Naveen 2006 Naveen Vancil 1987 Brickly et al Ocasio 1999 Naveen

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1 * % COO Naveen CEO 61. 1% Naveen 90% * wuyingjun@ gsm. pku. edu. cn hbcai@ gsm. pku. edu. cn % % Zajac 1990 Sharma et al Wasserman

2 Naveen 2006 Naveen Vancil 1987 Brickly et al Ocasio 1999 Naveen

3 Cukierman & Meltzer 1986 Baliga & Sj str m 2008 Roy & Serfes 2002 Aragonès & Neeman Bernheim & Whinston 1998 BW BW BW BW 1. k H L H L prob k = H = q 0 < q < 1 q 2. e t e t C B t 1 2 C B e t 1 Aragonès & Neeman

4 < < 1 y 2 = 1 = 1 y 2 1 α > 0 β > 0 λ > 0 H L δ 4. 2 d d T V T V

5 5. Nature C B B C B TS T S TP 1. H C L B C B L - B β C B δβ L - β δβ IC-L IC-L δ 1 EU EU TS = q q λ + δq 2. H C L C B C L δβ B β L δβ > β IC-L IC-L < δ EU TP = + δ q q λ VS VP VM 1 0 C H L 112

6 H C L B prob k = H e1 = C = 1 prob k = H = B = 0 = C = B δ EU VS = q q λ + δq 2. H C L C B prob k = H = C = q prob k = H = B = 0 q q λ 0 L C q q λ 0 δβ > β IC-P IC-L IC-P - IC-L < δ IC-P λ q / 1 - q EU VP = + δ q q λ λ > q / 1 - q 3. H C L B = B L = C H C L π C 0 < π < π B = C ω 0 < ω < ω = B prob k = H = B = 0 prob k = H = C = q / q q π ρ ω π β = δωβ 1 ρ ρ λ = 0 1 L B C 2 1 ω = / δ 2 ρ = λ / 1 + λ ρ = q / q q π π = q / 1 - q λ 0 < ω < 1 < δ 0 < π < 1 λ > q / 1 - q L C B δ L B C B ω ω δ 2 q λ L = C ρ π 113

7 C 1 - π B L C π λ q 1 - π q λ EU VM = q q π π λ + δ qω q πωλ π = q / 1 - q λ ω = / δ EU VM = 2q q λ + q / λ δ y 2 = 1 < δ < δ L 1 < δ 1 λ q / 1 - q λ > q / 1 - q EU VM - EU TP = 2q q λ + q / λ - + δ q q λ = λ 1 - q - q λ δ - - / λ 3 λ > q / 1 - q - EU TP > 0 λ > / δ - 1 λ > max q / 1 - q qδ q / 1 - q < qδ q / 1 - q > 1 qδ λ > q / 1 - q < λ / δ - λ q / 1 - q < qδ λ > q / 1 - q 3 λ > max q / 1 - q q / 1 - q < λ 1 L β L 114 EU VM

8 β L L - β L λ q δ 2 1 λ 1 1 qδ λ λ > < qδ λ λ > q / 1 - q 1 λ > q / 1 - q λ 1 - q / λ 1 - q λ λ < δ λ λ λ q 1 3 λ > EU VM - EU TP / q = λ λ δ - - / λ < 0 3 q 1 - q / λ 1 - q q q q λ δ 115

9 1 3 λ > q / 1 - q EU VM - EU TP / δ = λ 1 - q - q > 0 1 λ > q / 1 - q δ λ δ λ > q / 1 - q q δ λ 1 3 λ > q / 1 - q EU VM - EU TP / = - λ 1 - q - q 1 + λ / λ < 0 1 λ > q / 1 - q λ > q / 1 - q q λ q δ λ

10 Aragonès Enriqueta and Zvika Neeman Strategic Ambiguity in Electoral Competition Journal of Theoretical Politics Baliga Sandeep and Tomas Sj str m Strategic Ambiguity and Arms Proliferation Journal of Political Economy Bernheim B. and M. Whinston Incomplete Contracts and Strategic Ambiguity American Economic Review Brickly J J. Coles and G. Jarrell Leadership Structure Separating the CEO and Chairman of the Board. Journal of Corporate Finance Cukierman Alex and Allan H. Meltzer A Theory of Ambiguity Credibility and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information Econometrica Naveen Lalitha Organizational Complexity and Succession Planning Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Ocasio William Institutionalized Action and Corporate Governance The Reliance on Rules of CEO Succession Administrative Science Quarterly Roy Jaideep and Konstantinos Serfes When Vagueness Induces Indirect Competition Strategic Incompleteness of Contracts Economic Theory Sharma Pramodita James J. Chrisman and Jess H. Chua Succession Planning as Planned Behavior Some Empirical Results Family Business Review Vancil R Passing the Baton Managing the Process of CEO Succession. Boston MA Harvard Business School Press. Wasserman Noam Founder-CEO Succession and the Paradox of Entrepreneurial Success Organization Science Zajac Edward 1990 CEO Selection Succession Compensation and Firm Performance A Theoretical Integration and Empirical Analysis Strategic Management Journal

11 The Role of Strategic Ambiguity in Screening Using Firms Succession Planning as an Example Wu Yingjun and Cai Hongbin Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Peking University Abstract Comparing with their American peers Chinese firms are more reluctant to implement succession planning. We think this phenomenon can be understood as an ambiguity strategy to reduce the cost of screening the types of potential successors. In an environment where the professional managerial market is underdeveloped such an ambiguity strategy can help Chinese firms reduce the danger of selecting disloyal successors. Through a simple model we find that the proportion of loyal manager has a positive effect on the likelihood of implementing succession planning and the losses from disloyal managers misbehavior have an negative one. In addition we find that the more a firm s current leader cares about the firm s long-run development the more likely the firm is to adopt the ambiguity strategy and is more reluctant to implement succession planning. Key Words Screening Strategic Ambiguity Succession Planning JEL Classification D82 D86 M51 M59 檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵檵 107 Medical Insurance and Medical Care Demand for the Elderly in China Liu Gordon Cai Chunguang and Li Lin Guanghua School of Management Peking University Institute for Advanced Research Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Center for Health Economic Research Peking University Abstract Using the 2005 Chinese Longitudinal Health Longevity Survey CLHLS data this study estimates a set of medical care demand functions for the elderly aged 65 and above. The major findings are as follows. First the medical insurance coverage primarily increases the intensity of medical care use when seeking care rather than the choice of seeking care in general. In the meantime the insurance coverage improves access to care for those who do need care. Second the insurance coverage also helps reduce the financial burden of illness both in terms of changes in family-paid expenditures and relative ratios to total expenditures in a range of 25% and 50% respectively. Third both urban medical insurance and the government insurance have greater impact than other insurance policies as expected. Our basic conclusion is that the national medical insurance policy does increase access to care in general with greater benefit effect on demand for necessary care indicating an efficiency improvement in allocation of resources. Therefore further developing the universal medical insurance policy is not only a core task of the state health reform but also a right effective approach for China to meet the increasing challenges of aging population. Key Words Aging Medical Insurance Medical Care Demand Health Reform JEL Classification J140 H110 I

WHO 2000 Arrow 1963 Gertler et al 1997 Buchmueller Bunker 1995 RAND Manning et al 1987 Pauly 2005 Curri

WHO 2000 Arrow 1963 Gertler et al 1997 Buchmueller Bunker 1995 RAND Manning et al 1987 Pauly 2005 Curri 2011 3 * 2005 CLHLS 22 65 10 2000 65 8811 7% 2001 Gerdtham 1993 65 65 3 5 Grant et al 1999 2 3 2005 3366 65 15000 4 1999 1. 6 65 1811 958 2008 1. 54% 15 26. 4% 2008 * 100871 gordon@ gsm. pku. edu. cn 200433