2007 7 6 002142 8.2 ~10.5 : 13.6~16.5 10 (0755) 82416978 22%30% shaozq@pasc.com.cn 95% 075522626813 30% www.nbcb.com.cn 450 37.6%~38.4% ( ) 2500 A (%) 18 ( ) 35750 56% (%) 10.80 (%) 10.00 8.2~10.5 PB 11.8 PE 9.9 DDM 17.6 EVA 20.9 GORDEN 11.3 BVPS() 1.56 14.3 2007 BVPS() 2.95 13.6~16.5 8.2~10.5 2006 ROE(%) 24% 2007 ROE(%) 15% PE PB 12 31 ( ) ( ) ( ) (%) () () () () () (%) 2005 1,231 690 472 7.5 0.19 1.22 75.8 11.8 0.12 0.82 2006 1,601 874 632 34.0 0.25 1.56 56.6 9.2 0.00 0.00 2007F 1,970 1,097 808 27.9 0.32 2.95 44.2 4.8 0.08 0.57 2008F 2,585 1,435 1,131 39.9 0.45 3.40 31.6 4.2 0.11 0.79 2009F 3,082 1,788 1,445 27.8 0.58 3.98 24.7 3.6 0.14 1.01 14.3
...3 1.... 3 2.... 4 3.... 5 4.... 5...5...7...8 1. 10... 8 2. 95% 9 3.... 10 4.... 10 5.... 11...12...14 2/15
1. APB A A 2007 4 2007 3 4.3 4 2007 IPO 2.95 11.8 1 PB 20070706 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F 600036 23.67 3.75 4.48 5.53 6.84 6.3 5.3 4.3 3.5 601166 32.35 4.05 7.38 8.92 10.84 8.0 4.4 3.6 3.0 600016 11.14 1.90 3.24 3.81 4.53 5.9 3.4 2.9 2.4 600000 33.55 5.67 6.75 8.31 10.27 5.9 5.0 4.0 3.3 600015 10.65 2.77 3.29 3.98 4.80 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.2 601988 4.86 1.53 1.75 2.06 2.44 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 601398 4.98 1.44 1.55 1.79 2.08 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.4 601998 8.51 1.02 1.80 2.02 2.30 8.3 4.7 4.2 3.7 601328 10.45 1.93 2.53 2.98 3.53 5.4 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.2 6.2 4.3 3.6 3.0 5.6 4.0 3.4 2.8 BPE A A 30.9 24.6 32.8 30.9 2007 0.32 9.9 2 PE 20070706 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F 600036 23.67 0.48 0.73 1.05 1.31 49.0 32.6 22.5 18.0 601166 32.35 0.76 1.06 1.54 1.92 42.7 30.5 21.0 16.8 600016 11.14 0.38 0.40 0.58 0.72 29.3 27.5 19.0 15.2 600000 33.55 0.77 1.08 1.56 1.95 43.6 31.1 21.5 17.2 600015 10.65 0.35 0.52 0.69 0.82 30.7 20.5 15.5 12.9 601988 4.86 0.17 0.22 0.31 0.37 28.6 21.8 15.6 13.0 601398 4.98 0.15 0.18 0.24 0.29 34.1 27.3 20.7 17.2 601998 8.51 0.10 0.15 0.22 0.28 89.1 55.8 38.5 30.8 601328 10.45 0.26 0.33 0.45 0.55 40.4 31.3 23.2 19.0 31.4 24.6 18.1 15.1 46.4 32.8 23.0 18.6 43.1 30.9 21.9 17.8 3/15
2. 5 2009 5 5% 10 5% 2035 4% 11.65% 17.6 20.9 11.3 3 12007-2009 25% 11.65% 22010-2014 2009 5% 30% 11.65% 32015-2024 2014 5% 35% 11.65% 42025-2034 2024 5% 40% 11.65% 5 2% 50% 11.65% ADDM 4 DDM 2007 808 43919 2500 17.6 = BEVA 5 EVA 2007 808 2007 7379 ROE% 18.4% % 11.65% EVA 44839 52218 =+ 2500 20.9 = C. 1 7 3.4209% 2 7.5% 3β1 4ROA 2006 1.1% 5 / 7.5% 6 40% 3.83 2007 2.95 11.3 4/15
6 3.4% 7.5% Beta 1.1 11.65% ROA 1.2% / 7.5% ROE 16.54% / 40% G 9.9% = 1 PB () 3.83 3. PB 4 PB 11.8 PE 31 PE 9.9 DDM 17.6 EVA 20.9 GORDEN 3.83 PB 11.3 14.3 13.6~16.5 4. 2007 14.3 7 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.5 20% 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 25% 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 30% 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 35% 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 40% 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 45% 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.0 50% 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 55% 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 60% 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 65% 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 2006 181 8.48% 20071 113 2.68 5.8% 4.52 2006 1000 9 5/15
20063 20071 4.52% 2001 10 5% 8 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 WIND 9 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1-4% CEIC 6/15
1997 4 17 1 4 20.5 2006 2.5 12.2%10% 56% 68 2007 4 2006 12 31 565 462 281 9.8%7.2% + = 2006 IPO 10 270.00 13.17% 10.80% 218.01 10.63% 8.72% 250.00 12.20% 10.00% 900.77 43.94% 36.03% 397.78 19.40% 15.91% 13.45 0.66% 0.54% 11 270.00 13.17% 10.80% SS 250.00 12.20% 10.00% FLS 179.00 8.73% 7.16% LS 179.00 8.73% 7.16% LS 179.00 8.73% 7.16% LS 179.00 8.73% 7.16% SLS 179.00 8.73% 7.16% LS 60.84 2.97% 2.43% LS 54.00 2.63% 2.16% LS 22.01 1.07% 0.88% SLS 1551.85 75.69% 62.07% 830.84 40.52% 33.23% 1415.00 69.02% 56.60% 7/15
12 10 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 13 8 1 9 7 2 5 10 2 4-3 4 1 2 6 3 4 1 2 5 1. 10 20042006 22.47%24.77% 24.6%27.5% 2006 9.8%7.2% 2007 4 2 14 55.77% 50% 60% 40% 30% 20% 28.51% 24.60% 27.54% 18.32% 20.05% 22.13% 10% 0% 8/15
15 18% 16.60% 16% 14.80% 14% 11.60% 12.90% 12% 11.30% 10.70% 9.80% 10.20% 10% 8.40% 8% 7.20% 5.80% 5.90% 4.30% 6% 4.40% 3.20% 2.60% 4% 2.90% 2.60% 2% 0% 2. 95% 2006 186 92.9% 14.9% 0.34% 2004 2006 55.8% 28.9% 81.28 30% 16 2004 2005 2006 58.70% 58.30% 51.70% 15.60% 15.50% 14.40% 6.30% 6.30% 5.00% 19.40% 19.90% 28.90% 17 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2004 2005 2006 9/15
3. 2006 2006 12 31 7,701 738 340 15 2.5 10% 500 4. 37.6%~38.4% 18 \ 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 220 264 308 55% 57% 51% 125 140 215.9 31% 30% 36% 45 51.9 63.78 11% 11% 11% 9.4 9.7 14 2% 2% 2% 399 466 602 100% 100% 100% - 16.72% 29.23% - 16.72% 29.23% 38.38% 37.84% 37.59% 38.38% 37.84% 37.59% 19 45 40 40.59 37.86 35 30 28.67 33.16 25 20 15 10 16.67 20.2 5 0 0.390.45 10/15
20 1200 1000 965 800 600 400 820 425 408 731 669 200 0 9.919.16 5. 2006 0.33 2006 405 37% 40% 14 21 100% 500% 90% 80% 400% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 300% 200% 20% 100% 10% 0% 2004 2005 2006 0% 11/15
22 2006 2006 12.94% -1.83% 9.71% 16.72% -0.67% 14.25% 37.02% 0.04% 40.89% 11.98% -0.30% 10.86% 5.87% -2.00% 1.66% 9.06% -1.79% 2.47% 4.55% -2.20% -0.68% 10.96% 0.73% 13.64% 0.59% -0.23% 0.14% 8.18% 1.81% 14.86% 1.91% -0.41% 1.08% 4.27% 0.36% 5.58% 1.98% -0.87% -0.11% 3.86% 0.65% 6.25% 0.66% -0.39% -0.18% 5.57% 0.66% 8.02% 0.07% -0.01% -0.04% 0.76% -0.15% 0.19% 0.4% -1.11% -7.22% 16.9% -2.25% 8.58% 65.99% -9.01% 45.26% 88.25% -0.96% 84.70% 24.76% 8.51% 44.37% 9.78% 0.46% 11.47% 0.14% -0.07% -0.02% 0.11% -0.21% -0.65% 1.56% -0.05% 1.40% 1.27% 0.52% 3.20% 2.34% 0.57% 3.66% 0.11% -0.16% -0.48% 0.1% 0.01% 0.09% 0.5% 0.34% 1.76% 28.9% 8.96% 49.49% 11.8% 0.96% 15.30% 23 12 31 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 1,656 2,219 2,933 3,955 5,046-491 -736-1,115-1,568-2,223 1,165 1,483 1,818 2,387 2,823 90 128 172 224 292-21 -16-22 -28-37 69 112 150 195 255-4 6 2 3 3 1,231 1,601 1,970 2,585 3,082-542 -703-873 -1,150-1,293 689 898 1,097 1,435 1,788 690 874 1,097 1,435 1,788-36 -60-85 -127-142 654 814 1,012 1,308 1,646 472 632 808 1,131 1,445 12/15
24 12 31 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 4,508 7,528 8,347 8,625 8,735 1,511 971 1,175 1,433 1,791 7 0 2,306 1,083 259 175 251 365 492 631 19,285 27,763 40,328 54,351 69,798 15,456 17,524 18,443 19,365 20,333 8 8 33 66 99 159 164 180 198 218 529 573 917 1,375 1,925 15 11 16 20 24 57 41 37 33 30 720 1,712 1,640 5,580 15,612 42,429 56,546 73,786 92,621 119,456 39 139 168 205 256 37 0 0 0 0 1,600 5,000 8,000 12,800 20,480 37,521 46,191 55,892 68,188 85,235 371 388 469 573 716 17 21 25 30 36 657 1,611 1,853 2,316 2,779 40,242 53,350 66,407 84,112 109,502 1,800 2,050 2,500 2,500 2,500 387 1,146 4,879 6,010 7,454 2,187 3,196 7,379 8,510 9,954 42,429 56,546 73,786 92,621 119,456 25 12 31 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 472 632 808 1,131 1,445 36 60 85 127 142 52 64 83 104 135-5 3 5 5 6 1,427-1,114-2,406 1,045 1,601 1,981-356 -1,425 2,412 3,328-84 -147-349 -462-554 1,897-503 -1,774 1,951 2,774-29 -210 0-202 -283 0 570 3,375 0 0-29 360 3,375-202 -283 1,868-143 1,601 1,749 2,491 3,525 5,393 5,250 6,851 8,599 5,393 5,250 6,851 8,599 11,091 13/15
26 12 31 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F % 22.98% 27.29% 22.58% 31.28% 18.29% -28.60% 79.53% 33.96% 29.05% 29.55% 18.58% 24.45% 24.37% 29.22% 25.86% 17.79% 26.63% 25.64% 30.78% 24.60% 11.61% 24.45% 24.37% 29.22% 25.86% 7.55% 34.01% 27.90% 39.89% 27.77% 7.55% 17.67% 4.87% 39.89% 27.77% % 56.06% 54.57% 55.70% 55.53% 58.03% 53.14% 50.84% 51.37% 50.60% 53.42% 38.32% 39.47% 41.02% 43.74% 46.88% ROA 1.23% 1.28% 1.24% 1.36% 1.36% ROE 23.99% 23.48% 15.28% 14.23% 15.65% 3.33% 3.02% 3.03% 3.06% 2.95% 3.26% 2.94% 3.05% 3.05% 3.05% % 0.61% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% 271.66% 405.32% 406.66% 406.97% 407.28% 1.65% 1.32% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% % 8.68% 9.70% 11.60% 10.72% 9.75% 10.81% 11.48% 12.86% 11.51% 10.50% / 46.22% 49.76% 55.39% 59.47% 59.22% 49.61% 57.79% 69.77% 77.21% 79.42% / 41.16% 25.09% 25.00% 20.91% 17.02% / 5.15% 5.65% 10.00% 9.19% 8.33% / 82.58% 86.81% 81.42% 84.11% 80.12% 14/15
2007 518029 4008866338 (0755) 82449257