WHO 2000 Arrow 1963 Gertler et al 1997 Buchmueller Bunker 1995 RAND Manning et al 1987 Pauly 2005 Curri

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1 * 2005 CLHLS % 2001 Gerdtham Grant et al % % 2008 * gordon@ gsm. pku. edu. cn chunguangcai@ gmail. com

2 WHO 2000 Arrow 1963 Gertler et al 1997 Buchmueller Bunker 1995 RAND Manning et al 1987 Pauly 2005 Currie et al 1996 Baker et al 2001 Gerler et al 1997 Yip et al RAND Heckman two-part model Heckman probit Mocan et al discrete factor model Wagstaff & Lindelow 2005 CHNS CHNS 96

3 Hausman 2007 CHNS % 2007 Heckman preventive care curative care Sudano et al 2003 Grossman Busch 2005 Gertler 1990 Makinen 2000 Schoen 2000 Zeng et al Anderson Anderson et al predisposing enabling needing y = f X p X e X n y 97

4 X p X e X n 1 1 = 0 = log log = = = = = 1 = = 0 = = 1 = = 1 = = 0 = = 0 = 1 = = = 1 log = 0 = 1 = 2 = 3 = = 0= /

5 sample selection model 0 sample selection bias Heckman 1974 z * 1 = W 1 α 1 + ε 1 > 0 z 1 = 1 z 1 = 0 z 1 = 1 logy 1 = X 1 β 1 + μ 1 ε 1 μ 1 ~ N σ 2 1 ρ E logy 1 z 1 = 1 X 1 W 1 = X 1 β 1 + ρσ 1 W 1 α 1 / Φ W 1 α 1 φ Φ 2. two-part model Duan et al 1983 z * 2 = X 2 α 2 + ε 2 > 0 z 2 = 1 z 2 = 0 z 2 = 1 logy 2 = X 2 β 2 + μ 2 ~ N 0 1 ~ N 0 σ 2 2 ε 2 μ 2 E y 2 z 2 = 1 X 2 = Φ X 2 α 2 exp X 2 β 2 + σ 2 2 /2 0 1 logit Stata 99

6 % 20% % % % 2 95% % 30% 30% 45% 100

7 % 5. 38% 5. 73% 0. 94% 75% 46% % % %

8 5 Heckman = 0 = 0 = = * log * * = lamda

9 = = = log = p = % 91% % % %

10 * = * = * * = * = * log * * * R

11 % 418 p < % p = % = p = p = p = p = = % p = = log p = p = p = % 54% 2005 Anderson 5 Heckman 105

12 6 7 1 /

13 Anderson R. A. Mc Cutchenon L. Aday 1983 Exploring Dimensions of Access to Medical Care Health Services Research Arrow K. J Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care American Economic Review Baker D. W. Joseph J. S. Jeffrey M. A. Elaine A. B. Avi D Lack of Health Insurance and Decline in Overall Health in Late Middle Age New England Journal of Medicine Buchmueller T. C. Grumbach K. Kronick R. Kanhn J. G The Effect of Insurance on Medical Care Utilization and Implications for Insurance Expansions A Review of the Literature Medical Care Research and Review Bunker J. P Medicine Matters After All Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London Busch S. H. Noelia Duchovny 2005 Family Coverage Expansions Impact on Insurance Coverage and Health Care Utilization of Parents Journal of Health Economics Currie J. Gruber J Health Insurance Eligibility Utilization of Medical Care and Child Health Quarterly Journal of Economics Duan Naihua Wilard Manning Jr. Carl Morris and Joseph Newhouse 1983 A Comparison of Alternative Models for the Demand for Medical Care Journal of Business and Economic Statistics Gerdtham U. G The Impact of Ageing on Health Care Expenditure in Sweden Health Policy Gerler P. R. Sturm 1997 Private Health Insurance and Public Expenditure in Jamaica Journal of Econometrics Gertler P. G. J. Van der 1990 The Willingness to Pay for Medical Care The World Bank Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore. Grossman M On the Concept of Heath Care and the Demand for Health Journal of Political Economy Grant J. Audrey Teasdale 1999 Population Ageing and Health Spending 50-year Projections Policy Branch Ministry of Health Wellington New Zealand Occasional Paper NO. 2 http / / www. moh. govt. nz. Heckman J. J. 1974a Shadow Prices Market Wages and Labor Supply Econometrica Makinen W. Rauch A. Bitram Gilson Mclntyre Pannarinothai Prieto Ubilla Ram 2000 Inequalities in Health Care Use and Expenditures Empirical Data from Eight Developing Countries and Countries in Transition Bulletin of the World Health Organization Manning W. G. Newhouse J. P. Duan N. Keeler E. B. Leribowitz A. and Marquis S. Health Insurance and the Demand for Medical Care Evidence from a Randomized Experiment American Economic Review Mocan H. Naci Erdal Tekin Jeffrey S. Zax The Demand for Medical Care in Urban China World Development Pauly M. V Effects of Insurance Coverage on Use of Care and Health Outcomes for Nonpoor Young Women American Economic Review Schoen D. DesRoches Donetan Biendon 2000 Health Insurance Markets and Income Inequality Findings from An International Health Policy Survey Health Policy Sudano J. J. and Baker D. W Intermittent Lack of Health Insurance Coverage and Use of Preventive Services American Journal of Public Health Wagstaff Adam Magnus Lindelow 2005 Can Insurance Increase Financial Risk The Curious Caseof Health Insurance in China M World Bank Policy Research Working Paper WHO 2000 World Health Report 2000-Health Systems Measuring Performance Geneva WHO. Yip W. and Berman P Targeted Health Insurance in a Low Income Country and Its Impact on Access and Equity in Access Egypt s School Health Insurance Health Economics Vol Zeng Y. Vaupel J. W. Xiao Z. Zhang C. and Liu Y The Healthy Longevity Survey and the Active Life Expectancy of the Oldest Old in China Population An English Selection

14 The Role of Strategic Ambiguity in Screening Using Firms Succession Planning as an Example Wu Yingjun and Cai Hongbin Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Peking University Abstract Comparing with their American peers Chinese firms are more reluctant to implement succession planning. We think this phenomenon can be understood as an ambiguity strategy to reduce the cost of screening the types of potential successors. In an environment where the professional managerial market is underdeveloped such an ambiguity strategy can help Chinese firms reduce the danger of selecting disloyal successors. Through a simple model we find that the proportion of loyal manager has a positive effect on the likelihood of implementing succession planning and the losses from disloyal managers misbehavior have an negative one. In addition we find that the more a firm s current leader cares about the firm s long-run development the more likely the firm is to adopt the ambiguity strategy and is more reluctant to implement succession planning. Key Words Screening Strategic Ambiguity Succession Planning JEL Classification D82 D86 M51 M59 檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵 107 Medical Insurance and Medical Care Demand for the Elderly in China Liu Gordon Cai Chunguang and Li Lin Guanghua School of Management Peking University Institute for Advanced Research Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Center for Health Economic Research Peking University Abstract Using the 2005 Chinese Longitudinal Health Longevity Survey CLHLS data this study estimates a set of medical care demand functions for the elderly aged 65 and above. The major findings are as follows. First the medical insurance coverage primarily increases the intensity of medical care use when seeking care rather than the choice of seeking care in general. In the meantime the insurance coverage improves access to care for those who do need care. Second the insurance coverage also helps reduce the financial burden of illness both in terms of changes in family-paid expenditures and relative ratios to total expenditures in a range of 25% and 50% respectively. Third both urban medical insurance and the government insurance have greater impact than other insurance policies as expected. Our basic conclusion is that the national medical insurance policy does increase access to care in general with greater benefit effect on demand for necessary care indicating an efficiency improvement in allocation of resources. Therefore further developing the universal medical insurance policy is not only a core task of the state health reform but also a right effective approach for China to meet the increasing challenges of aging population. Key Words Aging Medical Insurance Medical Care Demand Health Reform JEL Classification J140 H110 I

Naveen 2006 Naveen Vancil 1987 Brickly et al Ocasio 1999 Naveen

Naveen 2006 Naveen Vancil 1987 Brickly et al Ocasio 1999 Naveen * 5576 2007 55 29% 2009 1 COO Naveen 2006 1988 1997 691 CEO 61. 1% Naveen 90% 2 3 4 * 611150 wuyingjun@ gsm. pku. edu. cn 100871 hbcai@ gsm. pku. edu. cn 1 6 2 3 4 50 54% 15 1993 2008 2006 2 20 2008 61