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1 * Vol. 38 No. 4 July Population Research Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents of Only Child in Rural China Ding Zhihong Abstract Changes are taking place in the intention for old-age support of the middle-aged parents of only child in rural China who are increasingly seeking social support or support by their own rather than family support with a considerable portion having no intention at all. Health status economic status and social security largely determine the intention for old-age support of the middle-aged parents of only child. The preference for social support over family support is significantly associated with income education occupation and social security while the preference for support by own over family support is significantly related to family size income age education and health status. It is surprising that gender of the only child land ownership and region do not have significant effects on their intention for old-age support. Keywords Rural Area Middle-aged Parents of the Only Child Intention for Old-age Support Author Ding Zhihong is Associate Professor School of Social Development Central University of Finance and Economics. * 10@ ZH020

2 % 2 40 ~

3 / / / / / / 3 40 ~ PPS % 48. 4% 52. 4% 47. 6% 90. 4% 9. 6% 18 ~ ~ ~ % 43. 6% 30. 7% Logistic Logit Logistic

4 Logit Table 1 1 Descriptive Statistics of Variables % % N = 1618 N = N = 1618 N = ~ ~ N = 1618 N = N = N = N = % % / / 22% 28. 6%

5 % Table 2 Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child and of Those Having more Children % % / / / N Pearson Chi-Square = df = 6 Sig. = Table 3 Proportions Having a Definite Answer Regarding the Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child % % N = 1606 N = N = 1606 ** N = ~ ~ N = 1606 ** N = N = 1606 **** N = 1605 *** N = 1602 **** * p < 0. 1 **p < ***p < ****p < ~ ~

6 % 80% 77% 90% % Logistic Logistic logit p = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + β 2 x β p x p p β 0 β p p x p 4 Logistic Table 4 Logistic Regression Analysis of the Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child B S. E. Exp B ~ *** * ** ** ** *** **** Constant **** Chi - square Log likelihood Nagelkerke R Square * p < 0. 1 **p < ***p < ****p <

7 ~ ~ % 73. 7% % ~ ~ ~ ~ % % % 30% 40% 30% % % /3 1 /4 60% 44% 1 /3 30%

8 Table 5 Specific Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child % N = 1259 ** N = 1259 **** 40 ~ ~ N = 1259 **** N = 1233 **** N = 1259 **** N = 1257 **** N = 1258 **** N = 1228 **** N = 1259 **** * p < 0. 1 **p < ***p < ****p < Logit Logit k = Logit k n k = = β' k X K = n - 1 exp β' k X 1 + n-1 exp β' k X k = 1 1 n = 1 + n-1 exp β' k X k = 1

9 4 109 β k n + l α X 3 Logit Multinomial Logit Model MNL Logistic % 49. 8% 68. 9% % Table 6 6 MNL The MNL Regression Analysis of the Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents Having an Only Child / / B S. E Exp B B S. E Exp B *** *** **** ~ * ** *** ** *** ** **** **** ** **** *** **** * Log Likelihood Intercept Only 2558 Final 1938 Chi-Square * p < 0. 1 **p < ***p < ****p <

10 ~ ~ ~ % 45. 4% 60% /5 /References Wang Guangzhou Size Structure and Future Trends of Chinese Only Children. Population Research Ding Zhihong and Hu Qiangqiang The Demographic Analysis of the Widowed in China During 1990s. South China Population Feng Xiaotian From Dependent to Independent the Important Change on Idea of the Elderly Support of Only Child Family. Hebei Academic Journal Xu Jun and Feng Xiaotian A Research on the Endowment Problem for Parents of the First Generation Only Children

11 4 111 in China. Population and Economics Mu Guangzong Only-child Families Are Essentially Risk Families. Population Research CASS Rural Social Security System Discussion Group Push Forward the Rural Social Insurance Actively and Steadily. People's Forum Guo Ji Intention for Old-age Support of the Yong and Middle-aged Women in Rural Developed Areas A Case Study of Zhejiang Province. Population and Economics Cheng Yuan and Zhang Zhen Research on the Intention for Old-age Support of the Aged in Shanghai. Market and Demographic Analysis Li Jianxin Yu Xuejun Wang Guangzhou and Liu Hongyan Desires and Practices for Old-age Support in China. Population and Economics Long Shuqin and Feng Xiaotian Desires for Old-age Support of the Urban Residents and Its Influencing Factors An Analysis of the Living Conditions of the Elderly in Four Cities in Jiangsu. Social Science in Nanjing Wang Xueyi and Zhang Chong. Empirical Analysis of the Desires for Old-age Support of the Parents in Rural Areas Based on the Data of Mianyang and Deyang in Sichuan Province. Rural Economy Xiao Yun and Wen Li Intention for Old-age Support of Young Peasants and the Sustainable Development of Rural Endowment Insurance the Investigation and Analysis of 481 Young Peasants. Population and Economics Chen Linxiao Analysis of Intention and Demand for Old-age Support of the Rural Elderly A Case Study of Taizhou Area. Future and Development Tang Liping and Feng Xiaotian Analysis on the First Generation Only-child Parents' Desire for Old-age Support in Rural Area. Population Journal Kong Xiangzhi and Tu Shengwei Analysis on the Farmers Desire for Old-age Support at the Present Stage Based on Sample Survey in Yongan Shaowu and Guangze. Journal of Renmin University of China Shen Suyan Li Fang and Xie Yong Intention for Old-age Support of the Young and Middle-aged People in Rural Areas Investigation of Five Counties in Nanjing. Issues in Agricultural Economy

4 51 1 Scoones 1998 20 60 70 2002 2001 20 90 World Bank DFID Sussex IDS 2012 2 2. 1 UNDP CARE DFID DFID DFID 1997 IDS 2009 1 5

4 51 1 Scoones 1998 20 60 70 2002 2001 20 90 World Bank DFID Sussex IDS 2012 2 2. 1 UNDP CARE DFID DFID DFID 1997 IDS 2009 1 5 38 4 2014 7 Vol. 38 No. 4 July 2014 50 Population Research * 30 4 100872 Livelihood and Development Capacity of Families Obeying the Family Planning Policy in Rural China A Sustainable Livelihood Analytical