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1 櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒 Vol. 36 No. 6 November Population Research 櫒

2 櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ % UN % % % 2075

3 % 36% 15 ~ % % % % ~ % 17. 5% % % 5. 66% % % ~

4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ % % % 15% ~ 17% ~ % % % % 50% ~ 52% 60% %

6 31 Figure 1 1 Comparing Age Structure before and after Raising Retirement Age 61 2010 12.

1 18 69 13 17 50 33 16 52 32 17 59 24 16 57 27 2 2 Figure 2 Working - age Population before and

5 6 31 Figure 1 1 Comparing Age Structure before and after Raising Retirement Age % % % % 30% ~ 33% % % Figure 2 Working - age Population before and after Raising Retirement Age ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

6 % ~ % ~ 80 potential support ratio Table 1 1 Dependency Ratios before and after Raising Retirement Age % % % 51% ~

7 % 60 4 ~ ~ ~ = ~ ~ ~ ~ 65

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9 ~ / ~ % % % % % 50 ~ % 55 ~ % ~ ~ Table 1 1 Age Distribution of the Retirees and Percentage of the Retirees in the Total Population by Age Group % N = 3901 % N = ~ ~ χ % / % 0. 45% % % 2 1

36 36 1 /4 1 /3 33. 54% 56. 34% 4 15. 22 4. 79 13. 35 28. 98 Table 2 2 Distribution of the Respondents by Occupation and Administrative Post % % 1. 94 2. 43 26. 26 11. 04 0. 45 3. 37 34. 38 29. 59 41.

10 /4 1 / % % Table 2 2 Distribution of the Respondents by Occupation and Administrative Post % % χ ~ % % % 9. 76% Figure 1 Actual Retirement Age of Retirees by Education Level 50 / % % %

6 37 Figure 2 2 Actual Retirement Age of Retirees by Occupation and Administrative Post 3 5. 75 5. 36 5. 61 5.

11 6 37 Figure 2 2 Actual Retirement Age of Retirees by Occupation and Administrative Post Figure 3 Cumulative Percentage of Retirees by Retirement Age and Sex 1 / % % % % % Figure 4 Cumulative Percentage of Retirees by Length of Service and Sex % % 1

12 % % % % 1 Table Pension of Retirees by Occupation and Administrative Post and by Education Yuan % / / % % % 30 ~ 35 85% 20 ~ 30 80%

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14 Table 1 1 Change of Basic Old - age Insurance by Year ~ ~ http / /www. mohrss. gov. cn /page. do pa = a7c ad9ea22032f % 2006 ~ ~ % = / * = % 8% / * = =

15 ~ ~ Table ~ 5 Influence on Amount and Balance of Pensions by Raising Retirement Age by 1 ~ 5 Years = + = + 2 1% = = = %

16 % W 1 + r n g 1 + r n g n r 8% W 1 + g n n Table ~ 5 / Fundamental Pensions after Paying for 15 Years and Raising Retirement Age by 1 ~ 5 Years yuan /month % % 4 Table 4 4 Monthly Pensions and Accumulative Total in Personal Account with Different Time Period of Payment 1 ~ % 1 / / 4 6 / 5 7 = % %

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18 /References 1.. http / /forum. home. news. cn /thread / /1. html Jin Chengse The Table of Mandatory Age for Retirement of Selected Countries. http / /forum. home. news. cn / thread / /1. html June http / /esa. un. org /unpd /wpp /index. htm Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of UN World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision. http / /esa. un. org /unpd /wpp /index. htm June http / /www. stats. gov. cn /tjsj /ndsj /2011 /indexch. htm National Bureau of Statistics China Statistics Yearbook Beijing China Statistics Press http / /www. stats. gov. cn /tjsj /ndsj /2011 /indexch. htm June http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = The Sate Council The Interim Procedures for Resettling the Old Weak Sick and Disabled Cadres and The Interim Procedures for Retirement of Workers. http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = General Office of the State Council The Announcement for Further Improving Basic Living Security for Laid - off Workers and Pension Payment for Retired Workers of the State - owned Enterprises. http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = Ministry of Labor and Social Security The Announcement for Curbing and Correcting the Deregulation Behaviors of Processing Early Retirement. http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = Peng Xizhe. Social Policy and Gender Equality with the Analysis of China's Pension System as an Example. Collection of Women s Studies

19 6 45 Chen Weimin and Li Ying The Impacts of the Retirement Age on the Sexual Difference in Old - age Pension among China s Urban Employees. Collection of Women s Studies Gao Qingbo and Deng Han On Women's Statutory Pensionable Age in China. Collection of Women s Studies / Retirement Age Research Team Why Do Women and Men Agree or Disagree with Retirement at Same Age Collection of Women s Studies Liu Qingrui and Miao Hongjun Study on Delaying Retirement Age in the Context of Population Ageing in China. Population Journal Li Zhen Social Society Theory. Beijing Chinese Labour Social Security Publishing House Cui Hongwei Study on Retirement Age of China in the Context of Population Ageing. PhD Thesis of Renmin University of China 57. On Raising Retirement Age Abstract China is rapidly ageing. Working - age population will be declining and demand and cost for old - age support increasing. Raising retirement age has been proposed to be an approach to addressing the ageing challenge being a central theme of the recent hot debate over China s pension gap. While raising retirement age will not change anything with regard to China s population size and structure it will expand labour force population. If retirement age were to increase from 60 to 65 in the next 30 years working - age population would have an annual increment of 3 million people thus helping relieve the ageing pressure and prolong the demographic dividend. Raising retirement age could enlarge national pension fund stocking which helps ease the government s payment pressure and reduce future pension risk but it could also reduce individual rate of return. Since retirement age is different for males and females retirement policy needs to be adjusted to equalize the retirement age between the two sexes. However retirement policy adjustment must be preceded with great caution in a best manner and at a best time. Keywords Population Ageing Raising Retirement Age Pension Retirement Policy Authors Yao Yuan is Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Yuan Xin is Professor Economics College Nankai University Tan Lin is Professor Institute of Women s Studies All - China Women s Federation and Jiang Xiangqun is Professor Institute of Gerontology Renmin University of China

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the

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