2013 3 2 277 Economic Issues in China Mar. 2013 No. 2 310027 本文使用 1998 2009 年中国城镇住户调查数据, 从教育回报率和就业率两个角度, 分析了高校扩招后劳动力市场的变化实证结果表明 : 扩招后城镇劳动者教育回报率仍保持增长, 并且高等教育的回报率显著高于非高等教育的回报率, 高等教育仍是一种有效率的人力资本投资 ; 在控制了宏观经济对就业的影响后, 大学生劳动者供给的增加仍有利于大学生和非大学生就业率的提升, 这表明高校扩招带来的人力资本提高对就业有着促进作用 高校扩招 ; 劳动力市场 ; 教育回报率 ; 就业率 一 引 言 1999 21 2010 15% 1999 2009 4 22 1978 1999 1 2006 2010 9% 22008 6. 91% 1 15% 22% 23% GDP 15% 2013-02-21 70933001 1 2009 15 16 6. 9% 3
19% 28% 39% 25% 1 http/ /www. moe. edu. cn 2 GDP 2008 http/ /data. worldbank. org 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010 4
二 文献综述 2007 2002 / 0. 13 0. 42 0. 64 0. 86 136% Zhang et al. 2005 1988 2001 1995 1997 1988 12. 2% 17. 8% 2009 1991 2006 U 1993 2000 2000 2004 2004 2006 2012 2003 2007 2005 2007 2012 2003 2005 2007 2009 78. 8% 260. 8% 56% 2011 1996 2010 21. 5% 2000 2005 1% 2010 2. 19% 5. 11% 2010-0. 1046 12 1998 2009 三 数据和变量 Urban Household Survey 5
226 1998 2009 12 CPI 2009 3 1998 2009 1998 2009 3 1998 2009 12. 5% 9. 7% 2003 1 1998 1. 3 2009 1. 8 1998 2009 20 = = 4 1 6 1999 2003 7 2003
2003 90% 1998 83. 1% 2009 67. 0% 4 1998 2009 1998 2009 四 实证模型和结果分析 1. Zhang et al. 2005 LnW i = β 0 + β sch Sch i + β 1 Exp i + β 2 Exp 2 i + β 3 Female i + β 4 Region i + ε i 1 LnW i = β 0 + β col Col i + β 1 Exp i + β 2 Exp 2 i + β 3 Female i + β 4 Region i + μ i 2 1 Sch i i β sch 2 Col i i 1 0 β col LnW i i 1 Exp i Exp 2 i i Female i Region i 5 6 1998 2009 A B 5 1998 6. 7% 2009 10. 3% 2003 9. 9% 1. 0% 1 CPI 2009 7
5 1998 2009 A 6 1998 2009 B 1 1998 3. 6% 2009 7. 0% 2003 11. 5% 1 6 12 8
3. 9% 1998 34. 4% 2009 54. 5% 6 2003 8. 7% 2. 0% 1998 16. 0% 35. 4% 2003 11. 0% 6. 3% 2003 1 2. E_col c t = β 0 + β 1 Col_share c t + β 2 Z c t + β 3 year t + ε k 3 E_non c t = β 0 + β 1 Col_share c t + β 2 Z c t + β 3 year t + ε k 4 3 4E_col c t E_non c t c t Col_share c t k Z c t GDP 2 year t 1998 2009 1 1 1998 2009 0. 277 *** 0. 178 *** 0. 190 *** 0. 179 *** 4. 74 3. 30 2. 68 2. 64 GDP 1. 163 *** 0. 878 ** 2. 103 *** 2. 095 *** 3. 04 2. 35 4. 53 4. 56-0. 985-0. 488 3. 608 *** 2. 833 *** -1. 17-0. 63 3. 53 2. 90 GDP 0. 0141 0. 0121 0. 0824 *** 0. 0544 * 0. 57 0. 52 2. 73 1. 87 80. 61 *** 84. 85 *** 58. 33 *** 59. 92 *** 18. 26 19. 82 11. 07 11. 37 233 233 * ***** 10% 5% 1% t 1 2009 2012 1 2 2 1998 2009 GDP 1990 GDP 9
1 1% 0. 277% 0. 178% 1 0. 190% 0. 179% 2008 1 GDP Moretti2004 1% 0. 6% ~ 0. 7% 2012 1% 0. 041% GDP 2. 103>1. 163 2. 095>0. 878 GDP GDP 1% 3. 608% 2. 833% 五 结 论 1 10
1 MorettiE. 2004. Workers' educationspilloversand productivityevidence from plant-level production functions J. American Economic Review943 656-690 2 Zhang JZhao YPark Aet al. 2005. Economic returns to schooling in urban China1988 to 2001 J. Journal of Comparative Economics334 730-752. 3. 2005. J. 446-56. 4. 2009. J. 244-54. 5. 2009. 2007 J. 188-95. 6. 2012. J. 1047-66. 7. 2007. J. 6119-130. 8. 2011. J. 969-74. 9. 2006. J. 332-34. 10. 2005. J. 425-30. 11. 2010. J. 993-108. 12. 2011. J. 31187-1208. 13. 2008. J. 547-57. 14. 2012. J. 327-34. Changes in Economic Return to Schooling and Employment Rate with the Expansion of Higher Education Yao XianguoFang XinZhang Haifeng Zhejiang UniversityHang zhou310027 AbstractFrom the aspect of economic return to schooling and employment rate this article tries to analyze changes in labor market with the expansion of higher educationusing data from the Urban Household Survey from 1998 to 2009. The empirical results suggesteconomic return to schooling in urban china keeps its increasing stateand economic return to college is significantly higher than education below college thus higher education still remains an efficient human capital investmentmoreover increased labor supply of higher education is still helpful to employment rates of college labor and non-college labor controlling the impact of higher education on employment indicates that the improvement of human capital with the expansion of higher education has promoted employment. Key wordsexpansion of higher educationlabor marketeconomic return to educationemployment rate 责任编辑 : 靳涛 11