: 3 : 1995 2002, 1998 2002 1991 1995, 1991 1995,, 1998 2002, :, 80 013 0145 (Ravallion Chen, 2004 ; Khan Riskin, 2005,Yue et al, 2006),, (,2003 ;,2006),, (Li et al,1998),,,?,, ( Fields, 2005),,, (income mobility),,,,,,, 3, :100875 :yheng @bnu. edu. cn ;,, :100836, 30
2006 10,, Khor Pencavel (2005) 1995, 1990 1995, (2005) (CHN) 1989 1997, 1995 2002, 90, 90, 90,, 1998 2002,,,1991 1995,, ; ; 1995 2002 12 () 7000 2, 4, (1991 1995 1998 2002 ) (1995 2002 21 ),, (2002 1), 1991 1995 1998 2002, 13383 13529, Khor Pencavel (2005), 21 68 2002, ( ), 015 % 015 %, 9423, Khor Pencavel 1995, 5,,, 30,, Zhou(2000), 1993 1994 5000, 1955 1993 11 31
:,, ( ), 30,,,,,,, (),,,, p ij i, j, : n,,,,,,,,, :, 65 % ;, 65 % 95 % ;, 95 % 125 % ;, 125 % 155 % ;, 155 %, ( ),,,, 5 5, : 1 5 j - i p ij 5 j = 1 5 i = 1 i, j, : 1 5 p jj 5 j = 1, ( ) : 1 5 5 i +1 p ij i = 1 j = i - 1, p 10 = p 56 = 0 ( 012 ) : 32 2 = ij 012 ( p ij - 012) 2
2006 10, (),,5 1160, 0120, 0152, 0,, (),,, ( ),A B 8 2, 013,, 2 8, 013,, 0 ( 0),,,, ( 1),,,1991 1995,1998 2002,, 1 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 01321 01311 01304 01300 01305 013397 013318 013310 013383 013411 90 Π10 41000 41000 31646 31652 31873 41286 41167 41432 41500 41734 01282 01276 01269 01264 01274 013413 013300 013275 013343 013349 90 Π10 31711 31636 31500 31415 31551 41233 41211 41500 41571 41654 : 1991 1995 Khor Pencavel (2005),, ( 2),,,2002 01341, 2001 2002 2193 %,2000 2002 4170 %, 1998 2002 6145 %,1998 2002,1991 1995 ( ), 5 5 : 1 5 ( p 11 + p 12 + p 21 + p 22 + p 23 + 5 i+1 p 32 + p 33 + p 34 + p 43 + p 44 + p 45 + p 54 + p 55 ) 1 5 p ij p 10 p 56, p 10 = p 56 = 0 i = 1 j = i- 1 33
:,1991 1995 1995 7137 %,,1998 2002 2002 5167 %, 1991 1995 8176 %, :1998 2002 90 2 90 Π 10 1998 2002 ( ) 2002 01341 41734 01665 2001 2002 01331 (2193) 41517 (4158) 01620 (6177) 2000 2002 01325 (4170) 41344 (8124) 01604 (9117) 1999 2002 01321 (5187) 41218 (10190) 01593 (10183) 1998 2002 01319 (6145) 41160 (12113) 01585 (12103) 1991 1995 ( ) 1995 01306 31873 01606 1994 1995 01289 (5188) 31531 (9169) 01550 (10118) 1993 1995 01286 (6199) 31439 (12162) 01537 (12185) 1992 1995 01285 (7137) 31410 (13158) 01532 (13191) 1991 1995 01285 (7137) 31420 (13125) 01531 (14112) 1998 2002 ( ) 2002 01335 41654 01636 2001 2002 01325 (2199) 41473 (3189) 01601 (5150) 2000 2002 01320 (4148) 41329 (6198) 01588 (7155) 1999 2002 01317 (5137) 41203 (9169) 01578 (9112) 1998 2002 01316 (5167) 41168 (10144) 01574 (9175) 1991 1995 ( ) 1995 01274 31551 01548 1994 1995 01256 (6160) 31261 (8117) 01488 (10195) 1993 1995 01251 (8139) 31204 (9177) 01473 (13169) 1992 1995 01250 (8176) 31170 (10173) 01466 (14196) 1991 1995 01250 (8176) 31194 (10105) 01463 (15151) :11 ; 21 1990 1995 Khor Pencavel (2005) (), 1, (1995 2002 ) (1991 1998 ), 34
2006 10, 1,, :1991 1995, 1998 2002,, ;, : 1998 2002, 1991 1995 1 1, : ln y i = + gy i +, ln y i = ln y i, - ln y i,,gy i i 3,,1 :1991 1995,gy i, ; 1998 2002,gy i,, gy i, 1998 2002 1991 1995 3 OLS ( : ) 1998 2002 ( ) 1991 1995 ( ) 1998 2002 ( ) 1991 1995 ( ) 01251 01223 01312 01971 t 28105 22161 29160 881273 0100094-0100092 0100044Q - 010016 t 6111-5142 2143-8 R 2 010027 010022 010006 01007 : 1990 1995 ( ) Khor Pencavel (2005) 58 (),4 1991 1995 1998 2002,,, 35
:,1998 20 %, 20 % 63 %, 20 % 63 % 1998 2 3 4, 41 % 36 % 42 %,,,1991 20 %, 46 %,1998 2002 17,1991 20 % 54 %,1998 2002 9, 2 3 4 27 % 24 % 27 %, 1998 2002 14 12 15 4,, 90,1998 2002 4 1998 2002 ( ) 1998 2002 ( ) 2002 2002 1998 0163 0124 0108 0104 0102 0124 0141 0121 0110 0104 1998 0160 0125 0108 0104 0102 0126 0139 0122 0110 0104 0107 0125 0136 0123 0109 0103 0106 0127 0142 0123 0107 0127 0133 0124 0110 0103 0107 0127 0139 0124 0102 0103 0108 0124 0163 0102 0102 0107 0121 0167 1991 1995 ( ) 1991 1995 ( ) 1995 1995 1991 0146 0123 0117 0110 0105 0127 0127 0121 0118 0108 1991 0144 0122 0118 0112 0105 0128 0126 0120 0116 0110 0114 0126 0124 0121 0114 0106 0119 0126 0127 0122 0119 0124 0123 0121 0117 0108 0121 0125 0125 0122 0102 0104 0113 0127 0154 0102 0107 0114 0127 0150 :11 1, 21 1990 1995 ( ) Khor Pencavel (2005) 49 50, 5,,,, ( ),, () () 5,,1998 2002 : 36
2006 10,1998 2002 1991 1995 2916 % 2417 % 2919 % 2816 %, 3611 % 3313 % 3513 % 4119 %, 1610 % 1313 % 1813 % 2013 %, 10817 % 11719 % 13311 % 16514 %, 5 : A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D 1998 2002 ( ) 1998 2002 ( ) 1991 1995 ( ) 1991 1995 ( ) 0169 0173 0175 0180 0149 0148 0146 0144 0187 0185 0184 0183 3182 4127 3124 2184 0170 0174 0177 0182 0148 0147 0145 0142 0187 0185 0184 0182 3176 3182 3117 2165 0198 0197 1107 1112 0136 0136 0134 0131 0175 0175 0171 0169 1183 1196 1139 1107 1106 1103 1114 0133 0135 0131 0171 0173 0168 1140 :11 A2 ;B2 ;C2, ;D2, 21 Khor Pencavel (2005) 51 52 53 :1998 2002 1991 1995??,, 90, 6,, 1991 1995,1998 2002, : ;,, ; ( ) ; ( ) ) ; :, ( ) ( ) ) ( 40 ) ( 40 ) ; ( ) ; ( ), ; (1995,2002 ) ; (1995, 2002 ) ; ; (2002 ) ; (1995,,,2002,, ) ; ( ) 37
:,,1991 1995,1998 2002 312 %,, 4113 %4418 %,, 6 1991 1995 ( ) 1998 2002 ( ) 13502 0198 0136 0175 1183 13529 0169 0149 0187 3182 6965 11006 01352 01734 11720 7091 01712 01474 01854 31532 6537 11006 01368 01736 11742 6438 01690 01486 01868 31744 5066 01968 01362 01758 11853 5130 01694 01496 01866 31827 8436 01976 01360 01746 11831 8399 01708 01464 01864 31467 2795 11066 01326 01718 11450 3569 01774 01438 01840 31155 9132 01976 01366 01746 11847 8857 01722 01478 01860 31501 1575 01902 01370 01772 21099 1103 01668 01532 01868 41227 2674 01986 01364 01750 11747 3707 01640 0152 0188 41275 6831 01978 01368 01740 11833 5642 01724 01464 0186 31397 3841 11052 01342 0171 11497 3545 01754 01458 01844 31368 7485 11006 01354 01724 11678 5713 01728 01456 01856 31456 3187 01994 01354 01730 11759 3732 01708 01474 01860 31702 3228 11052 01346 01704 11569 2974 0184 01416 01786 31095 5228 01958 01358 01746 11871 3316 01668 01482 01872 31844 1426 01958 01374 01762 21026 608 01740 01456 01826 31754 106 01944 01306 01822 21961 1634 01708 01498 01848 31955 5097 01976 01370 01742 11841 2452 01806 01434 01812 31428 1705 01996 01364 01738 11770 1076 01724 01484 01834 31601 600 11088 01328 01700 11611 742 01714 01504 01858 31799 199 01934 01328 01772 21587 246 01716 01468 01866 41160 479 01790 01442 01814 31661 1307 01686 01484 01878 31849 1792 11058 01332 01716 11548 1487 01746 01456 01840 31463 1448 11030 01346 01716 11516 1166 01834 01414 01814 2184, 1998 2002,,,,,, 38
2006 10,,,,, 7,,1991 1995 3518 %,1998 2002 49 %, 1312 1998 2002, : 90,?? 90,?? 7 1991 1995,, 815 315, 1991 (21117 %), 1995 (29139 %) 1991 1995, ( 4018 % 3819 % 3513 %), 1517 1817 1012,, 815 213,, 2111 1212 1216 1112, 911 311 416 410,,1991 1995, :, 1998 2002,,, 1215 715 712,, 214, 2518 2410 2219 1414, 1915 1118 312, 1998 2002,, (2002 ) 4013 % 3314 % 3015 %, 015 3 217 ;, 4018 % 3415 % 3613 %, 1312 913 6 39
: 7 ( %) 1991 1995 ( ) 1998 2002 ( ) 20 20 35175 31184 32141 20 20 20 20 49102 25146 25152 20 20 14175 23191 35103 33160 31137 13127 25115 13140 24188 47179 25143 26178 13151 25107 25161 13188 36152 30100 33152 27121 14149 27159 13148 50137 25151 24112 27115 14110 14159 30162 39120 30138 30142 14113 32189 13128 32111 51199 21183 26118 14117 30137 23126 12110 33168 32172 33161 23155 12125 24135 11173 47121 27168 25111 23156 13143 12181 28116 34167 38125 27108 7101 32117 9116 30132 48187 32175 18138 6105 36131 20105 17149 35117 31190 32193 20139 18122 22113 16174 48105 23151 28144 23110 15111 32151 11194 41102 20113 38186 40195 8164 39180 6107 57130 17159 25111 40125 4171 21117 15152 34107 25113 40180 29139 13154 24185 14116 52115 20131 27154 24195 11160 23138 16150 36153 30190 32156 22184 16153 21106 17133 47106 26173 26121 20112 17128 11195 26145 35100 38182 26122 6148 31106 10132 29156 49103 31126 19172 8107 35109 22115 16166 35144 33128 31128 19184 17137 19152 18112 46189 29160 23151 17159 19180 12149 28111 37118 34186 27196 10117 32107 13169 27176 49136 25188 24176 13145 29177 16136 23192 33136 40134 26130 8130 27123 10153 25186 47131 37179 14190 6122 34153 17185 19147 36100 32188 31114 17102 20187 14184 21166 48188 24188 26124 14129 21159 29117 11122 39148 25118 35134 32168 11115 30176 11151 51100 18126 30177 33172 9187 27136 31113 44134 34100 21170 17192 39162 21124 21148 46145 23144 30111 21118 18191 20199 15154 36122 29143 34135 23145 15197 19170 14193 46162 24172 28167 19186 14197 24199 16177 38136 28180 32184 27116 17142 27179 19180 48133 18168 32199 30148 14196 Π 16133 26150 35167 30183 33150 16133 23150 12140 25174 49173 25147 24180 11159 25120 14107 26113 31166 44172 23162 11106 35118 9135 44172 50141 23117 26142 6150 36118 Π 25105 20146 43163 30148 25189 24163 26193 23172 21158 48105 25194 26101 21135 19159 14106 27129 33137 36144 30119 8109 27179 9121 27157 50130 37173 11197 6119 40175 17113 23120 32125 39199 27176 9160 23134 10121 25100 45163 39119 15118 5106 32159 :11 ; ( ) 21, 1995 2002, 1998 2002 1991 1995,,,1991 1995 40
2006 10, 1998 2002,,,,,,,,1991 1995,,,,,,2003 :, ( ) 2 (2),2006 :, 3 2,2005 :, 1 Fields, Gary, 2005,The Many Facets of Economic Mobility, Working Paper, July1 Khan, Aziz and Carl Riskin, 2005,Household Income and its Distribution in China, 1995 and 2002, China Quarterly, June1 Khor,Niny and John Pencavel, 2005,Income Mobility of Individuals in China and The United States, Department of Economics, Stanford University, unpublished paper, October1 Li, Hongyi, Lyn Squire and Heng2fu Zou,1998,Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality, Economic Journal, 108, 26 431 Ravallion, Martin and Shaohua Chen, 2004,China s (Uneven) Progress Against Poverty, World Bank, June 161 Yue, Ximing, Terry Sicular, Li Shi and Bjgrn Gustafsson, 2006, Explaining Incomes and Inequality in China, included in Bjgrn Gustafsson, Li Shi and Terry Sicular eds. Inequality and Public Policy in China, to be published by Cambridge University Press. Zhou, Xueguang, 2000,Economic Transformation and Income Inequality in Urban China : Evidence from Panel Data, American Journal of Sociology, 105, 1135 1174. : 2002, 1995 Khor Pencavel (2005) 2002 16100,1280 ;20 0 ;1205 1998 2002 0 2505 2002 1 1, 30,,,,, : 1, 0 : 30 60 ( 30 60 ) ;agel 30 1, 0 ;ageh 60 1, 0 : ( ) ;education1 1, 0 ;education2 1, 0 ;education3 ( ) 1, 0 ;education4 1, 0 ;education5 1, 0 race 1, 0 sex 1, 0 Khor Pencavel (2005),, 1990 1995 21 %, 615 %714 %, 1990 1995 1998 2002 ( 6814 % 5017 % 8710 %),, 41
: marriage ( ) 1, 0 : ( ) ;station1 ( ( ) ) 1, 0 ;station2 ( ) 1, 0 ;station3 ( ) 1, 0 ;station4 ( ) 1, 0 probit 2 1 % % % % 30 60 ( ) 74148 42130 30 11194 43177 60 13158 13194 ( ) 2187 9139 7148 10198 27174 25168 24160 21113 28173 22180 8158 10102 48195 30195 51105 69105 85175 54115 14125 45185 ( ) 40165 22191 22189 7155 22159 2128 5176 17178 8111 49148 4110 4119 :16100, :2505 95190 95181 :15155 % 2 % t % t agel 3 3-18134 - 5167 race 3 1110 2114 ageh 1101 1180 sex 3 3-3151 - 4157 education1 0119 0122 marriage 3 3-7121 - 4171 education2-0109 - 0111 station1 3 3 1114 2196 education3 0172 0185 station2 3 3 2116 3165 education4 1121 1144 station3 3 3-31182 - 8101 education5 0171 0179 station4 3 3-81151 - 33167 % 96195-3173105 R 2 01544 : (1) 3 3 3 5 %1 % ; (2) 0 ; (3) 0 1, 0 42
2006 10 2, 30 station4 ( ) station3 ( ) agel ( 30 ) marriage ( ) sex( ) 30 60, 96195 %, 2002, 15144 %, 81151 ; 2002, 65113 %, 31182 ; 30, 18134 7121 3151, ( ), 30,,, Income Mobility in Urban China Yin Heng, Li Shi and Deng Quheng ( Economic Department, Bejing Normal University ; Institute of Economics, CASS) Abstract: Using the large sample datasets in 1995 and 2002 s China Household Income Surveys conducted by Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, this paper studies income mobility in urban China1 The results indicate that income mobility is lower between 1998 and 2002 than that in the period from 1991 to1995, which occurs for all population groups1 Further breakdown reveals that less educated persons, retirees and employees of collective enterprises fell into the lower income stratum, while employees in financial sectors, government and institutions and managers moved to the higher income stratum between 1991 and 1995, which continued into the period from 1998 to 2002. High income mobility between 1991 and 1995 seems to be ephemeral under economic transition. With the increased stabilization of economic structure, however, income mobility in urban China decreased. Key Words : Income Mobility ; Income Distribution ; Inequality JEL Classification :O150, J310 ( : ) ( : ) 43