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1 20 90 John Knight Simon App leton ,, Probit :,, ;,, 1994, 1997, 4 ( ) 1 /4, , 20. 7% 13. 2% 940, 540, 8. 2% 1999, 5. 6%, Knight (1999a b) 1995, 3 : : qingjie. xia@pku. edu. cn; : : L ina. Song@nottingham. ac. uk; John Knight: : John. Knight@ econom ics. ox. ac. uk; Simon App leton: : Simon. App leton@nottingham. ac. uk 2003, 2818 (, 2004) (, 2004)

2 ,,, :,;,, 1995 : 1999,, 1995,,, ;, 90 Dong Bowles(2002),,,,??,,??,? (App leton et al., 2004; App leton et al., 2005; Cai et al., 2002; Gileset et al., 2006; Knight and L i, 2005; Knight and Song, ; Meng, 2000), :,? : ( 90 ),,,?,,, ( Knight and L i, 2006; Sicular et al., 2007;, 2007),, : (1), ; (2), ; (3) John Knight Simon App leton

3 20 90,Probit,, ( ),,, 2000 ( 6 13 ), 4000 (500 ), (800 ) 13,, ( 2000 CASS ), CASS , : ( 1), 1992, ( 2) 1992 (3) 1992, 2000 CASS (3) (2) (4), 2000 CASS 7994, 5770, 1159 ( 726, 433 ), 1065,, ; 9. 9, 8. 2, ; 21. 7, 18. 4,, 0. 59, 2000 CASS(CASS) , 96. 1% 1992, (1991 9, ) ; , 127, ,,

4 63%,44% ; 41% 1 /3,,, ( ),( sem i - log)k i : LnW i = k X i + i (1) W, X,X, 8,, 8,, 60,,,1999,,, M incery (M incer, 1974) M incery,, M incery, M incery,, M incery, ( ) M incery M incery,,,,,,, Probit (U i = 1) : John Knight Simon App leton U 3 i = X i + S S i + V i

5 20 90 U i = 1 U3 i > 0 0 (2), V i N (0, 1) Probit, Probit,,,,M inceryx i ( M incery ),, S i,,,,,,, S i 1 Probit,,, Sargan Heckman, : E (LnW i U i = 1) = k X i + E ( i U i = 1) = k X i i V i, i + < ( X i + S S i ) / ( X i + S S i ) (3) (1) i, k, i : i = < ( ax i + a S S i ) / ( ax i + a S S i ), U i = 1 (4) a i i V i, : i = - < ( ax i + a S S i ) / [ 1 - ( ax i + a S S i ) ], U i = 0 (4 ) :,, Probit : R 3 i = X i + I I i + i R i = 1 R3 i > 0 0 (5) i N (0, 1),,, :M incery X Probit, I i,,,(,, 1 ( 1992 ) ;

6 John Knight Simon App leton ), Probit, : g 2 i = < ( gx i + g I I i ) / ( gx i + g I I i ) (6) i 2 i, : LnW i = R X i 1 i i (7), (Madda2 la, 1983), ( bivariate) Probit i V i, Probit, i V i 5%,,, ( ) (Meyer, 1990) ( right censoring),,, ( hazard rate) h i ( t), t - 1, t T i, i t : h i ( t) = L im { [ P r( t + > T 0 + i t T i t) ] / } (8) (p roportional hazard model), Z i ( baseline hazard), h 0 ( t) : h i ( t) Z i, = h 0 ( t) exp{ Z i } (9) (9),,, ( emp irical hazard), ( W eibull ) ( ) ( duration dependence) ( ( lognormal) ( log - lo2 gistic) ),, ( ), Prentice - Gloeckler (1978) ( grouped duration model), (9),,,, U, (F p 0. 45), ( ), Cox (1972) Cox ( heavy ties) (Cox and Oakes, 1984), Prentice - Gloeckler,

7 20 90, ( - ( log - in2 tegrated) ) (, ) Meyer(1990)Prentice - Gloeckler (Lancaster, 1979; Heckman and Singer, 1984) : Meyer i, (, i ) : h i ( t) i ( gamma), 1, 2 = i h 0 ( t) exp{ Z i } (10) ( ) 1992 Probit 6929, 1159 (16% ) , , 11. 4%,? 1 Probit, Probit, ( likelihood ratio) 0. 18, ( the percentage of correct p rediction) 84%,, (p redicted p roba2 bilities), ( base p robability) 22. 9% (11. 4% ), 1, :, (26% ), 34%, 16%,,, 19%,, 25% 30% ( survival analysis) ( duration analysis) 4000, 747 (18. 7% ) 503, 18. 7%, 0. 6 ( 0. 6 ( ) / ( ( ) ) = ) Probit,

8 John Knight Simon App leton 1 Prob it t () ( ) () () () () () () : 1%, 33 5%, 3 10%,

9 20 90 (20% ) (26% ), 0. 76%, 10 8% U,26 22,,,,(OECD ) OECD, U (N ickell, 1980) 5%, 6%,,,, ( ),,, : (55% ), :10, 18 ( ), (63% ) 24 (19 ),, ( ),, ( noise) ( ), ( negative duration dependence), ( ) ( hazard rate),, ( ) ( ),,, Prentice - Gloeckler ( ), P (1 - P),, P 118, 118, 70,, , 53%,( ),,

10 John Knight Simon App leton 2 Pren tice - Gloeckler Probit t , (), , : , , Prentice - Glo eckler : 1%, 33 5%, 3 10% ( 3 4 ) ( ) = , : 6%, Zhang (2002),, 40% 20 90, ( Svejnar, 1999) U,, 32,,, Jenkins (1997) Pgmhaz STATA Prentice - Gloeckler - Meyer (9), 1 exp ( ) - 1,

11 20 90, 59 7, 7, 23%,,, 56% 1984,, ( ), () 1 /3,,,, ( Svejnar, 1999),,,,, 1999 / , 544, :, ( ),: M incery( 3),M incery ( 4), M incery W ald M incery,1%,,, W ald 5% : ( 1-2 ) / (V ar( 1 ) + Var( 2 ) ) 2 (1) (11), 1 2,,, 3 M incery,,r , R B reusch - Pagan,, W hite 2001,, M incery,

12 John Knight Simon App leton 3 M incery() ( ) (44. 42) (8. 72) (8. 45) (14. 49) (9. 75) (5. 11) (2. 05) 33 (5. 12) (10. 61) (0. 44) (12. 13) (3. 99) (1. 32) ( ) ( ) (0. 41) (1. 54) ( ) (4. 68) ( ) ( ) ( ) (10. 77) (0. 60) (2. 88) (4. 64) ( ) (3. 21) ( ) (1. 22) (2. 14) (0. 88) ( ) ( ) (2. 45) (0. 23) ( ) ( ) 3 ( ) (1. 11) (1. 26) ( ) ( ) (1. 42) ( ) ( ) (6. 35) ( ) (0. 54) (2. 35) (0. 00) (1. 21) (0. 83) ( ) (0. 81) (1. 14) (2. 47) ( ) (1. 74) 3 (2. 21) ( ) 33 ( ) (6. 08) (1. 21) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0. 12) (0. 16) (1. 64) ( ) ( ) 33 (0. 72) ( ) ( ) 3 (0. 48) ( ) ( ) (1. 12) ( ) ( ) 33 ( ) ( ) (0. 56) ( ) (0. 57) ( ) (0. 53) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) R : t, tw hite, :1999 CASS

13 M incery () ( ) (43. 79) (9. 07) (11. 60) (15. 34) (10. 45) (5. 56) (2. 28) 33 (5. 52) (20. 61) (1. 20) (4. 08) (5. 73) (11. 67) (3. 68) (1. 25) ( ) ( ) (0. 49) (3. 48) ( ) (1. 59) ( ) ( ) (1. 44) (9. 61) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3. 05) (0. 93) ( ) ( ) R : t, tw hite, :1999 CASS, Probit Probit,,,, ;,,,, ( ), (OLS), (, ),,,, ;,

14 John Knight Simon App leton :M incery ( 4), M incerian 6% ( 3),,,,,,,, M incery (3. 6% ),, :, 1 /3 ( ),,,,, U M incery ( 4), 30, U,,,, 20 () (), 1. 2% 1. 3%, (1. 6% ),,, ( Idler, 1992; Idler and Kasl, 1991) :,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ), ( ),,, :,,, Zhang Song (2005) App leton (2009)

15 20 90,, ( ),, ( ),, 7% ; 20% 22%,,,,,, ;,, ( ),,, 8,, /, 8, , 4. 59, 62. 6%, ( = ),? ( counterfactual analysis), M incery( 4),,,, ( ) : E (W ) = exp ( X + (1 /2) 2 ) (12),W,, X,,,,

16 5 (, 8) : ; (12) :1999 CASS,, ( 5 ) ; , ( ), , ( ), 55% :, ;,,, 90% ( % [ ] / = 92% ), ( ), 12%, 8% (37. 36% [ ] / = 8% ) : ( ), (),,, John Knight Simon App leton,,,,17. 60,, 31% ( [ ] / = 0. 31), 5. 5 ( ) 1 /3,, , %, CP I29%, 43% ( ( ) ( ) )

17 20 90,,,, ( ) :,,,,,, ( ), :, %,,, ( ) ( ) Roy(1951),,,,,, ( ),, , %,, ( ), ( ), 53% 1992, 4,,,,,,,,,,,

18 John Knight Simon App leton,,, ;,, 1999,, %, 90%,, 31%,,,:,,,,,,,,,, ( ) ( ),,, : (2004) : ( ) (2004) : ( ), Song, L., App leton, S. (2007) : : , 9 App leton, S. ; Knight, J. ; Song, L. and Xia, Q. Contrasting Paradigm s: Segmentation and Competitiveness in the Formation of the Chinese LabourMarket. Journal of Chinese Econom ic and B usiness S tudies, 2004, 2 (3), pp The Econom ics of Communist Party Membership. Journal of D evelopm ent S tudies, App leton, S. ; Song, L. and Xia, Q. Has China Crossed the R iver? The Evolution ofw age Structure in U rban China during Reform and Re2 trenchment. Journal of Com parative Econom ics, 2005, 33 (4), pp Cai, F. ; W ang, D. and Du, Y. Regional D isparity and Econom ic Growth in China: The Impact of LaborMarket D istortions. China Eco2 nom ic R eview, 2002, 13, pp Cox, D. R. Regression Models and L ife Tables. Journal of Royal S tatistical Society Series B, 1972, 34, pp Cox, D. R. and Oakes, D. Analysis of Survival Data. London: Chapman and Hall, Dong, X. and Bowles, L. Segmentation and D iscrim ination in China s Emerging Industrial labourmarket. China Econom ic Review, 2002,

19 20 90 (2-3), pp Giles, J. ; Park, A. and Cai, F. Reemp loyment of D islocated Workers in U rban China: the Roles of Information and Incentives. Journal of Com parative Econom ics, 2006, 34 (3), pp Heckman, J. and Singer, B. A Method form inim izing the D istributional A ssump tions in Econometric Models for Duration Data. Econom etri2 ca, 1984, 52 (2), pp Idler, Ellen L. Self - assessed Health andmortality: a Review of Studies, in S. Maes; S. Leventhal and M. Johnston, editors, International Review of Health Psychology, New York: John W iley & Sons L td, 1992, pp Idler, Ellen L. and Kasl, Stanislav. Health Percep tion and Survival: Do Global Evaluations of Health Status Really PredictMortality? Jour2 nal of Gerontology, 1991, 46 (2), pp Jenkins, S. P. D iscrete Time Proportional Hazards Regression. STATA Technical B ulletin, 1997, 39, pp Knight, J. and L i, S. W ages, firm Profitability and LaborMarket Segmentation in U rban China. China Econom ic R eview, 2005, 16 (3), pp Three Poverties in U rban China. R eview of D evelopm ent Econom ics, 2006, 10 (3), pp Knight, John and Song, L ina. The Determ inants of U rban Income Inequality in China, O xford B ulletin of Econom ics and S tatistics, 1991, 53 (2), pp W hy U rban W ages D iffer in China. in Keith Griffin and Zhao Renwei eds., The D istribution of Incom e in China, London: Macm il2 lan, 1994, pp Knight, John; Song, L ina and Jia, S tudies, 1999 ( a), 35, pp Huaibin. Chinese Rural M igrants in U rban Enterp rises: Three Perspectives. Journal of D evelopm ent. Emp loyment Constraints and Sub - op timality in Chinese Enterp rises. O xford Econom ic Papers, 1999 ( b), 51, pp Lancaster, T. Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemp loyment. Econom etrica, 1979, 47 (3), pp Maddala, G. S. L im ited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econom ics. New York: Cambridge University Press, Meng, X. LabourM arket Reform in China. London: CUP, Meyer, B. Unemp loyment Insurance and Unemp loyment Spells. Econom etrica, 1990, 58, pp M incer, Jacob. Education, Em ploym ent and Earnings. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, N ickell, S. A Picture of Male Unemp loyment in the B ritain. Econom ic Journal, 1980, 90 (363), pp Prentice, R. and Gloeckler, L. Regression Analysis of Grouped SurvivalData with App lication to B reast CancerData. B iom etrics, 1978, 34, pp Roy, A. D. Some Thoughts on the D istribution of Earnings. O xford Econom ic Papers, 1951, 3: Svejnar, J. LaborMarkets in Transitional Central and European Econom ies, in O. A shenfelter, and D. Card eds., Handbook of Labor Eco2 nom ics, B, pp , Am sterdam: Elsevier (Chap ter 42). Sicular, T. ; Yue, X. ; Gustafsson, B. and L i, 2007, 53 (1), pp Zhang, L. ; Huang, J. Review, 2002, 13 (2-3), pp S. The U rban - rural Income Gap and Inequality in China. Review of Incom e and W ealth, and Rozelle, S. Emp loyment, Emerging LaborMarkets, and the Role of Education in Rural China. China Econom ic Zhang, J. S. ; Zhao, Y. ; Park, A. and Song, X. Econom ic Returns to Schooling in U rban China, Journal of Com parative E2 conom ics, 2005, 33 (4), pp ( : : )

- :,, ;,,,,,Chapman ( 1996) Goergen Renneboog(1) Shin Park (1999),,,, Fazzari,, Chow Fung(1998)Fazzari,,,,,, Fazzari,(7) Q,, Fazzari (7),, -,-,,-,,,,

- : 3,, - GMM,,,Q, Q ;,Q Q,,,,, Q,,,,,,,,, Fazzari (1988),,,, Hoshi (1991) 3 : 433 : keikou@ shufe. edu. cn () ; yinjie@ shufe. edu. cn () 211 9 - :,, ;,,,,,Chapman ( 1996) Goergen Renneboog(1) Shin Park