COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS TMT NON-HARDWARE INDUSTRY UPDATE From a technical analysis perspective Analyst: Mark Po, CFA; Tel: (852) ;

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1 公司 / 行业动态 218 年 9 月 24 日 TMT 非硬件行业更新从技术分析角度选股分析员 : 布家杰, CFA; 电话 : (852) ; markpo@chinastock.com.hk; 自从我们于 218 年 9 月 13 日从资金流和技术分析角度讨论腾讯 [7.HK] 以来, 截至 218 年 9 月 21 日, 腾讯股价已上涨 8.4%, 表现优于恒生指数 6.2% 和国企指数 7.7% 我们认为, 腾讯的股价表现是由于 :a) 股票回购, 以及 b) 市场情绪改善预计腾讯股价的反弹将提振其他 TMT 非硬件品牌的情绪, 因为该行业将继续成为市场焦点, 因为 :a) 底部捕捞, 因为自实施以来没有出现重大负面消息美国对另外 2 亿美元的中国出口产品征收关税 ; b) 中国政府仍然支持中国的 TMT 非硬件部门 ; c) 互联网名称成功上市, 例如美团 [369.HK] 就细分市场而言, 我们重申此前的观点, 即是与 tob 相关业务 ( 包括云和 SaaS) 将成为大多数互联网公司的主要关注点, 因为 a) 它仍处于发展的早期阶段, 具有很大的增长潜力 ;b) 它得到了中国政府的支持, 包括企业上云等发展战略由于上周五市场全面反弹, 加上接近季末将有橱窗粉饰效应, 市场或会寻找有机会补涨的 TMT 非硬件股份我们把对腾讯的分析 ( 技术指标如 RSI MFI ADX 保力加通道和成交额) 放到其他香港上市的 TMT 非硬件股, 以了解哪些股份有较大潜力补涨使用的技术指标的定义相对强弱指数 (RSI) 是一个动量指标, 用于衡量短期价格变化的幅度, 以分析超买或超卖情况它主要用于识别资产交易中的超买或超卖情况资金流量指数 (MFI) 是一种动量指标, 用于衡量在特定时间段内进出证券的资金流量它与相对强弱指数 (RSI) 有关, 但当中包含了成交额, 而 RSI 仅考虑价格 MFI 是通过计算累计正负资金流, 然后得出一个资金比率其后该资金比率将平常化至 MFI 振荡形式平均方向指数 (ADX) 用于确定价格何时出现强势走势它用于量化趋势强度 ADX 计算在特定时间段内价格范围扩展的移动平均值默认设置为 14 条, 但可以使用其他时间段 ADX 是无方向性的 ; 无论价格是上涨还是下跌, 它均记录趋势强度保力加通道是由一条中心线和两条价格信道 ( 带 ) 组成中心线是指数移动平均线 ; 价格信道是由股票的标准偏差组成随着股价变得波动 ( 扩张 ) 或交易范围收紧 ( 收缩 ), 这些通道将会扩大和收缩根据我们的技术分析, 我们认为腾讯仍有上升空间, 而短期内股价有望受到成交额回升所支撑技术指标也显示, 金蝶国际 [268.HK] 浪潮国际 [596.HK] 和中国擎天软件 [1297.HK] 等 IT 服务股有望继续跑赢, 因股价势头正在回升然而, 在股价反弹后, 金山软件 [3888.HK] 和美图 [1357.HK] 的股价似乎正在整固慧聪集团 [228.HK] 的投资情绪未有大幅改善, 但我们仍然认为, 市场在获知慧聪集团业务转型后将对其重新估值 TMT 非硬件股方面, 网龙 [777.HK] 神州控股[861.HK] 中国有赞[883.HK] 和畅捷通 [1588.HK] 的表现都滞后, 因为市场情绪和动力未有重大回升除非这些股份有很重大的股价催化剂, 否则它们可能会落后其他同业图 1: 技术分析总结股票代号公司股价 ( 当地货币 ) Ticker Company Price SMA MACD EMA保力加通道 Bolli-UP 保力加通道 Bolli-DN -DN "Annual" 年度波动性 P/SMA Average 平均回报 Sharpe 1-RSI %K %D 索提诺比率 Sortino Zweig 4% DSA P/52-Week 股价周高 Low Lcy Volatility Return Ratio Ratio 14 7 HK 腾讯 Tencent HK 金山软件 Kingsoft HK IGG HK 天鸽 Tiange HK 网龙 NetDragon HK 美图 Meitu HK 金碟国际 Kingdee HK 金山软件 Sinosoft HK 浪潮国际 Inspur HK 神州控股 DC ings HK 中国软件国际 ChinaSoft HK 伟仕佳杰 VSTECS HK 阅文 China Literature HK 中国有赞 Youzan HK 云游控股 Forgame HK 阿里影业 Ali Picture HK 畅捷通 Changjet 来源 : Yahoo.com, 中国银河国际证券研究部 1

2 COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS TMT NON-HARDWARE INDUSTRY UPDATE From a technical analysis perspective Analyst: Mark Po, CFA; Tel: (852) ; markpo@chinastock.com.hk; Since our discussion on Tencent [7.HK] from a fund flow and technical analysis perspective on 13 Sep 218, shares of Tencent have risen 8.4% as of 21 Sep 218, outperforming the HSI s 6.2% and HSCEI s 7.7%. Tencent s share price performance, in our view, was due to: a) a share buy back, and b) an improvement in market sentiment. The rebound in shares of Tencent is expected to boost sentiment on other TMT non-hardware names, as the sector will remain the focus of the market, given: a) bottom fishing, as there has been no major negative news flow since the imposition of US tariffs on another US$2bn of Chinese exports; b) the Chinese government remains supportive of China s TMT non-hardware segment; and c) there has been a successful listing of internet names, such as Meituan [369.HK]. In terms of sub-segments, we reiterate our view that tob-related business, including the cloud and SaaS, will be the major focus of most internet companies, as a) it is still at the early stage of development and has a large potential to grow; and b) it is supported by the Chinese government, including development strategies like migrating to the cloud. The market might look for laggards in the TMT non-hardware segment, given the broad-based market rebound last Friday and potential window dressing approaching end of Sep 218. We have extended the exercise on Tencent (technical indicators such as RSI, MFI, ADX, Bollinger Bands and trading volume) to other HK-listed TMT non-hardware names to see which are likely to play catch-up. Definitions of technical indicators used. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to analyze overbought or oversold conditions. It is used primarily to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the trading of an asset. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a momentum indicator that measures the flow of money into and out of a security over a specified period of time. It is related to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but incorporates volume, whereas the RSI considers only price. The MFI is calculated by accumulating positive and negative Money Flow values, and then creating a Money Ratio. The Money Ratio is then normalized into the MFI oscillator form. The average directional index (ADX) is used to determine when the price is trending strongly. It is used to quantify trend strength. ADX calculations are based on the moving average of price range expansion over a given period of time. The default setting is 14 bars, although other time periods can be used. ADX is non-directional; it registers trend strength whether prices are trending up or down. Bollinger Bands consist of a centre line and two price channels (bands) above and below it. The centre line is an exponential moving average; the price channels are the standard deviations of the stocks being studied. The bands will expand and contract as the price action of an issue becomes volatile (expansion) or becomes bound into a tight trading pattern (contraction). Based on technical analysis, we believe that there is still upside for Tencent, and its recent share price movement has been supported by a pick-up in it trading volume. The technical indictors also show that the shares of IT services names, including Kingdee [268.HK], Inspur [596.HK] and Sinosoft [1297.HK], are likely to continue to outperform, given the pick-up in momentum. However, it seems that shares of Kingsoft [3888.HK] and Meitu [1357.HK] are likely to consolidate after a rebound in their share prices. We haven t seen a major pick-up in sentiment on HC Group [228.HK], but we still believe that HC Group will be re-rated after the market is notified of the business transformation of HC Group. TMT non-hardware names such as NetDragon [777.HK], DC ing [861.HK], Youzan [883.HK] and Changjet [1588.HK] are lagging, as we haven t seen any major pick-up in market sentiment and momentum. Unless there are major share price catalysts for these names, they are likely to lag behind others in the segment. Figure 1: Technical analysis summary Sep 24, 218 Ticker Company Price SMA MACD EMA Bolli-UP Bolli-DN "Annual" P/SMA Average Sharpe 1-RSI %K %D Sortino Zweig 4% DSA P/52-Week Low Lcy Volatility Return Ratio Ratio 14 7 HK Tencent HK Kingsoft HK IGG HK Tiange HK NetDragon HK Meitu HK Kingdee HK Sinosoft HK Inspur HK DC ings HK ChinaSoft HK VSTECS HK China Literature HK Youzan HK Forgame HK Ali Picture HK Changjet Source: Yahoo.com, CGIS Research 2

3 Figure 2: Tencent /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 3:Tencent MFI 9. Tencent: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 4: Tencent VDX Figure 5: Tencent Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Tencent: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 45. Tencent: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD Figure 5: Kingsoft /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 7: Kingsoft MFI 9. Kingsoft: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 8: Kingsoft VDX Figure 9: Kingsoft Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Kingsoft: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 26. Kingsoft: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD

4 Figure 1: IGG /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 11: IGG MFI 9. IGG: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 12: IGG VDX IGG: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} Figure 13: IGG Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume 12. IGG: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD Figure 14: Tiange /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 15: Tiange MFI 9. Tiange: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 16: Tiange VDX Figure 17: Tiange Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Tiange: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 7. Tiange: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD

5 Figure 18: NetDragon /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 19:NetDragon MFI 9. NetDragon: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 2: NetDragon VDX Figure 21: NetDragon Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume NetDragon: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 19. NetDragon: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD Figure 22: Meitu /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 23: Meitu MFI 12. Meitu: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 24: Meitu VDX Figure 25: Meitu Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Meitu: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 8. Meitu: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD

6 Figure 26: Kingdee /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 27: Kingdee MFI 9. Kingdee: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 28: Kingdee VDX Figure 29: Kingdee Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Kingdee: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 12. Kingdee: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD Figure 3: Sinosoft /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 31: Sinosoft MFI 9. Sinosoft: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 32: Sinosoft VDX Figure 33: Sinosoft Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Sinosoft: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 3.2 Sinosoft: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD

7 Figure 34: Inspur /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 35: Inspur MFI 12. Inspur: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 36: Inspur VDX Figure 37: Inspur Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Inspur: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 3.8 Inspur: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD Figure 38: DC ings Figure 39: DC ings MFI /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 9. DC ings: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 4: DC ings VDX DC ings: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI- Figure 41: DC ings Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume 4.7 DC ings: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD

8 Figure 42: HC Group /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 43: HC Group MFI 9. HC Group: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 44: HC Group VDX HC Group: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} Figure 45: HC Group Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume 6.5 HC Group: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD Figure 46: ChinaSoft /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 47: ChinaSoft MFI 9. ChinaSoft: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 48: ChinaSoft VDX ChinaSoft: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} Figure 49: ChinaSoft Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume 7. ChinaSoft: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD

9 Figure 5: VSTECS /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 51: VSTECS MFI 9. VSTECS: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 52: VSTECS VDX Figure 53: VSTECS Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume VSTECS: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 4.6 VSTECS: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD Figure 54: China Literature Figure 55: China Literature MFI / 1/ 1/ 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 9. China Literature: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 56: China Literature VDX Figure 57: China Literature Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume China Literature: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI China Literature: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD

10 Figure 58: Youzan /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 59: Youzan MFI 9. Youzan: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 6: Youzan VDX Figure 61: Youzan Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Youzan: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 1.2 Youzan: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD Figure 62: Forgame Figure 63: Forgame MFI /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 1. Forgame: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 64: Forgame VDX Figure 65: Forgame Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Forgame: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 12. Forgame: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD

11 Figure 66: Ali Picture /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 67: Ali Picture MFI 9. Ali Picture : MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 68: Ali Picture VDX Ali Picture : VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} Figure 69: Ali Picture Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume 1.2 Ali Picture : Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD Figure 7: Changjet /17 8/17 1/17 11/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 Figure 71: Changjet MFI 9. Changjet: MFI to Sep 21, Jul 31 Aug 2 Sep 9 Figure 72: Changjet VDX Figure 73: Changjet Bollinger Bands and Trading Volume Changjet: VDX = {(VDI+)-(VDI-)}/{(VDI+)+(VDI-)} 13. Changjet: Volume(K), Price & Bollinger: 15-day Average +/- 2. SD

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COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS Nov 6, 218 TMT INDUSTRY UPDATE From a technical analysis perspective Analyst: Mark Po, CFA; Tel: (852) ;

COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS Nov 6, 218 TMT INDUSTRY UPDATE From a technical analysis perspective Analyst: Mark Po, CFA; Tel: (852) ; 公司 / 行业动态 TMT 行业更新技术分析再探 218 年 11 月 6 日分析员 : 布家杰, CFA; 电话 : (852) 3698 6318; markpo@chinastock.com.hk; 多只 TMT 股在上周反弹后, 昨日出现调整我们认为由于市场情绪仍然偏弱, 再加上宏观经济事件亦没有明确的方向, 市场表现将继续受事件因素影响我们采用了多项技术指标 (RSI MFI VDX