600432 1017 sunzh@xyzq.com.cn 2007 04 12 :605.00 20 55-65 07 2007 6000 A 3 6 16.61 15000 17% 3.3 08 30% 43.75 12.70/45.95 3,495.22 38.77 10.36 2006Q4 4.22 26.72 57.55 22,800/11,211 % 294 244 194 144 94 294 244 194 144 94 15-20 20 55-60 55-65 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 145,299 293,747 337,623 444,520 % 102.17% 14.94% 31.66% 50,253 112,546 136,154 155,612 % 123.96% 20.98% 14.29% 25725 63936 80388 86538 % 148.53% 25.73% 7.65% % 34.59% 38.31% 40.33% 35.01% % 17.71% 21.77% 23.81% 19.47% 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 0.893 2.220 2.791 3.005 0.888 2.718 3.375 3.723 3.343 9.532 12.124 14.928 % 26.72% 23.29% 23.02% 20.13% % 0.57% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% % 57.55% 42.72% 41.15% 41.96% P/E 48.98 19.71 15.67 14.56 P/B 13.09 4.59 3.61 2.93
T1...- 3-2...- 3-2.1...- 3-2.2...- 5-2.3...- 7-3...- 8-3.1...- 8-3.2...- 9-4...- 10-4.1...- 10-4.2...- 11-5...- 11-5.1...- 11-5.2...- 12-5.3...- 12-6...- 12-7...- 13-8...- 14-8.1 DCF...- 14-8.2...- 15-8.3...- 15-9...- 15-1...- 8-2...- 9-3...- 11-4...- 13-5 - 13-6...- 13-7...- 14-8...- 14-9...- 15-1...- 3-22005...- 4-3...- 4-4...- 5-52001...- 5-6...- 6-7...- 8-8...- 9-9...- 9-10...- 10 - :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 2 -
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2006 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 4 -
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20 27 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 6 -
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2004 10 6 10 4000 20000 2000 60% 2000 55% 5000 10000 2003 2004 50% :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 8 -
2003 2004 2005 2006 42.31 78.72 13.89 39.94 68.08 114.89 19.73 49.49 74.93 139.46 15.53 58.37 26.25 31.59 33.09 35.32 11.48 22.82 22.43 26.72 0.31 0.74 0.85 1.13 06 06 06 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 9 -
60% 10 2006 43.63% 30 10 70%2006 354 72 20003000 2006 2006 2006 35% :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 10 -
06 1.08 5 2004 07 2000 2007 6000 A 3 1 84.585 2 4.74 3 5000 6 16.61 10 20 15000 5000 1.5 1.5 50% 1.70% 3.2 0.60% 2.8 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 11 -
6.0 0.50% 5.87 0.44% 4.74 16.61 85% 20% 6.73 08 3.3 30% 2002 2006 1 15000 56000 15000 10000 5000 2008 2.65 CVMR 2000 / 1000 580 80 20 200 100 20 1 07 600 2003 04 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 12 -
2003 2004 2005 2006 0.17 0.8447 0.9314 1.1216 2.66 3.2 3.77 4.19 2.05 0.93 0.72 0.92 1.55 0.75 0.57 0.69 45.3 52.74 57.39 57.55 Wind 07 07 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2300 2500 2800 3000 1500 1500 1500 1500 500 500 1300 1500 3800 4500 5600 6500 7500 8000 10000 13000 51% 56% 56% 50% 2009 09 30% 3.3 1 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 21000 22000 25000 30000 35447.86 68000 60000 50000 74439.72 149600 150000 150000 26.67 100.97 0.27 0.00 43.63 45 43 38 1600 1600 2000 4600 172775.63 299145 256410 213675 27644.1 47863.2 51282 98290.5 71.1 73.14 7.14 91.67 22.66 30.00 35.00 30.00 1000 1100 1200 1300 66124 132248 110000 91300 6612.4 14547.28 13200 11869-9.58 120.00-9.26-10.08 9.79 30.00 35.00 20.00 1500 2000 2200 2500 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 13 -
51793.5 85000 75000 65000 7769.03 17000 16500 16250 123.4 118.82-2.94-1.52 34.95 40.00 35.00 25.00 600 1200 2000 310000 273500 250000 18600 32820 50000 76.45 52.35 35.00 40.00 40.00 1.23 1.25 1.25 1.25 10.34 10.50 10.50 10.50 3.14 1.49 0.89 0.19 7.23 8 8 8 145,299.71 293,747.12 337,623.66 444,520.88 102.17% 14.94% 31.66% 50,253.50 112,546.02 136,154.63 155,612.68 123.96% 20.98% 14.29% 25725.88 63936.43 80388.05 86538.95 148.53% 25.73% 7.65% 1.128 2.220 2.791 3.005 4.223 9.532 12.124 14.928 38.77 19.71 15.67 14.56 10.36 4.59 3.61 2.93 DCF 66 6.00% 10.00% 7.42% 2.50% 1899015.69 65.94 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 14 -
07 08 09 07 08 09 22800 9144 2.22 2.79 3.00 19.71 15.67 14.56 8595 4560 1.22 2.32 2.13 34.14 18 19.55 4 11 55-65 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 15 -
2007 2008 2009 63936.43 80388.05 86538.95 7529.74 9539.59 11444.51 4426.33 661.15 1610.78 4453.16 3776.48 3399.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 4460.68 5608.47 6037.60-6634.03-2824.88-1873.08 78276.86 97213.52 107220.35-30000.00-30000.00-30000.00 119606.84-9536.48-9159.27 167883.70 57677.04 68061.09 46864.43 214748.13 272425.16 214748.13 272425.16 340486.25 2006 2007 2008 2009 145299.71 293747.12 337623.66 444520.88 93972.74 179056.74 199004.38 285663.20 1073.48 2144.35 2464.65 3245.00 50253.50 112546.02 136154.63 155612.68 1305.39 1305.39 1305.39 1305.39 1786.55 3671.84 4220.30 5556.51 15030.85 30843.45 35450.48 46674.69 4555.16 4453.16 3776.48 3399.27 30186.33 74882.97 94012.76 101287.60-68.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 175.19 175.19 175.19 52.56 43.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 713.48 713.48 713.48 713.48 29623.50 74344.68 93474.48 100626.68 2142.74 5947.57 7477.96 8050.13 1754.88 4460.68 5608.47 6037.60 25725.88 63936.43 80388.05 86538.95 C 2006 2007 2008 2009 46864.43 214748.13 272425.16 340486.25 18000.02 34380.48 39515.84 52027.21 1571.52 3042.09 3496.49 4603.53 16365.13 34270.80 54171.24 82737.56 31481.69 53962.31 70878.27 93916.67 122743.58 358030.47 460746.26 600444.31 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 108164.02 142827.29 175158.92 206324.74 42367.55 49897.29 59436.87 70881.38 65796.48 92930.00 115722.05 135443.36 39326.53 34663.26 32331.63 31165.82 104941.91 127307.61 147703.36 166196.52 8216.67 8216.67 8216.67 8216.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8216.67 8216.67 8216.67 8216.67 236902.16 494554.75 617666.29 775857.50 87300.00 87300.00 87300.00 87300.00 2000.00 7162.27 5970.13 8569.90 16528.18 31886.82 35439.14 50871.53 21470.46 56720.12 97234.96 150577.46 5312.57 4731.07 4731.07 4731.07 148.33 148.33 148.33 148.33 132859.25 208814.74 251689.76 323064.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3470.00 2470.00 2470.00 2470.00 136329.25 211284.74 254159.76 325534.42 4280.46 8741.14 14349.61 20387.21 22800.00 28800.00 28800.00 28800.00 21210.16 135210.16 135210.16 135210.16 9760.59 16774.42 25592.99 35086.31 42521.69 93744.29 159553.77 230839.40 96292.45 274528.87 349156.92 429935.87 236902.16 494554.75 617666.29 775857.50 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 16 -
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