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1 ( ) China Eco no mic Quarterly Vol19, No13 April, (CGSS 2005),,, :,,,,,,,, 1, Szelenyi (1987), Nee ( 1989, 1991, 1996), Ro na2tas ( 1994 ), Walder ( 1996 ), Morduch and Sicular ( 2000 ), Liu (2003), Lam (2003), Li et al. (2007), (2007), (2009), Appleton et al. (2009),,, (Li et al., 2007 ; Appleton et al., 2009),, 3, ;,, :, 11, ; : ; E2mail : he2 com. cn ( ) (CGSS), ;,,,,,, ( ) 1 ( ),,,,, : (,1999) ( ) ( )
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4 894 ( ) 9 5,? 6 : (1) 1988, Xie and Han2 num (1996),,, (2) Nee (1989),, ( ), ;,, (2006),, (3) , Bian and Logan (1996), Appleton et al. (2009) Bian and Logan (1996),,, Appleton et al. (2009),,,,, :,?,,?,,? 7 ( ) ( China General Social Survey, CGSS), 2003, ; 2005,, , 28 5, Liu (2003),, ; (2002),,, ( ),,,,2002, ( ) ( Knight and Yueh,2002 ;,2007) 7
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6 896 ( ) 9, j ( = 1,2) , Tt = 2005 = 1, j = 1,2 3 j ( ), 3 j 2. T j X j X,, ; 11 ; ;, Xie and Hannum (1996), Nee (1996), (2002),, (2004) 12, ( / ),,,, (2008) ; 1978,, ,, 2003 ( / ) 1 1 1, 0, 11 ( 1 11) , 1 1, 0 (2004) 11,? 12 (2006) ( ) ( ), (2004), , (2008, 106 ) 13, 1970,
7 3 : 897 ( ), 711,, 165, 542, A1b ; ( A1c), , 5016 % 25 % 2414 % ;, ;, , 20 %, 40, A1a, :,, ; A1a,,,, ( ) ( 2), 1 31 %,, 5185 %, 2 1, 4 %,, % , 2 7 %, 1112 %, : Zhou (2000) 6 %, Xie and Hannum (1996) 716 %, Walder (1990) 9 %, Liu (2003) 10 % 38 % ( Hauser and Xie, 2005),, Xie and Hannum (1996),,,, ( C) ( P), : P = exp ( C) ,,, :,2009
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9 3 : ,, 17,,,,, % %, U ( ),, % ( 4 5) % ( 3) ( ),, ( 3),, :,,,, 3 (1) OL S (2) 2SL S (0. 09) (0. 84) (0. 01) (0. 03) (0. 02) (0. 01) (0. 01) (0. 01) (0. 02) (0. 06) (0. 02) (0. 03) (0. 07) (0. 21) (0. 00) (0. 00) (0. 003) (0. 01) (0. 08) (0. 10) R rmse : 3 p < 0. 10, 3 3 p < 0. 05, p < 0. 01, 16,,,, 17, 20 80,,,,,,
10 900 ( ) 9 ( ) (2007), Bian and Logan (1996) (2006) (2008) Appleton et al. (2009), (2006) 1996, ( ), (2006),,,,, Hauser and Xie (2005) ( A2) 18,,,, ,, , ( ),, ( 2), 4 5 ( ),, 3, 819 % 7199 %, 19, Liu (2003), Logit ( A3) 20, :, ;,, (Liu, 2003 ;, 2009), (2006) 19 ( ),, 20 Liu (2003), : (1),, ; (2),,
11 3 : 901,, / ( ),,,, 4,, 2003, 2005,,, :,, (2004),,, (2006), (2008) 21, 4 (1) (2) N R : 3 p < ; 3 3 p < ; p < 0. 01, ( ), Lam (2003), 22, e,, e , p = 01012, 5 %, e, ( 21,,, 1985, , 1 %
12 902 ( ) 9 A4), 23, (2002) Fan et al. (2007) (2SL S) OL S,,,, ;,,, 3 (1),, 3 (1) ( 3 (2) ) 5 %,,,,, 24,,,,,,, ; 25,,,,,,,,, 23 24, 8 25, ( ) ( ), (2009)
13 3 : 903 A A1a (1. 02) (0. 83) (1. 03) (0. 77) (1. 46) (0. 62) (2. 46) (2. 28) (2. 40) (11. 64) (11. 05) (11. 67) (0. 50) (0. 44) (0. 50) (0. 19) (0. 36 ) (0. 15) (0. 47) (0. 49) (0. 46) (0. 32) (0. 40) (0. 30) (0. 31) (0. 28) (0. 32) (0. 49) (0. 36) (0. 50) (0. 10) (0. 23) (0. 08) (0. 46) (0. 47) (0. 46) (0. 38) (0. 41) (0. 38) (0. 32) (0. 28) (0. 32) : A1b (0. 79) (0. 68) (1. 91) (2. 01) (0. 40) (0. 45) (8. 87) (10. 33) A1c A vs vs vs vs ,,
14 904 ( ) 9 ( ) vs vs vs vs N R rmse : 3 p < 0. 10, 3 3 p < 0. 05, p < 0. 01, A3 (1) (2) (3) (1. 678) (1. 671) (1. 678) (1. 093) (1. 093) (1. 092) (2. 908) (2. 921) (2. 922) (4. 683) (4. 625) (4. 561) (0. 681) (0. 680) (0. 682) (1. 035) (1. 029) (1. 037) (1. 453) (1. 430) (1. 359) (0. 988) (0. 983) (1. 461) Pseudo R : 3 p < 0. 10, 3 3 p < 0. 05, p < 0. 01,,
15 3 : 905 A4 t P > t OL S 2SL S [ 1 ] Appleton, S., L. Song, and Q. Xia, Has China Crossed t he River? The Evolution of Wage Struc2 t ure in Urban China During Reform and Retrenchment, J ournal of Com parative Economics, 2005, 33 (4), [ 2 ] Appleton, S., J. Knight, L. Song, and Q. Xia, The Economics of Communist Party Member2 ship : The Curious Case of Rising Numbers and Wage Premium during Chinaπs Transition, J ournal of Develop ment S tudies, 2009, 45 (2), [ 3 ],,,2001 2, [ 4 ],, :,2002, [ 5 ],, : 2003, :,2008 [ 6 ],, 35,2009 [ 7 ] Cook, S., Work, Wealt h, and Power in Agriculture : Do Political Connections Affect t he Returns to Household Labor? in Walder, A. (ed. ), Zouping in T ransition : the Process of Ref orm in Ru2 ral N ort h China. Cambridge, Mass : Harvard University Press, 1998, [ 8 ],,,1999 4, [ 9 ] Djilas, M., The N ew Class : A n A nal ysis of the Communist S ystem of Power. New York : Prae2 ger,1957. [ 10 ] Faccio, M., R. Masulis, and J. McConnell, Political Connections and Corporate Bailout s, J our2 nal of Finance, 2006, 61 (6),
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18 908 ( ) 9 Do the Returns to Political Capital Rise or Fall in Chinaπs Transition Period? H EWAN G L IU ( H ubei Uni versit y) YU FEN G WAN G ( Renmi n Uni versit y of Chi na, J i ang x i U ni versit y of Fi nance an d Economics) Abstract With the 2005 CGSS data, this article studies how the returns to political cap2 ital ( represented by party membership) have changed in Chinaπs market transition using the time2effect comparison approach. Our result s show that the returns to political capital tend to fall with the transition. Political capital may be beneficial to the access to advantageous posi2 tions and market liberalization tends to weaken this mechanism. JEL Classif ication D31, D79, J39
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引言
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标题
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