17 18 : ( ) : ; : : ; : ( ) : ; 6 1 ( 1989)

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1 ( 290 ) China Industrial Economics May 2012 No.5 ( ) [ ] ; ; 30 [ ] ; ; ; [ ]F124.1 [ ]A [ ] X(2012) [ ] [ ] : ; : [ ] (1950 ) 5

2 17 18 : ( ) : ; : : ; : ( ) : ; 6 1 ( 1989)

3 ; ; 2025 ; 2025 ( 2011) ( 2011) 1 50 (15 ) GDP 12.3% 25.8% (15 ) % 5.3% 61.1%( 2011) 3 ( ) ; % 2009 (10057 ) 7% % GDP 32.9% 1978 GDP 4.9% 22% 7

4 1978 : ! 1978 GDP (1042 ) ; ( ) : 7 ( ) 7 ( ) 8 ( ) 11 ( ) ; ( % %) 30 ( % %) (1) (IMF) % 18.42%; % 10.87%; % 5.88%; % 2.62%; % 2.25% ( 2011) 8

5 % % HIS % 19.4% 1895 (2) (3) ; (4) % % (5) ( ) 4 9

6 (6) ; ( ) ; ; GDP GDP GDP 1. ( ) 10

7 1/5 ;? ; ; ( ) 2. GDP GDP GDP (PPP) ( 1) 1 :% PPP : (2011 ) 2011 GDP GDP 11%; =1 11

8 44.5% 44.6% : ( ) ; ; ; % 72.6% ?!? : 12

9 19 20 ( ) ( ) ? :?? :? :?? 13

10 : Made in China ( ) ; ; Made in China Made in China 21 14

11 ! ( ) ; ( ) 15

12 30 : : ; ; ( ) WTO ; 16

13 ?? ; ;! [R] (2010/2011)[R] [J]. 2011(8). 4. [J]. 2011(7). 5. [M]. : (2010) [M]. : 2010(11). 7. 2: [M]. : [M]. : : [M]. : [J]. 2011( )(5/6). 11. (2011) [M]. : [J]. 2011(10). 13 [ ]. [M]. : ( 121 ) 17

14 enterprises on the background that developing countries have been involved in international outsourcing practice under global value chain division system. We regard that subcontracting activities will be accompanied by trap. This paper puts forward a theoretic framework for analyzing international outsourcing trap. International outsourcing trap describes the situation that subcontracting enterprises has fallen into low-level subcontracting activities and is difficult to extricate themselves. It is different from comparative advantage trap on theoretical basis concept assumption formation mechanism and generating effects. Heavy dependences on technology provided by clients enterprises and low labour quality are main reasons why subscontracting enterprises are apt to falling into international outsourcing trap. The results from falling into international outsourcing trap are human capital accumulation becomes slower accumulation for technical innovation capabitlity is lacked technology gap and marginal productivity gap between subscontracting enterprises in developing countries and clients enterprises in developed countries is bigger and bigger. Based on the above mentioned framework this paper builds a mathematical model to analyze the generating mechanism of international outsourcing trap then clarifies technology accumulation and promotion by external market demand are two main routes to realize going beyond international outsourcing trap sums up three modes of going beyond international trap as one-foot two-feet leapfrogging mode. Finally this paper puts forward some suggestions for stipulating stategies by subcontracting enterprises and relevant industry policies by governments of developing countries. Key Words: international outsourcing; international outsourcing trap; generating mechanism; routes for going beyond; modes of going beyond :!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( 17 ) 14 [ ] [ ]. [M].. : :90 [R]. : New Pattern of Global Competition and China s Industrial Development Trend JIN Bei (Institute of Industrial Economics CASS Beijing China) Abstract: Since the latter half of the 20 th century (the 21 st century in particular) the world industrialization has gone through a series of historical changes. In addition to political incidents such as the collapse of the Soviet Union that has led to significant change in geopolitical pattern. However international economic pattern (fundamental change in industrial development pattern in particular) is the primary cause for significant change in world industrial pattern. Among which the centre of economic gravity shifting eastward is one of the manifestation a process powered by the rise of China. China s industrialization process is stunning in speed and was regarded as a condensed industrialization which means to have completed industrialization with much short time than other countries. Currently China is in a critical stage to enter the world s advanced manufacturing sector. Industrialization is a historical period during which remarkable change in economic and social structure as well as structural imbalances will happen in essence it is a process of the evolution of civilization. China s industrialization process is on one hand an extension of the technical route of the West industrialized countries; and on the other hand heavily affected by the Chinese civilization. Therefore China s industrialization differs from its Western counterparts in terms of institutional mechanism despite minor difference in technical route. At this historical moment when China s industrialization (after three decades of splendored achievements) is heading towards the industrial powers reform of economical and political mechanism will become the focus of the society. Key Words: industrialization; globalization; global competitive landscape; China s industrial development : 121

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