203 2 李 琦 20 80 80 90 30 D232 C92. 2 A 003-385 203-02 - 0020-3 Study on the CPC s Population Decision Course since New Period Li Qi Abstract The CPC s population policy undertook a major strategic adjustment in the early of 980s and was on the road of population decision with Chinese characteristics from the implementation of slam the brakes to the slight adjustment of give the green light and to one child and a half policy basically stabilized in 980s the key of population factors in the relationships of population resource environment under the strategy of sustainable development in 990s and decision focus was changed to the all-round development of people including volume control in this century. Population decision process in more than 30 years shows that quantity is always the first rank problem of China s population Long and medium term development strategies of China s population changes from zero growth to negative growth and whether to relax control over two children policy adjustment must be careful. The current population policy should focus on improving population management and service policy and comprehensively resolve main population problem by comprehensive means. 30 20 70 0 ( 平均每名妇女一生所生育子 女数 ) 970 5. 7 980 2. 2 20
2. 7 70 80 970 8 980 0 0 2 50 60 000 000 800 8 2 2 98 20 800 000 3 50 000 9 6 5 瑏瑠 2050 20 980 200 20 2 2 99 6 3 3 2005 60 5 975 997 5 6 6 7 8 9 22 瑏瑠 200 77 905 995 2000 259 20 7 2 63 6 975 997 836 3 993 3 305 203 2 2
980 9 7 2 9 25 ( 国民经济计划 ) 3 979 2 8 2 997 0 3 979 6 975 997 57 3 60 905 995 259 22
7 0 5% 98 5 3 ( 即 7 号文件 ) 2 979 0 985 5% 5 2 2000 3 0% 8 98 5 5 9 98 9 0 2 3 979 8 2005 28 5 6 982 2 200 6 90 7 2008 2 8 2 9 200 60 979 6 8 203 2 23
98 2000 2 2. 5 5 2 986 5 98 2 6 988 3 25 2000 3 3 3 80 989 2 23 58 7 3 20 80 98 6 2 5 7 20 80 2000 990 8 988 25 88 80 20 22 80 99 8 990 8 9 70 7 20 70 2
20 90 80 600 90 990 989 2. 39 995 0. 55 999 9. 53 % 2000 2. 66 2 989 9 2 80 99 990 995 0 3 3 3 99 5 2 3 5 90 5 993 565 2 55 3 990 6 203 2 25
90 5 2000 6 2 7 2000 3 ( 即 8 号文件 ) 2 8 99 20 90 80 995 9 2 99 3 997 2 999 3 996 3 6 997 5 7 8 2009 96 99 99 3 23 2000 28 200 383 997 7 25 2000 3 3 627 628 2000 5 26
3 200 5 5 90 90 2009 6 2000 8 200 7 2 5 8 2003 20 9 6 2003 9 2 2003 2 2003 3 5 2003 3 20 3 3 2003 2 2 3 2006 7 3 5 07 203 2 27
200 202 2 2005 3 2005 3 3 7. 2 3. 9 2006 30 2020 200 2020 3. 6. 5 30 5 200 5 2 3. 0 7390 990 2000. 3 2030 7 0 6 2 2007 2008 5 6 2009 200 20 202 7 3 202 2 2005 850 820 2006 9 2006 2 2008 80 82 20 5 0 28
3 978 2 3 30 30 200 9 30 30 200 353 2 30 3 30 20 80 30 975 997 979 700 800 000 600 00 200 302 202 5 2 6 203 2 29
30 5 6 0 3 2030 200 2050 30 0 20 20 50 3 2 3 202 0 233 202 38 2 982 200 29 2009 9 30 200 3 8 30
2 3 2020 2000 5 6 70 7. 8 8 9 瑏瑠 瑏瑡 6 8 30 83 瑏瑠 瑏瑡 2009 9 8 2 3 5 7 9 2007 2009 3 2009 9 8 2000 2 2006 2 200 0 2000 2000 2 200 3 200 8 2007 203 2 3
30 20 80 2 20 80 0 20 30 20 80 30 5% ( 本文作者 中共中央文献研究室编审 北京 0007) ( 责任编辑 薛 承 ) 90 2 2006 8 32