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1 Vol. 38 No. 3 May Population Research * % 20. 5% 12. 1% 8. 4% Fertility Intention of Rural and Urban Residents in China Results from the 2013 National Fertility Intention Survey Zhuang Yaer Jiang Yu Wang Zhili Li Chengfu Qi Jianan Wang Hui Liu Hongyan Li Bohua Qin Min Abstract In preparing for fertility policy adjustment and implementing the Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings a national fertility intention survey was conducted in 29 provinces in China in August Survey results indicate that currently the ideal number of children is in China. The reported ideal number of children in regions with 1 child 1. 5 and 2 children policies are and respectively. For the couples both of which have no siblings one of which has siblings and both of which have siblings the reported ideal numbers of children are and respectively. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child the reported ideal number of children is The overall sex ratio of reported ideal numbers of children is 104 males per 100 females in China. The sex ratio is 128 for those whose ideal number of children is 1 and 102 for those whose ideal number of children is 2. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child 59% are uncertain about the birth timing of next child 20. 5% plan to give a birth in one year 12. 1% plan to give a birth in two years and 8. 4% plan to have one in three years. Adjustment of family planning policy will help narrow the gap between fertility intention and fertility behavior and it is highly unlikely that a nation-wide birth heaping would occur if the Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings is well implemented. Keywords Fertility Intention Ideal Number of Children Fertility Intention Survey Fertility Policy Authors Zhuang Yaer is Associate Research Fellow Jiang Yu is Research Assistant Wang Zhili is Associate Research Fellow Li Chengfu is Associate Research Fellow Qi Jianan is Associate Research Fellow Wang Hui is Associate Research Fellow Liu Hongyan is Research Fellow Li Bohua is Research Fellow and Qin Min is Associate Research Fellow China Population and Development Research Center. yaerzh@ 126. com * 2012BAI40B01

Li Bohua Qin Min Abstract In preparing for fertility policy adjustment and implementing the Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings a national fertility intention survey was

2 ~ ~ ~ ~ 49 1

3 % 1 2 PPS PPS 2011 PPS

400 400 2400 1400 600 400 1400 600 400 400

4 ~ % 27. 6% 4. 0% 11. 0% % 40. 2% 49. 3% 8. 3% 0. 6% 1. 6% % % % 4. 2% ~ N = % N = % N = % N = % N = % ~ % 20. 5% 19. 3% 16. 5% 2. 3% 2. 2% 1. 9%

79 1. 83 1. 95 1 1 N = 36851 58. 5% 1. 83 1 N = 19149 30. 4% 1. 80 1 N = 9552 15. 2% 1. 84 N = 3664 5.

5 3 7 Table 1 1 Average Ideal Number of Children among People with Different Characteristics % ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

3 1. 93 29687 47. 1 0. 1 13. 2 82. 0 4. 6 1. 92 33350 52. 9 0. 0 10. 9 83. 1 6. 0 1. 96 45655 72. 4 0. 2 19. 2 78. 4 2. 1 1. 83 17382 27. 6 0. 0 9. 9 80. 0 10. 1 2. 03 9667 15. 3 0. 0 12. 4 82. 4 5.

6 Figure 1 1 Average Ideal Number of Children in Different Regions % 13. 2% 81. 8% 4. 9% 2 Figure 2 2 Distribution of Ideal Number of Children %

63 1 Figure 1 1 Average Ideal Number of Children in Different Regions 1

7 % 2 Table Distribution of Ideal Number of Children by the Couples with One Child in Areas with Different Fertility Policies % % % 3 Table Distribution of Ideal Number of Children Being Two by Couples with One Child by Family Type and Fertility Policy % 2 % % N = % 22. 2% 44. 5% N = % % % 16. 3%

2 100 531 1 1 1 2 77. 0% 1 2 79. 2% 3 Table 3 3 1 2 Distribution of Ideal Number of Children Being Two by Couples with One Child by Family Type and Fertility Policy 1 1 2 % 2 % 77. 2 14778 80.

8 % % % % 44. 4% % 62. 7% 62. 5% 70. 2% % 54. 8% 54. 4% 66. 0% 55. 8% Figure Proportions Wishing to have a Second Child by Age of Women in One Child Families Where One of the Parents Has No Siblings 1 1 N = % 1 N = % N = % 76. 1% 21. 7% N = % 3. 4% 34. 3% % % %

8% 10 2 2 3 3 Figure 3 1 2 Proportions Wishing to have a Second Child by Age of Women in One Child

9 % 12. 1% 8. 4% 4 4 Table 4 Distribution of Timing of the Next Planned Child by Number of Surviving Children % ~ % 35 ~ % 5 5 Table 5 1 Distribution of Timing of the Next Planned Child by Age of Women in One Child Families Where One of the Parents Has No Siblings % 20 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ % 1 2 N = % 1 / Table Contraceptive Prevalence Rate of Couples with One Child One of the Parents Has No Sibling Who Wish to have a Second Child

4% 5 5 Table 5 1 Distribution of Timing of the Next Planned Child by Age of Women in One Child Families Where One of the Parents Has No Siblings % 20 ~ 24 25 ~ 29 30 ~ 34 35 ~ 39 40 ~ 44 20. 8 9.

10 ~ % % / References Wang Jun and Wang Guangzhou Assessment of Fertility Intention and Its Impact among People at Childbearing Ages. Chinese Journal of Population Sciences

. 2013 4 26-35 Wang Jun and Wang Guangzhou. 2013. Assessment of Fertility Intention and Its Impact among People at Childbearing Ages.

11 3 13 Population Census Office under the State Council Department of Population Statistics of National Bureau of Statistics Tabulation on the 1982 Population Census of China. Beijing China Statistics Press Population Census Office under the State Council Department of Population Statistics of National Bureau of Statistics Tabulation on the 1990 Population Census of China Volume Ⅲ. Beijing China Statistics Press China Population Association China Population Association Annual Meeting Materials in Beijing Dec Chen Wei Assessment of Fertility Level since 2000 in China. Academia Bimestris Xu Jing Divergence between Low Fertility and Desired Fertility in China. Population and Development Wang Guangzhou Hu Yaoling and Zhang Liping Adjustment of Family Planning Policy in China. Social Sciences Academic Press Li Jianmin Fertility Rationale Fertility Decision-making and Transition of Mechanisms in Stabilizing Low Fertility in China. Population Research Shen Ke Wang Feng and Cai Yong The Global Population Policy Shift and Lessons for China. International Economic Review Tang Mengjun Choice for China's Population Policy Lessons from East Asian Region. Population Research Chen Wei and JinYongai Gaps between Fertility Intentions and Fertility Outcomes in China Patterns and Determinants. Population Journal JinYongai Low Fertility Trap Theories Facts and Implications. Population Research Zheng Zhenzhen Fertility Intention and Its Significance Evidence from Jiangsu. Academia Bimestris Mao Zhuoyan An Empirical Analysis on the Discrepancy between Fertility Intention and Behavior. Population & Economics Mao Zhuoyan and Luo Hao Difference between Fertility Intention and Fertility Behavior for Women Subject to the Two-children Policy An Empirical Study on the Theory of Planned Behavior. Population Research Zhuang Yaer and Li Bohua Reflections on Sampling of Migrants Surveys. Population Research Gu Baochang On Fertility and Fertility Transition Number Timing and Gender. Population Research Qiao Xiaochun What Will Happen When the Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Sibling Is Implemented Population and Family Planning

Beijing China Statistics Press 568-570. 4. 2013. 2013-12 21-23 China Population Association. 2013. China Population Association Annual Meeting Materials in 2013. Beijing Dec. 21-23. 5. 2000.

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~ ~ * 40 4 2016 7 Vol. 40 No. 4 July 2016 35 Population Research 2014 1 2016 2016 9101. 0 40 49. 6% 2017 ~ 2021 1719. 5 160 ~ 470 100872 Accumulated Couples and Extra Births under the Universal Tw o-child