(600900) ( ) 2008 07 20 14.65 ( ) 71922.41 ( ) 4.21 (%) 13.02 (%) 35.18 20% 86-755-22622741 60 40 douzy@pasc.com.cn : : 22622741 Email: douzy@pasc.com.cn 847 15% 600900 2010 10 http://www.cypc.com. 2020 ( ) 941208.55 7400 13 ( ) 490937.98 25 30 7 3 50 8 10 50 08 09 2010 EPS 0.57 0.81 0.84 EPS 0.46 0.73 0.78 10 17.3 20.9 09 19.0 07-06-16 08-06-16 72.0% 12 31 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 54.0% 36.0% ( ) 7259.5 7049.2 8729.0 8535.0 20943.7 21750.5 18.0% ( ) 3338.7 3625.5 5372.9 5392.9 10090.1 11030.9 0.0% -18.0% 06-18 09-28 01-18 05-12 9.9% 8.6% 48.2% 0.4% 89.9% 9.3% -36.0% -54.0% ( ) 0.41 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.81 0.84 ( ) 35.9 33.1 25.7 25.6 18.1 17.4 ( ) 0.19 0.24 0.30 0.32 0.40 0.42 EV/EBITDA 18.4 17.7 15.1 15.2 10.8 10.0
:... 3... 3... 3... 7... 8... 9... 9... 10... 10... 11... 12... 13... 14... 15 8 10... 15... 16... 17... 17... 17... 17... 18... 20 17.4 20.9... 20 16.7 18.9... 23 2009 19.0... 23... 24... 24... 24... 24... 24... 24 2/26
: 12 3% 15 11% 6% 8 N = 9. 8 Q H η N 9.8 9.79 Q H 61 94 71 113 61-113 96% 93% 1 20.0% 15.0% 18% 16%15% 11% 11% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 49.6% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3% 2% 3% 4% 1 2 3 4 7% 5 6 7 8 9 10 6% 11 4% 12 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 21.9% 21.0% 7.5% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 3/26
393 4510 5 10 11 4 50 10 4 06 06 8 9 40 2 m 3 3 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 04 05 06 07 08 E 04-08 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 04 05 06 07 08 E 04-08 (IPCC) 20 60 10 1.01 1.46 10 1% 145 62 4/26
4 5 10 11 4 135 139 135 2003 70 74 62 67 6 2006 10 61 65 72 77 145 156 156 2006 70 74 62 67 10 71 75 89 94 145 172 172 70 74 62 67 08 71 75 105 110 145 175 175 70 74 62 67 09 71 75 108 113 93% 96% 93% 5 VGS 71.3 ALSTOM 71.5 % 95 85 75 % 95 85 75 65 65 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 MW) MW 26 26 5/26
06 14 08 26 14 14000 / 5 26 26000 / 3 6 / 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 26 14 07 08 07 9 10 17 18 08 26 175 847 4654 847 10% 2009 2010 770 900 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 31.9 28.9 31.2 47.5 54.5 83.9 121.1 121.1 121.1 88.5 73.0 44.5 % 3.8% 3.4% 3.7% 5.6% 6.4% 9.9% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 10.4% 8.6% 5.3% / 847.3/4654 2010 2012 35 2012 980 6/26
8 / 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 2005 5 2008 7 0.2306 0.2389 0.2397 0.2550 0.2290 0.2686 0.2424 0.2862 0.2287 0.2236 0.2319 0.2327 0.2729 0.2220 0.2616 0.2354 0.2792 0.2217 0.2988 0.3111 9 20% 10% 10% 39% 20% 40% 20% 40% 41% 30% 30% 10 / 11 / 04 05 8 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.25 0.219 0.226 0.228 0.204 0.1599 0.2 0.204 0.211 0.213 0.15 0.190 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.1 0.174 0.187 0.194 0.195 0.05 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 7/26
05 12 VS / 13 VS /.07 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 600 500 400 300 200 100-100 0-200 65% 14 1 4.5 / 2007 5 8 / 2 0 2008 5000 3 0 2006 3 / 8/26
3 15 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% / (%) (%) 10% 150 170 20 1000 20 2009 5 15% 3% 5 9/26
6.944 5.4164 4.018 2007 1.45 36% 80 20 16 17 16% 4% 2% 1% 10% 67% 1.9% 5.6% 4.2% 2.8% 5.9% 7.0% 8.6% 13.7% 50.3% 100 70 80% 3 18 07 19 10 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10/26
2002 5 2 2.2 50% 60 20 2564 100% 2564 4 4201 100% 4201 549 100% 549 330 26% 86 7644 7400 2200 56% 1232 333 100% 333 2058 23% 473 4591 2038 549.3 100% 549 143.5 23.1% 33 175 40% 70 100 55% 55 300 70% 210 340 80% 272 2058 23% 473 3666 1663 796 51% 406 2058 33% 679 965 >50% >483 3819 >1568 1640 90% 1476 330 38% 125 1970 1601 1600 87.10% 1394 700 56.25% 394 2300 1787 2300 48% 1104 67 50% 34 135 50% 68 2502 1205 11/26
2010 2010 1.9 31 42 2020 2020 3 70% 2020 32800 60 80 21 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 7382 11430 19400 27100 32800 4048 7970 7700 5700 4532 7636 14400 20850 25300 3104 6764 6450 4450 2850 3794 5000 6250 7500 944 1206 1250 1250 582.1 1789.6 3367.1 5002.1 1207.5 1577.5 1635 1912 2010 2020 2000 2020 20 2.2 70 22 2010 1600 1400 5 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010E 2015E 2020E 2025E 12/26
2020 7400 25% 13 30% 10 23 2020 312 100 312 161 5160 1988 2252 100 2252 877 3894 2008 330 26% 86 21 2424 2008 870 100 870 395 4540 2017 2019 1305 100 1305 569 4360 2020 2022 1386 100 1386 640 4618 2013 2015 640 100 640 328 5125 2012 2015 213 100 213 90 4225 160 100 160 70 4375 176 100 176 79 4489 2016 7644 7400 3230 4303 24 13/26
14/26 25 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2020 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 07 145 10 60 70 7 8 9 60 70
26 847 130 980 15% 10 15 11 8 12 15% 26 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 10000 / 10000 / 50% 8 10 15/26
27 2007 % 7.1 / 10.166 11.189% 2.304 5.75 13.24 6.717 8.77% 1.564 5.28 8.25 31.100 41.69% 51.0 28.500 34.0% 28.5 2.257 22.57% 2.26 0.088 0.18% 0.1 78.82 103.35 (HK) 12.000 0.514% 12.000 5.18(RMB) 62.16 3.500 0.034% 1.122 4.81 5.40 1.900 1.592% 0.200 17.52 3.50 1.000 0.044% 0.172 5.00 0.86 0.980 0.286% 0.350 8.10 2.84 0.035 0.007% 0.034 7.20 0.24 0.083 0.53% 0.089 17.65 1.57 19.45 76.57 179.92 537.86 486 123 51 20 28 62.50% 330.4 100% 184 100% 121.2 100% 25.2 100% 60 ( 09 100% 120 48% 1.36 50% 11 30.91% 4.5 48.60% 6.1 57.97% 4.5 537.86 16/26
28.5 34 2007 10 386.5 380 178 95 50 14 75 08 2 06 07 150 2010 2012 3 4 40% 50% 7 3 30 50 10 20 8% 10% 8 10 10 15 20 7 18 17/26
10 5 5 550 550 400 550 18 52.5 945 475 20 13.19 35.6 470 2009 1 1 2008 172 2009 175 2008 2009 2010 08 09 07 8 2008 2009 2010 2007 2010 EPS 29 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 70.49 87.29 86.15 213.97 222.24 20.90 26.50 29.27 72.85 73.54 1.09 1.34 1.32 3.33 3.46 48.50 59.52 55.56 137.79 145.24 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 2.53 3.10 3.39 6.27 6.58 7.07 8.66 9.49 33.75 28.80 8.70 20.95 20.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 47.58 68.69 62.66 117.72 129.80 6.36 7.44 7.31 18.50 19.22 0.04 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 53.90 75.93 69.77 136.03 148.83 17.64 22.20 15.94 31.51 34.71 36.26 53.73 53.83 104.52 114.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.26 53.73 53.83 104.52 114.12 81.87 94.12 94.12 129.77 135.77 EPS 0.443 0.571 0.572 0.805 0.841 EPS 0.376 0.466 0.460 0.730 0.776 18/26
30 09 EPS 71.6 59.6 47.6 35.6 27.6 19.6 13.19 13.19 13.19 13.19 13.19 13.19 945.0 786.7 628.4 470.2 364.6 259.1 0.0 158.3 316.6 474.8 580.4 685.9 0.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 5.62% 5.62% 5.62% 5.62% 5.62% 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 0.00% 4.55% 4.55% 4.55% 4.55% 4.55% 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 0.00% 0.00% 6.35% 6.35% 6.35% 6.35% 0.0 0.0 76.6 234.8 340.4 445.9 0.00% 0.00% 6.43% 6.43% 6.43% 6.43% EBIT 159.8 159.8 159.8 159.8 159.8 159.8 0.0 4.6 13.6 23.8 30.6 37.3 159.8 155.2 146.2 136.0 129.2 122.5 37.5 36.3 34.0 31.5 29.8 28.1 122.4 118.9 112.1 104.5 99.4 94.3 165.8 153.8 141.8 129.8 121.8 113.8 EPS 0.738 0.773 0.791 0.805 0.817 0.829 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 78.5% 76.8% 74.8% 72.5% 70.7% 68.6% 13.8% 24.0% 34.2% 44.3% 51.1% 57.9% EPS 09 19/26
10% 2021 PE 2009 2021 PE 2021 PE 2021 PE 2021 2020 2021 2021 EPS 2021 ROE 8% 10% 2021 7500 / 70 ROE 10 2.0% 45% 2.0% 5.21% 50 60 8% 31 EPS 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 0 0 210 423 675 676 592 500 500 290 435 435 435 129.77 135.77 135.77 135.77 142.43 149.10 155.77 159.10 162.43 162.43 162.43 162.43 162.43 214.0 222.2 225.5 252.4 327.6 402.7 468.6 524.2 579.8 612.1 660.5 708.9 757.3 104.5 114.1 125.9 138.7 167.8 197.1 223.5 247.5 271.0 286.9 309.2 331.5 353.9 EPS 0.81 0.84 0.93 1.02 1.18 1.32 1.43 1.56 1.67 1.77 1.90 2.04 2.18 214.0 226.7 234.6 267.9 354.6 444.6 527.7 602.1 679.3 731.5 805.1 881.4 960.4 104.5 117.1 132.1 149.2 186.1 225.4 263.4 300.1 338.2 367.5 406.8 447.9 491.0 EPS 0.81 0.86 0.97 1.10 1.31 1.51 1.69 1.89 2.08 2.26 2.50 2.76 3.02 214.0 233.8 249.6 294.0 401.4 519.2 635.6 748.0 870.5 966.8 1097.7 1239.5 1393.2 104.5 119.8 142.2 166.8 217.7 275.8 336.2 398.6 467.2 526.4 604.3 689.7 783.1 EPS 0.81 0.88 1.05 1.23 1.53 1.85 2.16 2.51 2.88 3.24 3.72 4.25 4.82 20/26
40% 50% 2013 2016 2021 400 15 26.7 2021 162.43 2021 PE 2021 0.8 PE 15 20 6 30 17 15 20 PE 8 10 15 ROE 10 ROE 1.5 PB 15 PE PB 2 20 PE 2021 PE 2021 43.6 54.4 72.3 7082 8836 11743 32 2021 PE 15 18 20 EPS 2.18 2.18 2.18 32.7 39.2 43.6 EPS 3.02 3.02 3.02 45.3 54.4 60.5 EPS 4.82 4.82 4.82 72.3 86.8 96.4 2009 17.4 20.9 26.7 50 09 10 21/26
33 2009 12 2021 2009 43.6 15 16 17.4 18 19 20.9 21 22 23 24 25 26.7 27 9.3% 8.7% 8.0% 7.6% 7.2% 6.3% 6.3% 5.9% 5.5% 5.1% 4.7% 4.2% 4.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 54.4 11.7% 11.0% 10.0% 9.7% 9.1% 8.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.6% 6.2% 5.5% 5.4% 11.3% 10.7% 10.02% 9.7% 9.2% 8.3% 8.3% 7.8% 7.4% 7.1% 6.7% 6.1% 6.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 72.3 13.8% 13.0% 12.1% 11.7% 11.1% 10.0% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.6% 8.1% 7.5% 7.4% 14.0% 13.4% 12.7% 12.3% 11.8% 10.9% 10.9% 10.4% 10.0% 9.6% 9.3% 8.7% 8.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 16.4% 15.7% 14.8% 14.3% 13.7% 12.6% 12.6% 12.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 10.0% 9.9% 09 50% 2021 ROE 21 ROA 13 ROE 10 13 09 17.0 21.0 10 10 09 PE 24 26 09 PE 18 20 20 34 08 6 07 EPS 08EPS 09EPS 07PE 08PE 09PE 1Q08PB 27 ( ) ( ) ( ) 6.76 0.37 0.28 0.46 18.3 24.1 14.7 2.8 7.59 0.5 0.26 0.52 15.2 29.2 14.6 2.0 14.65 0.57 0.57 0.78 25.7 25.7 18.8 3.5 7.03 0.53 0.33 0.53 13.3 21.3 13.3 1.8 10.39 0.29 0.22 0.48 35.8 47.2 21.6 4.2 4.57 0.11 0.1 0.35 41.5 45.7 13.1 1.4 9.80 0.44 0.5 0.72 22.3 19.6 13.6 4.4 8.22 0.33 0.37 0.64 24.9 22.2 12.8 2.8 11.41 0.47 0.41 0.52 24.3 27.8 21.9 4.2 A 6.31 0.25 0.17 0.32 25.2 37.1 19.7 1.9 24.6 30.0 16.4 2.9 WIND PB 08 22/26
2021 20 PE 10 2009 17.4 2009 PE 22.3 2009 2021 12 11 8 10 19.0 18 20 PE 20 3 60 40 1800 1820 7000 7500 16.7 18.8 7500 35 + 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 2097.70 2097.70 2097.70 2097.70 2097.70 2097.70 2097.70 2097.70 86.8 86.8 86.8 86.8 86.8 86.8 86.8 86.8 621.94 712.94 803.93 894.93 985.92 1076.92 1167.91 1258.91 129.8 129.8 129.8 129.8 129.8 129.8 129.8 129.8 4.79 5.49 6.20 6.90 7.60 8.30 9.00 9.70 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 9.94 11.34 12.74 14.14 15.55 16.95 18.35 19.75 14.68 16.74 18.79 20.85 22.91 24.97 27.03 29.09 19.35 22.10 24.84 27.59 30.33 33.08 35.82 38.57 2009 19.0 2009 18.0 20.0 19.0 23/26
24/26
1 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 3,937.81 4,924.57 12,577.99 31,371.24 41,791.45 7,049.16 8,735.39 8,615.27 21,397.02 22,223.73 2,523.17 2,798.40 10,584.58 26,419.11 36,667.12 2,090.25 2,649.84 2,927.38 7,284.59 7,353.43 1,199.36 1,923.41 1,721.33 4,275.12 4,440.30 109.17 134.00 131.60 333.24 346.16 24.38 18.93 29.27 72.85 73.53 4,849.74 5,951.55 5,556.30 13,779.19 14,524.13 175.31 180.47 234.19 582.77 588.27 1.57 2.19 2.14 5.25 5.45 15.60 3.36 8.62 21.40 22.22 252.79 309.69 339.37 627.72 659.11 43698.08 59389.52 58115.57 147796.59 143044.64 707.20 865.54 948.50 3,374.58 2,879.60 1,324.01 6,070.73 6,677.80 7,345.58 8,080.14 870.03 2,094.77 2,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 33,474.08 42,305.18 40,422.69 129,430.19 123,938.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.67 25.25 26.73 32.46 37.44 4,758.22 6,868.90 6,266.29 11,771.64 12,979.97 8,867.31 10,988.36 10,988.36 10,988.36 10,988.36 635.52 744.12 730.77 1,850.47 1,922.24 47635.89 64314.08 70693.57 179167.83 184836.09 4.11 19.71 19.71 19.71 19.71 7,965.05 10,054.17 9,844.14 25,329.59 16,410.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5,766.47 8,053.81 7,560.78 19,647.61 10,674.61 5,389.64 7,593.30 6,977.35 13,602.40 14,882.50 916.51 484.61 526.93 1,311.23 1,323.62 1,764.12 2,220.37 1,594.33 3,150.57 3,470.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3,625.52 5,372.93 5,383.02 10,451.83 11,411.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,282.07 1,515.74 1,756.43 4,370.75 4,412.06 3,625.52 5,372.93 5,383.02 10,451.83 11,411.90 10749.00 13006.69 17006.69 55488.33 55489.90 EBITDA 7,416.13 10,207.44 9,832.92 22,475.75 23,261.61 8,500.00 6,800.00 6,800.00 30,284.00 30,284.00 EPS 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.81 0.84 2,249.00 6,206.69 10,206.69 25,204.33 25,205.90 18,714.05 23,060.85 26,850.83 80,817.92 71,900.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7,049.16 8,735.39 8,615.27 21,397.02 22,223.73 8,186.74 9,412.09 9,412.09 12,976.60 13,576.60 (%) -2.90% 23.92% -1.38% 148.36% 3.86% 14,813.90 22,762.31 22,762.31 66,213.80 74,013.80 3,615.24 5,372.48 5,383.02 10,451.83 11,411.90 5,921.20 9,078.83 11,668.34 19,159.51 25,345.50 (%) 8.28% 48.61% 0.20% 94.16% 9.19% 28,921.84 41,253.23 43,842.74 98,349.91 112,935.90 (%) 70.35% 69.67% 66.02% 65.96% 66.91% 47,635.89 64,314.08 70,693.57 179,167.83 184,836.09 (%) 51.29% 61.50% 62.48% 48.85% 51.35% ROE(%) 12.50% 13.02% 12.28% 10.63% 10.10% (%) 39.29% 35.86% 37.98% 45.11% 38.90% ( ) 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.81 0.84 4,990.99 4,923.95 7,705.84 16,388.14 16,794.49 3.53 4.38 4.66 7.58 8.32 (222.79) (12,695.77) (633.12) (95,179.78) (747.56) P/E 33.2 25.7 25.6 18.2 17.4 (2,915.48) 8,047.04 713.46 94,626.17 (5,798.91) P/B 4.15 3.34 3.15 1.93 1.76 1,852.72 275.23 7,786.19 15,834.52 10,248.01 EV/EBITDA 17.7 15.1 15.2 10.5 9.7 25/26
6 20% 6 10% 20% 6 10% 6 10% 2008 518029 4008866338 0755 82449257