Abstract % 4.3% OECD GDP GDP 5 4.7% 4.3% 3.0% 4.4% ADB % FDI 2004 FDI The UN publishe

ISSN 1019-2441 1555 http://www.cepd.gov.tw 93 09 30 ( )

2 1555 Abstract 9 16 2004 3.8% 4.3% OECD 9 21 2004 GDP GDP 5 4.7% 4.3% 3.0% 4.4% ADB 2004 1997 1998 7.0% 2005 2004 2003 3 FDI 2004 FDI The UN published its Trade Development Report on 16 September. According to the Report, the world GDP growth rate will reach 3.8% for 2004. The recovery has been driven largely by the US economy and continued fast expansion in the South East Asian countries; plus Japan s growth rate will reach 4.3% as well. However, such optimism is dampened by the surge oil prices and uncertainties of US dollar depreciation. On 21 September, the OECD presented its interim assessment for its member countries, summarizing that global recovery continue expanding which contributes to the GDP growth rate of the major countries in 2004. Except the US, the projected GDP growth rates for the major countries have been revised upward. Compared to the forecast in May, only America s growth rate revised down from 4.7% to 4.3%, while prediction for Japan has been upward revised from 3.0% to 4.4%, which became the highest growth rate among major countries. The ADB released its latest Asian Development Forecast stating that affected by booming foreign trade, growing regional consumption, and increasing investments, the yearly GDP growth rate in 2004 for Asian developing countries and regions will reach 7.0%, a pick since the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998. However, surge oil prices, soften China s economic growth rate and other factors will drag GDP growth slightly for 2005. The UNCTAD in its World Investment Report 2004 stated that after the three consecutive years declined in 2001-03, the world foreign direct investments (FDI) flows have shown a sign of optimism in 2004, with significant flows shifted to service industry. Besides traditional trade and financial services which still hold important shares, attracting investments in such sectors as electricity, telecommunication, waster services, and other business services have grown substantially in recent years.

1555 3 5 WTO 2005 1. 72 UNCTAD 2004 WTO 3.8% IMF OECD 2004 2. 74 4. 85 9 24 2004 9 21 5. 87 1.75% 2005 3. 81 6. 90 FTA 8 0.1% 8 0.3% 8 0.1% UNCTAD 8 0.1%

4 1516 7. 93 2004 7 25 126 7 8. 95 2004 3.56% 8 26% 9. 98 8 38.5% 2005 3.151 8 0.8% 8 20.9% 10. 106 8 2005 200 8 10.9 8 1.6% 8 2004 180 13 11. 113 114 115

1555 5 2004 4.1% Global Insight GI GI 2004 soft patch GI 2004 9 0.5 GDP 40 50 core inflation

6 1555 2004 4.1% 2004 4.2% 2004 5.0% 1984 5.0% 4.8% 2004 7 8 1.6% 3.9% GDP 3.4% 4.0% 2004 4.2% 2005 3.4% 2006 2009 3.0% 2003 6 6.3% 2004 8 5.4% 2000 4% 1970 1984 10% 2004 1.2% GDP 70%

1555 7 FED 2.5% 2005 2006 4% 2004 1.9% 2003 2004 GDP 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 2003 0.8% 2004 3.7% 2004 2 1 1.293 4 1 1.200 2004 7 2001 2001 2003 2003 3 2004 7 2002 ECB 2005

8 1555 2005 2004 1.9% 2004 3.4% 2004 GDP 0.7% 0.9% 3.7% 2004 3.4% 2003 11 Bank of England 5 2001 2003 2003

1555 9 2004 4.2% 2003 2004 2% 2% GDP 1.3% 2.0% 2004 4.2% 2004 5.3% 2004 GDP 12.1% 12.5% 3.4% 4.3% 0.2% 9.6% 20% 40%

10 1555 11% 5.3% 3.1% 4.1% 0.7% 1.4% 2003 SARS 2004 2004 5.3% WTO 2001 9% 2003 14% 20% 2004 4.7% 2004 2004 2004 GDP 4.7% 1997 5.4%

1555 11 1 % 2002 2003 2004 2005 GDP 1990 1.7 1.8 2.8 2.7 4.1 4.3 3.4 3.5 1.9 2.2 2.9 2.9 4.2 4.7 3.4 3.8 1.9 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.2 4.9 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.4 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.5 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 4.0 3.8 4.2 4.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.1 0.1 0.2-0.1-0.1 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.2 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.9 4.8 4.8 5.8 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.3 2.2 2.2 4.1 4.1 5.3 5.4 3.8 4.0-0.4-0.4 2.5 2.5 4.2 4.5 2.1 2.3 8.0 8.0 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.5 7.0 7.3 6.9 6.9 3.1 3.1 4.4 6.0 6.0 5.5-0.9-0.9 1.6 1.5 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.6 1.9 1.9-0.2-0.2 4.3 3.1 3.5 3.4 1.8 1.8 3.8 2.8 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.4 2.9 2.9 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.8 5.3 5.5 3.6 3.1 3.8 3.0 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.5 0.3 0.3 2.4 2.3 5.2 5.3 4.0 4.3-0.6-0.6 0.3 0.3 4.5 5.1 3.7 4.8-0.8-0.9 0.3 0.3 2.2 2.1 2.9 2.8-0.7-0.7 0.1 0.2 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 6.7 6.5 8.8 8.9 5.1 5.2-1.4-1.4 3.4 3.4 6.3 6.4 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.6-0.9-0.9-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2 0.0 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.81 0.80 0.62 0.62 0.56 0.56 0.54 0.54 0.57 0.56 118.76 118.76 107.10 107.10 104.73 102.82 99.53 96.52 4.7 4.7 16.2 15.6 17.6 15.4 8.9 9.0 1.0 1.0 13.5 13.3 15.1 13.5 7.9 8.3 2004 6 Global Insight Inc., World Overview, Third Quarter, 2004.

12 1555 2004 GDP 4.0% 2004 2005 2004 2005 2005 3.7% 2.5% 3% 3.0% 2004 5.9% 2004 GDP 5.9% 2005 5.7% GCC GCC 2004 2005 2006 GDP 4.5% GDP 4.5% GDP 2.6% 2003 1.9%

1555 13 GCC 2004 8 0.3% 8 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% CPI-W 0.3% 7 2003 8 2.9% 0.4% 8 536.94 2003 519.0 1,662 2004 1,662 1,472 1,636 1,939 1,993 3,447 3,629 850 717 122 133 861 / 820 7 23 185 207 3 1,386 1,468 1,185

14 1555 3,067 +309 303 402 99 607 11 2,652 +309 356 327 +739 88 +197 9 18 1 4,000 9 18 35 33.6 1.4 4 34.1 33.9 2,000 9 11 2.3% 228.3 287.8 5,000 4 288.2 1,000 7 501 7 959 1,460 6 550 501 49 7 28 675 18 1,220 545 46 274 240 3 2003 7 93 103 12.0% 196 15.5% 7 / -14-4 - 1-1 -1 +4-14 -4-1 -1-1 +4 7

1555 15 2-1 % * ** * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 1993 2.7 3.3 6.9 1.2 3.0 3.00 6.00 4,568.3 3.7 5,894.4 9.9-1,326.1 1994 4.0 5.4 6.1 0.6 2.6 4.75 8.50 5,024.0 10.0 6,685.9 13.4-1,661.9 1995 2.5 4.8 5.6 1.9 2.8 5.25 8.65 5,758.5 14.6 7,495.7 12.1-1,737.3 1996 3.7 4.3 5.4 2.7 3.0 5.00 8.25 6,120.6 6.3 8,033.3 7.2-1,912.7 1997 4.5 7.4 4.9 0.4 2.3 5.00 8.50 6,797.0 11.1 8,763.7 9.1-1,966.7 1998 4.2 5.9 4.5-0.8 1.6 4.50 7.75 6,703.2-1.4 9,171.8 4.7-2,468.5 1999 4.4 4.4 4.2 1.8 2.2 5.00 8.50 6,845.5 2.1 10,299.9 12.3-3,454.3 2000 3.7 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 6.00 9.50 7,722.1 12.8 12,244.2 18.9-4,522.1 2001 0.8-3.4 4.8 2.0 2.8 3.25 6.75 7,187.6-6.9 11,459.3-6.4-4,271.7 2002 1.9-0.6 5.8-1.3 1.6 1.17 4.67 6,818.3-5.1 11,647.3 1.6-4,829.0 2003 3.0 0.3 6.0 3.2 2.3 2.10 4.10 7,131.2 4.6 12,606.7 8.2-5,475.5 2002 7 0.4 5.9-1.1 1.6 1.25 4.75 582.7-0.2 973.9 3.2-391.2 8 2.6 0.6 5.7-1.5 1.7 1.25 4.75 582.5-0.7 999.8 7.5-417.3 9 1.1 5.6-1.6 1.6 1.25 4.75 578.5 4.3 994.1 8.6-415.6 10 1.0 5.7 0.7 2.0 1.25 4.75 570.7 1.4 971.8 5.5-401.1 11 0.7 1.6 6.0 1.0 2.2 0.75 4.25 575.3 2.7 1,022.8 13.6-447.5 12 1.4 6.0 1.2 2.4 0.75 4.25 557.0 0.7 1,035.8 19.8-478.7 2003 1 1.3 5.7 2.5 2.6 2.25 4.25 570.8 3.6 1,026.9 14.7-456.1 2 1.9 1.5 5.8 3.4 3.0 2.25 4.25 578.9 5.4 1,026.8 11.8-447.9 3 0.4 5.8 3.9 3.1 2.25 4.25 585.0 6.2 1,060.3 15.1-475.4 4-0.6 6.0 2.5 2.3 2.25 4.25 573.2 0.5 1,035.0 7.4-461.8 5 4.1-0.8 6.1 2.5 2.1 2.25 4.25 578.2 1.0 1,029.2 6.3-451.0 6-1.5 6.4 3.0 2.1 2.00 4.00 594.2 2.9 1,036.8 5.6-442.6 7-0.6 6.2 3.0 2.1 2.00 4.00 600.9 3.1 1,047.7 7.6-446.8 8 7.4-0.6 6.1 3.5 2.2 2.00 4.00 582.3 0.0 1,026.3 2.6-443.9 9 0.1 6.1 3.5 2.3 2.00 4.00 599.3 3.6 1,054.9 6.1-455.6 10 0.7 6.0 3.4 2.0 2.00 4.00 611.7 7.2 1,073.5 10.5-461.8 11 4.2 1.5 5.9 3.4 1.8 2.00 4.00 630.8 9.6 1,078.2 5.4-447.4 12 2.3 5.7 3.9 1.8 2.00 4.00 626.1 12.4 1,111.4 7.3-485.2 2004 1 2.4 5.6 3.3 2.0 2.00 4.00 616.8 8.1 1,112.8 8.4-495.9 2 4.5 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.7 2.00 4.00 649.3 12.2 1,147.1 11.7-497.7 3 3.5 5.7 1.5 1.7 2.00 4.00 673.0 15.1 1,187.1 12.0-514.1 4 4.7 5.6 3.6 2.3 2.00 4.00 659.5 15.1 1,189.4 14.9-529.9 5 2.8 5.7 5.6 4.9 3.0 2.00 4.00 686.9 18.8 1,201.7 16.8-514.7 6 5.3 5.6 4.0 3.2 2.25 4.00 646.8 8.8 1,237.9 19.4-591.2 7 5.1 5.5 4.0 3.0 2.25 4.25 674.8 12.3 1,219.9 16.4-545.1 8 5.2 5.4 3.4 2.7 2.50 4.50 * ** 1 2 3

16 1555 9 9 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 100.7 6 6 3.8% 8 7 1.5% 6 1.3% 7 1% 7 2.1% 1.6% IC 8 7 10.3% 7 1.5% 9 0.6% 7 4.9% 7 4.9% 6 0.3 6 107 2003 4 5.3% 6 0.4 4.4% 6 0.2 25 9.4%

1555 17 7 318 2003 24 14 6 4 50 7 24 90 2003 21 5 25 34 6 25 7 6,373 2003 8 20 46 35 2,230 3 7 0.1% 7 97.7 2000 =100 6 0.3% 2003 0.1% 97.7 2000 =100 6 0.1% 2003 0.2% 2003 5 2003 3.9% 1.5% 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 7 44% 7 7 5.3 2003 14.3% 8 EU 7.6% 31.7% 22.7% 7 4.2 2003 8.2% 5 22.5% 53.1% 52.2%

18 1555 2-2 % * ** * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 1993 0.2 2.5-1.5 1.3 1.75 3.00 3,662.2 6.3 2,442.1 4.8 1,220.1 1994 1.1 0.9 2.9-1.7 0.6 1.75 3.00 3,955.4 8.0 2,743.9 12.4 1,211.5 1995 1.9 3.0 3.2-0.8-0.1 0.50 1.63 4,429.5 12.0 3,361.1 22.5 1,068.4 1996 3.5 2.1 3.4-1.6 0.1 0.50 1.63 4,110.6-7.2 3,495.4 4.0 615.2 1997 1.8 4.1 3.4 0.7 1.8 0.50 1.63 4,210.1 2.4 3,392.6-2.9 817.5 1998-1.2-7.0 4.1-1.5 0.6 0.50 1.50 3,879.6-7.9 2,805.0-17.3 1,074.6 1999 0.2 0.2 4.7-1.5-0.3 0.50 1.38 4,188.7 8.0 3,112.4 11.0 1,076.2 2000 2.8 5.7 4.7 0.1-0.7 0.50 1.50 4,793.0 14.4 3,797.3 22.0 995.7 2001 0.4-6.8 5.0-2.3-0.7 0.10 1.38 4,041.4-15.7 3,494.3-8.0 547.1 2002-0.3-1.3 5.4-2.1-0.9 0.10 1.38 4,167.2 3.1 3,376.0-3.4 791.3 2003 2.5 3.3 5.3-0.8-0.3 0.10 1.38 4,677.5 12.2 3,801.2 12.6 876.3 2002 7 0.9 5.4-2.1-0.8 0.10 1.38 372.4 15.0 309.3 6.5 63.1 8 4.1 2.3 5.5-2.0-0.9 0.10 1.38 341.8 8.5 288.1-0.5 53.7 9 5.3 5.4-2.0-0.7 0.10 1.38 369.7 5.6 282.4 7.7 87.3 10 5.5 5.5-1.6-0.9 0.10 1.38 375.4 11.8 303.4 1.8 72.0 11 0.7 6.8 5.3-1.2-0.4 0.10 1.38 378.6 19.1 306.0 10.2 72.6 12 5.6 5.3-1.3-0.3 0.10 1.38 373.6 20.1 308.6 19.0 65.0 2003 1 7.7 5.5-1.0-0.4 0.10 1.38 323.8 20.7 315.7 23.5 8.1 2-0.1 4.7 5.2-0.8-0.2 0.10 1.38 364.5 21.0 286.4 17.8 78.1 3 3.9 5.4-0.8-0.1 0.10 1.38 403.0 10.8 322.4 20.3 80.5 4 3.9 5.4-0.8-0.1 0.10 1.38 388.8 15.8 318.9 17.0 69.9 5 4.3 0.7 5.4-1.1-0.2 0.10 1.38 359.1 9.4 301.5 7.9 57.5 6 1.2 5.3-1.1-0.4 0.10 1.38 377.7 5.4 306.2 17.9 71.4 7 1.1 5.3-0.8-0.2 0.10 1.38 392.6 5.4 325.9 5.4 66.7 8 2.2-0.3 5.1-0.7-0.3 0.10 1.38 364.8 6.7 299.2 3.9 65.6 9 2.6 5.1-0.5-0.2 0.10 1.38 408.9 10.6 316.5 12.1 92.4 10 3.6 5.2-0.5 0.0 0.10 1.38 425.4 13.3 332.6 9.6 92.9 11 7.6 5.4 5.2-0.5-0.5 0.10 1.38 415.0 9.6 324.6 6.1 90.3 12 4.9 4.9-0.2-0.4 0.10 1.38 454.0 21.5 351.3 13.8 102.8 2004 1 6.5 5.0-0.1-0.3 0.10 1.38 401.3 24.0 354.3 12.2 47.0 2 6.4 3.8 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.10 1.38 447.5 22.8 316.0 10.3 131.5 3 4.5 4.7 0.2-0.1 0.10 1.38 501.1 24.3 397.6 23.3 103.4 4 8.7 4.7 0.6-0.4 0.10 1.38 476.1 22.5 375.8 17.8 100.3 5 1.3 8.4 4.6 0.9-0.5 0.10 1.38 419.8 16.9 337.1 11.8 82.7 6 7.7 4.6 1.4 0.0 0.10 1.38 483.2 27.9 378.7 23.7 104.4 7 7.1 4.9 1.6-0.1 0.10 1.38 485.4 23.6 381.6 17.1 103.8 8 1.7 0.10 1.38 432.8 18.7 380.7 27.2 52.2 * ** 1 2 3 4

1555 19 7 1.1 2003 44.2% 13 1. 25 7 0.4% 0.1% Eurostat 2004 7 25 2.4% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 25 2004 7 25 4.2% 4.6% 2.9% 3.0% 1.6% 2.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.6% 17 4 +13.5% +9.9% +8.5% +8.0% -3.2% -1.2% -0.6% - 0.2% 25 7 9.0% Eurostat 2004 7 9.0% 8.9% 25 9.0% 0.1 9.1% 2004 7 4.2% 4.3% 4.5% 4.7% 5 18.8% 15.9% 11.3% 11.0% 1 11 11 3 2003 6 3.8% 2004 6 4.8% 5.6% 6.4% 3.8% 4.3% 7.9% 8.8% 10.3% 8.8% 12.6% 11.3% (17.0% 15.9%) 2004 7 2003 7.9% 8.0% 10.2% 10.3% 25 8.3% 10.0% 25 17.4% 25 18.0% 2003 7 17.2% 18.5% 25

20 1555 6.9% 8.1% 8.8% 2004 6 39.1% 27.1% 2003 12 27.1% 2004 1 25.9% 2004 7 1,270 25 1,930 10 25 7 2.3% Eurostat 2004 8 2.3% 25 2.3% 2003 8 2.1% 25 1.9% 4 2% 2004 8 European Index of Consumer Prices 2.1% 0.1 8 2.5% 2004 8 8.3% 0.3% 0.2% 2004 8 0.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 7.8% 7.2% 7.0% 4.9% 8 11 6 12-0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% 8.4% 6.5% 4.9% 4.1% 25 7 0.4% Eurostat 2004 7 2.8% 25 3.1% 0.4% 2004 7 25 2.2% 2.3% 5.1% 6.1% 0.7% 0.8% 4.2% 4.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% 1.7% +9.3% +7.8% +7.2% +1.3% +1.9%

1555 21-0.4% 7 25 126 7 Eurostat 2004 7 25 126 129 90 25 7 22 16 25 2004 1 6 659 644 388 270 322 289 2004 1 6 25 2% 1% 18% 15% 12% 11% 39% 24% 19% 25 25 292 351 25 290 334 173 159 127 119 25 59 61 2004 1 6 853 188 159 107 96 477 253 146 71 61 1 8 2% 8 2003 2% 6 7 1.7% 1.8% 2003 24% 8.1% 1.6% 20.4% 12.2% 0.2% 2.5% 0.7% 6.2%

22 1555 2-3-1 % * * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) 1993-1.1-6.6 8.9 0.0 4.4 5.75 6.00 3,824.7-9.4 3,460.3-14.0 364.4 1994 2.3 4.2 9.6 1.6 2.8 4.50 5.20 4,297.2 12.4 3,853.5 11.4 443.7 1995 1.7 0.7 9.4 1.9 1.7 3.00 5.50 5,238.0 21.9 4,642.7 20.5 595.3 1996 0.8-0.2 10.4-0.4 1.4 2.50 4.50 5,242.0 0.1 4,587.8-1.2 654.2 1997 1.4 2.8 11.5 1.9 1.9 2.50 4.50 5,124.3-2.2 4,456.2-2.9 668.1 1998 2.0 3.5 11.1-2.0 0.9 2.50 4.50 5,434.0 6.0 4,714.2 5.8 719.8 1999 1.8 1.4 10.5-0.9 0.6 3.46 4.10 5,428.8-0.1 4,735.5 0.5 693.3 2000 3.0 5.3 9.6 5.5 1.9 5.06 4.60 5,494.4 1.2 5,007.4 5.7 487.0 2001 0.6-0.2 9.4 1.7 2.5 5.23 4.47 5,706.0 3.9 4,863.6-2.9 842.4 2002 0.2-1.3 9.8-0.1 1.3 4.21 3.27 6,131.9 7.5 4,936.9 1.5 1,195.1 2003-0.2 0.1 10.5 0.8 1.0 3.25 2.34 7,478.9 22.0 6,012.9 21.8 1,465.9 2002 7-0.6 9.8-0.8 1.0 4.25 3.30 544.0 14.2 426.2 7.7 117.8 8 0.4-0.8 9.8-0.5 1.1 4.25 3.28 507.8 9.3 406.2 5.4 101.6 9-0.5 9.8 0.3 1.0 4.25 3.28 539.6 19.3 432.6 11.5 106.9 10 0.2 9.9 0.9 1.3 4.25 3.29 575.0 10.9 466.1 8.1 108.9 11 0.5 3.0 10.0 1.1 1.1 4.25 3.29 587.6 20.6 467.5 10.7 120.1 12-0.5 10.1 1.1 1.1 3.75 2.85 518.2 20.1 432.7 21.1 85.5 2003 1 0.6 10.3 1.2 1.1 3.75 2.79 566.4 28.0 471.1 33.2 95.4 2 0.1 0.4 10.5 1.6 1.3 3.75 2.77 578.9 29.0 464.0 28.3 114.9 3 0.7 10.6 1.3 1.2 3.50 2.53 602.6 26.7 498.2 33.6 104.4 4 0.2 10.7 0.3 1.0 3.50 2.55 582.7 18.2 482.7 17.8 100.0 5-0.6 0.5 10.6-0.2 0.7 3.50 2.57 627.0 36.1 508.9 37.0 118.1 6-1.9 10.6 0.5 1.0 3.00 2.18 631.0 17.1 509.7 16.9 121.3 7 1.2 10.6 0.4 0.9 3.00 2.12 656.6 20.7 495.6 16.3 161.0 8-0.3-2.6 10.6 0.8 1.1 3.00 2.12 553.9 9.1 437.7 7.8 116.2 9-2.4 10.5 0.6 1.1 3.00 2.13 654.8 21.4 493.6 14.1 161.2 10 1.1 10.5 0.8 1.2 3.00 2.10 681.2 18.5 554.4 18.9 126.8 11 0.0 0.7 10.5 1.5 1.3 3.00 2.11 686.2 16.8 565.4 20.9 120.9 12 2.8 10.4 1.3 1.1 3.00 2.13 657.5 26.9 531.7 22.9 125.8 2004 1 1.5 10.3 0.4 1.2 3.00 2.08 702.8 24.1 545.1 15.7 157.7 2 0.8 1.6 10.3 0.1 0.9 3.00 2.06 715.6 23.6 562.5 21.2 153.2 3 0.2 10.4 0.8 1.1 3.00 2.04 796.0 32.1 593.1 19.0 202.9 4 1.9 10.5 2.4 1.6 3.00 2.05 740.1 27.0 568.9 17.8 171.2 5 1.5 3.6 10.4 3.6 2.0 3.00 2.06 728.8 16.2 559.7 10.0 169.2 6 2.6 10.5 3.5 1.7 3.00 2.08 765.5 21.3 586.9 15.1 178.6 7 2.2 10.5 3.9 1.8 3.00 2.08 766.8 16.8 601.1 21.3 165.6 8 10.6 4.2 2.0 3.00 2.08 * 1 1995 2 3 1999 1 Marginal Lending Facility 4 1999 1 Prime rate 5 1999 CEIC 1 2 3 International Financial Statistics 4 5 6 CEIC

1555 23 9 ZEW 9 45.3 38.4 2003 6 ZEW 2003 2003 1,070 13.0% 12.7% 3 60% 730.2 604.8 2003 6.4 108 7 2 7 37 7 6 34 37 7 52 6 1 24 27 7 15 6 2 7 6 1% 2% 1% 1% 10 130 2014 260 GDP 1.9% 2.5% 5.8% 10 2007 2008 53

24 1555 2-3-2 % * * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) 1993 2.3 2.2 10.2 4.0 1.6 5.50 5.50 1,830.3-3.3 2,030.6-4.5-200.3 1994 4.4 5.4 9.2 2.5 2.5 6.25 6.25 2,073.7 13.3 2,242.6 10.4-168.9 1995 2.8 1.7 8.0 4.0 3.4 7.50 6.50 2,425.5 17.0 2,610.9 16.4-185.4 1996 2.6 1.3 7.2 2.6 2.5 6.75 6.00 2,615.7 7.8 2,818.0 7.9-202.3 1997 3.5 1.1 5.5 1.0 3.1 8.25 7.25 2,813.1 7.5 3,008.0 6.7-194.9 1998 3.7 1.0 4.7 0.5 3.4 7.25 6.25 2,717.8-3.4 3,058.0 1.7-340.2 1999 2.4 0.8 4.3 1.2 1.6 6.75 5.75 2,689.4-1.0 3,112.8 1.8-423.4 2000 3.1 1.6 3.7 2.6 2.9 6.00 5.81 2,845.4 5.8 3,294.6 5.8-449.2 2001 2.1-2.2 3.2 0.1 1.8 5.08 4.77 2,753.4-3.2 3,236.8-1.8-483.4 2002 1.6-3.5 3.2 0.3 1.6 4.00 3.87 2,794.5 1.5 3,315.8 2.4-521.3 2003 2.2-0.5 3.1 1.5 2.9 3.69 3.55 3,059.7 9.5 3,818.9 15.2-759.2 2002 7-2.7 3.1 0.3 1.5 4.00 3.93 254.2 13.0 293.1 12.7-38.9 8 2.3-3.4 3.2 0.4 1.4 4.00 3.77 227.0 2.2 281.5 4.5-54.4 9-2.4 3.1 0.5 1.7 4.00 3.79 240.1 6.5 284.6 10.6-44.6 10-1.5 3.0 0.7 2.1 4.00 3.75 234.7 1.7 291.0 10.1-56.3 11 2.3-1.4 3.0 1.3 2.7 4.00 3.80 225.4 3.1 293.9 13.1-68.5 12-1.5 3.0 1.3 2.9 4.00 3.84 235.4 12.7 292.4 14.2-57.0 2003 1-1.4 3.3 1.6 3.0 4.00 3.80 255.4 16.4 315.4 22.7-60.0 2 1.9-0.5 3.3 1.8 3.2 3.75 3.50 258.1 18.0 309.2 22.1-51.2 3-1.2 3.3 2.2 3.1 3.75 3.47 246.9 13.7 305.1 18.6-58.3 4-1.5 3.2 1.6 3.1 3.75 3.45 261.1 10.6 299.6 12.1-38.4 5 2.2-3.3 3.1 1.1 3.0 3.75 3.44 248.3-1.6 314.1 14.3-65.8 6 2.7 3.1 1.2 2.9 3.75 3.47 241.4 3.1 317.6 17.8-76.2 7 0.5 3.1 1.3 3.1 3.50 3.31 256.5 0.9 312.4 6.6-56.0 8 2.2-1.0 3.1 1.4 2.9 3.50 3.40 245.3 8.1 303.0 7.6-57.6 9-0.7 3.0 1.2 2.8 3.50 3.52 244.5 1.8 321.0 12.8-76.5 10 0.8 2.9 1.3 2.6 3.50 3.65 264.8 12.8 335.6 15.3-70.8 11 2.7-0.2 2.9 1.6 2.5 3.75 3.81 257.8 14.4 334.7 13.9-77.0 12-0.4 2.9 1.7 2.8 3.75 3.83 279.7 18.8 351.2 20.1-71.4 2004 1 0.4 2.9 1.5 2.6 3.75 3.92 264.6 3.6 366.8 16.3-102.2 2 3.4-0.7 2.9 1.4 2.5 4.00 4.01 278.4 7.9 357.7 15.7-79.4 3 0.2 2.9 1.1 2.6 4.00 4.13 279.1 13.1 358.4 17.4-79.2 4 1.3 2.9 1.7 2.5 4.00 4.20 281.4 7.7 365.8 22.1-84.5 5 3.7 1.5 2.8 2.3 2.8 4.25 4.40 274.3 10.5 360.2 14.7-85.9 6 0.9 2.7 2.4 3.0 4.50 4.61 282.7 17.1 375.2 18.1-92.5 7 0.1 2.7 2.5 3.0 4.50 4.67 289.0 12.7 384.1 22.9-95.1 8 2.0 2.6 3.2 4.75 * 1 Base Lending Rate 2 1999 CEIC 3 1999 2-3-1

1555 25 16% 3 225 15 3 1 225 2004 2.5% 2004 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 1 0.8% 0.6% 4

26 1555 2-3-3 % * * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) 1993-0.9-3.7 11.7 2.8 2.1 7.60 8.15 1,992.3-12.4 1,920.8-14.7 71.5 1994 1.9 3.9 12.3 1.4 1.7 5.44 8.25 2,308.1 15.9 2,235.6 16.4 72.5 1995 1.8 2.5 11.6 2.7 1.8 4.96 7.70 2,786.5 20.7 2,676.5 19.7 110.0 1996 1.1 0.9 12.3-3.5 2.0 3.60 6.44 2,818.6 1.2 2,669.3-0.3 149.4 1997 1.9 3.7 12.5-0.3 1.2 3.15 6.55 2,824.2 0.2 2,546.0-4.6 278.2 1998 3.5 4.7 11.5-0.7 0.8 3.28 6.55 3,017.2 6.8 2,755.5 8.2 261.8 1999 3.2 2.1 10.8-1.5 0.5 3.46 4.10 2,981.8-1.2 2,781.1 0.9 200.7 2000 4.3 3.8 9.5 7.5 1.7 5.06 4.60 2,919.2-2.1 2,959.1 6.4-39.9 2001 2.1 0.9 8.7 0.7 1.6 5.23 4.47 2,914.8-0.1 2,953.3-0.2-38.5 2002 1.1-0.7 9.0-0.3 1.9 4.21 3.27 3,079.0 5.6 3,068.5 3.9 10.6 2003 0.5-0.8 9.5 1.0 2.1 3.25 2.34 3,605.6 17.1 3,654.1 19.1-48.5 2002 7-1.3 9.0-0.4 1.6 4.25 3.30 279.0 20.9 273.0 14.5 5.9 8 1.1-1.2 9.0-0.1 1.8 4.25 3.28 269.8 3.3 267.4 6.2 2.5 9-0.9 9.0 0.3 1.8 4.25 3.28 265.8 11.2 266.2 8.9-0.4 10-0.5 9.0 0.8 1.9 4.25 3.29 267.5 11.8 264.9 12.0 2.6 11 1.3 0.5 9.0 0.9 2.2 4.25 3.29 269.4 15.4 275.9 19.1-6.5 12 0.0 9.3 1.7 2.3 3.75 2.85 270.6 21.8 268.5 19.4 2.2 2003 1 0.6 9.1 2.1 2.0 3.75 2.79 283.7 18.8 287.5 21.7-3.8 2 0.8 1.4 9.2 2.8 2.6 3.75 2.77 286.9 22.2 290.4 21.9-3.5 3-0.3 9.4 2.5 2.6 3.50 2.53 286.6 21.8 293.5 23.7-6.9 4-1.4 9.5 1.0 2.0 3.50 2.55 287.9 17.1 294.3 21.4-6.4 5-0.1-2.3 9.5 0.7 1.8 3.50 2.57 291.5 15.6 299.1 21.4-7.7 6-1.9 9.5 0.9 2.0 3.00 2.18 300.5 20.3 315.4 25.2-14.9 7-1.5 9.6 0.6 1.9 3.00 2.12 299.0 7.2 296.8 8.7 2.2 8 0.4-2.2 9.6 0.5 1.9 3.00 2.12 290.5 7.6 293.7 9.9-3.3 9-1.5 9.7 0.1 2.1 3.00 2.13 300.8 13.2 299.7 12.6 1.1 10 0.6 9.7 0.3 2.2 3.00 2.10 320.2 19.7 329.0 24.2-8.8 11 1.1-1.0 9.6 0.8 2.3 3.00 2.11 319.4 18.6 323.1 17.1-3.6 12 0.2 9.7 0.3 2.2 3.00 2.13 338.7 25.1 331.6 23.5 7.1 2004 1 0.3 9.6 0.3 2.0 3.00 2.08 352.9 24.4 346.0 20.4 6.8 2 1.7 0.8 9.8 0.0 1.8 3.00 2.06 344.2 20.0 344.8 18.7-0.5 3 1.5 9.8 0.3 1.7 3.00 2.04 343.7 19.9 340.4 16.0 3.4 4 0.9 9.8 1.3 2.1 3.00 2.05 332.8 15.6 341.5 16.0-8.7 5 2.0 3.3 9.8 2.2 2.6 3.00 2.06 337.6 15.8 349.1 16.7-11.5 6 2.6 9.9 2.2 2.4 3.00 2.08 345.2 14.9 357.5 13.3-12.3 7 2.5 9.8 2.1 2.3 3.00 2.08 354.3 18.5 364.5 22.8-10.2 8 2.4 3.00 2.08 * 1 1999 1 Marginal Lending Facility 2 1999 1 Prime rate 2-3-1

1555 27 2-3-4 % * * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) 1993-0.9-2.4 10.1 3.8 4.5 8.00 9.88 1,691.5-5.1 1,402.6-21.4 288.9 1994 2.2 5.2 11.2 3.7 4.0 7.50 9.38 1,914.2 13.2 1,598.5 14.0 315.7 1995 2.9 5.4 11.6 7.9 5.2 9.00 11.50 2,340.0 22.2 1,952.7 22.2 387.3 1996 1.1-0.9 11.7 1.9 4.0 7.50 9.88 2,520.4 7.7 1,979.2 1.4 541.2 1997 2.0 3.3 11.8 1.3 2.0 5.50 8.88 2,404.0-4.6 2,005.3 1.3 398.8 1998 1.8 1.9 11.9 0.1 2.0 3.00 6.38 2,425.7 0.9 2,069.4 3.2 356.3 1999 1.6 0.1 11.5-0.3 1.7 3.46 4.10 2,308.3-4.8 2,104.5 1.7 203.8 2000 2.9 3.6 10.6 6.0 2.5 5.06 4.60 2,339.7 1.4 2,324.7 10.5 15.1 2001 2.1-1.0 9.5 1.9 2.8 5.23 4.47 2,380.8 1.8 2,296.0-1.2 84.8 2002 0.4-2.1 9.0-0.2 2.5 4.21 3.27 2,485.8 4.4 2,396.5 4.4 89.3 2003 0.4-0.6 8.7 1.6 2.7 3.25 2.34 2,886.2 16.1 2,865.5 19.6 20.7 2002 7-1.6 0.1 2.2 4.25 3.30 255.5 19.3 227.8 17.5 27.7 8 0.4-1.7 9.0 0.3 2.4 4.25 3.28 167.5 9.7 153.6 10.0 13.9 9-1.5 0.5 2.6 4.25 3.28 214.3 13.4 209.5 8.4 4.7 10-2.1 1.1 2.7 4.25 3.29 250.1 12.8 237.0 16.2 13.2 11 0.9 1.5 8.9 1.2 2.8 4.25 3.29 234.4 15.5 227.1 19.9 7.3 12-0.8 1.5 2.8 3.75 2.85 210.1 13.0 209.0 21.6 1.2 2003 1-0.5 2.5 2.8 3.75 2.79 194.8 23.1 215.6 24.8-20.8 2 0.7-0.8 9.0 2.8 2.6 3.75 2.77 222.5 23.7 227.0 27.8-4.6 3-1.1 2.8 2.7 3.50 2.53 244.4 23.4 248.5 33.3-4.2 4-0.4 2.0 2.7 3.50 2.55 247.0 27.7 243.2 24.2 3.8 5 0.2-3.6 8.8 1.6 2.7 3.50 2.57 249.7 14.3 253.4 24.3-3.7 6-3.1 1.5 2.6 3.00 2.18 239.5 16.5 245.6 25.2-6.1 7 0.3 1.3 2.7 3.00 2.12 290.4 13.6 259.4 13.9 31.0 8 0.4 0.7 8.5 1.4 2.8 3.00 2.12 169.8 1.4 154.5 0.6 15.3 9 0.7 1.0 2.7 3.00 2.13 249.2 16.3 253.3 20.9-4.1 10 0.4 0.7 2.6 3.00 2.10 294.2 17.6 275.1 16.1 19.2 11 0.1-0.7 8.5 1.1 2.5 3.00 2.11 246.8 5.3 244.5 7.7 2.2 12 0.5 0.8 2.5 3.00 2.13 237.8 13.2 245.2 17.3-7.3 2004 1 0.3 0.3 2.2 3.00 2.08 208.6 7.1 238.1 10.4-29.4 2 0.7-8.8 8.5 0.3 2.3 3.00 2.06 265.3 19.2 275.0 21.1-9.7 3-0.7 0.6 2.3 3.00 2.04 305.2 24.9 296.7 19.4 8.6 4 1.7 1.7 2.3 3.00 2.05 279.9 13.3 280.2 15.2-0.3 5 1.1 3.5 2.9 2.3 3.00 2.06 229.4-8.1 263.0 3.8-33.6 6 1.3 3.2 2.5 3.00 2.08 249.3 4.1 255.6 4.1-6.3 7-3.7 3.3 2.3 3.00 2.08 333.2 14.8 294.2 13.4 39.0 8 2.3 3.00 2.08 * 1 1999 1 Marginal Lending Facility 2 1999 1 Prime rate 3 1999 CEIC 2-3-1

28 1555 2002 1 2002 1 500 4% 2001 2003 20% 16% 2. 9 25 WTO WTO 10 9 21 5 WTO 20 2004 100 1. 8 30.3% 産 8 50 32,186

1555 29 30.3% 7 0.8 93,981 7.4% 8 50 5,070 26.3% 7 4.9 8 産 16.3% 7 1.3 産 41.7% 0.8 産 23.9% 0.7 8 17.1% 2004 8 500 33,911 17.1% 8 4,545 15.9% 0.4 1.2 8 13.1% 8 4,263 13.1% 1 8 33,721 12.9% 8 14.2% 2,820 1,442 11% 23.4% 16.3% 17.6% 48.7% 38.8% 9.8% 19.6% 606 3,529 12.5% 128 1.8% 8 5.3% 8.7% 2004 8 CPI 5.3% 7 8 CPI 1997 2 2004 CPI 3% 8 9 1 1.8% 8 8.7% 1.6% 12.9% 7 0.9 6.8% 7 0.4 8 18.2% 16.7% 17.3% 18.5% 7 1 5

30 1555 26.6% 12.3% 25.2% 19.8% 8 35.8% 40.8% 2004 1 8 7,221.3 38.2% 3,605.9 3,615.4 35.8% 40.8% 2003 4,000 2004 5,000 2010 1 8 983.1 36.6% 514 469.1 44.9 2004 4 9.5 2004 8 3 1,116.5 36.6% 1,070.4 36.3% 1,066.1 27.7% 7 45% 58.3% 49.2% 48.8% 1. 2004 6 8 6.8% 5 7 6.9% 2004 6 8 6.8% 5 7 6.9% 3.5% 3.3% 2004 5 7 6 8 2004 5 7 24.8 6 8 24.9 800 12.2 11.8 4,100 2004 5 7 328.7 6 8 329.4 6,800 353.5 354.3 7,600 2004 6 8

1555 31 CEPA CEPA 9 6.6 3,600 CEPA 3 5 8 1,895 90% 6.6 3,600 18 528 86% 6 649 97 CEPA CEPA 2005 CEPA 3 5 CEPA CEPA 18 CEPA CEPA CEPA

32 1555 * 1 2 2-4 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) * * 1993 6.3-0.6 2.0 8.8 6.50 1,352.5 13.2 1,386.6 12.4-34.1 1994 5.5-0.2 1.9 8.6 8.50 1,514.0 11.9 1,617.8 16.7-103.8 1995 3.9 1.0 3.2 9.2 8.75 1,737.6 14.8 1,927.7 19.2-190.2 1996 4.3-3.7 2.8 5.3 8.50 1,807.5 4.0 1,985.6 3.0-178.1 1997 5.1-0.8 2.2 5.8 9.50 1,880.7 4.1 2,086.3 5.1-205.6 1998-5.0-8.7 4.7 2.9 9.00 1,740.3-7.5 1,846.1-11.5-105.8 1999 3.4-6.4 6.3-4.0 8.50 1,740.9 0.0 1,796.7-2.7-55.8 2000 10.2-0.5 5.1-3.7 9.50 2,021.0 16.1 2,130.7 18.6-109.8 2001 0.5-4.4 4.9-1.6 5.13 1,901.0-5.9 2,014.8-5.4-113.8 2002 1.9-12.0 7.3-3.0 5.00 2,003.2 5.4 2,080.2 3.2-77.0 2003 3.2-9.2 7.9-2.6 5.00 2,236.3 11.6 2,321.5 11.6-85.2 2002 7 7.8-3.5 5.13 187.7 9.8 194.2 7.2-6.4 8 3.0-7.2 7.6-3.3 5.13 181.1 5.7 185.0 5.8-3.9 9 7.4-3.7 5.13 189.8 10.0 193.8 6.2-4.0 10 7.2-3.6 5.13 193.0 12.9 196.6 13.4-3.6 11 4.8-9.2 7.1-3.6 5.00 180.8 17.3 182.3 15.2-1.5 12 7.2-1.6 5.00 173.5 16.7 182.8 16.2-9.3 2003 1 7.2-1.7 5.00 173.1 26.7 170.8 21.3 2.3 2 4.4-8.9 7.4-2.1 5.00 134.8 10.4 148.7 18.3-13.9 3 7.5-2.1 5.00 183.4 15.3 197.7 14.6-14.3 4 7.8-1.8 5.00 172.0 8.9 181.2 8.3-9.2 5-0.6-12.5 8.3-2.5 5.00 183.4 13.6 186.9 9.4-3.6 6 8.6-3.1 5.00 182.5 14.0 187.7 11.5-5.2 7 8.7-4.0 5.00 202.0 7.6 205.0 5.6-3.0 8 4.0-9.1 8.6-3.7 5.00 193.8 7.0 196.0 6.0-2.2 9 8.3-3.2 5.00 201.9 6.4 207.9 7.3-6.0 10 8.0-2.7 5.00 211.2 9.4 216.6 10.2-5.4 11 4.9-6.1 7.5-2.3 5.00 197.1 9.0 207.4 13.8-10.2 12 7.3-1.9 5.00 200.9 15.8 215.6 17.9-14.7 2004 1 7.3-1.4 5.00 173.5 0.2 172.4 0.9 1.1 2 7.0 1.8 7.2-1.9 5.00 172.8 28.2 198.3 33.3-25.5 3 7.2-2.1 5.00 208.9 13.9 228.2 15.4-19.3 4 7.1-1.5 5.00 205.1 19.3 225.6 24.6-20.5 5 12.1 1.2 7.0-0.9 5.00 212.1 15.7 224.1 19.9-12.0 6 6.9-0.2 5.00 215.7 18.2 228.0 21.5-12.2 7 6.9 0.9 5.00 235.4 16.5 242.6 18.4-7.2 8 6.8 0.8 5.00 234.3 20.9 238.4 21.6-4.1

1555 33 2004 7 162 10.8% 2004 7 162 10.8% 8.0% 2004 7 13.0% 10.8% 2004 7 22.1% 22.0% 14.6% 12.8% 10.4% 10.0% 7.3% 5.7% 5.4% 2004 7 5.4% 3.8% 2.4% 2004 7 1.0% 1. 9 9 BSI 95.5 86.4 2004 6 100 8 BSI 81.2 83.8 8 44 8 CSI 7 89.6 87.0 7 66.2 63.1 2003 10 7 7 123.9 0.3% 98.1 0.8 111.6 0.1% 2.6% 0.2 7 12.8% 7 12.8% 11.8% 2.5% / 0.2% 8 BSI 72 8 BSI 70 72

34 1555 9 BSI 8 73 79 9 7 1.2% / 7 1.2% 8 3.5% 8 80.1 1.6% 3.5% 3.6% 8 17.6 8 197.96 28.8% 180.38 33.2% 17.58 8 10.9 8 10.9 32.3 41.5 18.9 7.7 10.9 8 1,704.9 8 1,704.9 7 24.9 8 0.05% 8 0.05% 0.01 371 23 8 0.42% 2004 8 3,684,678 0.42% 2,480,071 0.79% 8 4.8% 8 115.9 0.9% 4.8% 2001 7 8 69 8 108.7 7.5% 1998 11 0.9% 2004 3 3.7% 0.9% 8 8 15.3% 1998 11 2.0% 2003 2 0.9% 4.9% 8 16.7% 8 2.8% 16.7% 1998 10

1555 35 * ** 2002 1 1 2 2-5-1 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 1993 5.5 4.4 2.8 1.6 4.8 5.00 8.5 12.0 822.4 7.3 838.0 2.5-15.6 1994 8.3 11.1 2.4 2.7 6.2 5.00 8.5 12.5 960.1 16.8 1,023.5 22.1-63.4 1995 8.9 11.9 2.0 4.7 4.4 5.00 9.0 12.5 1,250.6 30.3 1,351.2 32.0-100.6 1996 6.8 8.5 2.0 3.2 5.0 5.00 11.10 1,297.2 3.7 1,503.4 11.3-206.2 1997 5.0 4.7 2.6 3.8 4.4 5.00 15.32 1,361.6 5.0 1,446.2-3.8-84.5 1998-6.7-6.5 6.8 12.2 7.5 5.00 11.11 1,323.1-2.8 932.8-35.5 390.3 1999 10.9 24.3 6.4-2.1 0.8 3.00 8.52 1,436.9 8.6 1,197.5 28.4 239.3 2000 9.3 16.8 4.2 2.0 2.3 3.00 8.41 1,722.7 19.9 1,604.8 34.0 117.9 2001 3.1 0.7 3.8-0.5 4.1 2.83 6.91 1,504.4-12.7 1,411.0-12.1 93.4 2002 30.3 8.0 3.1-0.3 2.8 2.50 6.58 1,624.7 8.0 1,521.3 7.8 103.4 2003 3.1 5.1 3.4 2.2 3.5 2.50 6.24 1,938.2 19.3 1,788.3 17.6 149.9 2002 7 9.4 2.8-0.7 2.1 2.50 6.79 134.0 17.6 130.3 17.3 3.6 8 28.9 7.1 3.0-0.1 2.4 2.50 6.72 139.6 18.6 128.6 13.4 11.0 9 0.1 2.6 0.3 3.1 2.50 6.71 139.0 11.7 129.9 10.9 9.1 10 12.3 2.8 1.0 2.8 2.50 6.77 150.8 24.8 138.2 20.1 12.7 11 31.8 7.8 2.8 1.6 3.5 2.50 6.72 152.0 23.1 139.9 21.3 12.0 12 10.0 3.1 2.3 3.7 2.50 6.58 150.3 26.1 144.5 27.9 5.7 2003 1 3.9 3.5 2.8 3.8 2.50 6.51 143.2 25.8 145.0 28.0-1.8 2 3.7 9.9 3.7 2.8 3.9 2.50 6.39 133.4 21.0 138.6 32.3-5.2 3 5.0 3.6 3.3 4.5 2.50 6.48 153.8 16.1 158.7 32.4-4.9 4 2.1 3.3 1.9 3.7 2.50 6.41 157.2 19.2 147.6 17.5 9.6 5 2.2-0.6 3.2 1.0 3.2 2.50 6.28 146.8 3.5 135.2 6.5 11.5 6 8.6 3.3 1.1 3.0 2.50 6.24 156.6 21.4 134.3 12.5 22.3 7 1.0 3.4 1.6 3.2 2.50 6.20 154.3 15.2 149.0 14.3 5.3 8 2.4 1.6 3.3 1.9 3.0 2.50 6.03 153.8 10.1 135.4 5.3 18.3 9 7.0 3.2 2.1 3.3 2.50 5.97 170.2 22.4 145.3 11.8 24.9 10 7.8 3.3 2.2 3.7 2.50 6.00 189.3 25.5 165.4 19.7 23.9 11 3.9 4.9 3.4 2.4 3.4 2.50 6.13 182.4 20.0 157.6 12.6 24.8 12 10.9 3.6 3.1 3.4 2.50 6.20 197.3 31.3 176.2 21.9 21.1 2004 1 4.7 3.7 3.8 3.4 2.50 6.25 189.9 32.6 161.4 11.4 28.5 2 5.3 16.9 3.9 4.5 3.3 2.50 6.09 191.7 43.7 173.9 25.5 17.7 3 11.6 3.8 4.4 3.1 2.50 6.12 212.2 38.0 190.5 20.0 21.7 4 11.3 3.4 5.5 3.3 2.50 6.02 215.1 36.8 188.2 27.5 26.8 5 5.5 13.5 3.3 6.3 3.3 2.50 5.97 207.5 41.4 179.5 32.8 28.0 6 12.4 3.2 6.8 3.6 2.50 6.06 210.3 34.3 185.4 38.1 24.8 7 12.8 3.5 7.0 4.4 2.50 5.96 210.4 36.3 183.6 23.2 26.8 8 3.5 7.5 4.8 2.25 198.8 29.3 180.4 33.3 18.4

36 1555 2. 1 2003 産 42.2 産 4,100 76% 22.9 5 産 産 7% 2,400 76% 7.8 8 29% 8 8 118 4.8% 29% 8 24.2% 16.9% IC 8 40% 7 51% 8 41.9% MediaTek Inc. Soloman Xilinx 2010 40%

1555 37 * 1 2 2-5-2 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) * * 1993 12.3 2.7 2.3 5.55 740.1 16.6 852.3 18.1-112.2 1994 11.4 2.2 3.1 5.34 968.3 30.8 1,026.7 20.5-58.4 1995 8.0 2.1 1.7 6.49 1,182.7 22.1 1,245.1 21.3-62.4 1996 8.1 1.9 1.3 6.26 1,232.7 4.2 1,285.4 3.2-52.7 1997 8.5 2.1 2.0 6.26 1,249.8 1.4 1,324.8 3.1-75.0 1998-0.9 4.6-0.3 6.96 1,099.1-12.1 1,016.0-23.3 83.1 1999 6.4 3.1 0.1 5.90 1,146.8 4.3 1,110.6 9.3 36.2 2000 9.4 15.4 3.0 1.4 5.80 1,378.1 20.2 1,345.4 21.1 32.6 2001-2.4-11.6 3.3 1.0 5.80 1,217.4-11.7 1,159.9-13.8 57.5 2002 2.2 9.2 4.3-0.4 5.35 1,251.7 2.8 1,164.9 0.4 86.9 2003 1.1 2.3 4.8 0.5 5.31 1,441.3 15.1 1,279.0 9.8 162.3 2002 7 2.7-0.4 5.35 112.8 17.9 106.0 11.0 6.9 8 3.5 1.0 4.3-0.5 5.35 110.0 9.7 102.2 4.2 7.8 9-1.0-0.4 5.35 106.2 10.6 95.8 4.6 10.4 10 0.4-0.2 5.35 113.2 8.1 105.4 5.5 7.8 11 2.8-13.2 4.3 0.2 5.35 114.9 16.4 99.6 10.0 15.3 12 4.4 0.4 5.35 105.0 15.4 96.6 14.4 8.4 2003 1 13.0 0.9 5.35 120.5 25.1 99.4 16.0 21.1 2 1.7-13.4 4.5 0.4 5.33 100.5 25.8 92.0 14.7 8.5 3 2.1 0.8 5.30 119.1 18.9 109.9 14.7 9.2 4 4.5 0.9 5.30 113.5 6.9 102.6 3.9 10.9 5-3.9-8.7 4.6 0.0 5.30 112.6 9.1 97.2 0.7 15.4 6-6.1-0.3 5.30 114.7 10.5 107.0 4.6 7.7 7-6.3 0.3 5.30 119.1 5.5 105.1-0.8 14.0 8 1.7 10.9 5.5 0.5 5.30 116.2 5.6 104.5 2.3 11.7 9 5.9 0.7 5.30 129.4 21.9 109.4 14.2 20.0 10 19.0 0.6 5.30 134.8 19.1 120.0 13.9 14.9 11 4.9 8.2 4.5 0.6 5.30 124.1 8.0 109.0 9.4 15.0 12 0.7 0.8 5.30 137.4 30.8 123.3 27.6 14.1 2004 1 7.2 1.3 5.30 126.0 4.6 116.3 17.0 9.7 2 7.5 29.0 4.5 1.6 5.30 129.1 28.5 114.0 24.0 15.1 3 1.1 1.3 5.30 148.3 24.6 139.7 27.1 8.6 4 22.1 1.3 5.30 143.8 26.7 134.9 31.5 8.8 5 12.5 20.6 4.5 2.0 5.30 144.8 28.6 133.0 36.9 11.8 6 19.2 2.3 5.30 151.3 32.0 133.8 25.1 17.5 7 19.1 1.6 5.30 152.7 28.2 142.5 35.5 10.2 8 5.3 1.7 5.30 151.7 30.6 137.4 31.5 14.3

38 1555 2004 9 13 2 2005 1 ASEAN 208 2005 1 Early Harvest Program 417 2007 0% 5% 30% 60% 2100cc 钜 GDP 6.2% 2004 GDP 6.2% 4.2% 0.3% GNP 5.7% 6.5% GDP 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% GDP GDP 48.2% GDP 1.9

1555 39 * 1 2 2-5-3 % * * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) 1993 2.1 17.7 9.3-0.1 6.9 11.35 14.68 113.8 15.8 176.0 21.2-62.2 1994 4.4 13.1 9.5 8.5 8.4 9.22 15.06 134.8 18.5 213.3 21.2-78.5 1995 4.7 18.5 8.4 5.5 8.0 10.24 14.72 174.5 29.4 265.4 24.4-90.9 1996 5.8 8.4 7.4 9.0 10.0 11.40 14.84 205.4 17.7 324.3 22.2-118.8 1997 5.2 8.8 7.9 0.5 5.1 11.52 16.27 252.3 22.8 359.3 10.8-107.1 1998-0.6-2.1 9.6 11.7 9.7 14.19 16.78 295.0 16.9 296.6-17.5-1.6 1999 3.4 8.6 9.4 5.7 6.6 9.23 11.78 350.3 18.8 307.3 3.6 43.1 2000 4.4 15.4 10.1 1.8 4.4 8.50 12.88 380.8 8.7 313.9 2.2 66.9 2001 3.2 8.4 9.8 2.5 6.1 8.92 11.71 321.5-15.6 330.6 5.3-9.1 2002 4.4-1.7 11.4 3.6 3.1 4.70 9.31 352.1 9.5 354.3 7.2-2.2 2003 4.7 8.1 11.4 5.1 2.9 4.76 9.13 363.0 3.1 375.0 5.8-12.0 2002 7 0.8 3.9 2.6 3.78 9.25 32.2 24.2 31.9 11.0 0.3 8 3.8-7.6 11.2 4.6 2.9 3.78 9.25 30.3 15.7 33.9 17.2-3.6 9 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.77 9.25 31.9 16.8 31.9 15.9 0.0 10 3.0 3.7 2.7 4.22 9.25 30.3 3.1 29.5 15.9 0.9 11 5.8 4.9 10.2 3.8 2.5 4.37 9.25 31.0 18.0 31.4 41.5-0.3 12 1.3 4.8 2.6 4.19 9.25 29.1 10.2 26.7 14.8 2.4 2003 1 12.2 6.2 2.5 4.16 9.25 27.3 3.9 29.2 39.6-1.9 2 4.8 10.1 10.6 4.9 2.9 4.25 9.25 27.9 6.1 28.2 21.4-0.3 3 17.8 4.4 2.7 4.67 9.25 31.3 9.8 34.3 11.6-3.0 4 8.3 3.6 2.7 4.67 9.25 27.3-0.8 31.9-7.6-4.6 5 4.2 11.5 12.2 4.7 2.6 6.15 9.25 28.4-2.6 33.3 13.1-4.9 6 6.7 4.7 3.2 5.30 9.25 30.7 4.7 29.3-3.1 1.4 7 12.4 2.2 3.2 4.50 9.00 30.5-5.5 32.4 1.4-1.9 8 4.8 10.5 12.6 2.8 2.9 4.17 9.00 30.0-1.0 31.0-8.5-1.0 9 3.7 5.1 2.7 4.23 9.00 33.5 5.1 30.5-4.5 3.1 10 3.2 6.7 2.9 4.51 9.00 33.4 10.2 31.5 7.1 1.9 11 5.0-0.8 10.1 7.2 3.1 4.97 9.00 30.9-0.5 32.8 4.5-1.9 12 4.0 8.6 3.0 5.53 9.00 31.8 9.0 30.7 14.9 1.0 2004 1 4.8 4.7 3.4 4.16 9.00 28.4 4.1 31.8 8.9-3.4 2 6.5 5.0 11.0 5.0 3.4 5.16 9.00 30.0 7.6 29.9 6.3 0.0 3-4.9 6.5 3.8 5.44 9.00 33.5 7.1 35.8 4.4-2.3 4 5.3 7.7 4.1 6.62 9.00 29.7 8.9 34.5 8.3-4.8 5 6.2 3.9 13.7 8.3 4.5 6.16 9.00 32.6 14.7 32.8-1.7-0.2 6 8.6 5.1 6.14 9.00 33.1 7.8 34.6 18.1-1.5 7 6.1 6.63 9.00 31.1 2.0 34.2 5.7-3.1 8 6.3 6.44 9.00

40 1555 3 6.3% 2004 6.3% 2004 6.4% 2005 2005 2004 900 90 2004 900 100 2.5 6 30 219 222 225 2005 200 2005 1,000 2003 20 400 2004 6.5% 2004 7.1% 6.5% 5 7.5%

1555 41 * 1 2-5-4 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) ( ) * * 1993 8.3 7.8 2.6 3.3 9.00 11.25 365.5 13.4 450.7 12.3-85.2 1994 9.0 6.4 2.6 5.1 9.50 11.75 446.5 22.1 533.8 18.4-87.3 1995 9.2 9.1 1.7 5.8 10.50 13.75 557.3 24.8 703.8 31.9-146.5 1996 5.9 7.8 1.5 5.9 10.50 13.75 546.7-1.9 708.2 0.6-161.5 1997-1.4-0.6 1.5 5.6 12.50 15.25 567.3 3.8 613.5-13.4-46.2 1998-10.5-9.9 4.4 8.1 7.00 11.50 528.8-6.8 406.4-33.8 122.4 1999 4.4 12.5 4.2 0.3 4.00 8.50 568.0 7.4 475.3 16.9 92.7 2000 4.8 3.2 3.6 1.6 4.00 8.00 678.9 19.5 624.2 31.3 54.7 2001 2.1 1.3 3.3 1.7 3.75 7.50 631.9-6.9 606.7-2.8 25.3 2002 5.4 8.5 2.4 0.6 3.25 6.50 668.9 5.8 634.3 4.6 34.5 2003 6.8 12.3 2.2 1.8 2.96 6.10 784.2 17.2 742.1 17.0 42.0 2002 7 10.2 1.7 0.1 3.50 7.25 55.4 7.7 57.2 11.1-1.9 8 5.8 12.0 1.8 0.3 3.50 7.25 60.7 8.1 58.3 19.4 2.4 9 10.0 2.0 0.4 3.50 7.25 62.2 18.2 53.9 8.3 8.3 10 10.1 2.6 1.4 3.50 6.50 62.6 18.4 57.7 15.1 4.9 11 6.0 12.0 1.5 1.2 3.25 6.50 61.6 16.7 58.0 13.9 3.5 12 11.9 1.4 1.6 3.25 6.50 54.8 10.3 50.6 15.6 4.2 2003 1 15.5 3.4 2.2 3.25 6.50 59.0 25.0 58.7 19.8 0.3 2 6.7 12.8 2.3 1.9 3.25 6.50 59.0 24.7 52.3 23.0 6.7 3 14.0 2.9 1.7 3.25 6.50 63.6 14.4 59.7 15.6 3.9 4 16.9 2.7 1.6 3.25 6.50 58.7 22.8 57.2 13.5 1.5 5 5.8 13.1 2.7 1.9 3.25 6.50 65.3 13.4 59.3 13.2 6.0 6 11.9 2.1 1.7 2.75 6.25 64.7 15.0 57.7 9.7 7.0 7 11.6 1.4 1.8 2.75 5.75 64.2 15.9 64.4 12.6-0.3 8 6.6 5.6 1.5 2.2 2.75 5.75 64.0 5.6 61.9 6.2 2.1 9 11.2 1.8 1.7 2.75 5.75 69.2 11.3 62.7 16.3 6.5 10 12.7 2.5 1.2 2.75 5.75 73.0 16.7 71.7 24.2 1.4 11 7.8 6.2 1.5 1.8 2.75 5.75 71.4 16.0 65.8 13.4 5.6 12 16.1 1.5 1.8 2.75 5.75 72.0 31.5 70.7 39.8 1.3 2004 1 10.7 3.7 1.2 2.75 5.75 69.0 16.9 68.6 17.0 0.3 2 6.6 16.1 2.4 2.2 2.75 5.75 72.2 22.3 67.1 28.2 5.1 3 7.5 2.4 2.3 2.75 5.75 78.5 23.3 81.5 36.6-3.1 4 6.8 2.8 2.5 2.75 5.75 71.0 21.0 74.6 30.4-3.6 5 6.3 6.8 2.6 2.4 2.75 5.75 79.5 21.7 79.4 33.9 0.1 6 9.2 2.0 3.0 2.75 5.75 83.5 29.0 81.8 41.7 1.6 7 9.3 3.1 2.75 5.75 80.1 24.8 79.1 22.8 0.9 8 3.1 3.00 5.75

42 1555 2004 Somkid Jatusripitak 4 2004 1 7 21.1% 27.6% 2004 1 7 2,684.6 21.1% 82.6% 21.1% 6.1% 180.9 8.2% 2004 1 7 2,235.4 1,751 27.6% 1% 26.8% 22.6% 149.2% MSC 1.9 1,000 ICT 50 2004 25 2004 8% 2004 8% 2003 4.6% 7.6% 8% 12.1% 7.4% 1.1% 3.2% 2003 10.7% -1.7% 2003 1.4% 375 414

1555 43 * 1 2 2-5-5 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) * * 1993 9.9 12.8 3.0 3.5 9.00 471.8 16.1 456.9 14.7 14.9 1994 9.2 12.4 2.9 3.7 6.50 587.4 24.5 595.1 30.3-7.8 1995 9.8 13.1 2.8 3.5 7.70 740.6 26.1 777.5 30.6-36.9 1996 10.0 11.0 2.5 3.5 8.89 781.6 5.5 782.9 0.7-1.4 1997 7.3 10.7 2.6 2.6 9.53 786.9 0.7 786.3 0.4 0.6 1998-7.4-7.2 3.2 5.1 10.61 731.5-7.0 582.4-25.9 149.1 1999 6.1 9.1 3.4 2.8 6.79 845.7 15.6 654.5 12.4 191.1 2000 8.5 19.1 3.1 1.6 6.78 982.7 16.2 821.7 25.5 161.0 2001 0.6-4.2 3.7 1.4 6.39 879.7-10.5 737.4-10.3 142.2 2002 4.1 4.7 3.5 1.8 6.39 931.8 5.9 796.3 8.0 135.5 2003 5.3 9.2 3.6 1.1 6.13 1,049.7 12.7 836.2 5.0 213.5 2002 7 7.6 2.1 6.39 81.4 14.9 70.7 19.1 10.7 8 5.9 6.5 3.2 2.1 6.39 82.9 13.9 70.6 20.9 12.3 9 9.2 2.1 6.39 82.1 14.2 69.5 18.8 12.6 10 7.9 2.1 6.39 83.9 10.8 71.0 10.8 12.9 11-4.9 6.2 3.2 1.6 6.39 81.5 9.3 66.8 4.2 14.7 12 8.2 1.7 6.39 75.2 8.8 63.1 11.1 12.1 2003 1 5.6 1.7 6.39 83.3 15.8 64.7 6.7 18.6 2 4.6 9.7 3.8 1.6 6.39 71.4 13.0 56.1 4.6 15.4 3 8.9 0.7 6.39 87.3 8.5 68.1 1.1 19.2 4 6.2 1.0 6.39 84.8 11.2 67.0-5.5 17.8 5 4.6 11.2 4.0 1.0 6.00 84.2 10.3 65.9-1.2 18.2 6 9.2 0.8 6.00 85.6 11.8 65.9 0.8 19.7 7 8.5 1.0 6.00 87.1 6.9 73.3 3.6 13.8 8 5.3 8.1 3.4 1.0 6.00 88.1 6.3 68.0-3.6 20.1 9 8.9 1.1 6.00 90.7 10.5 72.3 4.0 18.4 10 11.3 1.3 6.00 97.9 16.6 80.1 12.8 17.8 11 19.1 11.8 3.2 1.1 6.00 87.5 7.4 70.0 4.9 17.4 12 14.7 1.2 6.00 101.9 35.5 84.7 34.3 17.2 2004 1 18.4 1.0 6.00 92.7 11.4 75.7 17.0 17.1 2 7.6 11.0 3.8 0.9 6.00 85.1 19.2 69.7 24.4 15.4 3 13.7 1.0 6.00 105.9 21.3 87.9 29.1 18.1 4 14.5 1.0 6.00 104.4 23.1 88.3 31.7 16.1 5 8.0 12.5 1.2 5.98 101.2 20.3 83.3 26.3 18.0 6 12.9 1.3 5.98 104.9 22.6 91.3 38.5 13.6 7 9.9 1.3 5.98 112.2 28.8 92.2 25.8 20.0 8 1.4 5.98

44 1555 9.42% 2004 8 14 544 7.2 5 2004 7 10.8 28.9% 2004 7 10.8 28.9% 6 4.9% 7 9.3 14.6% 6 11.2% 7 3.9 9.0% 8.2% 2004 7 19.1 4.7% 58.7% 7 3.5 6.1 5 National Development Planning Agency, BAPPENAS 1 5 10 5 20 10 20 21.7 580 640 2000

1555 45 * 1 2 2-5-6 % * * (+) GDP (-) ( ) * * 1993 7.3 11.1 2.8 368.2 8.4 283.3 3.8 85.0 1994 7.5 17.6 4.4 14.25 400.5 8.8 319.8 12.9 80.7 1995 8.2 11.0 7.2 8.6 14.51 454.2 13.4 406.3 27.0 47.9 1996 7.8 6.6 4.9 6.5 15.08 498.1 9.7 429.3 5.7 68.9 1997 4.7 13.2 4.7 6.2 14.63 534.4 7.3 416.8-2.9 117.6 1998-13.1-34.3 5.5 58.0 43.00 488.5-8.6 273.4-34.4 215.1 1999 0.8 1.9 6.4 20.7 13.08 486.7-0.4 240.0-12.2 246.6 2000 4.9 3.6 6.1 3.8 13.22 621.2 27.7 335.1 39.6 286.1 2001 3.8-1.1 8.1 11.5 17.74 563.2-9.3 309.6-7.6 253.6 2002 4.3-7.1 9.1 11.9 16.18 571.6 1.5 312.9 1.1 258.7 2003 4.5 4.5 9.5 6.8 11.21 610.6 6.8 325.5 4.0 285.1 2002 7-5.2 10.0 15.69 50.0 2.8 26.5 7.9 23.6 8 5.4-6.0 10.6 15.35 49.3-3.8 28.2 20.2 21.0 9-3.8 10.5 15.12 51.4 18.2 28.6 34.1 22.8 10-4.8 10.3 14.86 53.3 17.9 31.0 49.3 22.2 11 4.9-3.1 10.5 14.42 44.4 13.9 29.6 39.6 14.8 12 0.2 10.0 14.33 48.6 15.3 29.5 41.2 19.2 2003 1 2.5 8.7 14.30 50.0 22.3 27.4 31.2 22.6 2 5.5 11.0 7.6 14.09 49.8 18.7 28.2 29.2 21.6 3 9.0 7.2 13.86 51.6 13.3 28.2 19.2 23.4 4-3.3 7.6 13.58 50.6 5.3 26.2 10.0 24.4 5 4.8-1.4 7.2 13.29 49.6 5.0 25.8 3.1 23.8 6 4.5 7.0 12.95 53.0 3.9 24.5 0.3 28.5 7 2.3 6.3 11.33 52.7 5.4 26.1-1.4 26.6 8 3.7 2.3 6.5 9.97 50.2 2.0 27.0-4.5 23.3 9 5.8 6.3 8.86 50.6-1.7 27.4-4.2 23.2 10 1.5 6.5 8.39 50.6-5.1 28.0-9.8 22.6 11 4.1-12.0 5.5 7.18 49.6 11.8 28.0-5.3 21.6 12 41.6 5.2 6.76 52.4 7.7 28.9-2.0 23.5 2004 1 16.7 4.8 6.44 50.4 0.9 33.4 22.0 17.0 2 5.0 11.9 4.6 6.11 49.1-1.5 33.9 20.3 15.2 3 9.3 5.1 6.11 50.9-1.5 34.7 23.1 16.2 4 17.1 5.9 6.11 52.1 2.9 35.5 35.4 16.6 5 4.3 6.5 7.25 55.0 10.8 34.3 33.1 20.7 6 6.8 7.25 56.9 7.5 35.4 44.9 21.5 7 7.2 7.25 56.8 7.7 41.1 57.7 15.6 8 6.7

46 1555 7,000 1,000 30 2008 2005 2008 2008 2004 4.5 5.0 2004 8 4.5 5.0 2004 2004 8 7 0.09% 3.78% 8 6.5% 7.0% 8 1 9,368

1555 47 1.9 3-1 112 1.6 1.3 110 1.0 0.7 108 0.4 0.1 106 6/11 6/18 6/25 7/2 7/9 7/16 7/23 7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 8 20 9 24 2004 8 20 9 24 1 109.32 110.39 109.00 110.53 1 0.5491 0.5555 0.5491 0.5639 1 0.8114 0.8131 0.8114 0.8316 8 27 9 3 9 21 0.25 7 9% 9 10 8 0.1% 3.4% 2004 2%

48 1555 7 9 15 9 9 16 8 20 3.96% 6 30 8 11 9 21 1.75% 9 8 2.25% 9 24 9 21 1.5% 1.75% 2004 2004 2004 4.3% 9 8 2.25% 17 8 9 9 24 5.2% 7.6%

1555 49 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 % 3-2 3-1 6/4 6/11 6/18 6/25 7/2 7/9 7/16 7/23 7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9 2.0% 4.75% 9 9 6.25% 8 25 1.5% 2004 33% 9.0% 8 ECB 9 2 2.0% ECB 2004 2% ECB 5% 9 9 6.25% 10 6.5% 7 8 25 1.5% 24 2.70 9 24 407.85 8 20 410.55 9 407.85 2.70 8 20 49.4 8 23

50 1555 420 3-3 415 410 405 400 395 390 8/16 8/19 8/22 8/25 8/28 8/31 9/3 9/6 9/9 9/12 9/15 9/18 9/21 9/24 8 31 9 1 407.65 400 9 8 5 6 2004 8 7 2004 8 OPEC Brent WTI Fateh 40.27 42.84 44.86 38.44 / 7 (+) +11% +11.8% +10.2% +10.9% 4-1 Oil Market Intelligence, OMI OPEC OPEC 100 150 OPEC 7 2,550 8 1 2,600 OPEC

1555 51 10 7 2,732 6 58 OPEC OPEC 8 2004 8 CRB DJ-AIG Reuters 277.08 143.55 1,538.75 7 + - +3.5% -1.7% +1.5% 8 8 7 2 400 4 4 2.8% 911 400 410 415 8 25 LME 2,450 76.61 1 145 10.08 LME 2 45 9 86 50% 40

52 1555 4-1 % OPEC * 1995 16.86 17.01 18.42 16.10 1996 20.29 20.70 22.20 18.58 1997 18.68 19.06 18.46 18.10 1998 12.28 12.71 14.36 12.15 1999 17.47 17.91 19.30 17.24 2000 27.60 27.60 30.37 26.25 2001 23.60 24.41 25.93 22.74 2002 24.40 24.94 26.05 23.78 2003 28.10 28.85 31.05 26.79 8 25.99 26.63 28.19 25.38 9 27.38 28.38 29.67 26.88 10 27.32 27.53 28.87 26.28 11 24.29 24.15 26.30 23.17 12 29.39 28.15 29.01 25.51 2003 1 30.34 31.24 32.85 28.00 2 31.54 32.70 35.75 29.97 3 29.78 30.30 33.19 27.38 4 25.34 24.96 28.17 23.41 5 25.60 25.73 28.10 24.36 6 26.74 27.62 30.47 25.53 7 26.43 28.48 30.64 26.74 8 28.63 29.78 31.59 27.64 9 26.32 27.05 28.46 25.37 10 28.54 29.58 30.32 27.20 11 28.45 28.84 31.00 27.63 2004 12 29.44 29.90 32.08 28.21 1 30.33 31.17 34.20 28.92 2 29.56 30.86 34.50 28.51 3 32.23 33.75 36.71 30.69 4 32.05 33.33 36.66 31.36 5 36.27 37.76 40.24 34.58 6 35.35 35.15 38.03 33.58 7 36.29 38.31 40.69 34.67 8 40.27 42.84 44.86 38.44 2004 8 % +11.0 +11.8 +10.2 +10.9 2004 8 % +53.0 +58.4 +57.6 +51.5 * Saharan blend Minas Bonny light Dubai UAE, Tai Juana light Isthmus and Saudi Arabian Light Energy Intelligence Group, Oil Market Intelligence, March 2004 45 / 4-1 40 35 OPEC 30 25 20 / 08/2002 12/2002 04/2003 08/2003 12/2003 04/2004 08/2004

1555 53 4-2 / 2004 2003 2004 8 7 6 8 OECD 48.6 48.1 48.3 47.7 48.0 48.7 47.4 OECD 34.0 33.3 33.3 32.1 33.1 31.6 30.8 82.6 81.4 81.6 79.7 81.1 80.2 78.2 OPEC 30.2 29.7 29.1 27.0 28.5 27.0 26.5 OPEC3.8 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.7 OPEC 47.6 47.9 48.0 46.3 47.8 46.8 46.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 83.4 83.2 82.7 78.5 81.7 79.1 78.1 0.8 1.8 1.1-1.3 0.6-1.2 0.0 OECD 2,571 2,575 2,544 2,557 4,793 4,785 4,752 4,721 4-1 4-3 / 2004 7 6 5 a b 1 OPEC 9,350 9,200 8,800 10,200 8,451 3,950 3,840 3,900 3,900 3,817 2,680 2,680 2,528 2,680 2,992 2,500 2,400 2,350 2,450 2,269 2,500 2,415 2,400 2,450 2,142 2,075 2,100 2,000 2,200 2,087 1,560 1,550 1,550 1,560 1,392 955 945 955 960 1,348 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 830 2,000 1,913 2,021 na na 800 800 780 800 674 610 600 600 615 na OPEC 30,230 29,693 29,134 29,065 26,000 OPEC 3,847 3,790 3,767 OPEC 34,077 33,483 32,901 2 OPEC 5,184 5,343 5,421 9,145 9,099 9,030 3,385 3,363 3,436 3,463 3,493 3,506 2,603 2,964 2,942 1,762 1,804 1,828-21,016-21,450-21,590 OPEC 4,526 4,616 4,573 47,553 47,910 47,965 a. 30 3 b. 2004 4 1 c. na 4-1

54 1555 5-1 CRB 1967=100 DJ-AIG 1991=100 Reuters 9/18/1931=100 1997 229.14 111.98 1,752.40 1998 191.22 77.80 1,572.40 1999 205.14 92.27 1,353.90 2000 227.83 114.61 1,399.10 2001 190.61 89.03 1,178.20 2002 234.52 110.27 1,368.80 2003 1 248.45 118.64 1,431.68 2 247.25 122.52 1,437.64 3 232.15 113.17 1,425.30 4 232.53 112.36 1,438.40 5 235.55 118.82 1,389.50 6 233.78 115.79 1,430.86 7 234.36 116.39 1,469.81 8 243.86 120.89 1,501.85 9 243.66 120.89 1,568.23 10 247.58 126.57 1,630.86 11 249.60 126.08 1,630.73 12 255.29 135.26 1,664.51 2004 1 261.80 137.61 1,712.51 2 275.26 146.44 1,738.29 3 283.77 150.06 1,746.94 4 272.54 148.04 1,701.56 5 272.95 150.04 1,683.44 6 265.94 144.03 1,560.52 7 267.78 145.97 1,516.11 8 277.08 143.55 1,538.75 % +3.5-1.7 +1.5 +13.6 +18.7 +2.5 CRB= DJ-AIG= Rueters= 1.04 200 1,440 6.8% 1,820 2003 30 1. 2004 9 USDA 2004/05 5,778 2003/04 581 2004/05 2004/05 3.00 3.50 /

1555 55 5-2 * 2002/03 202.06 566.93 107.83 112.68 601.59 108.38 167.41 21.15 43.71 2.30 3.25 30.64 23.14 13.37 180.92 523.23 105.53 109.43 570.95 85.24 154.03 30.84 163.04 14.6 66.87 135.99 45.25 27.23 1.14 12.3 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 8.05 10.06 0.29 3.38 6.1 9.15 3.14 6.73 16.2 0.38 4.06 8.18 9.4 5.73 25 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 96.57 143.51 54.36 11.38 210.57 5.17 78.70 0.9 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.5 105.2 1.72 60.38 7 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.44 0.5 6.65 5.61 11.7 18.71 0.3 29.67 0.38 5.98 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.4 18.38 1.19 1.44 9 1.65 0 9.3 1.63 9.06 0.33 1.57 23 71.81 0.03 0.6 74.29 4.85 15.7 16.64 96.96 4.1 23.91 73.66 25.82 18.23 6.48 50.55 1.05 16 39.32 12.62 6.13 4.7 12.6 0.03 1.8 5.67 6.24 5.42 2.96 20.56 0.81 4 14.5 6.57 3.26 2003/04 167.41 550.77 102.98 97.7 585.81 107.51 132.36 13.37 63.59 1.97 5.53 32.52 31.56 14.86 153.03 487.18 101.01 92.15 553.29 75.96 117.5 27.23 168.49 6.29 59.37 127.59 51.1 23.31 1.53 13.5 0.01 0.08 5.28 7.5 2.26 3.14 24.92 0.08 3 5.7 17.5 4.94 5.73 23.5 0.2 3.43 7.56 15.8 6.06 25 16.83 106.57 6 52.87 109.05 10.3 10.05 78.70 148.46 51.93 9.82 210.37 6.86 61.86 0.66 5.85 5.3 0.2 9.9 1.4 0.51 60.38 86.49 3.75 6 104.5 2.82 43.29 7 6.65 16.83 8.09 1.05 25.56 1 5.01 5.98 16.34 15.6 0.3 30.33 0.26 7.34 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.4 18.9 0.19 1.58 1.57 0 9.65 1.27 9.05 0.32 1.86 15.7 65.1 0.02 0.6 68.42 5.5 6.9 18.23 61.41 7.14 16.68 65.03 9.03 12.73 6.13 34.1 1 12.5 35.5 3.5 2.23 5.42 11.5 0.02 2 6.1 5.2 5.64 3.26 3.6 3.5 0.23 9.16 0.07 1.13 * USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Septemper 10, 2004.

56 1555 5-2 * 2004/05 9 132.3 608.64 102.63 105.7 598.61 105.77 142.32 9 14.86 57.78 1.63 5.44 32.69 25.86 15.73 9 117.5 552.83 100.85 101.36 567.95 79.91 126.61 9 23.31 193.14 5.29 6598 134.53 56.5 30.7 9 2.26 14.5 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.5 2.79 9 4.94 23.5 0.08 2.9 5.6 17 5.91 9 6.06 24.5 0.2 4 8.2 16 6.56 25 9 10.05 129.69 5 58 114.3 15 15.44 9 61.86 151.42 59.4 8.51 210.51 3.18 58.99 9 0.51 5 5.5 0.4 10.2 0.1 0.71 9 43.29 90 8 4 102 1 38.29 7 9 5.01 17.62 10.25 1.5 26.49 0.7 5.69 9 7.34 16.48 15.3 0.3 31.03 0.26 7.83 9 1.58 19 1 0.4 19.3 0.05 2.23 9 1.86 0 9.75 1.38 9.4 0.32 1.89 9 6.9 72 0.02 0.5 69.92 1.5 7.5 9 12.73 84.56 4.34 20.01 71.8 13.26 16.57 9 2.53 42 1.5 13.5 37.5 5 5.03 9 5.64 10 0.02 1.8 6.5 4.5 4.65 9 1.13 17.5 0.5 2.5 12.5 3.5 3.13 * 5-2 2004/05 8 197 2003/04 5,984 8 197 5-2 2. 9 2004/05 197 96 0.5 2.00~2.40 / 2004/05 40 5-3

1555 57 2002/03 5-3 * 148.03 600.98 76.51 434.89 626.8 78.23 122.21 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.3 200.75 40.33 27.6 107.48 373.21 76.14 293.54 426.05 37.89 94.6 2.27 25.18 0.44 6.5 12.52 12.3 3.07 0.33 15.5 0 2.5 4 11.2 0.63 1.94 9.68 0.44 4 8.52 1.1 2.44 11.25 89.33 48.92 93.6 133.68 2.52 13.31 0.25 6 4.85 9.1 10.9 0 0.2 25 2.66 49.08 4.33 38.38 49.24 2 4.83 1.39 0 16.87 12.3 16.8 0 1.46 3.4 19.28 5.27 9.5 24.7 0.01 3.24 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.2 18.5 0.51 1.04 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.78 0 1.25 0.72 44.5 0.78 34 37.5 4.63 3.87 1.06 9 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 84.79 121.3 0.03 96 125.9 15.24 64.97 1.76 17.68 0.54 14.27 16.74 0.74 1.53 1.56 8.54 0.19 6.43 7.91 0.85 1.53 0.08 1.55 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.01 0.11 2003/04 122.21 618.06 77.09 447.74 646.31 74.22 93.96 27.6 256.9 0.33 147.33 212.74 47.88 24.22 94.6 361.16 76.76 300.41 433.57 26.34 69.74 3.07 21.45 0.61 6.7 12.9 9.65 2.58 0.63 12.75 0.01 2.6 4.2 8.65 0.54 2.44 8.7 0.6 4.1 8.7 1 2.04 13.31 81.0 49.96 91.6 131.8 1.18 12.32 0.2 6.15 4 8.4 10.2 0 0.15 25 4.83 39 5.5 35 45.8 0.4 3.12 1.46 0 16.8 12.4 16.9 0 1.36 3.24 21 5.8 11 26.2 0.02 3.82 1.04 15.32 3.45 12.44 17.79 0.76 1.26 1.25 0.07 9.5 7.4 9.67 0 1.15 3.87 41.5 0.55 35 38.8 4 3.12 1.11 9.6 1.8 9 11.5 0.3 0.71 64.97 115.83 0.05 98 128.6 8 44.25 2.5 14.27 0.83 13.98 16.46 0.28 0.86 1.53 11.54 0.63 9.54 11.03 1.53 1.14 0.11 2.1 0.5 2.15 2.55 0 0.16 * 5-2

58 1555 5-3 * 2004/05 9 93.96 664.46 75.45 458.69 670.51 79.26 87.9 9 24.22 278.42 0.38 148.6 218.96 53.34 30.72 9 69.74 386.04 75.07 310.09 451.56 25.92 57.19 9 2.58 24.8 0.51 6.8 13 12 2.89 9 0.54 15.5 0.01 2.7 4.3 11 0.75 9 2.04 9.3 0.5 4.1 8.7 1 2.14 9 12.32 93.69 47.61 96.95 138.1 1.11 14.4 9 0.15 6.2 4.5 8.8 10.7 0 0.15 25 9 3.12 51.28 2.5 40.1 51.5 0.5 4.9 9 1.36 0 16.8 12.3 16.8 0 1.36 9 3.82 20.3 6.3 11.2 26.5 0.01 3.91 9 1.26 15.64 3.71 13.2 18.69 0.6 1.32 9 1.15 0.07 9.1 6.8 9.12 0 1.2 9 3.12 43.5 0.4 36.2 40 4 2.52 9 0.71 8.7 2.5 8.3 11.2 0.3 0.61 9 44.25 120 0.2 100 131.6 4 28.85 9 0.86 21.12 0.48 15.33 17.81 1.7 2.95 9 1.14 11.17 0.76 9.28 10.67 1.53 0.88 9 0.16 2 0.6 2.2 2.6 0 0.16 * 5-2 3. 9 516 2004/05 81 2,722 2004/05 2004/05 0.5 1.0 5.35 6.25 / 23.5~26.5 / 0.5 10 170 200 / 9 2004/05 180 3.8 5-4

1555 59 5-4 * 2002/03 32.71 196.81 62.71 164.85 190.42 61.66 40.16 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.97 47.52 28.42 4.85 27.05 121.8 62.58 120.88 142.9 33.24 35.3 21.86 92 1.7 51.9 55.92 31.65 27.99 10.16 35.5 0.38 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.47 11.6 52 1.32 27.17 29.76 19.73 15.42 4.3 18.79 51.3 53.54 67.63 0.32 6.44 2.1 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 25 1.08 0.89 16.82 16.26 17.84 0.03 0.93 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 0.1 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 2003/04 40.16 188.52 54.71 165.43 190.57 55.46 37.36 4.85 65.8 0.17 41.23 43.72 24.22 2.87 35.3 123.72 54.54 123.66 146.71 31.38 34.49 27.99 90.6 0.87 56.3 60.91 29.16 29.39 12.47 34 0.37 25.02 26.6 7 13.24 15.42 52.6 0.5 29.93 32.85 19.7 15.98 6.44 18.13 44.59 50.67 64.88 0.37 3.92 4.47 16 16.9 25.72 34.97 0.3 2.1 25 0.93 0.73 15.59 14.92 16.38 0.03 0.84 0.7 0.23 4.9 3.85 5.14 0 0.65 0.05 0.13 4 4.1 4.13 0 0.04 2004/05 9 37.36 222.99 63.5 179.83 208.72 63.58 51.54 9 2.87 77.18 0.16 43.95 47.84 27.22 5.16 9 34.49 145.8 63.33 135.88 160.88 36.37 46.38 9 29.39 110 0.95 62.48 67.57 33.89 38.89 9 13.24 39 0.35 26 27.77 7.97 16.85 9 15.98 66 0.6 34.66 38.02 22.97 21.59 9 3.92 19.84 52.01 54.12 69.44 0.26 6.07 9 2.1 17.5 23 28.3 38.2 0.2 4.2 25 9 0.84 0.84 16.16 15.5 16.96 0.03 0.85 9 0.65 0.28 5 3.89 5.26 0 0.67 9 0.04 0.11 4.6 4.6 4.7 0 0.04 * 5-2

60 1555 5-5 480 2002/03 47.31 88.28 30.22 98.6 30.35 0.25 36.61 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.9 0.17 5.38 39.86 71.07 30.16 91.33 18.46 0.08 31.22 11.11 24.24 1.44 14.11 14.22 0.01 8.45 3.26 7.8 0.85 9.4 0.23 0.03 2.26 1.93 6.88 3/ 1.82 5.34 0 1.65 1.48 4.12 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 2.9 2.72 0.52 1.13 3.2-0.08 1.89 2.21 1.7 3/ 0.13 2.66-0.1 1.23 26.75 43.78 23.84 70.55 3.17 0.06 20.58 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.6 0.49-0.1 2.88 5.13 10.6 1.22 13.3 0.05 0 3.59 0.72 0.21 2.3 2.1 0.07 0.03 1.03 12.61 22.6 3.13 29.9 0.75 0 7.68 1.74 2.15 3.92 4.83 1.44 0.06 1.49 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0 0 0.22 1.45 4.18 2.26 6.3 0.31 0 1.29 2.46 0.16 8.79 8.87 0.06 0.08 2.40 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.4 0.61 0.07 1.94 2 0 0.03 0.6 2003/04 36.61 94.33 34.24 98.85 32.97-0.07 33.42 5.38 18.26 0.05 6.49 13.8-0.01 3.5 31.22 76.08 34.19 92.36 19.17 0.03 29.92 8.45 24.45 2.78 14.42 13.95-0.04 7.35 2.26 7.75 1.8 9.6 0.2 0.03 2.03 1.65 6.74 0.01 1.87 4.99 0 1.54 1.54 4.43 3/ 0.2 4.49 0 1.28 1.89 3.07 0.55 1.14 2.96-0.08 1.48 1.23 1.5 3/ 0.08 2.16-0.1 0.59 20.58 48.42 26.76 71.26 3.89 0.06 20.54 2.88 5.8 0.55 3.75 0.96-0.1 4.61 3.59 13.75 0.9 13.45 0.55 0 4.24 1.03 0.36 1.82 2 0.13 0.03 1.06 7.68 22.3 8.83 32.4 0.17 0 6.24 1.49 1.96 3.12 3.9 1.64 0.06 0.96 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.5 0 0 0.2 1.29 4.1 2.35 6 0.36 0 1.38 2.4 0.15 7.72 8.26 0.08 0.08 1.86 0.4 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 0.6 0.07 1.7 1.95 0.01 0.03 0.38 3/ 5,000 5-2

1555 61 2004/05 5-5 480 9 33.42 107.25 31.78 100.85 31.52 0.04 9 3.5 20.9 0.04 6.1 12.2 0.04 9 29.92 86.35 31.74 94.75 19.32 0.01 5-2 4. 9 2004/05 4.1 2003/04 2004/05 216.9 1 5. 9 2004/05 71.2 2,090 2004/05 2004/05 5-5 6. LME 2004 8 2,842.86 / 7 2,808.4 / 12.27% 7 88,450 8 109,775

62 1555 1 * 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.Statistischeo Bundesamt 7.UK National Statistics 8.France INSEE * * 1995 6.42 2.50 1.88 1.73 2.79 1.82 8.92 1996 6.10 3.70 3.54 0.76 2.55 1.07 6.75 1997 6.68 4.50 1.81 1.41 3.51 1.86 5.01 1998 4.57 4.18-1.19 1.96 3.68 3.53-6.69 1999 5.42 4.45 0.16 1.85 2.41 3.19 10.89 2000 5.86 3.66 2.79 3.00 3.08 4.31 9.33 2001-2.18 0.75 0.43 0.60 2.11 2.08 3.10 2002 3.59 1.86-0.32 0.21 1.64 1.11 30.27 2003 3.31 3.04 2.48-0.21 2.22 0.53 3.07 3-4.42-1.28-3.23 0.70 1.89 2.24 2.13 4-1.58 2.01-2.62 0.54 1.88 0.60 3.51 2002 1 0.94 4.48-2.38-0.26 1.37 0.74 29.21 2 3.67 2.43 5.08 0.22 1.75 1.33 31.00 3 5.21 2.60 4.06 0.38 2.26 1.08 28.92 4 4.52 0.74 0.73 0.49 2.31 1.31 31.77 2003 1 3.51 1.93-0.14 0.09 1.89 0.76 3.68 2-0.20 4.11 4.35-0.60 2.16-0.09 2.19 3 4.01 7.41 2.24-0.33 2.17 0.37 2.44 4 5.70 4.19 7.62 0.00 2.65 1.07 3.92 2004 1 6.68 4.49 6.37 0.80 3.42 1.71 5.28 2 7.67 2.79 1.25 1.49 3.69 2.00 5.47