3 :, CHIP 1988 1995 2002,,,, ;,, ;, :,,,,,,,,, 312 %, 5 (,2006),,,,,, (Chinese Household Income Project,CHIP) 1988 1995, 0134 0142 ( Khan and Riskin, 1998) Benjamin et al (2005),1987 2001, 0132 0137,,,,,???,, 3,, :100875, ( IZA) ;,, :100872, ( IZA), :zhao @iza. org (CHIP), ( IZA), 60 10 % 65 7 %, 2005 13 % 9 %( (2005) 427 ), inequality, 85
:,,,, :,,,,,,,,,, Slesnick (1991) Culter Katz (1992),,,,,, ;, ( Friedman,1957) (Moligdiani,1950),,,, 1 ( )Π (World Bank,2000), 1988 1995 2002 ( CHIP 1988 1995 2002 ),,,,,,, Deaton Paxson (1994), (Friedman,1957),, (martingale) (Hall,1978), c i, t +1 = c i, t + i, t +1 (1), i i, t t + 1 t t + 1, t + 1, i t, (1994) (1999) (2008) (2003) Jalan Ravallion(1998) Whalley Yue (2006),Ravallion Chen (2007),,,,,, Deaton (1997),,,Giles Yoo (2007),, 10 %,,Ohtake Sato (1998),, 86
,, var ( c i +1 ) = var ( c i ) + t +1 (2), t + 1 t + 1, i,, var ( c T ) = var ( c 0 ) + T t = 1 t (3) (3), t, ( ),,,,,,,, Deaton Paxson (1995),,,,,,,,,,,, Lam (1992),, Deaton Paxson (1994), Lam (1992),( ), Ohtake Saito (1998) 80, Deaton Paxson (1994), 80, Cai et al. (2007) 1992 2003, Ohtake Saito (1998) 1992 2003,, Deaton Paxson (1994) 70 80,Deaton Paxson (1994),,, Deaton Paxson (1994), 60 %,,, 90,,,,, Cai et al. (2007), () 87
: ( ) CHIP1988 1995 2002,,, ;,,,,CHIP, CHIP, ;,, Deaton Paxson (1994),,,, (2003),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (CPI),1988 Brandt Holz (2006) CHIP1988 1995 (1994) (1999) 2002 (2008),, CHIP, CHIP,, Khan Riskin(1998) (1999) (1994) (1999), Khan Riskin(1998) (equivalence scale),,,,qu Zhao (2008) OECD,, Benjamin Brandt Giles(2005) (2008) 88
Deaton Paxson ( 1994) 1 Ohtake Saito (1998), 1988, 26 70 4547 43. 417 9. 602 26 70 4547 4. 902 1. 54 1 12, 4547 8. 172 2. 954 2 14 4547 7. 429 0. 48 4. 682 9. 219, 4547 7. 913 0. 481 5. 981 9. 88 4547 0. 009 0. 096 0 1 CHIP, 4547 0. 987 0. 112 0 1 4547 0. 004 0. 059 0 1 4547 0. 171 0. 376 0 1, 1995 ( ), 19 3873 44. 115 9. 217 26 70 1 3873 4. 343 1. 247 1 10, 3873 6. 478 2. 782 0 16 3873 7. 758 0. 497 5. 915 9. 34 3873 8. 218 0. 545 6. 507 10. 195 3873 0. 034 0. 181 0 1 3873 0. 963 0. 19 0 1 3873 0. 003 0. 058 0 1 ; 3873 0. 257 0. 437 0 1,, 2002 ; 3943 44. 13 9. 24 26 70 ; 3943 3. 952 1. 113 1 8 3943 7. 719 2. 405 0 16 3943 7. 757 0. 517 5. 809 9. 414 1, 3943 8. 436 0. 577 5. 999 10. 408, 1988 3943 0. 048 0. 214 0 1 43142 1995 44111, 3943 0. 948 0. 222 0 1 2002 44113 3943 0. 004 0. 062 0 1 1988 0148 1995 3943 0. 904 0. 294 0 1 0150, 2002 0152,:1988 2002,, ( ) Deaton Paxson (1994) Ohtake Saito (1998) Cai et al. (2007),, : v = 1 n n ( c i - gc) 2 (4) i = 1, 309,,, 1 % 99 %, 604 89
:, c i gc, v (Shorocks,1984) 1988 2002, 2 2, 1988 1995 2002 1988 1995 2002 0. 183 0. 195 0. 213 0. 189 0. 222 0. 233 0. 494 0. 528 0. 581 0. 526 0. 629 0. 647 0. 48 0. 497 0. 517 0. 481 0. 545 0. 577, 0. 258 0. 274 0. 294 0. 267 0. 309 0. 323 0. 11 0. 123 0. 143 0. 119 0. 161 0. 174,,1988 2002, 1988 0127 1995 0131, 2002 0132, : 1988 0126 1995 0127, 2002 0129,1995 2002, ;, 1988 0148 1995 0154, 2002 0158 Gustafsson Li (2002) (2008), Cai Chen Zhou (2007),, 1,, 1 n : I = 1 n 2gcn c i - gc, I cv = vπgc, I SDL = n (logc i - loggcg) 2, I GINI = 2 i = 1, gc G n n 2 gc i = 1 i = 1 i ( c i - gc), I THEIL = 1 n n i = 1 c i gc log c i gc,, c i gc (2008),,, (2008),,, 90
,,,,,,,,, 1,, 1,,,, 1988 1995, 1995 2002,,, ( ) 2 1988 1995 2002,,,, 2,, Deaton Paxson (1994) Deaton Paxson (1995),,, 3,,,,,,,, 1995 2002,,,,,, U :,,, 45 50,,,,,,, 91
: 3 ( ) (age effect) (cohort effect) Ohtake Saito (1998),, ; Varln y ( j + k) = J m cohort m m = j 0 K + n age n n = k 0 + e ( j, k) (5),Varln y ( j + k) j k, cohort m m, age n n, m n,, 3, 10,, 1910 1970, 7 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1988 12 356 982 1581 1442 174 0 4547 1995 0 37 412 1248 1,411 765 0 3873 2002 0 0 118 673 1279 1493 380 3943 12 393 1512 3502 4132 2432 380 12363 (, 3) 26 70 45, 1. ( n ), 4 26 4,,, 50,,, 50,,,50, Ohtake Saito (1998), 92
,, 4 50 2. 4 m,,, 40, 10 20 30,, 4 40 0138 70 0192, 4 1920 1929 1930 1939 1940 1949 1950 1959 1960 1969 1970 1979 0. 0721 0. 259 0. 379 33 0. 573 333 0. 827 333 0. 923 333 [0. 174 ] [0. 173 ] [0. 174 ] [0. 174 ] [0. 175 ] [0. 177 ] - 0. 122 0. 162 0. 401 33 0. 696 333 1. 040 333 1. 327 333 [0. 187 ] [0. 186 ] [0. 186 ] [0. 187 ] [0. 187 ] [0. 190 ] :, 3 33 333 10 % 5 % 1 % 7 9,,,,, 50 60, 40,, 70,,, 40, 1988,,, 50 60,( 30 50 ), ; 70,,,,,,, ( ),,1988 2002 Ohtake Saito (1998) Cai et al. (2007), s mt = s 21 t, s 22 t,, s 75 t ; 2 mt = 2 21 t, 2 22 t,, 2 75 t, ; X mt = X 21 t, X 22 t,, X 75 t ; t,,, Var(ln y t ) = V ( s t, 75 2 t, X t ) = s mt 2 mt + m = 21 75 m = 21 s mt X 2 mt 75 - [ s mt X mt ] 2 (6) m = 21 93
:,, 1988 1995 2002, ( s, 2, X), V ( s 2002, 2 2002, X 2002 ) - V ( s 1988, 2 1988, X 1988 ) s V ( s 2002, 2 1988, X 1988 ) - V ( s 1988, 2 1988, X 1988 ), 2 V ( s 1988, 2 2002, X 1988 ) - V ( s 1988, 2 1988, X 1988 ), X V ( s 1988, 2 1988, X 2002 ) - V ( s 1988, 2 1988, X 1988 ),, 5 5 (1988 2002 ) 1988 1995 1995 2002 1988 2002 1988 1995 1995 2002 1988 2002 0. 0209 0. 0205 0. 0414 0. 0707 0. 0414 0. 1122-0. 0005 0. 0006 0. 0014 0. 0015 0. 0007 0. 001 0. 0195 0. 021 0. 036 0. 0689 0. 0424 0. 1051 0. 0003 0. 0005 0. 0008 0. 0022 0. 0017 0. 0033 5, 1988 2002,, 1988 1995 1995 2002,, 1988 2002, 2,,,, 1988 1995 1995 2002,,, 1988 2002,, 1988 2002, : = + (7) = + (8) = + + (9) = + + + (10) Cai Chen Zhou(2007), Deaton Paxson (1997) Cai Chen Zhou(2007), 94
,,, ;,,,, 6,,, 6,, Morduch Sicular (2002),,,,,, ( ),, 1988 1995 1995 2002 1988 2002 0. 0129 0. 0125 0. 0253-0. 0006 0. 0002 0. 0007 0. 012 0. 0096 0. 0204 0 0. 0035 0. 0041 0. 0299 0. 0208 0. 0507 0. 0089 0. 0055 0. 0141 0. 0186 0. 0174 0. 0317 0. 0031-0. 0054-0. 0015 0. 0308 0. 0234 0. 0542-0. 0013 0. 0003 0. 0012 0. 0293 0. 0211 0. 0472-0. 0004 0. 0033 0. 0037 0. 0339 0. 0257 0. 0596 0. 0009-0. 0012 0. 0011 0. 0308 0. 0245 0. 0519 0. 0033 0. 0009 0. 0047 7,, ( 5),,,,,,, 7 1920 1929 1930 1939 1940 1949 1950 1959 1960 1969 1970 1979-0. 094-0. 093-0. 225-0. 352 33-0. 434 33-0. 546 333 [0. 169 ] [0. 168 ] [0. 169 ] [0. 169 ] [0. 170 ] [0. 172 ] - 0. 033 0. 195 0. 403 33 0. 680 333 1. 020 333 1. 260 333 [0. 175 ] [0. 174 ] [0. 175 ] [0. 175 ] [0. 175 ] [0. 178 ] 95
: ( ),,,,, 5 8, :, 8 (1988 2002 ) 1988 1995 1995 2002 1988 2002 1988 1995 1995 2002 1988 2002 0. 0178-0. 0603-0. 0426 0. 0307 0. 0278 0. 0585-0. 0006 0. 0012 0. 0007-0. 0008 0. 0008 0. 0007 0. 018-0. 0598-0. 0424 0. 0293 0. 0291 0. 051 0. 0002-0. 001-0. 0008 0. 0004 0. 0018 0. 0023 ( ) Brandt2Holz,,,,,,,, Brandt2Holz,, (5), Brandt2Holz ( 6) ( 9) 6,,, 50,,,,,, 6 Brandt2Holz,, ( 10), Brandt2Holz, Brandt Holz(2006), CHIP, 96
9 Brandt Holz (2004) 1920 1929 1930 1939 1940 1949 1950 1959 1960 1969 1970 1979 0. 00515 0. 0437 0. 0243 0. 0948 0. 226 0. 281 3 [0. 165 ] [0. 164 ] [0. 165 ] [0. 165 ] [0. 166 ] [0. 168 ] - 0. 185-0. 056 0. 0466 0. 221 0. 445 33 0. 697 333 [0. 178 ] [0. 177 ] [0. 178 ] [0. 178 ] [0. 179 ] [0. 181 ] 10 Brandt Holz (2004) 1988 1995 1995 2002 1988 2002 1988 1995 1995 2002 1988 2002 0. 0072 0. 0318 0. 039 0. 0534 0. 0563 0. 1097-0. 0005 0. 0009 0. 0012 0. 0011 0. 0023 0. 0008 0. 0066 0. 0322 0. 0337 0. 0537 0. 0567 0. 102 0. 0002 0. 0011 0. 0015 0. 0021 0. 0021 0. 0033 ( ) CHIP, ( ),,,,, 1995 2002,,11 11 1995 2002 44. 63 9. 098 38. 894 8. 416 44. 77 9. 273 40. 43 8. 075 6. 476 2. 766 6. 878 2. 563 7. 728 2. 412 7. 688 2. 347 4. 343 1. 254 4. 281 1. 146 3. 947 1. 129 3. 963 0. 997 0. 059 0. 235 0. 013 0. 111 0. 073 0. 26 0. 023 0. 15 6. 33 0. 477 6. 239 0. 46 6. 446 0. 505 6. 312 0. 466 6. 797 0. 537 6. 675 0. 519 7. 124 0. 58 6. 997 0. 548 6. 016 0. 484 5. 921 0. 482 5. 844 0. 443 5. 695 0. 414 3228 320 3314 563 60 ;,,,,, 1988, 1988 97
:,, 1995 6, 2002 4 ;, 60,,,, 12, 1995 2002 1995 2002, : 0. 0195 0. 0379 = + 0. 0045 0. 0071 + + (11) 0. 0137 0. 0326,, 12 0. 0018-0. 0023,, ;,,,, 1988 2002 CHIP,,,,, Cai et al. (2007),, 1988 2002, 50,,50,,, 40,,,,,, 1988 2002, ;,,,, 98
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,,,,,,,,,,,, 15,13 20,,,,,2008 :, :, UNDP,2005 :, Scott Rozelle,2008, Advance Praise, in Bjorn Gustafsson, Li Shi and Terry Sicular ed., Inequality and Public Policy in China, Cambridge University Press. ( : ) ( : ) ( 99 ) The Effect of Population Aging on Consumption and Income Inequality in Rural China Qu Zhaopeng a, c and Zhao Zhong b, c (a : School of Economics and Business Administration, Beijing Normal University ; b : School of Labor and Human Resources, Renmin University of China ;c : Institute for the Study of Labor) Abstract:This paper investigates the relationship between consumption, income inequalities, age and population aging in rural China based on the life cycle model. Using 1988, 1995 and 2002 three waves of rural household surveys in China Household Income Project, we apply analysis of variance and regression decomposition methods to decompose the consumption and income inequalities in rural China into three parts : cohort effect, age effect and population aging effect. The results show that consumption inequality is smaller than income inequality in rural areas, within cohort effect dominates other effects in every period, and population aging only plays a small role on the inequality increasing in rural China. Key Words : Aging ; Lncome ; Consumption ; Inequality ; Life2cycle Theory JEL Classification : I30, J19, D63, O18 ( : ) ( : ) 149