 ~ 24.00 RMB 00.00 ~ 00.00 RMB 80 2008 25 70 100 60 10 5-8 www.zzmj.com / 38.8% 35-40 / 2004 ( ) 700 A ( ) 140 B/H ( ) A ( ) () 2.23 (%) 40.2 18-24 2010-2012 1.20 1.421.62 2010 15-20 18-24 S1060108041125 0755-22627084 Yeguoji001@pingan.com.cn S1060210050002 13764118553 Zhangwei912@pingan.com.cn 021-62078329 Liuhaibo106@pingan.com.cn 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 3722.3 5160.3 5831.1 6997.3 8536.8 YoY(%) 57.85 38.63 13.00 20.00 22.00 481.0 630.4 839.7 991.8 1134.9 YoY(%) 136.24 31.06 33.20 18.11 14.43 (%) 24.70 26.50 26.00 25.00 24.70 (%) 12.22 14.40 14.17 13.29 12.22 ROE(%) 42.14 15.27 15.53 15.37 42.14 EPS( /) 0.90 1.20 1.42 1.62 0.90 P/E() P/B()
...2...3 1.1....3 1.2. 80...3 1.3....4 1.4. 38.8%....5...5...7...9 2/10
1.1. 7 50% 60% 90% 45-54% 20062007 2008 27%23%25% 70 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 26.9% 22.8% 24.6% 0% 2006 A 2007A 2008A 1.2. 80 80% 47.9% 3/10
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 359.37 873.93 1124.84 682.53 1560.57 1479.24 1,097.59 2,124.33 1,938.38 2007A 2008A 2009A 1.3. 40% JOY Bucyrus 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 2007A 2008A 2009A 19% 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% JOY Bucyrus 2007A 2008A 2009A 4/10
1.4. 38.8%. 5 2.86 51.0% 2.72 38.8% 0.83 14.9% 0.83 11.9% 0.28 5.1% 0.28 4.1% : 2003 2003 2004-2009 9.5% 1989-2003 3.6% 9.5% 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 1989A 1990A 1991A 1992A 1993A 1994A 1995A 1996A 1997A 1998A 1999A 2000A 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2004 2004-2009 58% 5/10
2004 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 257.5% 68.4% 27.2% 25.3% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% 1990A 1992A 1994A 1996A 1998A 2000A 2002A 2004A 2006A 2008A 2004-2008 58%69% 10 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2001 50% 2009 60% 2001-2007 2008 6/10
2001-2009 160.0% 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 2000A 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A wind 68 810 5000 95% 60% 35-40% 2004-2009 7/10
2004 38.95% 24.75% 36.31% 2005 46.75% 20.40% 32.85% 2006 48.71% 21.34% 29.95% 2007 49.76% 24.72% 25.52% 2008 50.46% 27.59% 21.95% 2010 75.00% 2015 80.00% 5-8 2004 10% 7-8 % 70% 2005 1500 2008 5000 2012-2015 12000-15000 2008 268.16 8/10
2010-2015 22% 25% 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2009 55 2009 31 2010 25 201020112012 1.21.421.62 2010 15 2010 15-20 18-24 18-24 () 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 11.64 14.40 12.50 10.15 7.68 21.05 22.51 15.00 11.79 9.40 18.5 13.75 10.97 8.54 : wind 9/10
: : 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 4144 7443 8777 10262 5160 5831 6997 8537 1259 4073 4113 3800 3886 4286 5178 6403 1002 1341 1609 1963 26 17 21 26 45 146 175 213 139 157 189 230 207 150 181 224 308 348 417 509 1075 1500 1812 2241 7-8 -25-23 557 233 886 1820 37 0 0 0 609 1717 1925 2314 0 0 0 0 17 18 18 18 1 0 0 0 356 1524 1745 2142 760 1030 1217 1392 164 159 154 149 16 0 0 0 72 16 8 4 3 0 0 0 4753 9160 10702 12576 773 1030 1217 1392 2823 3223 3874 4735 126 170 201 230 100 0 0 0 647 860 1016 1163 630 694 839 1037 16 21 24 28 2093 2529 3035 3698 630 840 992 1135 370 353 333 323 EBITDA 767 1076 1284 1481 273 273 273 273 EPS 0.90 1.20 1.42 1.62 97 80 60 50 3193 3576 4207 5058 64 84 109 136 560 700 700 700 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 28 3080 3080 3080 909 1720 2607 3602 % 38.6% 13.0% 20.0% 22.0% 1496 5500 6387 7381 % 76.3% 35.6% 18.1% 14.4% 4753 9160 10702 12576 %31.1% 33.2% 18.1% 14.4% % 24.7% 26.5% 26.0% 25.0% : % 12.2% 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E ROE(%) 42.1% 541 936 420 304 ROIC(%) 103.4% 48.4% 37.8% 28.8% 647 860 1016 1163 0 53 91 112 % 67.2% 39.0% 39.3% 40.2% 7-8 -25-23 % 11.68% 7.63% 6.49% 5.40% -1 0 0 0 1.47 2.31 2.27 2.17 0-25 -686-978 1.09 1.84 1.80 1.69-111 55 23 31-213 -1189-300 -500 1.22 0.84 0.70 0.73 238 1200 300 500 6 5 4 4-16 -11 0 0 7.01 6.47 6.75 6.83 9 0 0 0-41 3068-80 -117 0.90 1.20 1.42 1.62-45 -100 0 0 0.77 1.34 0.60 0.43 223 0 0 0 2.14 7.86 9.12 10.54 0 140 0 0 6 3052 0 0 P/E -225-24 -80-117 P/B 288 2814 40-313 EV/EBITDA 10/10
: 6 300 20% 6 300 10%20% 6 300 10% 6 300 10% : 6 300 10% 6 300 5%10% 6 300 5% 6 300 5% 2010 8 518048 4008866338 (0755) 8244 9257