20 90 1998 ~ 2009 U Li 1998 Xu 2010 Qian Weingast 1996 Qian Roland 1998 GDP 2007 401120 cgcqu@ 126. com lishu575@ hotmail. com 2010QNJJ08 - XZQN24 2 120
1 2007 2007 2008 30 World Bank 1997 2 World Bank 2000 Li 2001 2008 Dong Torgler2010 2010a 2010b 3 Huang 2002 GDP 1 2 3 Blanchard Shleifer 2000 capture 2007 26 3 5 2 121
20 90 1 2 1996 1999 2009 1998 ~ 2009 3 1942 20 90 1990 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 http / /www. gov. cn / jrzg /2006-08 /06 /content_355833. htm 3 2007 2 122
1994 1999 1 2006 8 6 2007 2007 2008 U 2010a 1978 ~ 2005 1 1996 1999 2009 2009 2009 2007 2009 1 http / /cpc. people. com. cn /GB /64162 /71380 /71382 / 71480 /4854009. html 2 123
2008 130 Choi Thum 2003 job rotation 1 Campante 2009 2 U Ferraz Finan 2009 2007 1 Choi Thum 2003 2 Campante 2009 2 124
2007 2007 2008 1 1 2008 15 7 2 125
Huang 2002 2007 2006 10 1 15 2 10 5 2005 Li Zhou 2005 Opper Brehm 2007 Wu Ma 2009 2010b 1998 2007 1 10 2 15 http / /www. gov. cn /jrzg /2006-08 / 06 /content_355808. htm 2 126
1 2 U 1 1 2 127
1 1998 ~ 2009 2 M 1993 1 1998 ~ 2009 2 4 1 2 1998 ~ 2009 1998 2 128
1 1998 ~ 2009 31 1 1998 ~ 2009 30 1 9 8 4 7 31 206 146 70. 87% 1 2007 2008 1999 2002 2 1998 ~ 2009 1 2 129
1 1 ~ 5 1 6 ~ 12 2 2 2 3 35 2007 2008 4 ~ 6 1 15 1 1 ~ 14 5 ~ 7 1 2 3 Knack 2006 Goel Nelson 2007 2009 1 1991 1994 10 2010 4 2 1958 1993 6 1998 5 2007 3 3 Transparency International Corruption Perception Index Bribery Perception Index Business International Political Risk Services Inc. International Country Risk Guide World Economic Forum 2 130
3 CPI 1996 ~ 2010 2008 2010a b 1 CPI 0 ~ 10 / CPI Levitt 1998 3 1992 ~ 2010 Corruption Perception Index CPI 3 2003 ~ 2005 3 CPI 2 131
2009 corruption it = β 0 + β 1 dt it + β 2 du it + β 3 dt it du it + ΠX it + ε it 1 i t i t ε corruption / dt 0 1 β 1 du 1 0 β 2 dt du β 3 X tenure education age education 1 2 3 4 5 corruption - 1 GDP pgdp pgdp corruption - 1 contagious effect 1 5 1998 ~ 2007 1 Goel Nelson 2007 1995 ~ 2004 Attila 2008 1996 ~ 2002 120 2 132
1998 2003 2008 3 1998 ~ 2002 5 2003 ~ 2007 5 2008 ~ 2009 2 2003 ~ 2007 2003 2003 2003 ~ 2007 3 2003 ~ 2007 2003 ~ 2007 3 18 1 4 2 OLS corruption - 1 1 1 dt du 10% 1 2 dt du White Woodridge OLS PCSE 1 3 4 dt du 1% 5. 5 1 tenure 3 U 1 2 3 18 4 2 133
14 1998 ~ 2009 2 14 U 1 OLS PCSE 1 2 3 4 dt - 0. 088-0. 085-0. 064-0. 057 0. 019 0. 020 0. 028 0. 030 du 0. 024 0. 024 0. 041 0. 042 0. 018 0. 018 0. 006 0. 008 dt du - 0. 039-0. 034-0. 056-0. 055 0. 024 0. 024 0. 008 0. 010 corruption - 1 0. 869 0. 860 0. 864 0. 855 0. 019 0. 019 0. 048 0. 048 tenure - 0. 015-0. 014 0. 007 0. 007 tenure 2 0. 001 0. 001 0. 001 0. 001 education - 0. 020-0. 013 0. 009 0. 007 age - 0. 041-0. 047 0. 029 0. 023 age 2 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 pgdp - 0. 003-0. 010 0. 011 0. 014 0. 509 1. 811 0. 501 1. 949 0. 069 0. 812 0. 178 0. 668 R 2 0. 82 0. 83 0. 98 0. 98 White test P 0. 00 0. 05 Woodridge test P 0. 00 0. 00 540 540 540 540 1% 5% 10% 2 134
2 education 1 2011 3 U U 4 GDP 2 2 1 dt du - 0. 05 2007 2 2 dt du 1 http / /www. chinadaily. com. cn /micro - reading /dzh /2011-05 - 30 /content_2757408. html 2 2005 Li Zhou 2005 Wu Ma 2009 1998 2006 2 135
2 1 2 3 4 5 dt - 0. 070-0. 069-0. 070-0. 087-0. 111 0. 029 0. 024 0. 030 0. 031 0. 034 du 0. 043 0. 033 0. 031 0. 043-0. 079 0. 011 0. 011 0. 025 0. 024 0. 031 dt du - 0. 051-0. 034-0. 049-0. 028 0. 072 0. 014 0. 015 0. 019 0. 031 0. 028 corruption - 1 0. 865 0. 875 0. 850 0. 842 0. 828 0. 047 0. 047 0. 049 0. 049 0. 051 tenure - 0. 022-0. 021-0. 016-0. 015-0. 017 0. 008 0. 011 0. 007 0. 007 0. 006 tenure 2 0. 002 0. 001 0. 001 0. 001 0. 001 0. 001 0. 001 0. 001 0. 001 0. 001 education - 0. 008-0. 013-0. 014-0. 012-0. 013 0. 007 0. 009 0. 007 0. 007 0. 007 age - 0. 037-0. 072-0. 045-0. 040-0. 047 0. 024 0. 030 0. 023 0. 022 0. 023 age 2 0. 000 0. 001 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 pgdp - 0. 011-0. 023-0. 014-0. 009-0. 033 0. 021 0. 023 0. 025 0. 013 0. 023 1. 649 2. 762 1. 991 1. 825 2. 306 0. 661 0. 889 0. 743 0. 674 0. 779 R 2 0. 98 0. 98 0. 98 0. 98 0. 98 450 306 540 540 540 dt du 2 3 dt du 1 1 12 5 41. 7% 2 136
2 4 dt du 2 5 dt du 4 1998 ~ 2009 75 71 5 1 1 1 2002 2003 1998 1999 2002 2 3 1999 2002 2003 2007 8 2 137
4 2010a M 1993 Huang 2002 1 1 2 138
3 1 2 3 dt - 0. 057-0. 058-0. 040 1 0. 030 0. 027 0. 048 dt du du 0. 042 0. 073 0. 017 centre 0. 008 0. 014 0. 031 dt du dt du - 0. 051-0. 088-0. 056 centre 0. 015 0. 018 0. 034 dt du centre - 0. 008 3 1 0. 021 dt du centre corruption - 1 0. 855 0. 837 0. 859 0. 048 0. 046 0. 050 tenure - 0. 014-0. 014-0. 013 0. 007 0. 015 0. 009 tenure 2 0. 001 0. 000 0. 001 0. 001 0. 002 0. 001 education - 0. 012-0. 020-0. 006 0. 007 0. 012 0. 015 age - 0. 047-0. 083 0. 015 0. 023 0. 031 0. 055 age 2 0. 000 0. 001 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000 pgdp - 0. 010-0. 008-0. 019 0. 014 0. 013 0. 017 1. 959 2. 991 0. 226 0. 671 0. 894 1. 596 R 2 0. 98 0. 98 0. 98 540 270 270 1 1 2 2 1 3 4 1998 ~ 2001 2001 ~ 2002 1994 ~ 2000 2003 ~ 2006 1979 ~ 1982 2006 2 139
3 2 ~ 3 dt du 8. 8 5. 6 2 140
U 1998 ~ 2009 GDP U 1996 3 2008 3 2010a 2 2010b 10 2011 3 2008 10 2007 1 2009 4 1999 1993 M 1 2009 4 2009 6 12 2008 3 2008 2 2009 7 6 2007 9 2010a NO. 2010001 2010b 2 2007 11 2007 2005 1 1 2007 7 2009 1 Attila G. Is Corruption Contagious An Econometric Analysis. NUPI Working Paper No. 7422008. 2 141
Blanchard O. and Shleifer A. Federalism with and without Political Centralization China versus Russia. NBER Working Paper No. 76162000. Choi J. P. and Thum M. The Dynamics of Corruption with the Ratchet Effect. Journal of Public Economics200387 4 pp. 427-443. Campante F. R. Chor D and Do A. Instability and the Incentives for Corruption. Economics and Politics 200921 1 pp. 42-92. Dong B. and Torgler B. The Consequences of Corruption Evidence from China. Fondazione Eni Enrico Matteiworking papers No. 4622010. Ferraz C. and Finan F. Electoral Accountability and Corruption Evidence from the Audits of Local Governments. NBER Working Paper No. 149372009. Goel R. K. and Nelson M. Are Corruption Acts Contagious Evidence from the United States. Journal of Policy Modeling200729pp. 839-850. Huang Y. Managing Chinese Bureaucrats An Institutional Economics Perspective. Political Studies2002 50pp. 61-79. Knack S. Measuring Corruption in Eastern Europe and Central Asia A Critique of the Cross - country Indicators. World Bank policy research working paper No. 39682006. Li D. D. Changing Incentives of the Chinese Bureaucracy. American Economic Review199888 2 pp. 393-397. Li H. and Zhou L. Political Turnover and Economic Performance The Incentive Role of Personnel Control in China. Journal of Public Economics 200589pp. 1743-1762. Li W. Corruption During the Economic Transition in China. Dardon School of BusinessUniversity of Virginia working paper2001. Levitt S. D. Why Do Increased Arrest Rates Appear to Reduce Crime DeterrenceIncapacitationor Masurement Error Economic Inquiry199836 3 pp. 353-372. Opper S. and Brehm S. Networks versus Performance Political Leadership Promotion in China. Department of EconomicsLund Universityworking paper2007. Qian Y. and Weingast B. China s Transition to Markets Market - preserving FederalismChinese Style. Journal of Policy Reform19961 2 pp. 145-185. Qian Y. and Roland G. Federalism and Soft - budget Constraint. American Economic Review199888 5 pp. 1143-1162. Wu J. and Ma L. Does Government Performance Really Matter An Event History Analysis of the Promotion of Provincial Leaders in China. Paper prepared for the 10th Public Management Research Association Conference John Glenn School of Public AffairsOhio State UniversityColumbusOhio2009. Xu C. The Institutional Foundations of China s Reforms and Development. CEPR discussion paper No. DP76542010. World Bank. World Development Report The State in a Changing World. Washington DC World Bank 1997. World Bank. The Anti - corruption in Transition A Contribution to the Policy Debate. WashingtonDC World Bank2000. 2011 8 2 142