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1 12-Feb-1 12-Mar-1 12-Apr-1 12-May-1 12-Jun-1 12-Jul-1 12-Aug-1 12-Sep-1 12-Oct-1 12-Nov-1 12-Dec-1 12-Jan-16 股票研究信息技术 216 年 2 月 1 日中软国际 ( HK) 买入 ( 维持评级 ) 目标价格 :.89 港元安全边际高, 基本面牢固 ; 重申买入评级最新动态 : 我们最近与中软国际管理层进行了会议交流, 主要观点如下长期受益于华为的战略持股作为中软国际的最大客户 ( 收入贡献约 %), 华为目前已正式成为中软国际的战略股东, 持有.97% 的股份受益于与华为更紧密的联系, 中软国际未来将得到更多的华为外包业务份额, 该份额已从 21 年的 %, 提升至 21 年的 %, 未来 1-2 年预计会进一步增加到 6% 同时, 公司将有机会借助华为的全球企业客户资源, 拓展到更多的垂直行业领域 ( 如云服务 ) 和更多的海外市场 ( 如印度 ) 朱然, CPA 证监会中央编号 BDK82 zhuran@gfgroup.com.hk 何伟基, CFA 证监会中央编号 AFP8 josephho@gfgroup.com.hk 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦 29- 楼竞争力增强, 促进经营利润率和运营现金流不断改善受益于强大而稳定的大客户资源和优秀的技术能力, 中软国际在国内 IT 服务领域的竞争力不断增强, 有望取得更强的议价能力, 从而带来经营利润率和运营现金流的改善 21 年, 华为对中软国际的外包人员平均报酬提升了 1%, 同时加快了对中软国际的应付账款偿还因此, 我们预期中软国际的经营利润率和现金流在未来两年将持续改善大客户战略提供持续增长动力公司的前五大客户包括华为微软腾讯汇丰银行和交通银行, 合共占公司总收入约 % 这些大客户目前都维持着良好的业务扩张势头, 预计将能推动公司收入未来几年每年增长 1-2% 21 年, 我们预计公司的收入和净利润分别增长 18% 和 %, 主要归因于华为业务的强劲势头以及收购与华为合资公司的剩余权益解放平台总流水去年超过 1 亿元人民币公司对解放平台 ( 定位类似于 IT 服务行业的淘宝 ) 的推广取得了相当不错的进展截止 216 年 1 月底, 平台已经拥有 8 万名注册工程师, 几乎相当于公司整体员工人数的倍来自平台的流水总额在 21 年估计已经突破 1 亿元人民币随着平台功能的逐步完善和高效的推广, 我们预期未来几年解放平台的收入贡献将不断提升股价表现 1% 1% % % -% 安全边际高, 基本面牢固 ; 重申买入评级我们继续看好公司, 主要基于 :1) 公司与华为腾讯等大客户的稳定合作 ;2) 公司在国内 IT 服务领域的竞争力不断提升 ;) 解放平台估值提升为公司带来价值重估的可能公司目前股价对应 12.8 倍 216 年市盈率, 几乎处于近五年低点我们认为最近的深度调整 ( 过去三个月下跌 %) 提供了买入良机我们的盈利预测基本不变, 维持买入评级, 但将目标价下调 8% 至.89 港元 ( 基于一年预期市盈率的历史平均值为 2 倍 ), 主要是反映股份稀释和人民币贬值的影响风险因素 : 主要下行风险包括人力成本上升现金流压力以及解放平台的表现低于预期中软国际恒生指数资料来源 : 彭博主要数据 2 月 12 日收市价 ( 港元 ) 2.9 已发行股份 ( 百万股 ) 2,12 主要股东陈宇红 11.87% 市值 ( 十亿港元 ).6 个月平均交易量 ( 百万股 ) 周最高 / 最低价 ( 港元 ).6/2. 资料来源 : 彭博公司估值收入同比净利润同比稀释每股收益同比市盈率市净率 ROE ROA 净负债率 ( 人民币百万 ) ( 人民币百万 ) ( 人民币分 ) ( 倍 ) ( 倍 ) 21, , E, E 6, E 7, 资料来源 : 公司资料, 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 本页为英文报告原文之概要中英文版本如有不符, 概以英文版本为准

2 12-Feb-1 12-Mar-1 12-Apr-1 12-May-1 12-Jun-1 12-Jul-1 12-Aug-1 12-Sep-1 12-Oct-1 12-Nov-1 12-Dec-1 12-Jan-16 Equity Research Information Technology Feb 1, 216 ChinaSoft Intl ( HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$.89 High safety margin and strong fundamentals; reiterate Buy Ryan Zhu, CPA SFC CE No. BDK82 zhuran@gfgroup.com.hk Joseph Ho, CFA SFC CE No. AFP8 josephho@gfgroup.com.hk GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited 29-/F, Li Po Chun Chambers 189 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Stock performance 16% 1% 12% 1% 8% 6% % 2% % -2% -% What s new? We had a teleconference with ChinaSoft s management recently. Key takeaways below. Long-term beneficiary of Huawei s strategic stake Huawei, the company s largest customer (contributes around % of total revenue), previously became a strategic shareholder in ChinaSoft with a stake of.97%. Benefitting from this strengthened connection with Huawei, the company is expected to see a greater share of Huawei s outsourcing demand, which has risen from % in 21 to around % in 21, and is expected to rise further to 6% in the next 1-2 years. Meanwhile, Huawei s global enterprise client resources will help the company to expand its business in more vertical industries including cloud services, as well as overseas markets such as India. OPM and OCF improvement on enhanced competitiveness Based on its strengthened competitiveness amid strong key account resources and technical capabilities, the company is likely to gain more bargaining power and see a gradual improvement in operating profit margin and cash flow. In 21, Huawei increased its payment per outsourcing staff from ChinaSoft by 1% and decreased its payable account period. We therefore expect ChinaSoft to see a gradual improvement in operating margin and operating cash flow over the next two years. Sustainable growth momentum from key account strategy The company s top five accounts, Huawei, Microsoft, Tencent, HSBC, and BoCom, account for around % of total revenue. Given the business expansion momentum of these key accounts, the company should see continued revenue growth of 1-2% over the next few years. For 21, we estimate 18% and % growth in revenue and net profit respectively, mainly attributable to the strong momentum in its Huawei-related business and the acquisition of the remaining interest in their joint venture. Gross billing from JointForce platform exceeded Rmb1m last year The company has made considerable progress in the promotion of its JointForce platform, which is expected to act as a Taobao-like platform in the IT services industry. The platform had around 8, registered engineers as of end-jan 216, around three times the number of ChinaSoft s total staff. Gross billing from the JointForce platform is estimated to have exceeded Rmb1m in 21. We expect a larger revenue contribution from this platform in the next few years amid functional improvements and effective promotions. High safety margin and strong fundamentals; reiterate Buy We favor ChinaSoft given its strong cooperation with key accounts including Huawei and Tencent, improved competitiveness in the domestic IT services sector and re-rating potential amid the rising valuation of JointForce. The stock is currently trading at 12.8x 216E P/E, almost a five-year low. We believe the recent correction (~% down in last three months) provides a good buying opportunity. We leave our earnings forecasts largely unchanged, maintain our Buy rating, but revise down target price by 8% to HK$.89 (based on a historical average 1-year forward P/E of 2x), mainly to account for share dilution and Rmb depreciation. Source: Bloomberg Chinasoft Intl HIS.HI HSI Risks Key risks include rising labor costs, pressure on operating cash and lower-than-expected performance for the JointForce platform. Key data Feb 12 price (HK$) 2.9 Shares in issue (m) 2,12 Major shareholder Chen Yuhong 11.87% Market cap (HK$ bn).6 M avg. vol. (m) W high/low (HK$).6/2. Source: Bloomberg Stock valuation Turnover Net profit Diluted EPS (Rmb cents) P/E P/B ROE ROA Net gearing 21, , E, E 6, E 7, Page 2

3 11/1 11/ 11/7 11/1 12/1 12/ 12/7 12/1 1/1 1/ 1/7 1/1 1/1 1/ 1/7 1/1 1/1 1/ 1/7 1/1 16/1 Company report Feb 1, 216 Figure 1: Forecast adjustments New Previous Chg FY1E FY16E FY17E FY1E FY16E FY17E FY1E FY16E FY17E Revenue,29 6,197 7,6,29 6,197 7, % % -1% Net profit % % -1% EPS (Rmb cents) % -% -% Gross margin Net margin (.) Figure 2: Revenue and growth forecast Figure : Net profit and growth forecasts 8, 7, 6,,,, 2, 1, 2 2,768, ,29, ,6 6, FY12 FY1 FY1 FY1E FY16E FY17E FY12 FY1 FY1 FY1E FY16E FY17E Revenue growth Net profit growth Figure : Historical P/E band Share price (LHS, HK$) 12x 1x 2x 2x x Figure : Historical P/B band /1 12/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 16/1 Share price (LHS, HK$).8x 1.2x 1.6x 2.x.x Sources: Wind, GF Securities (HK) Sources: Wind, GF Securities (HK)

4 Company report Feb 1, 216 Figure 6: Financial statements Income Statement Balance Sheet Year-end Dec E 216E 217E Year-end Dec E 216E 217E Professional services business 1,69 1,986 2,19 2,9 2,677 Cash/ST Investments Outsourcing services business 1,88 2,26 2,9,91,79 Account receivables 1,17 1,16 1,8 1,86 2,229 Emerging Services Business Inventory Training business Amounts due from customers 1,61 1,1 1,71 2, 2,1 Turnover,26,29,29 6,197 7,6 Other Current Assets Total current assets,17,9,2,78,66 Property, plant & equipment Cost of sales (2,21) (,8) (,61) (,289) (,82) Intangible assets Gross profit 1, 1,9 1,9 1,99 2,28 Goodwill Other gains Other LT Assets Selling & marketing exp. (17) (22) (2) (297) () Total non-current assents 1,98 1,71 1,89 1,89 1,911 Admin exp. (12) (66) (771) (917) (1,8) Total Assets,67, 6,92 6,6 7,67 R&D costs (2) (6) (7) (87) (1) other expense (7) (18) (12) (1) (17) Amounts due to customers Operating profit ST Debt 71 1,2 1, 1, 1, Finance costs (7) (8) (89) (99) (11) Trade payables ,8 1,11 1,7 Share in associates (1) Other Current Liabilities Others () Total current liabilities 1,71 2,29 2,7 2,821,21 Pre-tax income Other LT Liab Taxation () (2) () (69) (87) Total non-current liabilities MI Net profit Minority Interests Shareholders' Equity 2,268 2,97 2,777,1,7 Adjusted net profit Total Equity & liabilities,67, 6,92 6,6 7,67 (8) BPS (Rmb) Diluted EPS (Rmb cents) Diluted EPS (Rmb cents) (12) Cash Flow Statement Financial Ratios Year-end Dec E 216E 217E Year-end Dec E 216E 217E Margins Pretax profit Gross margin Tax Paid (2) (2) () (69) (87) EBITDA margin Depr/Amort Operating margin Change in working capital (26) (6) (2) (7) (81) Net margin Others Operational cash flow (61) Returns and profitability ROE Capex (98) (6) (27) (27) (27) ROA Assoc, MI, Invsmt (6) (6) Sales/assets (x) Investment cash flow (6) (9) (27) (27) (27) Working capital Net Change in Debt Receivables (days) New Capital Inventory (days) Dividend Payable (days) Others Financing cash flow (69) (6) Financial health Current ratio (x) FX and others (8) Net gearing Chg in Cash 17 (1) 9 (1) 1 Beginning cash Others Ending cash Effective tax ratio

5 公司报告 216 年 2 月 1 日评级定义基准指数 : 香港恒生指数时间范围 : 12 个月公司评级买入预期公司股价表现强于基准指数 1% 以上增持预期公司股价表现强于基准指数 -1% 持有减持行业评级推荐中性谨慎分析师承诺预期公司股价表现相对基准指数的变动幅度介于 -% 和 +% 之间预期公司股价表现弱于基准指数 % 以上预期行业将跑赢基准指数 1% 以上预期行业相对基准指数的变动幅度介于 -1% 和 +1% 之间预期行业将跑输基准指数 1% 或以上主要负责编写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此申明, 本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的个人看法此外, 本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与, 现在不与, 未来也将不与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关权益披露 (1) 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 自营交易部及 / 或其关联公司并未持有本研究报告所述公司之股份 (2) 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 及 / 或其关联公司跟本研究报告所述公司在过去 12 个月内并没有任何投资银行业务的关系 () 分析师及其联系人士并无担任本研究报告所述公司之高级职员, 亦无拥有任何所述公司财务权益或持有股份免责条款本研究报告由广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司 ( 广发证券 ( 香港 ) ) 分发本研究报告仅供参考之用, 并不构成证券出售要约或证券买卖的邀请本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用本研究报告所评论的证券可能在某些地方不能出售本研究报告绝无意图让居住在法律或政策不允许本研究报告流通或者分发的司法权区的人士阅读本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息, 但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性广发证券 ( 香港 ) 不对因使用本研究报告的内容而导致的损失承担任何责任, 除非法律法规有明确规定投资涉及风险, 证券的价值及收益可能会波动, 过去的表现不能代表未来的业绩本研究报告所评论的证券或表达的意见未必适合个别人士之投资目标财政状况或个人需要, 客户不应以本研究报告取代其独立判断或仅根据本研究报告做出决策如有需要, 应先咨询专业意见广发证券 ( 香港 ) 可发出其他与本研究报告所载信息不一致及有不同结论的报告本研究报告反映研究人员的不同观点见解及分析方法, 并不代表广发证券 ( 香港 ) 或者其关联公司的本研究报告所载资料意见及推测仅反映研究人员于发出本研究报告当日的判断, 可随时更改且不予通告我们的销售人员交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略我们的自营交易部可能会做出与本研究报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策广发证券 ( 香港 ) 或其关联方或其各自的董事高级人员分析员及雇员可能持有本研究报告所评论之任何证券的权益读者在阅读本研究报告时应留意有关权益披露 ( 如有披露 ) 版权所有 : 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司未经广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司事先书面同意, 本材料的任何部分均不得 (i) 以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝复印件或复制品, 或 (ii) 再次分发香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦 29- 楼电话 : Fax: 网站 :

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914-151014c 21 年 1 月 14 日現價 :HK$2.1 潜在上升空间 :+19% 目标价 :HK$29.8 水泥行業安徽海螺水泥 (914.HK) 華東的一流水泥生產商落后同步领先首次覆蓋財務資料一覽年結 12 月 31 日 213 214 21E 216E 217E 收入 ( 人民幣百萬元 ),262 6,79