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1 CJS 30 :,,,,,,,, : How H igh can M a le Phoen ix Fly : M en s upward M ob ility from the Rura l to Non2Rura l Sta tus in Ch ina L in Yi Abstract: Based on the data from the Chinese General Social Survey, this paper analyzes men s intra2generationalmobility from the rural to non2rural status relying upon rank levels and rank categories. These men generally have decent jobs and are likely to be p romoted, but they tend to be at disadvantage when they have risen from the m iddle level to the advanced level. They are very much unlikely to get advancement in adm inistration or high2level management outside their p rofession although they may enjoy advantages in p rofessional rank p romotion. social cap ital is thought to be one of the potential culp rits. Keywords: social mobility, household registration system, rank leve Lacking of 3 : (Author: L in Yi, Department of Sociology, Peking University) E2mail: slcf@163. com (CGSS2003),, 88

2 1,,,,,,, (, 2006) :,,???,,,,, :,,???,?,,,, L ip set Zetterberg(1956),,,,, 1, 2000,,, 89

3 2010 1, (B lau & Ruan, 1990; L in & B ian, 1991; L in & Xie, 1988 ), (L in & B ian, 1991; B ian, 1994),,,, (2007), 1996, : ISE I, ( ISE I 6. 8 ),, ( ISE I ), 15% ( ), ( ),, : ( ),,, Treiman (W u & Treiman, 2004), 1955,,,, (, 2003),, (W u & Treiman, 2004),,,,,, 90

4 ,, ( ), 1,, (W alder, 1986; B ian, 1994),,,,,, (B ian, 1994),, (W u, 2002),,, (L in & B ian, 1991; B ian & Logan, 1996),,,,,,, (, EGP, Erikson, Goldthorpe & Portocarero, 1979),,,,,,,,, 1, (W u, 2002),,,, 91

5 2010 1, 1, (, 1994),,, ( ),,,,, 2,, ;,,,,,,,,, ( ), ( ISE I ),,,,?, (2008), ( ) (B ian, 1994), (2004),, (2007),,, 1, 2,,, 92

6 :,,, (Deng & Treiman, 1997),,,, (L i & W alder, 2001),,,, ( ),,,, ( ),, W u Treiman (2004),,,,,,,,,,,,,, 20, 93

7 (Herrnstern & Murray, 1994),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (Becker, 1964),,,, 1, ( Granovetter, 1985),, 2 ( Granovetter, 1973; B ian, 1997; L in, 1999; Powell & Sm ith2doerr, 1994;, 2000;, 2001),,, (B ian, 1997;, 2001),,,,, ( ),,,, 1, 1970,, (Duncan et al., 1972; Griliches &Mason, 1972) Fischer Hout (1996), The Bell Curve Heckman ( 1995),, G 2,,, 94

8 , ;,,,,, 2003 (CGSS2003), ( ) ,, , 2003, CGSS2005, ,,,,,,,, : : 1, 0 :,,, ;,,,,,, ( ), /, ; /,, 95

9 2010 1,,,,, ;,,,,,,,, : 0, 6, 9, 12, 14, 16, 19 9,, : 1, 0,,,,, (1) (2) ( 3) ; ;, 4,, ;,, ;, ;,,,, ( act) ( act = 1), ( emp sta) /, ;, ( act = 2), 96

10 /, ;, ( act = 3), /, ; /, 2003, ; 2003,,, 8,,,,,,,,,, 1 477, 1,,,, : ln m >m ( x) = m 2x for m = 1 to J21 (McCullagh, 1980; Long & Freese, 2006), F : ;,, J21,, : ln m \ b ( x) = x m \ b for m = 1 to J21,,, ( ), ( continuation p ( y > j y j, x) odds ratio), : ln ( x) = ln p ( y = j y j, x) =x, 97

11 : (N = 1 477) (N = 952) (N = 525) ,, ;,,, ln ( x) = ln Pr( y = 1 x) Pr( y = 0 x) =x, 2 logit,,,, (odds) 2. 2 ( e = 2. 2) : ; ( ) 98

12 , [ / ( ) = ], [ 8, / ( ) = ], 2: logit 1 ( vs. ) ( vs. ) ( vs. ) (0. 196) (0. 169) (0. 260) (0. 286) (0. 179) (0. 153) (0. 132) (0. 230) (0. 008) (0. 006) (0. 010) (0. 028) (0. 035) (0. 073) (0. 001) (0. 001) (0. 001) (0. 314) (0. 197) (0. 267) (0. 223) (0. 292) (0. 827) (0. 573) (1. 197) (0. 788) (0. 815) (1. 516) Log - likelihood Pseudo R : 1. ; 3 33 p < 0. 1, p < 0. 05, 333 p < ,, 99

13 ( ) logit,,,, 1. 6 ( e = 1. 6) : ( ), 4. 8,,, ( e = 1. 34) 1, logit,,,,,,,,, 2,, ( e = ) : 9, 34, 34, , 6% ( e = ), 1 2 1,, 1, 2 logit, 100

14 1: : 2: :,,, 25,, 2,,,,,, 101

15 2010 1,, 25,, :,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,?,?,,,?? logit,,, SOR ( stereotype ordered regression) (Anderson, 1984), : ln Pr( y = q Pr( y = r x) x) = ( q - r ) - ( < q - < r ) ( x ), q r from 1 to J, : < 1 = 1, < J = 0, J = 0 SOR 102

16 ,,,,, 3 SO R 3: ( SOR ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 0. 3) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) < ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) L og likelihood : ; ; 3 33 p < 0. 05, p <

17 : SOR < 3 SO R < : <,,,, ( 0. 28),,,, ( 0. 28),,,,, :, ( 0. 06) ;,, ;, ;,, ( < , ), 104

18 ( 2007), /,,,,, :, ;, ;, ;, ( ) ;, ;,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,, 105

19 (References) Anderson, J. A Regression and O rdered Categorical Variables (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological),Vol. 46. Becker, G. S Human Cap ital. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. B ian, Yanjie. New York Press Work and Inequality in U rban China. A lbany: State University of B ringing Strong Ties Back In: Indirect Connection, B ridges and Job Search in China. American Sociological Review 62: B ian, Yanjie and John Logan Market Transition and the Persistence of Power: The Changing Strification System in U rban China. American Sociological Review 61: [ G ] ( 2). :. [B ian, Yanjie and L i Yu The Social Network Cap ital of Chinese U rban Fam ilies. Tsinghua Sociological Review (2). Xiamen: Lujiang Publishing House. ] [ J ]. ( 2). [B ian, Yanjie and ZhangW enhong Econom ic Institution, Social Network and OccupationalMobility. Social Sciences in China (2). ( in Chinese) ] B lau, PeterM. and Danqing Ruan Inequality of Opportunity in U rban China and America. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 9: Deng, Zhong and Donald J. Treiman The Impact of the Cultural Revolution on Trends in Educational A ttainment in the Peop le s Republic of China. American Journal of Sociology 103: Duncan, O tis Dudley, David L. Featherman, and Beverly Duncan Socioeconom ic Background and Achievement. New York: Sem inar Press. Erikson, Robert John H. Goldthorpe and Lucienne Portocarero Intergenerational Class Mobility in Three W estern European Societies: England, France and Sweden. The B ritish Journal of Sociology, Vol. 30, No. 4 ( Special Issue ). Current Research on Social Stratification. Fischer. Claude S., M ichael Hout, Mart n S nchez Jankowski, Samuel R. Lucas, Ann Swidler, and Kim Vos Inequality by Design: Cracking the Bell Curve M yth. N. J. : Princeton University Press. Granovetter, Mark Econom ic Action and Social Structure: the Problem of Embeddedness. American Journal of Sociology 91: The Strength of W eak Ties. American Journal of Sociology 78:

20 1380. Griliches, Zvi and W illiam M. Mason Education, Income, and Ability. The Journal of Political Economy 80: Heckman, James J. Economy 103: Lessons from the Bell Curve. The Journal of Political Herrnstern, R. J. and M urray, C The Bell Curve2Inteliigence and Class Structure in American L ife. New York: The Free Press. L i, Bohai and Andrew G. W alder Career Advancement as Party Patronage: Sponsored Mobility into the Chinese Adm inistrative Elite, American Journal of Sociology 106: : [ J ]. ( 2 ). [L i Lulu Social Rep roduction and Dom inance: Further Study on Social Mobility Regimes. Sociological Studies (2). ( in Chinese) ] L in, Nan. 1999, Social Networks and Status A ttainment. Annual Review of Sociology 25: L in, Nan and W en Xie. Journal of Sociology 93: Occupational Prestige in U rban China. American L in, Nan and B ian Yanjie Getting Ahead in U rban China. American Journal of Sociology 97: L ip set, S. M. and Zetterberg, H A Theory of Social Mobility: Transactions of Long, J. the Third World Congress of Sociology: Vol.. London: International Sociological A ssociation. Scott and Jeremy Freese Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables U sing Stata. Chap ters 3 and 4. College Station, TX: Stata Press : [M ]. :. [ Lu Yilong Household Registration Systen: Social Control and Social D ifferentiation. Beijing: The Commercial Press. ] [ J ]. (1). [Lu Yilong Does Hukou still Matter? The Household Registration System and Its impact on Social Stratification and Mobility in China. Social Sciences in China ( 1). ( in Chinese) ] McCullagh, P Regression Models foro rdinaldata (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), Vol. 42, Issue 2: Powell, W alter W. and Laurel Sm ith2doerr Networks and Econom ic L ife. 107

21 Pp in The Handbook of Econom ic Sociology, edited by Neil J. Smelser and R ichard Swedberg. Princeton and New York: Princeton University Press and Russell Sage Foundation [ J ]. ( 2). [ Sun L ip ing, W ang Hansheng, W ang Sibin, L in B in, and Yang Shanhua The Change of Social Structure of China Science Reform. Social Sciences in China ( 2). ( in Chinese) ] W alder, A. G Communist Neo2Traditionalism: Work and Authority in Chinese Industry. Berkeley: University of California Press. W u, Xiaogang Work Units and Income Inequality: The Effect of Market Transition in U rban China. Social Forces 80: W u, Xiaogang and Donald J. Treiman The Household Registration System and Social Stratification in China Demography 41: [ J ]. ( 6 ). [W u Xiaogang The Chinese Household Registration and Intergenerational SocialMobility. Sociological Studies (6). ( in Chinese) ] :? [ J ]. ( 6). [ Yu Hong and L iu Xin The Work Unit and IntergenerationalMobility: Is the Work Unit System Declining? Sociological Studies (6). ( in Chinese) ] : 108

2001 2,, (Devine & Kiefer, 1991), :, ;,,,,?, 300, 57 % ( Granovetter, 1974),, ( Fernan2 dez & Weinberg, 1997) :,, ( Granovetter, 1973),,,,,,,, (Lin, 1

, 4, 1999,, 3 :,,, 1955,,, ;, 1963, 3,,,, 1956 1999 43,?,? 1999, 4,,,, 20 70, ( Granovetter),, 30, (), ( Information Asymmetry), 77 2001 2,, (Devine & Kiefer, 1991), :, ;,,,,?, 300, 57 % ( Granovetter,