* ** 119 人口成長趨勢 國家考試 公務人員考試 專門職業及技術人員考試 * Director, Department of Statistics, Ministry of Examination ** Section Chief, Department of Statistics, Ministry of Examination
The Impact of the Trends of Population Growth on the Future National Exams Chu-ching Chu Li-Hua Yang Abstract The population projections estimated by the Council for Economic Planning and Development suggest that the changes in the population structure due to low birth rates and aging population will directly affect the domestic industrial structure and supply and demand in the labor market. To cope with the economic development and manpower supply and demand in the future, all government departments have developed specific policies and support measures to improve the issues of population, overall personnel training, employment promotion and labor laws. The national exams organized by the Ministry of Examination plays a leading role in recruiting talent for the nation in the process of personnel training. Among these exams, the civil service exams are the main methods for staff appointments in various government departments and agencies, while the professional and technical exams provide qualification screening for professional and technical personnel in all aspects of the society. The current study first gives a brief review on the current status of national exams, characteristic profiles of examinees, demographic changes and relevant government policies. Then it investigate the influence of low birth rates and aging trends on the deduction of supply in the number of examinees taking the national exams in the future, on the emerging demand of the long-term care professionals, and on the reduction in the demand of public servants after the implementation of organizational re-engineering and the reform on the retirement system. The authors proposed lowering the restrictions on the national exams to widen the range of qualifications, consolidating appropriate types and classes of exams, implementing function analysis, improving exam methods and techniques to enhance test reliability and validity. Keywords: population growth trends, national exams, civil service exams, professional and technical exams 120 國家 NATIONAL ELITE NO.27 第七卷 第三期
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99 749,054 536,803 71.66% 212,251 28.34% 533,647 71.24% 58,164 10.90% 1 1. 180 3 4 1 99 年各種國家考試報考 到考暨錄取或及格人數統計表 考試別報考人數到考人數錄取或及格人數到考率 % 錄取或及格率 % 749,054 533,646 58,164 71.24 10.90 536,803 369,582 12,809 68.85 3.47 66,596 42,869 2,145 64.37 5.00 70,014 48,548 1,291 69.34 2.66 89,149 68,443 580 76.77 0.85 301,975 202,157 7,101 66.94 3.51 9,069 7,565 1,692 83.42 22.37 212,251 164,064 45,355 77.30 27.64 98,070 75,397 18,469 76.88 24.49 109,927 85,019 25,936 77.34 30.51 4,254 3,648 950 85.75 26.04 99100 5 122 國家 NATIONAL ELITE NO.27 第七卷 第三期
85 23 9.01% 5.08% 87 18 2% 500 700 9 1% 2. 15 20 88 123
60 1. 90 99 15 22 17 34 2 75 18,46924.50% 99 9 4 25 1 2 32 25,93630.51% 2. 91 1 16 3 100 100 94 46 99 75 30 60% 94 29 13% 99 53 94 16 7 5% 99 21 124 國家 NATIONAL ELITE NO.27 第七卷 第三期
99 94 15.6 21 35 99 94 6 2 近年國家考試報考人數之教育程度及年齡結構 單位 : 人 ;% 項目別 公務人員專門職業及技術人員 94 年 99 年 94 年 99 年 291,408 536,803 167,268 212,251 (%) 42.33 45.03 31.54 36.69 57.67 54.97 68.46 63.31 (%) 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 0.10 0.14 0.20 0.27 7.45 12.58 5.05 7.79 52.64 63.13 38.51 44.49 25.45 13.60 36.29 29.29 14.36 10.56 19.95 18.16 (%) 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 18-20 0.80 0.69 9.92 8.56 21-25 27.70 25.22 38.62 35.06 26-30 33.29 36.41 21.76 21.67 31-35 18.21 19.54 11.30 12.65 36-40 10.58 9.74 7.72 7.73 41-45 5.81 5.08 5.13 6.05 46-50 2.71 2.31 3.08 4.14 51 0.91 1.01 2.47 4.14 99100 5 125
20 3 4 7 9 3 7 8 女 100 歲以上 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 男 0 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 萬人 1 94 年及 99 年人口金字塔圖 126 國家 NATIONAL ELITE NO.27 第七卷 第三期
1 65 0-14 15-64 99 2,316 2,123 65 248 7,893 10.74% (0-14 ) 362 4,311 15.65% 15-64 1,704 9,919 73.61% 99 1,113 58.13% 66.57% 49.96% 15 ~ 24 28% 25 ~ 44 80% 45 ~ 64 60% 65 8% 2010 2060 3 Cohort-Component Method 2022 23.45 6 12 18 10 19% 29% 23% 20 24% 36% 43% 0-5 6-21 2010 5.1% 20.3% 2060 3.7% 10.5% 106-11 12-17 18-21 29% 33% 15% 15-64 2010 73.6% 2015 74.4% 2060 48.9% 2010 25-34 23.0% 2060 55-64 28.2% 6 5 2010 10.7% 2060 41.6% 127
80 2010 60.6 2060 344.9 24.4%44.0% 65 1993 7% ageing 2017 14%aged 2025 20% super-aged 2 2010 36 2012 2015 34 2060 104 1990 50% 2027 95 6 95 9 97 3 推計 歲以上 齡人口 萬人 齡 齡 歲工作年齡人口 歲以 年人口 齡 年 圖 2 三階段人口年齡結構變動趨勢 - 中推計 2010206099 9 128 國家 NATIONAL ELITE NO.27 第七卷 第三期
99 1 99 8 99 102 3 人力培育方案 (99-102) 有關考選部具體行動措施 推動策略 考選部具體行動措施 1. 3 2. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 4. 129
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21-45 21-35 29.8 94 61% 99 76% 50% 69% 38% 66% 35 4 50 30 99 54 97 98 99 6-21 15-64 6-21 10 126 44.1 62.9 19 15-64 105 25-34 23% 19.4% 45-64 36.8% 41.7% 4 35 14.9% 25-34 16.4% 131
98 99 2,000 3,000 4 學齡人口及工作年齡人口人數 - 中推計 單位 : 千人 年別 年底學齡人口數 (6-21 歲 ) 大學 (18-21 歲 ) 年底工作年齡人口數 15-24 歲 25-34 歲 35-44 歲 45-64 歲 99 4,701 1,278 17,046 2,196 3,917 3,650 6,283 109 3,441 1,088 16,898 2,653 3,273 3,916 7,056 119 2,794 738 15,115 1,869 2,734 3,287 7,226 129 2,592 672 13,277 1,687 1,947 2,749 6,895 139 2,256 626 11,078 1,561 1,755 1,966 5,796 149 1,981 519 9,219 1,308 1,617 1,768 4,526 2010206099 9 132 國家 NATIONAL ELITE NO.27 第七卷 第三期
80 99 GDP 1.58% 31.34% 67.08% 5.24% 35.92% 58.84% 30.71% 29.64% 93 94 96 97 98 99 100 82 7% 149 99 65 249 10.7% 114 476 20.3% superaged society 40 20 96 10 817 109 65 38 5 100 7 15 2.98% 70 133
care manager 99 0.9 1 111 14-65 99 1,107 24-54 72% 86% 55-64 65 43% 8% 5 台灣地區未來 65 歲以上長期照顧需求人口數推估 單位 : 人 年別合計 65-74 歲 74-85 歲 85 歲以上 95 220,250 66,841 98,157 55,251 99 256,277 70,113 108,656 77,509 104 310,083 82,877 121,878 105,328 109 380,053 117,910 133,268 128,876 96 3 Activitiesofdailylife ADLs InstrumentalActivitiesofDailyLife IADLsADLs IADLs 134 國家 NATIONAL ELITE NO.27 第七卷 第三期
98 55 64 55.0% 45 54 32.9% 65 8.4% 55.3 97 4 65 99 8 11 60 25 30 55 85 76 99 1 12 2 3 37 29 22 3 17 3 5 16 101 135
2007 2010 99-102 20102010 2060 2011 175 10-20 2011 2010 172 18-25 2010 173 34-40 2008 44 No.161-26 136 國家 NATIONAL ELITE NO.27 第七卷 第三期