: 3 :,,,,,,, :, 2005, , 26,, ( ) ,,?,,?,,, OECD, , 20 90,,,,,, , 3178,, 25 %, 40 %? 2004 :,

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斡豫冉
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1 : 3 :,,,,,,, :, 2005, , 26,, ( ) ,,?,,?,,, OECD, , 20 90,,,,,, , 3178,, 25 %, 40 %? 2004 :,, GDP,2005, WTO,2001 GDP, 418 % 413 % 318 % 317 %,2005,,,,? :,, 11 : 1997, 2002,, 10 %, 25 %, GDP 2 % 5 % 4 3,, :100010, gov. cn

2 IMF ( ),,,,,,,,,, 20 70, IMF, , , 20 %, 8000, ,, ;,,,,,, 21 : (1) 1994,,,, 2002,, , ( ) : (2), ( ), 5

3 :, , ,2004, 613,, ,, , 2 2 ( : ) :, : (3), ,, ,, (4),,,,, 2005, ( ) , %,,,,1998,,, : ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,, 6

4 NDF (NDF),,NDF ;,, 2450, 2 : Π 8127, NDF 4000, Π 7187 Π ( = ) 21,,, NDF, , 2004,1 1600,, , 1, 100,, 315 3,, 415 %,, 41, : = - - 3, ,, , 30 65,,,,, ( ) ,,,,, 21,,,,,,, 7

5 : 3 ( ) :, ,,,,, 12,, 31,,, , 3103 %, %,,,, 2004,,, 4 ( ) 41,,,,,2,1,,,,,,,,, 51,,,,,,, 8

6 2006 2,,,,,,, ( ) ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 21,,,,,,,, 013 % ;,,,, 18,,?,,,,,,,, ( ) 9

7 :, ,, 90,,,,, (, ) (, ), ( ), 11, 10 %,,,,,,1995,, , , 21,,,, , 1015 % 2711 %, 419 % 1412 % 31,,, 1 4,3 1, 20,,30,, 50,,,,, , 1985,, 41,, ,,, 1Π4, ; ( 2000 ), ; ; ( ),, 10

8 2006 2, %, ; %, ; , 50 60, 10 %,, ;70 80, 4 %,, ;, 1 %,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) 11 :,, 60 %, 40 % 50 %,,,,, 21,,, 1998, M2 6 GDP,, 20 70, 3,,,,,,, 20, (, ), (, ), 80,, 90, 1995,,, LTCM IT, ,,,,,!,,,,,,,,, 11

9 :,,, ( ), :,,,,,,,, ;, ,,,,1987 M2 GDP ( ),, ,,,,M2 GDP ( ), 2002,, 2004,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 80,,,,,,, 11,? , 4168, 7106,,,,,, , 1040,, 650, 70 % 80 %,,,,,, 12 21

10 (1) :,,,,, ( ),,,, :,,,,, G20,, :,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ; ( ) ;,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,

11 : 2007,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (2) :,,,,,,,,, G20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 14

12 I,2005 :,,,2000 :,, C,2005 :,,,2005 :, Patrick Artus, 2005 :,,IXIS flash 163,2005 : ( ), 2 3 4,2005 :,,,2005 :,,,2005 :,,,2004 :, On China Foreign Exchange Reform in the Unbalanced International Monetary System Xia Bin and Chen Daofu (Development Research Center of State Council) Abstract :The over expectation of RMB appreciation is basically due to monetary reasons. But actually the appreciation pressure on the real economy level is not so significant. RMB will remain relatively stable while moving in both ways and sustaining small appreciation1 The floating range will be enlarged when it s right time to do that1 Meanwhile, the influence of exchange rate on the fundamental infrastructure of international trade has been weakened and we can never rely on exchange rate to adjust the trade unbalance automatically. China and the United States should strengthen the cooperation to jointly adjust economic structure for both countries. For China, we need to further highlight the domestic2demand2oriented strategy, and together with the effort of other Asian countries in economy and currency, gradually ease over dependence on the US economy. Key Words :RMB Exchange ; World Trade Pattern ; International Monetary System JEL Classification :F310,F420,N200 ( : ) ( : ) 15

: : : :1996,??,,,,,,,, :,,,,, Goldsmith (1969) 35,, Shaw(1973) Gurley Shaw(1960), Demirg c2 Kunt Levin (2001) 150 (1992)

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