1996-2015 F121. 3 A 1001-8263 2018 08-0035 - 11 DOI 10. 15937 /j. cnki. issn 1001-8263. 2018. 08. 005 100836 100836 1000091 2012 2010 2008 2013 35
σ - 17 1672 2015 1894 2015 Fisher 1946 - Clark 1940 2015 Chenery 1986 2016 1998-2013 1953 1958 2017 1953 2008 20 60 GIS 20 / 1996-2015 80 1986 1988 1988 1989 2010 2013 2018 8 1989 Gravity Center Model OverlayAnalysis 1989 Global Moran s I 1990 1999 Moore 1999 2013 Gravity Center Model Ebdon 1991 Shaw & Wheeler 1994 31 / 2006 1996-2015 36
/ 1 E I 2 = n n2-3n + 3 S 1 - ns 2 + 3S 2 o - D n 2 - n S 1-2nS 2 + 6S 2 o / n - 1 n - 2 n - 3 S 2 5 o x it - x珋 t 4 D = S / 1 = 1 x it - x珋 t 2 2 2 i n = 1i n = 1 w i j + W j i 2 S 2 = / GDP w i j + w j t 2 6 x j = M ij * X ij / M ij 1 y j = M ij * Y ij / 2 Moore M ij G x j y j j j = 1996 1997 2015 i / 2 3 31 M i 3 / GDP 3 X i Y i i / M + W i t W i t + 1 = 7 / W 2 i t 槡 n W 2 i t + 1 槡 / M + Moore W i t t i / W i t + 1 t + 1 i Moran s I Anselin 1991 / / Moran s I θ j n = 1w i j x it - x珋 t x jt - x珋 t Cosθ t = M + t θ t = arccosm + t 8 I t = x it - x珋 t 2 t θ t n j = 1w i j n i jw i j x it - x珋 t x jt - x珋 t = S 2 o S 2 o = x it - 珋 x t 2 n j n = 1w i j x珋 t = 1 n i n x it = 1 3 w i j / i j n / S o z I z I = I - E I 4 槡 V I E I = - 1 / n - 1 V I = E I 2 - E I 2 E I 2 Moore Moore 1978 Moore 2002 / W i = 3 2 1 M t j = W i q i j 9 q i GDP t 1996-2015 j / j = 1 2 3 31 M t j 37
1996-2015 31 GDP 1996-2015 GDP 1997-2016 2018 8 1 GDP 96-15 31 20 = 620 9525. 6 5293. 85 11589. 33 64. 76 72812. 55 96-15 31 20 = 620 975. 01 703. 97 941. 23 27. 15 4979. 08 96-15 31 20 = 620 4617. 13 2481. 87 5761. 79 11. 39 32613. 54 96-15 31 20 = 620 3933. 43 1999. 56 5239. 26 26. 22 36853. 47 Matlab R2010b Moran I GDP 4 1996-2015 / / GDP GDP Moore / GDP GDP 1 1 1996-2015 Arcgis10. 2 A 1996-2015 GDP B 1996-2015 GDP 1996-2015 1A GDP 38
1B 1996-1996 - 2015 2004 2005-2015 / 1996-2004 1996 1996-2001 / 2001-2004 2015 / 16 1996-2004 / 1996-2015 / 4 / 2015 4 / 2005-2015 2 1996 52. 55% 40. 49% 43. 01% 42. 27% 40. 49% 5 / GDP 40% 2015 79. 65% 52. 15% 53. 18% / 2010 50. 73% 67. 76% 50. 61% 53. 26% 53. 80% 8 / 2011-2013 50% 38. 83% 39. 09% 2013 2012 39. 10% 3 40% / 1996-2015 15% / 9 2 2 1996-2015 / 1997-2016 39
20 / 3 3 1996-2015 / Moore / GDP 2 /3 2004-2005 2008-2009 2014-2015 2004-2005 2004-2018 8 2005 2004-2005 / Moore / 3 1996-2015 / Moore 4 1996-2015 / Moore 2008-2009 2004-2005 / / 4 1996-2015 / Moore 1996-2015 / Moore 5 / Moore Moore 36. 42 29. 45 26. 64 25. 67 1996-2015 / 25. 18 5 / 2 1996-2015 20 / Moore 14. 11 13. 10 11. 65 11. 05 10. 82 40
2 1996-2015 / Moore / Moore 36. 42 29. 45 26. 64 25. 67 25. 18 25. 17 22. 63 21. 55 21. 17 21. 07 20. 70 / Moore 20. 53 18. 82 18. 57 18. 54 18. 13 17. 87 17. 14 17. 04 16. 53 16. 29 16. 10 / Moore 15. 37 15. 01 14. 78 14. 68 14. 11 13. 10 11. 65 11. 05 10. 82 Moore / 2005 5 1996-2015 / / M 5 / 1996 0. 89 2015 0. 96 5 1996-2015 / 1996-2015 / / M 2. 0 < M < 2. 44 2. 4 7 / M < 2. 0 / 1996 20 / - 2015 6 20 1996-2008 1. 9 2009 2004 2008 41
2018 8 / 1996-2005 20 6 1996-2015 Moran s I < 0 Moran s I 1996-2015 / GDP Moran s I = 0 Moran s I Moran s I > Moran s I 3 0 3 1996-2015 GDP Moran s I GDP Moran s I Z p Moran s I Z p Moran s I Z p Moran s I Z p 1996 0. 0217 0. 7054 0. 4806 R 0. 1207 2. 0131 0. 0441 C ** 0. 1264 2. 0945 0. 0362 C ** 0. 1085 1. 8500 0. 0643 C * 1997 0. 0276 0. 7781 0. 4365 R 0. 1216 2. 0208 0. 0433 C ** 0. 1311 2. 1560 0. 0311 C ** 0. 1139 1. 9199 0. 0549 C * 1998 0. 0103 0. 5583 0. 5766 R 0. 1128 1. 9086 0. 0563 C * 0. 1466 2. 3523 0. 0187 C ** 0. 1153 1. 9370 0. 0527 C * 1999 0. 0049 0. 4903 0. 6239 R 0. 1093 1. 8648 0. 0622 C * 0. 1530 2. 4315 0. 0150 C ** 0. 1179 1. 9719 0. 0486 C ** 2000 0. 0078 0. 5284 0. 5972 R 0. 0950 1. 6781 0. 0933 C * 0. 1499 2. 3988 0. 0165 C ** 0. 1121 1. 8997 0. 0575 C * 2001-0. 0064 0. 3462 0. 7292 R 0. 1001 1. 7471 0. 0806 C * 0. 1413 2. 2865 0. 0222 C ** 0. 1124 1. 9047 0. 0568 C * 2002-0. 0139 0. 2495 0. 8029 R 0. 1023 1. 7784 0. 0753 C * 0. 1454 2. 3382 0. 0194 C ** 0. 1153 1. 9436 0. 0519 C * 2003-0. 0471-0. 1764 0. 8600 R 0. 1014 1. 7741 0. 0761 C * 0. 1584 2. 5013 0. 0124 C ** 0. 1163 1. 9597 0. 0500 C * 2004-0. 0519-0. 2383 0. 8117 R 0. 1006 1. 7681 0. 0770 C * 0. 1643 2. 5731 0. 0101 C ** 0. 1171 1. 9714 0. 0487 C ** 2005-0. 0635-0. 3876 0. 6983 R 0. 0889 1. 6235 0. 1045 R 0. 1051 1. 8567 0. 0633 C * 0. 0980 1. 7414 0. 0816 C * 2006-0. 0686-0. 4541 0. 6498 R 0. 0818 1. 5298 0. 1261 R 0. 1038 1. 8354 0. 0665 C * 0. 0932 1. 6800 0. 0929 C * 2007-0. 0708-0. 4808 0. 6307 R 0. 0783 1. 4816 0. 1384 R 0. 1056 1. 8569 0. 0633 C * 0. 0925 1. 6688 0. 0952 C * 2008-0. 0575-0. 3109 0. 7559 R 0. 0735 1. 4134 0. 1576 R 0. 1083 1. 8879 0. 0590 C * 0. 0913 1. 6501 0. 0989 C * 2009-0. 0641-0. 3967 0. 6976 R 0. 0730 1. 4090 0. 1588 R 0. 1080 1. 8884 0. 0590 C * 0. 0947 1. 6975 0. 0896 C * 2010-0. 0676-0. 4407 0. 6595 R 0. 0766 1. 4518 0. 1466 R 0. 1146 1. 9688 0. 0490 C ** 0. 0985 1. 7454 0. 0809 C * 2011-0. 0653-0. 4093 0. 6823 R 0. 0739 1. 4104 0. 1584 R 0. 1160 1. 9864 0. 0470 C ** 0. 0979 1. 7351 0. 0827 C * 2012-0. 0722-0. 4980 0. 6185 R 0. 0754 1. 4271 0. 1536 R 0. 1128 1. 9413 0. 0522 C * 0. 0972 1. 7234 0. 0848 C * 2013-0. 0807-0. 6073 0. 5436 R 0. 0775 1. 4544 0. 1458 R 0. 1082 1. 8828 0. 0597 C * 0. 0972 1. 7255 0. 0844 C * 2014-0. 0727-0. 5045 0. 6139 R 0. 0807 1. 4995 0. 1337 R 0. 1056 1. 8464 0. 0648 C * 0. 0985 1. 7443 0. 0811 C * 2015-0. 0572-0. 3057 0. 7598 R 0. 0874 1. 5934 0. 1111 R 0. 1063 1. 8543 0. 0637 C * 0. 1017 1. 7892 0. 0736 C * Arcgis10. 2 * 90% ** 95% R C 42
3 Moran s I - 0. 0807 0. 0276 2005-2015 Moran s I 0. 0730 0. 1216 1994-2004 2 2005-2015 Moran s I 0. 1038 0. 1643 / GDP 3 1996-2015 / 4 Global Moran s I Z P 3 Z - 1. 65 + 1. 65 2004-2005 1996-2004 Z 2003 + 1. 65 P 0. 1 2008 90% 95% Z P GDP 1996-2015 2015 Z P 90% 95% 1996-2015 2015 / 1996-2004 2016 1996-2004 2016 11997 / 1996 1 1996 31 / / 2 43
2018 8 4 22 3 23 1999 5 4 / 24 2. 4 25 σ - 2006 2 1 26 2012 2010 6 2 27 2010 2013 8 3 28 2013 4 4 Willian Petty. Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic 2015 12 Fairford Echo Library 2006. 5 3 2004 2015 8 6 Fisher G. B. Economic Progress and Social Security London Macmillan & Co. Ltd. 1945. 7 Brownlee O. H. Review Economic Progress and Social Security by Allan G. B. Fisher Journal of Political Economy 1946 54 6 555. 8 Colin Clark. The Conditions of Economic Progress London Macmillan & Co. Ltd 1940. 9 1989 10 Chenery H Robinson S Syrquin M. Industrialization and Growth A Comparative Study Oxford Oxford University Press 1986. 11 Spatial Econometrics International Regional Science Review 2002 26 2 153-166. 1995 12 1962 13 Hirschman A. The Strategy of Economic Development Connecticut Yale University Press 1958. 14 Leontief W. Studies in the Structure of the American Economy - Theoretical and Empirical Explorations in Input - Output A- nalysis New York Oxford University Press 1953. 15 2016 1 2008 40 16 2003 5 1986 4 41 17 2008 5 1988 2 42 18 2015 4 1988 10 43 19 2015 6 1989 11 44 20 2016 8 24 1989 1 21 1989 1990 9 1999 6 29 30 2015 10 31 2016 11 32 2017 1 33 Ebdon D. Statistics in Geography Second Edition Oxford Basil Blackwell 1991. 34 Shaw G Wheeler D. Statistical Techniques in Geographical A- nalysis Second Edition Chichester Wiley 1994. 35 Anselin. L. Spatial Externalities Spatial Multipliers and 36 Moore JH. A Measure of Structural Change in Output Review of Income and Wealth 1978 24 1 105-118. 37 2015 2 38 2005 3 39 44
Regional Characteristics and Spatial Pattern Evolution of Industrial Structure Change in China Hu Wei & Chen Xiaodong & Liu Zhuang Abstract The spatial characteristics and spatial pattern development characteristics of the industrial structure evolution have been the core issues of the industrial structure adjustment and promotion of regional coordinated development. The 19th Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party made it clear that it should take the supply side structural reform as the main line. Under new normal state China economy slows it shows important theoretical and practical significance for implementing industrial policy in accordance with local conditions promoting the orderly adjustment of industrial structure and accelerating the supply-side structural reform to grasp the spatial and temporal pattern of China s industrial structure evolution as well as regional development trend of industrial transfer. Based on the provincial panel data this paper uses the GIS spatial analysis and spatial econometric to analyze the regional development characteristics the spatial pattern evolution and the trend of provincial industrial transfer of three strata of industry from 1996 to 2015 and then reveals the distribution status and development trend of China s three industries at the provincial level. Key words industrial structure regional characteristics spatial pattern regional economy 25 Heterogeneity R&D Subsidy Technical Change and Environmental Quality Dong Zhiqing & Wang Hui Abstract The literature makes the opposite with clean and dirty technical innovation when researching the relationship between technology change and environmental quality. Ignoring the environmental quality can be improved by efficient use of energy. This paper introduces the different R&D subsidies into the two - sector model of clean and dirty technology to examine the coupling impact of clean and dirty technology on the environmental quality and measures the level of effect on environmental quality using numerical stimulation. It shows that 1 there exist opposition compatible features between the effect of cleaning and dirty technology on environmental quality the dirty technology has duality effect on environmental quality and the contribution of clean technology is not necessarily accounted for excellent. 2 Different R&D subsidies can change the direction of technical progress and affect the quality of environment. And double subsidies are better than a single one. In the real background where the dirty technology is dominant a single subsidy will cause environmental welfare losses. Key words heterogeneity R&D subsidy technical progress environmental quality 45
1867 150 * A811 A 1001-8263 2018 08-0046 - 07 DOI 10. 15937 /j. cnki. issn 1001-8263. 2018. 08. 006 130012 2 1 3 * 16ZDA242 14BZX021 46