209 519041 5% 66% C924.24 A doi 10.3969/j.issn.1004-129X.2015.01.002 1004-129X2015 01-0015-11 2014-06-27 1982-1946- 1 15
1. 2 3 2 1 2 5% 4 5% 16
209 2. Bloom 5 GMM 6 1 7 8 2 15~64 9 3. Lee Mason 10 11 12 17
4. World Development Indicators WDI 15~64 251 52 1. 1960~2011 251 N μ = 1 N i = 1 x i 1 18
209 N σ = 1 N i = 1 ( x i - μ) 2 = σ μ 100% 2 3 N x i i μ σ 240 10 4% 5% 5% 1960~2011 10 10% 43 17% 1 1 43 % HUN CZE DEU HRV GBR BEL ITA AUT DNK GRD DMA 2.2742 2.5182 3.2793 3.4274 4.1299 4.2559 4.4635 4.6717 4.8295 4.8355 5.0806 UKR BRB BGR FIN EUU LVA SWE RUS BLR ROU EMU 5.2321 5.3215 5.3942 5.6095 5.7254 6.0044 6.0219 6.0384 6.1100 6.4478 6.4817 EST PRT GUY GEO LTU SVN KNA BIH POL ECS URY 6.7007 6.7470 7.0408 7.3408 7.4374 7.6579 7.7289 8.0099 8.0914 8.1383 8.1774 NOR SVK FRA VCT MNE JPN CHE BMU CHI GRC 8.3500 8.3854 8.9225 9.0881 9.1777 9.5744 9.5853 9.6413 9.6783 9.8969 43 2. 43 38 0.81 52 38 52 51.72% 95% 51.37 52.08 208 26 13 10% 5%9 52 51.55% 95% 51.14 51.96 31 5 5% 19
16 10% 208-0.53 1 2 38 % HUN DEU HRV GBR BEL ITA AUT DNK GRD UKR BRB BGR FIN 2.2742 3.2793 3.4274 4.1299 4.2559 4.4635 4.6717 4.8295 4.8355 5.2321 5.3215 5.3942 5.6095 0.7446 1.4628 0.3594 0.3994 0.2019 0.2277 1.3119 0.2455 2.1694 1.0598 2.6899 1.1835 0.5336 EUU LVA SWE RUS BLR EMU EST PRT GUY GEO LTU SVN BIH 5.7254 6.0044 6.0219 6.0384 6.1100 6.4817 6.7007 6.7470 7.0408 7.3408 7.4374 7.6579 8.0099 0.3503 0.9541 0.4275 1.1700 0.9496 0.5077 1.4150 0.5538 0.6572 0.4957 0.6056 0.6026 0.9582 POL ECS URY NOR SVK FRA VCT MNE JPN CHE CHI GRC 8.0914 8.1383 8.1774 8.3500 8.3854 8.9225 9.0881 9.1777 9.5744 9.5853 9.6783 9.8969 0.4824 0.5627 1.2500 0.3409 0.6349 0.2525 2.7153 0.9404 0.2556 0.2905 0.2710 0.5234 3. 38 1980~2010 2.66 5%9 1.94 3 1 20
209 5% 5 39 10% 31 79.49% 211 0.89 NG.μ = 0.6417 TP. - 0.3339 R 2 = 0.7985 4 0.80 TP. NG.μ 2 4. 3 31 15~64 % HUN DEU HRV GBR BEL ITA AUT DNK UKR BGR FIN EUU LVA SWE RUS BLR 2.2742 3.2793 3.4274 4.1299 4.2559 4.4635 4.6717 4.8295 5.2321 5.3942 5.6095 5.7254 6.0044 6.0219 6.0384 6.1100 15~64 μ 66.9973 66.5380 67.3882 64.6826 65.2845 66.1077 65.6028 65.6822 67.0639 67.3900 66.6099 65.6696 66.9018 64.8450 67.5584 65.9146 15~64 1.8477 3.1430 1.1989 1.7322 2.0412 2.5610 3.6616 1.8200 2.1859 1.2904 1.9294 2.2706 1.2743 1.2879 3.7440 4.5855 EMU EST PRT GEO LTU SVN POL ECS URY NOR FRA JPN CHE CHI GRC 6.4817 6.7007 6.7470 7.3408 7.4374 7.6579 8.0914 8.1383 8.1774 8.3500 8.9225 9.5744 9.5853 9.6783 9.8969 15~64 μ 65.6319 66.5021 64.6315 64.5614 65.6783 67.4195 66.0496 65.2194 62.8943 64.1005 64.1594 67.6968 66.8245 67.2636 65.9558 15~64 2.6641 1.0653 3.6100 3.8585 2.7753 3.0546 4.4647 2.7178 0.8430 1.9332 2.2919 2.4106 1.9609 2.6833 2.3249 2 21
15~64 3 3 10%31 15~64 3 2.43% 5% 8 2.25% 31 15~64 52 3 65.96% 95% 65.52 66.40 101 11 10% 9 5%8 66.04% 95% 65.28 66.79 17 5% 5 10% 12 101 15~64-0.94 AS.μ = - 0.3828 TP. + 68.4088 R 2 = 0.8757 5 0.88 15~64 AS.μ TP. 3 3 15~64 15~64 5%8 15~64 52 66.04% 95% 65.28 66.79 22
209 1 = ( - ) 6 15~64 6 4 α = 100% 7 4 GDP % GDP GDP GDP GDP α.dn. μ α.up. μ α.dn. μ α.up. μ POL 0.5346 2.8743 1.9994 HUN 1.3412 2.5203 1.6447 SVK 0.7189 3.4276 2.5527 MDA 1.4146 1.8428 0.9679 ECA 0.8948 2.1142 0.5369 BRB 1.6752 2.2694 1.3944 CZE 0.9176 3.8404 2.9651 ECS 1.6883 1.3603 0.4858 DEU 1.0003 2.0694 1.1944 RUS 1.8018 3.7694 2.8963 SVN 1.0221 4.0679 3.1935 EUU 1.9597 1.5412 0.6691 JPN 1.1342 2.0406 1.1659 4 1990~2011 2% 4 13 65.28 66.79 4 13 10%89 α.up.μ% 4 1 23
4 5 2% 10% 5 10%4 1. J. 2010 4 4-13. 2. J. 1981 1 44-49. 24
209 3. J. 2010 2 24-34 111. 4. J. 2005 6 23-29. 5David Bloom David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla. The Demographic Dividend A New Perspective on the Economic Con sequences of Population ChangeM. California RAND 2002 44-48 51-56. 6. J. 2012 2 120-130. 7. J. 2010 S1 1-2. 8. J. 2009 1 81-90. 9. J. 2008 3 5-13. 10Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason. What is the Demographic Dividend?J. Finance and Development 2006 433. 11. J. 2009 1 2-10 111. 12. J. 2013 4 21-31. A Study on Relative Stationary Population and Potential Demographic Dividend Calculation HE Lian MA Yan-chun Zhuhai College Jilin University Zhuhai Guangdong 519041 China Abstract Relative stationary population refers to the populations of some countries remain relatively sta tionary in real world. Comparing with other countries the populations of this type of countries change only a few. Their characteristics are similar to those in stationary population including natural growth rate ap proaches to 0 sex and age structure remains stable and so on. Especially the proportion of the population ages 15 to 64 approaches to 66%. As this age structure is set to be a frame of reference the potential demo graphic dividend of different countries can be calculated precisely. Empirical analysis also proves that it is workable to use relative stationary population instead of standard population in calculating potential demo graphic dividend. Key Words Relative Stationary Population Potential Demographic Dividend Stationary Population Demo graphic Dividend 25