2007 5 No.5 2007 ( 100 ) Journal of Fujian Institute of Financial Administrators Serial No.100 18
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12 2 δ ( r r ln ln t = PIt PI t) = SQRT[ ( t k 12) /11] t r µ r 1 k = 1 t PI t µ 12 δ ( r t ) 20
GDP=10.38+0.19CAP+ 1t (32.24) (5.31) GDP=9.14+0.16STY+ 2t (9.14) (13.45) GDP=9.58-0.11VOL+ 3t (24.21) (17.19) 1t 2t 3t 1t 2t 3t 21
1t 2t 3t 1t 2t 3t GDP=1.41+0.29GDP t-1+0.58gdp t-2 +0.26STY t-1+1.04sty t-2 + 4t (2.34) (3.13) (6.35) (-0.65) (-0.95) STY=0.048+0.01GDPt-1-0.01GDP t-2 +0.59STYt-1-0.04STY t-2 + 5t (2.54) (0.35) (-1.73) (5.32) (-0.38) GDP=1.06+0.3GDP t-1+0.58gdpt-2-0.83volt-1-1.21vol t-2 + 6t (1.35) (3.01) (5.79) (-1.11) (1.17) VOL=0.01-0.01GDPt-1-0.38GDP t-2 +0.67VOL t-1+0.14vol t-2 + 7t (1.86) (3.75) (2.37) (5.55) (1.2) 22
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Yt = AKt δ It = Kt 1 (1 δ ) Kt φ I = φs t t Yt+ 1 Kt+ 1 ( It δ Kt) It AIt Aφ St gt+ 1 = 1= 1= = δ = δ = δ = Aφs δ Yt Kt Kt Kt Yt Yt s = S/ Y φ φ s 24
SAV=0.84+0.02GDP-0.07CAP-0.31STY-0.23VOL+ (14.34) (4.25) (-10.99) (1.68) (-4.61) 2 2 R =0.91 R =0.91 8t M1=10.67+1.12GDP-0.18CAP-0.32STY-0.21VOL+ (7.51) (3.32) (-12.57) (2.34) (-7.05) 2 2 R =0.93 R =0.93 M2=3.2+1.38GDP-0.14CAP-0.27STY-0.19VOL+ (7.66) (2.65) (-13.12) (3.64) (-6.8) 2 2 R =0.93 R =0.93 10t 9t 25
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On Effective Supervision of Enterprise Bond Market Zhang Bai AbstractEffective supervision on enterprise bond market is aimed to guarantee its healthy development. Therefore, supervision reform first goes to reshape supervision ideas, shifting from financing-biased to protecting investor s interest, promoting its marketization and legalization. These two are complementary for liberalization and further regulation, of importance to raise supervision efficiency, an improvement over former supervision mechanism fitting to economic development and healthy development for bond market. Secondly, to coordinate visible hand--government and invisible hand--market supervision, to improve supervision modes by government supervision body and non-governmental bodies (public intermediary institutions, self-discipline organs). Key wordsenterprises Bond MarketSupervision IdeasSupervision Modes The Contribution of Stock Market to Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis on Stock Market in China Zhu Meng-nanYan Jia-jia AbstractThis paper first reviews the theories and empirical analysis on the relationship between stock market and economic growth. Then, through the empirical analysis on stock market in China, it is proved that there is no causality between scale index and growth index; liquidity index has positively correlated with growth index, despite of the statistical insignificance; and volatility index has negative relationship with growth index. The paper also concludes that the growth of stock market in scale has little effect on saving, but the change in liquidity and volatility play more important roles. And the stock market shows certain substitution effect on monetary demand. Lastly, based on the reasons causing the above phenomena, the paper gives relevant policy advice. Key wordsstock MarketEconomic GrowAnalysing Means 33