Samuelson 1958 Neher 1971 Becker C

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1 Vol. 38 No. 1 January Population Research * 2000 ~ Panel Data An Empirical Study of the Impact of Demographic Factors on Regional Consumption Based on China's Provincial Data Shi Beibei Wang Jinying Abstract This paper investigates the regional consumption function of China's provinces based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2000 to 2010 in order to explore the effects of demographic factors on regional consumption. The results show that demographic variables such as the level of urbanization and schooling the inflowing rate of external population and the degree of aging have significant impact on the regional consumption. Apart from this the influences of demographic factors on consumption vary from place to place which is caused by the discrepancies of population effects among regions. Thus we draw the conclusion at the regional level the lagged development of urbanization hinders the expansion of consumption and domestic demand the unevenness of educational level prevents the optimizing of consumption models the aggregation effect of transient population promotes the consumption level and the full use of age structure unleashes the regional consumption advantages. Keywords Regional Consumption Urbanization Population Quality Population Flowing Age Structure Authors Shi Beibei is Graduate Student College of Economics Hebei University Wang Jinying is Dean and Professor College of Economics Hebei University. Baoding shi _ 163. com * ARK001

2 Samuelson 1958 Neher 1971 Becker C = f I S P... 1 C I S P

3 a. C g it = α i + β ' 1 X ' it + u it i = 1 N t = 1 T 2 α i X ' it = x 1it x 2it x Kit β ' 1 = β 1it β 1it β 1it K N 31 T b. C h it = α i + β ' 2 X ' it + u it i = 1 N t = 1 T 3 α i X ' it = x 1it x 2it x Kit β ' 2 = β 2it β 2it β 2it K N 31 T ~ Table 1 1 Index Selection and Data Preparation + * + * / GDP ~ 65 / / / 2000

4 ~ ~ 2010 GDP ~ Figure 1 Scatter Diagram of Final Consumption of 31 Provinces in China 2000 ~ ~ ~ Table 2 Descriptive Statistics of Final Consumption 2000 ~

5 ~ GDP Figure 2 Scatter Diagram of the Ratio of Final Consumption to GDP in 31 Provinces in China 2000 ~ ~ % ~ 80% % ~ 80% % GDP Table 3 Descriptive Statistics of the Ratio of Final Consumption to GDP 2000 ~

6 ~ GDP 40% % ~ 59% GDP ~ 2010 GDP Table 4 4 Correlation Coefficients of Consumption and Population and Economic Factors GDP panel data 1 LLC ADF-Fisher PP-Fisher Breintung 1

7 1 83 I 0 5% 2010 Pedroni Kao Table 5 Co-integration Test Results of Model 2 & 3 Statistic Prob. Weighted Statistic Prob. 2 Pedroni Panel v-statistic Panel rho-statistic Panel PP-Statistic Panel ADF-Statistic Group rho-statistic Kao Group PP-Statistic Group ADF-Statistic ADF Kao ADF Pedroni Panel ADF-Statistic Group PP-Statistic Group ADF-Statistic Kao Pedroni Pedroni 5 Kao 4 Eviews

8 Table Test Results of Model 2 & R R R R F-statistic F-statistic Prob F-statistic Prob F-statistic % F 1 R 2 = R 2 = % Table 7 7 Regression Result of Government Consumption Function T P C g = 0. 57* pt * pe * pu * po * pf C g pt pe pu po pf T 99%

9 Table 8 8 Regression Result of Household Consumption Function T P GDP C h = 0. 52* pt * s * gdp * pe * pf pt s gdp pe pf T 95% 5 GDP 10 GDP c = C h * GDP

10 86 38 Figure 3 3 The Areas of Low Spontaneous Consumption Level Figure 4 4 The Areas of High Spontaneous Consumption Level

12 88 38 /References Yang Deqing Liu Yongji and He Zhaokun Population and Economic Development. Beijing University Press ~ 116 Xu Jinjie A Review of Modern Western Consumption Theory. Journal of Yulin Teachers College Philosophy & Social Science ~ Samuelson P. A An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money. Journal of Political Economy ~ Neher P. A Peasants Procreation and Pensions. American Economic Review ~ Becker Gary S A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge MA Harvard University Press Wang Yujian The Estimate and Interpretation of China's Consumption Function in Yu Jingyuan edited China Economic Reform and Development Study. The Commercial Press Zhang Fengbo Analysis of Macro-economy in China. People's Press Zhang Fengbo Macro-economic Structure and Policy in China. China Finance Economic Press ~ 49 Qin Duo Study on the Relations of Total Household Consumption to Income. Economic Research Journal 7 46 ~ Li Yining An Empirical Analysis of Macro-economy in China. Beijing University Press Li Zinai Econometrics Methods and Application. Tsinghua University Press ~ 44 Jin Xiaotong and Yan Chao Regional Division and Regional Switching in the Dynamic Process of China's Consumption Growth. China Industrial Economics 7 36 ~ An Wenjuan Liu Defen and Chang Tong Evaluation of China's Regional Economic Gradient Based on Factor Analysis. Business Culture ~ 44 Guo Ying and Jin Ying Positive Analysis on Effect of People's Income in Rural and Urban Areas on Consumption Needs from the Perspective of Regional Difference. Journal of Wenzhou Vocational & Technical College 3 42 ~ 44.

13 Sun Yuefang Guo Zhaozhuang Zhang Cuilian and Cheng Guangtao An Analysis of Tendency and Forecast of Urban Household Consumption Structure. Journal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University Eviews Yi Danhui Data Analysis and Application of EViews. Renmin University of China Press Sun Wensheng and Jin Guanghua Study on the Relationship Between Population Growth and Economic Development in China. China Population Press ~ 36 Wang Jinying and Fu Xiubin Econometric Analysis of China Consumption Function Taking into Account Age Structure Impact of Aging Population on Consumption in China. Population Research 1 29 ~ Li Wenxing A Study of the Effects of Population Age Structure on the Household Consumption in China. Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wang Xia Changes in Population Age Structure and Resident's Consumption inchina Theory and Evidence. Zhejiang University ~ 40 Li Linjie Shen Bo and Li Yang Considerations and Countermeasures on Accelerating Population Urbanization to Expand Domestic Consumption Demand. China Soft Science 7 30 ~ Liu Shucheng Dictionary of Modern Economics. Phoenix Publishing House Jiangsu People's Publishing House SPSS Guo Zhigang Methods of Social Statistical Analysis with SPSS Application. Renmin University of China Press Li Zinai and Pan Wenqing Econometrics Third Edition. Higher Education Press ~ 36 Wang Jinying Shi Beibei Li Jingbo and Zhang Hui The Study on the Population Active Variables Impact on the Economic Growth and Production Factors Efficiency. Population Journal 3 25 ~ ~ 9 Yu Shubo Study on the Effect of Population Urbanization on Consumption Demand. Economy and Management 10 5 ~ Yi Danhui and Yin Deguang Statistics of Household Consumption. Renmin University of China Press Zang Xuheng The Analysis of Consumption Function in China. Shanghai Sanlian Bookstore Shanghai People's Publishing House ~ National Bureau of Statistics of China China Statistics Yearbook 2001 ~ China Statistics Press

United Nations ~ ~ % 2010

United Nations ~ ~ % 2010 42 3 2018 5 Vol. 42 No. 3 May 2018 38 Population Research 2014 60 3% ~ 4% 10% 60 +