: 3 :,, 2007,,,,,, ( ),, :,,,, ( ),,, 2007,,,,,,,,,2006 253, 78 ; 293, 107 ; 1Π3 1,20 80 40 % 60 %,,, (,2003 ;,2008 ;,2004 ;, 2004) 20 70 80, 1977 1985,,,, 20 3,, :200433 ;,,Princeton University, : shuaizha @Princeton. EDU ;,, :100826 100
2008 12 70,, 1985,, 170, 7818 20 80, 90,, (,2004) 1999,,,,,,,, 0117 20 90, 0122, 0109,,,,, (NBS) ( CHIP), 1 ( 1980 2002 ) : (1996,P149 P150) (2007),, (Li et al.,2007), Fleisher et al. (2004) (2004) CHIP 1988 1995 2000 Li Luo (2004) 1995, 715 %, 15 % Fleisher et al. (2004) OLS 2000 711 %, 1988 2000, 1995 Yang (2005) 1988 1995 CHIP (2003) (2007) (2007),, (2004) 1992 2003 (LIV),, 2000 43 %, 11 % (2004) 2000,, 6124 % 8184 % Zhang et al. (2005) 11 % (CHNS) (2006) CHNS 2000 101
: 2001 1012 %,,,, Behrman et al. (1996) Zhang (2005) Brewer Ehrenberg (1996) Brewer et al. (1999), OLS,, 1. 1 2007 y ( ), ln y edu1 = 1, ; = 0,, 21 edu2 = 1, ; = 0, ( ) 5090 edu3 = 1, ; = 0, ad = 1,; = 0, female = 1, ; = 0,, exp ( ) exp - 2 100 fedu ( ) medu ( ), rank = 1, ; = 0, sch - good = 1, ; = 0,, 2809 rank - sch rank sch - good, = 1,; = 0, 632 train = 1, ; = 0,, 797 ind1 = 1,,, ; = 0,, 1380 ind2 = 1,, ; = 0, ind3 = 1,, ; = 0, ind4 = 1,, ; = 0, 117, ind5 = 1, ; = 0, ind6 = 1, ; = 0, 206 1 east = 1, ; = 0, west = 1, ; = 0, 2. middle = 1, ; = 0, Mincer, (1) : ln y i = + 1 edu3 i + 2 edu2 i + X i + i (1), i ;ln y ; edu3 edu2 ; X,, 102
2008 12, (1), 1 2,,, : ln y i = + 1 edu3 i + 2 edu2 i + 3 ( edu3 ad) i + 4 ( edu2 ad) i + X i + i (2) (2), edu3 ad, edu2 ad, 1, 1 + 3, 3, 2, 2 + 4, 4 3 4 (1) (2) OLS, OLS,,,, OLS,,,, (quantile regression), OLS,,,,,, treatment effect, (2004),,, Card (1995) Ashenfelter Zimmerman (1997) 1. 2 2 ( y) 1015, 106, 1 ( exp) 2016, 46,,,,, 2716 %,,28 %, 22 % ;1115 %( ) 3 5 ( ), 012 ; 0117, 0102,, 014 3,, fedu medu rank sch - good train,,,,, OLS OLS, Card(2001) 103
: 2 44 %, 24 % y 2793 10. 52 9. 30 1 105. 6 ln y 2793 2. 09 0. 72 0 4. 66, edu1 2809 0. 49 0. 50 0 1 ( ind2) edu2 2809 0. 28 0. 45 0 1 ( 13 %), edu3 2809 0. 23 0. 42 0 1 ( ind6) ad 2809 0. 12 0. 32 0 1, female 2809 0. 28 0. 45 0 1 exp 2802 20. 69 6. 29 0 45. 5 fedu 2791 9. 12 4. 32 0 18, medu 2793 6. 95 4. 69 0 16 rank 2807 0. 51 0. 50 0 1 2. sch - good 2807 0. 28 0. 45 0 1 train 2809 0. 31 0. 46 0 1, (1) ind1 2807 0. 07 0. 26 0 1 4 ind2 2807 0. 34 0. 48 0 1, 4 ind3 2807 0. 23 0. 42 0 1 ind4 2807 0. 10 0. 29 0 1 4 (1) ind5 2807 0. 15 0. 36 0 1 Mincer, ind6 2807 0. 11 0. 31 0 1 ( west 2809 0. 27 0. 44 0 1 ) middle 2809 0. 33 0. 47 0 1 (2), east, 2809 0. 40 0. 49 0 1 ( fedu) ( medu) ( sch - ( rank) ( rank - good) sch) ( train) (3),, ( ind1), ( ind2), ( ind3),, ( ind4),, ( ind5), ( ind6) 4,, ( ) (1) 0174, 0163, (3) 0153, 13 % 0142 0135 0131, (3) 10 % 4,( ) ; ; 104
2008 12 3 ln y 2. 57 (0. 62) 2. 37 (0. 56) 2. 21 (0. 70) 2. 22 (0. 68) 1. 81 (0. 67) female 0. 24 (0. 43) 0. 44 (0. 50) 0. 30 (0. 46) 0. 32 (0. 47) 0. 26 (0. 44) exp 18. 50 (5. 88) 18. 96 (5. 08) 18. 95(6. 24) 21. 66 (5. 86) 22. 25 (6. 15) fedu 10. 47 (4. 57) 9. 97 (4. 51) 9. 70 (4. 25) 9. 41 (4. 55) 8. 26 (4. 01) medu 8. 05 (4. 99) 7. 98 (5. 12) 7. 63 (4. 67) 7. 14 (4. 66) 6. 14 (4. 40) rank 0. 80 (0. 40) 0. 74 (0. 44) 0. 62 (0. 49) 0. 60 (0. 49) 0. 33 (0. 47) sch - good 0. 49 (0. 50) 0. 37 (0. 48) 0. 35 (0. 48) 0. 22 (0. 42) 0. 17 (0. 37) train 0. 41 (0. 49) 0. 50 (0. 50) 0. 37 (0. 48) 0. 44 (0. 50) 0. 22 (0. 41) ind1 0. 05 (0. 21) 0. 06 (0. 24) 0. 09 (0. 29) 0. 05 (0. 22) 0. 07 (0. 26) ind2 0. 21 (0. 41) 0. 13 (0. 34) 0. 31 (0. 46) 0. 31 (0. 46) 0. 44 (0. 50) ind3 0. 10 (0. 30) 0. 08 (0. 27) 0. 17 (0. 38) 0. 19 (0. 39) 0. 32 (0. 47) ind4 0. 15 (0. 35) 0. 13 (0. 34) 0. 11 (0. 31) 0. 08 (0. 28) 0. 07 (0. 26) ind5 0. 32 (0. 47) 0. 31 (0. 46) 0. 16 (0. 37) 0. 21 (0. 41) 0. 06 (0. 24) ind6 0. 18 (0. 38) 0. 30 (0. 46) 0. 16 (0. 37) 0. 17 (0. 37) 0. 04 (0. 19) west 0. 26 (0. 44) 0. 39 (0. 49) 0. 28 (0. 45) 0. 37 (0. 48) 0. 24 (0. 43) middle 0. 36 (0. 48) 0. 32 (0. 47) 0. 33 (0. 47) 0. 30 (0. 46) 0. 33 (0. 47) east 0. 38 (0. 49) 0. 30 (0. 46) 0. 39 (0. 49) 0. 33 (0. 47) 0. 43 (0. 50) 515 117 591 206 1380 :, 4 (1) OLS (1) (2) (3) edu3 0. 739 333 0. 033 0. 632 333 0. 036 0. 532 333 0. 036 edu2 0. 419 333 0. 030 0. 353 333 0. 031 0. 306 333 0. 030 female - 0. 140 333 0. 028-0. 160 333 0. 028-0. 144 333 0. 026 exp 0. 024 33 0. 010 0. 022 33 0. 010 0. 026 333 0. 009 exp - 2-0. 044 3 0. 024-0. 042 3 0. 024-0. 058 33 0. 023 fedu - 0. 001 0. 004 0. 001 0. 003 medu 0. 009 333 0. 003 0. 005 0. 003 rank 0. 030 0. 031 0. 016 0. 029 sch - good - 0. 003 0. 048-0. 015 0. 045 rank - sch 0. 093 0. 059 0. 104 3 0. 055 train 0. 169 333 0. 027 0. 137 333 0. 026 ind1-0. 091 0. 057 ind2-0. 102 33 0. 042 ind3-0. 295 333 0. 045 ind4 0. 037 0. 052 ind5 0. 129 333 0. 046 east 0. 366 333 0. 030 middle - 0. 083 333 0. 030 Adjusted R 2 0. 17 0. 19 0. 29 2786 2756 2756 : 333 33 3 1 % 5 % 10 % 105
: 4 15 %, ( Zhang, 2008) ( exp) ( train), (3) 0114,,,, 0113,,, 0137,, 9 % 4,, 5 (2) 4, ( edu3 ad) ( edu2 ad) 5 (3),,0156, 013, 0117 1 %,, 0101, 5 (2) OLS (1) (2) (3) edu3 0. 772 333 0. 035 0. 669 333 0. 038 0. 564 333 0. 038 edu2 0. 419 333 0. 033 0. 356 333 0. 034 0. 302 333 0. 033 edu3 - ad - 0. 177 333 0. 068-0. 189 333 0. 067-0. 173 333 0. 063 edu2 - ad - 0. 002 0. 054-0. 009 0. 053 0. 012 0. 050 female - 0. 134 333 0. 028-0. 154 333 0. 028-0. 139 333 0. 027 exp 0. 025 33 0. 010 0. 024 33 0. 010 0. 027 333 0. 009 exp - 2-0. 047 3 0. 024-0. 045 3 0. 024-0. 060 333 0. 023 fedu - 0. 001 0. 004 0. 000 0. 003 medu 0. 009 333 0. 003 0. 005 0. 003 rank 0. 030 0. 031 0. 016 0. 029 sch - good - 0. 004 0. 048-0. 015 0. 045 rank - sch 0. 087 0. 059 0. 098 3 0. 055 train 0. 171 333 0. 027 0. 139 333 0. 026 ind1-0. 096 3 0. 057 ind2-0. 110 333 0. 042 ind3-0. 303 333 0. 045 ind4 0. 029 333 0. 052 ind5 0. 120 333 0. 046 east 0. 363 333 0. 030 middle - 0. 086 333 0. 030 Adjusted R 2 0. 17 0. 19 0. 29 2786 2756 2756 106
2008 12, 5, edu3 edu2 4, edu3 ad edu2 ad ( ) ( ),, (Altonji,2005), 5, edu3 ad edu2 ad,,,?,,, ( ),,,,,,, 6 OLS (1) (2) (3) 20 edu3 0. 738 333 0. 052 0. 669 333 0. 056 0. 533 333 0. 055 edu2 0. 409 333 0. 048 0. 368 333 0. 049 0. 286 333 0. 047 edu3 - ad - 0. 029 0. 111-0. 057 0. 111-0. 088 0. 105 edu2 - ad 0. 009 0. 073-0. 006 0. 072 0. 020 0. 068 female - 0. 114 333 0. 040-0. 137 333 0. 039-0. 127 333 0. 037 exp 0. 178 333 0. 044 0. 162 333 0. 043 0. 132 333 0. 041 exp - 2-0. 324 333 0. 080-0. 296 333 0. 079-0. 251 333 0. 074, Adjusted R 2 0. 16 0. 17 0. 28 1464 1447 1447 20 edu3 0. 816 333 0. 048 0. 673 333 0. 054 0. 614 333 0. 054 edu2 0. 432 333 0. 046 0. 345 333 0. 049 0. 324 333 0. 047 edu3 - ad - 0. 271 333 0. 085-0. 263 333 0. 085-0. 222 333 0. 079 edu2 - ad - 0. 006 0. 081-0. 003 0. 081 0. 009 0. 076 female - 0. 144 333 0. 040-0. 158 333 0. 040-0. 147 333 0. 038 exp - 0. 055 3 0. 031-0. 057 3 0. 031-0. 051 3 0. 029 exp - 2 0. 236 33 0. 110 0. 238 33 0. 109 0. 217 33 0. 102, Adjusted R 2 0. 19 0. 21 0. 31 1322 1309 1309 107
:,,, 20 80,,, 20 90,, 6, ( 20 ) ( 20 ), 5 20 80,90, edu3 ad, 6 (3), 0109, 0,, 6 (3), 0122, 1 % 6 7, (Fleisher et al.,2004 Zhang et al.,2005),, edu2 ad, 0, 20 40 60 80 edu3 0. 565 333 0. 587 333 0. 580 333 0. 540 333 (0. 043) (0. 051) (0. 054) (0. 049) edu2 0. 293 333 0. 341 333 0. 361 333 0. 344 333 (0. 055) (0. 052) (0. 052) (0. 043) edu3 - ad - 0. 176 3-0. 176 33-0. 183 333-0. 109 (0. 092) (0. 080) (0. 056) (0. 069) edu2 - ad 0. 045 0. 012-0. 011-0. 023 (0. 075) (0. 058) (0. 052) (0. 050) female - 0. 118 333-0. 118 333-0. 119 333-0. 178 333 (0. 037) (0. 038) (0. 035) (0. 043) exp 0. 031 33 0. 033 333 0. 028 33 0. 024 (0. 012) (0. 009) (0. 012) (0. 015) exp - 2-0. 067 333-0. 068 333-0. 060 33-0. 049 (0. 025) (0. 024) (0. 029) (0. 034) Pseudo R 2 0. 19 0. 20 0. 18 0. 17, 7 20 40 60 80, 5 (3) 7,, edu3 ad 80, OLS, edu2 ad 0,,, (2004) treatment effect, (natural experiment) 108
2008 12, 2007,,,0117 20 90, 0122, 0109,,, 20 70 80,90,,,,,,,,,,,,, ; ;,,,,,2007 :, 2, 2004 :,,2006 :, 4,2004 :,1, 2003 :,6,2004 : :, 4,2008 :,6,2007 :, 6,2007 :, 8,2004 :,3,2004 :, ( ) ( ) 3,2003 : :, 2 2 Altonji, Joseph G. ; Elder, Todd E. ; Taber, Christopher R., 2005, Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables : Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools, Journal of Political Economy 113 (1), 151 184. Ashenfelter, O. and D. Zimmerman, 1997, Estimation of Return to Schooling from Sibling Data : Fathers, Sons and Brothers, Review of Economics and Statistics 79, 1 9. Behrman, Jere R. ; Mark R. Rosenzweig ; and Paul Taubman, 1996, College Choice and Wages : Estimates Using Data on Female Twins, Review of Economics and Statistics, 78 (4), 672 685. 109
: Brewer, Dominic and Ronald G. Ehrenberg, 1996, Research in Labor Economics 15, 239 272. Brewer, Dominic J. ; Eric R. Eide ; and Ronald G. Evidence on the Effects of College Type on Earnings, Journal of Human Resource 34 (1), 104 123. Does It Pay to Attend an Elite Private College? Evidence from the Senior Class of 1980, Ehrenberg, 1999, Does It Pay to Attend an Elite Private College? Cross Cohort Card, David, 1995, Using Geographic Variation in College Proximity to Estimate the Return to Schooling, L. N. Christofides, E. K. Grant and R. Swidinsky (eds. ), Aspects of Labour Market Behavior : Essays in Honor of John Vanderkamp. Toronto : University of Toronto Press, pp. 201 222. 1160. Card, David, 2001, Estimating the Return to Schooling : Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems, Econometrica 69 (5),1127 Fleisher, Belton M. ; Haizheng Li ; Shi Li ; and Xiaojun Wang, 2004, Sorting, Selection, and Transformation of the Return to College Education in China, IZA Discussion Paper No. 1446. Li, H., and Y. Luo,2004, Reporting Errors, Ability Heterogeneity and Returns to Schooling in China, Pacific Economic Review 9 (3), 191 207. Li, Hongbin ; Pak Wai Liu ; Ning Ma ; and Junsen Zhang, 2007, Economic Returns to Communist Party Membership : Evidence from Chinese Twins, Economic Journal 117 (523), 1504 1520. Zhang, Junsen ; J. Han ; P. W. Liu ; and Y. Zhao, 2008, Trends in the Gender Earnings Differential in Urban China, 1988 2004, Industrial &Labor Relations Review 61, 224 242. Zhang, Junsen ; Yaohui Zhao ; Albert Park ; and Xiaoqing Song, 2005, Economic Returns to Schooling in urban China, Journal of Comparative Economics 33, 730 752. Zhang, Liang, 2005, Do Measures of College Quality Matter? The Effect of College Quality on Graduatesπ Earnings, Review of Higher Education 28 (4), 571 596. Effects of Adult Higher Education on Wages Xu Lingli a, Feng Shuaizhang a,b and Chen Xiaolong c (a : Shanghai University of Finance and Economics ; b : Princeton University ; c : National Bureau of Statistics) Abstract :Using a unique urban household survey data in 2007 that is nationally representative, we examine returns to a tertiary degree in China, paying special attention to the difference between regular higher education and adult higher education. We found that for people with a Bachelorπs degree, the return is 0. 17 lower for those who got the degree through adult education programs. Nevertheless, for those with an associateπs degree, the returns are similar. Our results suggest that adult higher education programs that offer Bachelorπs degrees need serious restructuring to position themselves in todayπs higher education system. Key Words :Return to Schooling ; Adult Higher Education ; Four2year College ; Junior College JEL Classification :C130, I230 ( : ) ( : ) 110