2015 9 INSURANCE STUDIES No. 9 2015 430072 F840. 61 DOI 10. 13497 /j. cnki. is. 2015. 09. 010 A 1004-3306 2015 09-0117 - 11 + 1997 26 DC Leimer 1994 1 Hurd and Shoven 1985 2 Feldstein and Samwick 2001 DC 3 Lindset 2004 DC 2013T60748 117
4 Rodrigo Acuna R. and Augusto Iglesias P. 2001 1981 ~ 2000 DC 5 Mukul G. Asher 1999 6 2009 7 2010 8 2009 9 2010 10 2014 11 2014 12 1 1 2 1997 26 1997 3 1997 2 15 3 4 4 5 5 1 2 3 4 5 118 1997 116 1997 26 1997 26 1997 26 1997 7 16
2005 38 1. a b b - a M R 2005 38 P P = 12M R r m b N N = m P j = 1 1 + r j - 1 = Μ = Ν 1 2 3 R 12 = 1 j m = 1 1 + r j - 1 2. 2005 38 2005 ~ 2015 11 f j - 1 12M 1 + f j P j = R j = 1 2 m N' N' = m j = 1 P j 1 + r j - 1 = M = N' 5 6 7 R 12 = j m = 1 1 + f ( 1 + r) j - 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1. 119
1997 a 20 1978 104 60 50 55 b 40 ~ 70 2005 38 b R 1 1 40 233 48 204 56 164 64 109 41 230 49 199 57 158 65 101 42 226 50 195 58 152 66 93 43 223 51 190 59 145 67 84 44 220 52 185 60 139 68 75 45 216 53 180 61 132 69 65 46 212 54 175 62 125 70 56 47 208 55 170 63 117 2005 38 2. 2005 ~ 2015 11 2004 647 2015 2291 1 11 2. 54 12. 18% 2 11 10% 10% f = 10% 2004 ~ 2015 2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 14. 1 14. 6 14. 4 18. 7 17. 5 11. 7 13. 5 14. 3 12. 1 10. 1 8. 2 16. 9 13. 1 18. 9 11. 4 11. 2 10. 9 13. 9 10. 0 10. 0 10. 0 2012 12 2013 ~ 2015 1 2004 ~ 2012 2012 12 2015 2013 ~ 2015 120
3. 2010 m 3 2010 3 40 39. 72 43. 56 51 29. 53 32. 99 62 20. 12 22. 89 41 38. 77 42. 59 52 28. 64 32. 05 63 19. 32 22. 01 42 37. 82 41. 61 53 27. 75 31. 11 64 18. 52 21. 14 43 36. 88 40. 64 54 26. 87 30. 17 65 17. 75 20. 29 44 35. 94 39. 67 55 26. 00 29. 25 66 17. 00 19. 45 45 35. 00 38. 71 56 25. 13 28. 32 67 16. 24 18. 61 46 34. 08 37. 75 57 24. 27 27. 40 68 15. 50 17. 79 47 33. 15 36. 79 58 23. 42 26. 48 69 14. 78 16. 97 48 32. 23 35. 83 59 22. 58 25. 57 70 14. 09 16. 18 49 31. 33 34. 88 60 21. 75 24. 67 50 30. 43 33. 93 61 20. 93 23. 78 2010 1. 4 8 excel 4 4 4 8 60 50 55 1 60 7. 48% 17. 95% 50 55 5. 49% 15. 93% 6. 34% 16. 83% m = R /12 60 71. 58 60 + 139 /12 m = 11. 58 55 69. 17 55 + 170 /12 m = 14. 17 50 66. 25 50 + 195 /12 m = 16. 25 1 50 55 50 121
4 8 5 4 40 4. 48 4. 69 14. 85 15. 11 56 6. 12 6. 60 16. 52 17. 12 41 4. 51 4. 74 14. 88 15. 15 57 6. 39 6. 90 16. 80 17. 43 42 4. 57 4. 82 14. 95 15. 23 58 6. 69 7. 22 17. 12 17. 77 43 4. 61 4. 86 14. 98 15. 28 59 7. 11 7. 65 17. 56 18. 24 44 4. 64 4. 91 15. 01 15. 33 60 7. 48 8. 05 17. 95 18. 67 45 4. 71 4. 99 15. 07 15. 41 61 8. 00 8. 59 18. 51 19. 25 46 4. 78 5. 07 15. 15 15. 50 62 8. 60 9. 20 19. 14 19. 92 47 4. 85 5. 16 15. 22 15. 59 63 9. 42 10. 04 20. 03 20. 82 48 4. 92 5. 25 15. 29 15. 69 64 10. 39 11. 01 21. 07 21. 88 49 5. 04 5. 39 15. 42 15. 83 65 11. 55 12. 17 22. 33 23. 15 50 5. 12 5. 49 15. 49 15. 93 66 12. 94 13. 57 23. 85 24. 68 51 5. 26 5. 64 15. 63 16. 09 67 14. 93 15. 53 26. 03 26. 84 52 5. 40 5. 80 15. 78 16. 26 68 17. 48 18. 05 28. 83 29. 62 53 5. 55 5. 97 15. 93 16. 44 69 21. 34 21. 85 33. 11 33. 74 54 5. 70 6. 14 16. 09 16. 63 70 26. 25 26. 68 38. 53 39. 15 55 5. 87 6. 34 16. 26 16. 83 5 = R /12 m 60 11. 58 11. 58 1. 46 10. 00 55 14. 17 14. 17 0. 98 10. 00 50 16. 25 16. 25 0. 75 10. 00 5 = m = R /12 60 50 55 1% = m = R /12 60 50 55 10% 4 5 = 122
r = f 2. 2005 ~ 2014 62005 5% 13 6 2005 ~ 2014 2005. 1. 1 2. 25 3. 24 2008. 12. 23 2. 25 3. 33 2006. 8. 9 2. 52 3. 69 2010. 10. 20 2. 5 3. 85 2007. 3. 18 2. 79 3. 96 2010. 12. 25 2. 75 4. 15 2007. 5. 19 3. 06 4. 41 2011. 2. 9 3. 00 4. 50 2007. 7. 21 3. 33 4. 68 2011. 4. 6 3. 25 4. 75 2007. 8. 22 3. 60 4. 95 2011. 7. 7 3. 50 5. 00 2007. 9. 15 3. 87 5. 22 2012. 6. 8 3. 25 4. 65 2007. 12. 21 4. 14 5. 40 2012. 7. 6 3. 00 4. 25 2008. 10. 9 3. 87 5. 13 2014. 11. 22 2. 75 4. 00 2008. 10. 30 3. 60 4. 77 2014. 12. 31 2. 75 4. 00 2008. 11. 27 2. 52 3. 60 3. 1997 116 7 4 2% ~ 4. 5% 2005 11 12 5 7 = 123
7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4. 5 4. 68 4. 15 4. 1 3. 75 2. 52 4. 14 2. 25 2. 75 4. 5 4. 14 2. 25 2. 75 2. 75 2. 75 2. 75 3. 5 3. 0 3. 5 3. 5 3. 5 3. 21 3. 92 2. 25 2. 3 3. 28 3. 26 3. 14 3. 39 5. 74 3. 73 3. 73 4. 25 4. 25 4. 25 7 1 6 30 1 1 12 31 4. 2004 2006 8 20% 2014 6. 7% 16. 67% 6. 25% 10 14 8 2007 ~ 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4. 1-1. 83 7. 78 3. 41-0. 78 5. 68 3. 67 3. 15 2007 ~ 2013 5. 2003 124
15 2001 ~ 2013 8. 36% 9 60 9 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1. 73 2. 59 3. 56 2. 61 4. 16 29. 01 43. 19-6. 79 16. 1 4. 23 0. 85 7. 01 6. 29 11. 43 8. 36 1. 16 2. 125
40 55 ~ 60 3. 11 17 4. 2015 8 17 2015 48 1 Dean R. Lemimer Cohort-Specific Measures of Lifetime Net Social Security Transfers Social Security Administration Office of Research and Statistics Working Paper February 1994 No. 59. 2 Michael D. Hurd and John B. Shoven The Distributional Impact of Social Security NBER Working Paper Series 1985. 3 Feldstein Martin and Andrew Samwick Potential Paths of Social Security Reform NBER Working Paper 2001. 4 Lindset S. Relative guarantees The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory 2004 Vol. 29 PP. 187-209. 126
5 Rodrigo Acuna R. and Augusto Iglesias P. Chile s Pension Reform after 20 Years World Bank Social Protection Discussion Paper Series Dec. 2001 No. 0129. 6 Mukul G. Asher The Pension System in Singapore World Bank Social Protection Discussion Paper Series August 1999 No. 9919. 7. J. 2009 4 25-27. 8. J. 2010 4 59-66. 9. J. 2009 11 75-81. 10. J. 2010 24 33-38. 11. J. 2014 7 85-91. 12. J. 2014 11 32-33. 13. J. 2001 6 13-20. 14. J. 2015 1 47. 15. J. 2005 44-48. 16. 2013 M. 2014 30-39. 17. J. 2013 4 5-10. Calculation and Analysis of the Internal Rate of Return of Individual Account for Urban Workers Basic Old-age Insurance XUE Huiyuan SONG Jun Center for Social Security Studies of Wuhan University Hubei Wuhan 430072 Abstract According to Decisions on Improving the Basic Old-age Insurance for China s Urban Enterprise Employees issued by the State Council in 2005 this paper built an actuarial model to calculate the internal rate of return IRR of workers individual account. Then on the basis of reasonable assumptions of relevant parameters this paper estimated the IRR of personal account for urban workers basic old-age insurance. Comparing the IRR of personal account with the bank deposit rate the individual account billing rate the return of enterprise annuity and national security fund it concluded that the current individual account had a higher IRR. Based on above studies offered following suggestions design the rate of return of personal account scientifically restrict early retirement and give priory to extending women s retirement age establish the normal adjustment mechanism of basic pension achieve an actuarial balance of personal account through the measures of raising divisor coefficient strengthening the investment operations of pension fund and implementing annuitization reform. Key words basic old-age insurance for urban workers personal account internal rateof return actuarial balance 127