2007 7 3 601009 3 (0755) 82416978 22%26% shaozq@pasc.com.cn 48% 075522626813 lijing@pasc.com.cn 10 www.njcb.com.cn 700 ( ) 1907 35% 2.6 A (%) 36.7 ( ) 30512 9.5~11.5 5 PB 4 PB 19.4 % 12.5 PE 31 PE % 12.15 12.4 DDM 16.3 EVA 18.8 GORDEN 3.03 PB 14.7 16.3 BVPS() 2.16 15.5~18.7 2007 BVPS() 4.84 9.5~11.5 9.5~11.5 : 15.5~18.7 2006 ROE(%) 25% 2007 ROE(%) 13% PE PB 12 31 ( ) ( ) ( ) (%) () () () () () (%) 2005 1,219 702 367 67.8 0.19 1.74 88.2 9.7 0.08 0.47 2006 1,509 903 595 61.9 0.31 2.16 54.5 7.9 0.10 0.59 2007F 2,044 1,210 763 28.3 0.40 4.84 42.5 3.5 0.08 0.48 2008F 2,635 1,531 1,045 36.9 0.55 5.39 31.0 3.2 0.11 0.65 2009F 3,249 1,881 1,270 21.6 0.67 6.05 25.5 2.8 0.14 0.80 17
...3 1.... 3 APB... 3 BPE... 3 2.... 4 ADDM... 4 BEVA... 4 C.... 4 3.... 5 4.... 5...5...6...8 1. 10... 8 2.... 9 3.... 9 4.... 10 5.... 10 6.... 11...12...14 2/15
1. APB A A 2007 4.2 2007 3.1 4.5 4 2007 IPO 4.84 19.36 1 PB 20070706 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F 600036 23.67 3.75 4.48 5.53 6.84 6.3 5.3 4.3 3.5 601166 32.35 4.05 7.38 8.92 10.84 8.0 4.4 3.6 3.0 600016 11.14 1.90 3.24 3.81 4.53 5.9 3.4 2.9 2.4 600000 33.55 5.67 6.75 8.31 10.27 5.9 5.0 4.0 3.3 600015 10.65 2.77 3.29 3.98 4.80 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.2 601988 4.86 1.53 1.75 2.06 2.44 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 601398 4.98 1.44 1.55 1.79 2.08 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.4 601998 8.51 1.02 1.80 2.02 2.30 8.3 4.7 4.2 3.7 601328 10.45 1.93 2.53 2.98 3.53 5.4 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.2 6.2 4.3 3.6 3.0 5.6 4.0 3.4 2.8 BPE A A 32 25 34.7 30.9 2007 0.4 12.36 2 PE 20070706 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F 600036 23.67 0.48 0.73 1.05 1.31 49.0 32.6 22.5 18.0 601166 32.35 0.76 1.06 1.54 1.92 42.7 30.5 21.0 16.8 600016 11.14 0.38 0.40 0.59 0.73 29.3 27.5 19.0 15.2 600000 33.55 0.77 1.08 1.56 1.95 43.6 31.1 21.5 17.2 600015 10.65 0.35 0.52 0.69 0.82 30.7 20.5 15.5 12.9 601988 4.86 0.17 0.22 0.31 0.37 28.6 21.8 15.6 13.0 601398 4.98 0.15 0.18 0.24 0.29 34.1 27.3 20.7 17.2 601998 8.51 0.10 0.15 0.22 0.28 89.1 55.8 38.5 30.8 601328 10.45 0.26 0.33 0.45 0.55 40.4 31.3 23.2 19.0 31.4 24.6 18.1 15.1 46.4 32.8 23.0 18.6 43.1 30.9 21.9 17.8 3/15
2. 5 2009 5 5% 10 5% 2035 4% 10.9% 3 16.3 18.8 14.7 3 12007~2009 10.9% 22010~2014 2009 3% 10.9% 32015~2024 2014 4% 45% 10.9% 42025~2034 2024 5% 5 10.9% 5 2% 5 10.9% ADDM 4 DDM 2007 763 31107 1907 16.3 = BEVA 5 EVA 2007 763 2007 9227 ROE% 17.5% % 10.9% EVA 26578 35805 = + 1907 18.8 = C. 1 7 3.4209% 2 7.5% 3β1 4ROA 2006 1.1% 5 / 7.5% 6 3.03 2007 4.84 14.7 4/15
6 3.4% 7.5% Beta 1 10.9% ROA 1.1% / 7.5% ROE 14.89% / G 8.9% = 1 PB () 3.03 3. PB 4 PB 19.4 PE 31 PE 12.4 DDM 16.3 EVA 18.8 GORDEN 3.03 PB 14.7 16.3 15.5~18.7 4. 2007 17 7 8.0 9.0 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.0 12.5 2 3.63 3.37 3.25 3.04 2.85 2.76 2.68 25% 3.62 3.36 3.24 3.03 2.84 2.76 2.68 3 3.61 3.35 3.23 3.02 2.83 2.75 2.67 35% 3.60 3.34 3.22 3.01 2.83 2.74 2.66 3.58 3.33 3.21 3.00 2.82 2.74 2.66 45% 3.57 3.32 3.20 2.99 2.81 2.73 2.65 5 3.56 3.31 3.19 2.99 2.81 2.72 2.65 55% 3.55 3.30 3.18 2.98 2.80 2.72 2.64 3.54 3.29 3.17 2.97 2.79 2.71 2.63 65% 3.53 3.28 3.16 2.96 2.78 2.70 2.63 2006 181 8.48% 20071 113 2.68 5/15
5.8% 4.52% 2006 1000 9 20063 2001 10 5% 4 8 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1996 2 8 40 12.07 2002 2005 7 3.16% 12.15% 58 2007 2 2006 12 31 579 439 255 15 7.83% 6 5.33% 7 1 1 2 6/15
2006 3 + + = 9 10 238.64 19.77% 12.51% 231.71 19.2 12.15% 205.20 17.0 10.76% 60.32 5.0 3.16% 20.80 1.72% 1.09% 20.44 1.69% 1.07% 20.00 1.66% 1.05% 20.00 1.66% 1.05% 19.63 1.63% 1.03% 10.27 0.85% 0.54% 847.01 70.2% 44.4% 10 10 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 5 8 1 9 7 2 5 10 2 4-3 4 1 2 6 3 4 1 2 5 7/15
1. 10 10 1996 2006 41 579 3000 5.95 32 439 20 255 2004~2006 16.23%12% 24% 27% 2006 7.83%5.33% 2007 2 3 6-8 3~5 2 12 3 7 5 3 2 1 23.02% 24.39% 27.67% 23.71% 28.96% 52.96% 65.21% 13 18% 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 8/15
2. 10 2006 38.5% 05 4 2006 8.13 53.9% 137% 14 10 10 9 8 9 8 7 7 5 3 2 1 37.9% 42.3% 38.5% 5 3 2 1 2004 2005 2006 15 10 10 8 2-2 8 53.9% 45.6% 48.1% 45.8% 44.1% 42.9% 2 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F -2 3. 2 5%19.2% 2 1 9/15
FORBES2006 6 4. 2006 2.47%2.59% 16 12 10 8 2 2004 2005 2006 5. 2004 48% 2006 35% 37.6% 17 45 40 35 30 40.59 37.86 28.67 33.16 25 20 15 10 16.67 20.2 5 0 0.390.45 10/15
18 1200 1000 965 800 600 400 820 425 408 731 669 200 0 9.919.16 6. 2006 2.5% 2007 2.2% 2006 107% A 2006 1.16 19 10 12 9 8 10 7 8 5 3 2 2 1 2004 2005 2006 11/15
20 2004 2005 2006 05 2006 7.4% 6.4% 8.18% 1.81% 0.0 7.4% 10.2% 10.96% 0.73% 0.0 3.6% 4.9% 5.57% 0.66% 14.08% 5.7% 3.2% 3.86% 0.65% 2.79% 7.1% 3.9% 4.27% 0.36% 0.68% 0.9% 0.9% 0.76% -0.15% 0.0 13.9% 12.3% 11.98% -0.3 3. 15.8% 17.4% 16.72% -0.67% 4.63% 8.1% 7.5% 5.84% -1.64% 1.77% 12.4% 10.9% 9.06% -1.79% 1.77% 82.3% 77.6% 77.2-0.36% 3.03% 5.5% 11.2% 10.34% -0.83% 0.0 0.6% 0.5% 0.7 0.22% 0.0 88.5% 89.2% 88.25% -0.96% 2.65% 21 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 1106 1324 1802 2335 2879 1755 2241 2857 3704 4664 649 917 1055 1369 1785 42 58 77 100 130 56 70 92 120 156 14 12 16 20 26 71 127 165 201 239 1219 1509 2044 2635 3249 534 626 833 1104 1367 685 884 1210 1531 1881 702 903 1210 1531 1881-187 -106-189 -255-323 497 771 1021 1276 1559-130 -176-259 -232-288 367 595 763 1045 1270 0.30 0.49 0.40 0.55 0.67 1.74 2.16 4.84 5.39 6.05 12/15
22 12 31 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2669 3930 5878 7086 8611 782 1019 1121 1233 1294 8 0 2386 1274 1865 188 222 299 383 448 19434 24830 33599 42855 53772 24400 26759 28999 34799 41759 9 148 591 768 998 408 432 692 1037 1452 11 16 23 28 34 103 59 47 42 38 557 510 1185 1474 1359 48568 57923 74820 90980 111630 1054 5555 6722 10060 14623 250 966 290 319 351 5612 1737 1563 1407 1266 35859 43858 53068 64212 78339 420 563 681 824 1005 800 800 800 800 800 2708 2147 2469 3087 3704 46464 55312 65593 80708 100088 1207 1207 1907 1907 1907 898 1404 7320 8244 9360 2104 2611 9227 10272 11542 48568 57923 74820 90980 111630 23 12 31 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 763 1,045 1,270 763 1,045 189 255 323 189 255 56 85 119 56 85 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 0-46 -54-50 -46-54 -776-964 -1,157-776 -964 59 0 0 59 0-3,638 4,951 5,603-3,638 4,951 33 33 33 33 33-3,350 5,360 6,151-3,350 5,360 934 1,159 1,391 934 1,159-2,205-6,492-7,582-2,205-6,492-4,620 27-41 -4,620 27-121 -155-212 -121-155 -33-33 -33-33 -33 5,950 0 0 5,950 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,797-188 -245 5,797-188 1,176-161 -286 1,176-161 185 1,361 1,200 185 1,361 1,361 1,200 915 1,361 1,200 22~23 13/15
24 12 31 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F % 25% 2 36% 3 23% -39 63% 31% 24% 23% 45% 24% 35% 29% 23% 81% 29% 34% 27% 23% 68% 55% 32% 25% 22% 68% 62% 28% 37% 22% 68% 62% -19% 37% 22% % 58% 59% 58% 58% 41% 51% 5 48% 48% 3 39% 37% 39% ROA 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% ROE 19.5% 25.2% 12.9% 10.7% 11.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% % 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 94% 107% 109% 109% 111% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% % 9% 8% 14% 13% 12% 13% 12% 15% 14% 13% / 41% 44% 46% 48% 49% 5 52% 58% 62% 65% / 42% 39% 39% 38% 37% / 4% 5% 12% 11% 1 / 8 88% 86% 89% 9 2 IPO 25 2005 2006 199.00 265.00 1,578.82 2,136.37 1.27% 1.33% 10.08% 10.75% 14/15
2007 518029 4008866338 075582449257