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1 Vol. 40 No. 3 May Population Research * % U A Study of the Influence of Population Ageing on Labor Force Participation Rate Zhou Zhuping Liu Haibin Abstract Labor force participation level is important for labor supply and economic growth.since changing age structure influences the overall labor force participation rate LFPR population ageing plays an important role in explaining differences in LFPR.By comparing age-standardized LFPRamong China Brazil France India Japan and The U.S. it is found that LFPRlevel of a young population is considerably higher than that of an older population under the same age-specific LFPR.Using the decomposition method of differences between rates it is found that in 2013 the LFPRdifference between China and Japan is at 12.1 percentage points of which 79.0% is contributed by their age structure difference.further empirical analysis through both national and international panel data models also indicate that LFPRis significantly negative related to population ageing. Keywords Population Ageing Standardization Labor Force Participation Rate Authors Zhou Zhuping is Associate Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China.Liu Haibin is Master Student School of Sociology and Population Studies Renmin University of China. zhouzhuping@ ruc.edu.cn * 14BRK032

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5 62 40 Fifure 1 1 Mechanism of the Influence of Population Ageing on LFPR Figure 2 2 Age-Specific LFPR from the Fifth and Sixth Censuses % 54. 2% % %

6 Table 1 Comparison of Age-specific LFPR among Six Countries is 2013 % 15 ~ ~ ~ ~ www. ilo. org LFPR LFPR = n R i = 1 i C i 3 R i C i LFPR' = n R i = 1 i C s i 4 LFPR I C s i Table 2 Comparison of LFPR after Age-standardization % Samuel H. Preston et A B

7 64 40 Δ = i [ ] C B i - C A i RB i + R A i 2 + R B i - R A i CB i + C A i [ ] 2 5 A B A B % 21. 0% Table 3 LFPR Comparison Between China and Japan in 2013 [ ] i C B i C A i R B i R A i C B i - C A i RB i + R A i 2 5 R B i - R A i CB i + C A i [ 2 ] 15 ~ ~ ~ ~ % ~ GDP

8 Table 4 Description of Variables 1 LFPR 15 2 AGEING 65 3 PGDP 4 SEC 5 TER 6 UR 7 LF 8 EDU GDP GDP 15 ~ 64 9 TFR 10 GDP FINANCE 11 DENSITY / 12 DIVORCE INCR PGDP GDP 1990 LFPR = β 0 + β 1 AGEING + β 2 PGDP 2 + β 3 PGDP + β 4 SEC + β 5 TER + β 6 UR + β 7 ln LF + β 8 EDU 2 + β 9 EDU + β 10 DENSITY + β 11 DIVORCE + β 12 TFR + β 13 INCR + β 14 FINANCE + μ Table 5 5 Results of Inter-Provincial Panel Data Model AGEING *** *** PGDP *** *** PGDP *** *** SEC

9 TER UR *** *** ln LF EDU ** ** EDU ** ** TFR *** *** FINANCE DENSITY *** *** INCR ** ** DIVORCE ** ** _cons *** ** N r2 r2_a Rmse * p < 0. 1 ** p < *** p < ~ ~ 6 U U

10 LFPR = β 0 + β 1 AGEING + β 2 PGDP 2 + β 3 PGDP + β 4 TER + β 5 UR + β 6 ln LF + β 7 EDU 2 + β 8 EDU + β 9 TFR + β 10 FINANCE + μ Hausman 6 Table 6 6 Results of International Panel Data Model AGEING ** ** *** PGDP *** *** *** PGDP e - 09 *** *** e - 09 *** TER *** *** *** UR

11 ln LF *** *** ** EDU *** *** * EDU *** *** TFR ** ** *** FINANCE ** ** ** _cons * *** *** N r r2_a Rmse * p < 0. 1 ** p < *** p < U U GDP U %

12 % U U /References 1 David E. Bloom and Jeffrey G. Williamson Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review David E. Bloom and David Canning and Günther Fink Population Aging and Economic Growth. The World Bank Working Paper Landis Mac Kellar Tatiana Ermolieva David Horlacher and Leslie Mayhew The Economic Empacts of Population Ageing in Japan. Edward Elgar 3. 4 Hirotsugu Sakai and HitoshiAsaoka Factors Affecting Labor Force Participation in Japan Empirical Study of Labor Supply of the Elderly and Females. Aging and the Labor Market in Japan. Edited by Koichi Hamada Hiromi Kato. Edward Elgar Samuel H. Preston PatrickHeuveline and Michel Guillot Demograpy Measuring and Modeling Population Process. Oxford Blackwell World Bank World Development Indicators WangDewen Cai Fang and Zhang Xuehui Saving Effects and Growth Effects of Demographic Transition. Population Research Li Jianmin Has China Really Finished Population Ageing without Being Wealthy Population Research Guo Lin and Che Shiyi The Effect of China 's Labor Participation Rate and Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth. Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

13 Zhang Juwei and Wu Yaowu Urban Employment Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Situations Problems and Policies. Chinese Journal of Population Science Zhang Juwei and Cai Yifei General Trends of Labor Supply and Demand in China Problems and Policy Options. Polulation and Economics Zhang Juwei and Cai Yifei Forcasting China s Labor Supply and Demand and the Unemployment Structure in the 13 th Five-Year-Plan Period. Population Research Li Lilin The Measure Change and Implications of China s Labor Force Participation Rate during the Transition Period. Human Resources Development of China Wang Jinying and Lin Lili Labor Force Participation Rate of China and Future Labor Supply Analysis. Population Journal ~ Ma Zhongdong Lv Zhihao and Ye Kongjia Labor Force Participation Rates and Labor Force Growth Chinese Journal of Population Science Jiang Cheng Gu Danan Liu Yuzhi and Zeng Yi Long Term Care Cost of Chinese Elderly A Multi-state Life Table Approach. Population Research Shi Wei and Li Weixu Empirical Study on Care Resources Distribution and Care Satisfaction of Urban Disabled Elderly The Case of Xicheng District. Beijing Social Science Wang Yinyin and Tong Yufen Impact of Population Aging on the Labor Force Participation Rate in China. Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

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