, 4, 1999,, 3 :,,, 1955,,, ;, 1963, 3,,,, 1956 1999 43,?,? 1999, 4,,,, 20 70, ( Granovetter),, 30, (), ( Information Asymmetry), 77
2001 2,, (Devine & Kiefer, 1991), :, ;,,,,?, 300, 57 % ( Granovetter, 1974),, ( Fernan2 dez & Weinberg, 1997) :,, ( Granovetter, 1973),,,,,,,, (Lin, 1982),,, ;,,, ( Granovetter 1995 1999 ) (),,,,,,,, :,,,,,,? 1988,,, (Bian, 1994, 1997),, :, ;, ;,,, (Bian, 1997 ; Bian & Ang, 1997)? :,,,,,, 78
,,,,,, ( Tao & Zhu, 2000),, (),,,, (, 1996 ;, 1996 ;, 1997 ;, 1997 ;, 1998 ;, 1998 ;, 1999 ;, 1999),,,,?, 4,,, (Nee, 1989), ;, ; ;,, :,, ( ),,, (Bian & Logan, 1996),,,,,,, ( Tao & Zhu, 2000),,,,,, ;, ( ), 80 90, :, ( Parish & Michelson, 1996), (Zhou, 2000), :, ;,,,, ( ),,,,,, 79
2001 2,, :,,, :,,,,,, ( ) () 1999 ( ) 6, 757 244 12 36, 10 4 29 1 18 60 () 3 : (a), ; (b), ; (c),,,, influence favor,,,, 3, + ( ), contact, 3 : (1), ( ) / 6 ; (2), 4 ; (3), / / / / 5, 5312 % 2 80, 2195,,
(), 466, 1956 1999, 3 1956 1979,,,,, 1980 1992,,,,, (, 1998, 3 4 123 125 ;, 1997, 114 125 ) 1993, 466, 1317 %, 2316 %, 6217 %, (), 3,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,, 1,, 3111 %, 4811, 7618 %,,,,,,,, 3 58 %66 %85 %,, 81
2001 2?,,,, 3 11 :, 1999 1956 1979 1980 1992 1993 1999 466 64 110 292 3111 % 7314 % 5812 % 1116 % 4811 % 1215 % 2812 % 6314 % 7618 % 5718 % 6614 % 8419 % 358 37 73 248 1311 % 1315 % 1511 % 1215 % 4917 % 6419 % 4215 % 4916 % 3712 % 2116 % 4215 % 3719 % 358 37 73 248 + 3914 % 4816 % 3917 % 3719 % 4018 % 2710 % 3917 % 4311 % 1918 % 2413 % 2015 % 1910 % () 1, 358, 1311 %, 4917 %, 3712 % ;, 8619 % 1988, 1519 % (Bian, 1997) 3 ( 13 % ),,,,,,,, () 80, 1996, 311, 890 (, 1997, 119 ) 82 1994 11 447, 896 328, 269 128, 30102 % 1998, 3 31 274, 2 972 513 648 637, 21182 % (, 1999, 365 ),
1 4018 %, 1918 %, 3914 +,,,,,,,,, +,,,,,, +,,,, +, (4311 %),, 2, ( ),, + 6010 % 917 %, 20 % 6717 %,,, :, 1956 1979 21 + 37 18 10 9 5 6010 % 2010 % 2010 % 24 4117 % 2912 % 2912 % 8 6215 % 2510 % 1215 % Chi2Square = 11562 1980 1992 73 29 29 15 11 3614 % 5415 % 911 % 31 4512 % 3817 % 1611 % 31 3515 % 3515 % 2910 % Chi2Square = 31242 1993 1999 248 94 107 47 31 917 % 6717 % 2216 % 123 4515 % 3313 % 2111 % 94 3712 % 4719 % 1419 % Chi2Square = 171335 83
2001 2,,,?,??? ( )? 3, ( ),,, () 3 ( + ),,, (Multinomial Regression), 3,,, 3,,,,,,,,,,,,,, +,,, ( Granovetter, 1973, 1974),, (Walder, 1995),,,,, / +,,,,,,, () 4,, ;,, ; /, 84
, 1992, 80,,, : 31 ( Multinomial Regression) 1956 1979 1980 1992 1993 1999 (1) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2) / a 1625 11414-1402 - 21211 1499 11983 1318-11398 1412 1132 / 1537-1780 - 1269 1279 / 1537-1780 11040 1237-1644 - 11092-11717 - 31169 333-1226 1586 b - 21338-1081 1166 1003 1090 1137-11803 - 11505-11141 1111 1286 11226 c 21683 3 1634-11575 1018 1492 11490! - 11518-11437 1242 1965 11051! 1757 11261 333 1742 Intercept 11099-1000 21718 21904 1272-1584 Pseudo R2Square(Nagelkerke) 1389 1238 1125-2 Log Likelihood 271897 531096 1511464 Chi2Square D. F. 151442 171140 281790 10 16 22 37 73 248! P < 110, 3 P < 105, 33 P < 101, 333 P < 1001 ( ) a. b. c. : (1), (2) + 1956 1992 1998, 8313 %7215 %6011 %, 1617 %2416 %1518 %, 0 %219 %2411 % (, 1999, 88 ) 85
2001 2 41 1956 1979 1980 1992 1993 1999 N 358 37 73 248 / 80 4312 % 3115 % 1615 % 87 2917 % 2714 % 2216 % / 27 217 % 1011 % / 54 618 % 1918 % 18 1018 % 411 % 414 % 92 1612 % 2714 % 2616 % Chi2Square = 441479 D. F. = 10 201 9119 % 7617 % 4418 % 51 811 % 916 % 1615 % 48 916 % 1615 % 58 411 % 2212 % Chi2Square = 471108 D. F. = 6 56 2710 % 1718 % 1313 % 162 6716 % 6116 % 3711 % 22 217 % 811 % 40 217 % 1513 % 78 514 % 1511 % 2612 % Chi2Square = 421238 D. F. = 8 4, / /,,, () 5,, 3 :, 3,,, ;, /,,,,,,,,, 86
,,,,,,,,, 3,,,,, +,,,, + 51 ( Multinomial Regression) 1956 1979 1980 1992 1993 1999 : (1) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2) / a 11667 11140 1865 1883 1035 1560 11961 21359 3 21000 33 11135 1708 11061 3 b - 21258 171303 333-1328 1123-11108 3 c 21163! 1489-181034 333 1769 1495 11987 33 1498 1338 11490 333 Intercept 1256-171524 333 1789-1067 1507 33 1058 Pseudo R2Square(Nagelkerke) 1385 1193 1095-2 Log Likelihood 221949 391157 741675 Chi2Square 151225 131569 211546 D. F. 8 10 10 37 73 248! P < 110, 3 P < 105, 33 P < 101, 333 P < 1001 ( ) a. b. c. : (1), (2) + (),,,, 87
2001 2,,,,,,,,,, (), ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),, (),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,? : :, :, 110 138, ( ) 1999 :, 1997 1, 33 41 :, 1996 4, 42 52 :, 1999 3, 93 101 :, 1996 4, 53 63 : :, 1998 4, 31 37, 1999 88
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