14 1 2014 10 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.14No.1 October2014 * ; BeckerandTomes(1979) 2013 0.473 XieandZhou (2014) 0.53 0.55 ; * : 5 100871; :15801363830;E-mail:zhouguangsu@126.com (Kxjc-jc-2011003) (71103009)
66 ( ) 14 ( 2005 1 ; ChenandCowel2013; 2014 2 ) Dengetal.(2013) 2002 0.53 BeckerandTomes(1979) ( ) BeckerandTomes(1985) ( ) 3 MayerandLopoo (2008) (CHARLS)2011 (CGSS)2008 1 2005 2 2 : 2014 5 3 (Brown andpark2002;uchidaetal.2009;wang2012)
1 : 67 14 1 16% : ; ; ; ( 2011 4 ) BeckerandTomes(1979) BeckerandTomes(1985) (first-besteficient) (Behr- manandtaubman1985;solon1992;bjorklundandjanti1997;corak and Heisz1999;ChadwickandSolon2002;Piraino2007;Gongetal. 2012;Dengetal.2013; ) Currieand Moreti (2003) 20 PlugandVijverberg (2003) 4 2011
68 ( ) 14 55% 60% Oreopoulosetal.(2006) 2 4 LucasandKerr (2013) Zhong (2013) ; ; MengandZhao (2013) 0.27 0.38 35 53 MayerandLopoo (2008) PSID Chetyetal.(2014) : Pikety (2000) Holmlundetal.(2011) OLS (2005) 1988 1995 SatoandLi (2008)
1 : 69 16 18 Fanetal.(2013) YuanandChen (2013) 1988 2005 60% GoleyandKong (2013) 1941 1990 ChenandCowel (2013) CHNS Cheung (2014) 5 0.879 ( Beckerand Tomes1979; Muligan1997) ( ) : 5 D.Cheung : 2014 3 52 65
70 ( ) 14 ( ) ( ) ; : ( ) 6 MayerandLopoo (2008) 6 Solon(2004)
1 : 71 : ( ) (CHARLS) CHARLS 45 CHARLS / PPS 2011 150 450 1 1.7 CHARLS 45 1 PanelA GDP 1 PanelA:CHARLS2011 17996 7.91 4.03 14216 5.70 3.88 14545 9.41 2.19 20230 9.36 1.89 18199 0.08 0.27 18199 38.11 9.51 18199 1542.60 770.66 14207 64.64 9.45 14207 4267.04 1240.05 20921 0.21 0.41 18199 0.46 0.50 GDP 3910 0.017 0.011 GDP 3962 0.49 0.50
72 ( ) 14 PanelB:CGSS2008 ( ) 5849 9.04 4.06 5695 5.44 5.02 14 5860 0.27 0.44 14 1/3 5860 0.34 0.47 14 100 2929 0.13 0.34 5860 43.77 13.75 5860 2104.35 1272.57 5676 73.61 15.63 5676 5663.26 2381.98 5860 0.57 0.50 5860 0.48 0.50 : 7.6% 77.4% (CGSS) 4 28 1 2008 10 12 2008 1 PanelB CHARLS2011 8% GDP 1.7% CGSS2008 CHARLS2011 CHARLS 2011 (Gongetal.2012; ) ( ) (bindingcreditconstraint) 14
1 : 73 1. 7 CHARLS2011 ( ) 2 2 : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.3330 *** (0.007) 0.3222 *** (0.008) 0.2166 *** (0.007) 0.0439 *** (0.017) 0.0403 ** (0.017) 0.0319 * (0.019) 9.3677 *** (0.120) 9.2090 *** (0.123) 7.2440 *** (0.148) 0.3750 * (0.195) 0.4446 ** (0.204) 0.4835 ** (0.213) -0.3081 *** (0.014) -0.3023 *** (0.014) -0.2510 *** (0.016) -0.0187 (0.020) -0.0106 (0.021) -0.0147 (0.021) -0.0435 * (0.026) 0.0001 (0.000) -0.1906 *** (0.043) 0.0016 *** (0.000) -0.1103 *** (0.023) 0.0007 ** (0.000) -0.1769 *** (0.038) 0.0013 *** (0.000) 2.7622 *** (0.064) 1.1042 *** (0.047) 0.1651 *** (0.041) 0.1189 *** (0.041) -0.0023 *** -0.0017 *** (0.001) (0.001) -0.1176 * (0.068) 0.0010 * (0.001) -0.1081 (0.068) 0.0009 * (0.001) 0.5417 *** (0.090) 0.1302 * (0.075) dummy 14049 14032 14032 1464 1464 1464 R 0.393 0.399 0.506 0.009 0.028 0.074 : ; *** ** * p 0.01 0.05 0.1 7 1999 5 0.3% 51 3% 340 20% 7
74 ( ) 14 (1) (3) (1) (2) (3) (3) 1 0 0.25 ( ) 0 (4) (6) 0.56% 3 2 (4) (6) (6) 0.37 3 0.1617 *** (0.014) 0.8258 (0.539) -0.0741 (0.053) : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.1974 *** (0.016) 0.7808 (0.623) -0.0642 (0.061) 0.1593 *** (0.017) 0.6056 (0.631) -0.0624 (0.061) 0.4335 *** (0.145) 3.1117 * (1.667) -0.3441 ** (0.152) 0.5080 ** (0.202) 4.3837 * (2.297) -0.4002 * (0.208) 0.4044 ** (0.197) 4.1341 * (2.217) -0.3662 * (0.201)
1 : 75 ( ) : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.2384 *** (0.025) 0.2318 *** (0.026) 0.9820 *** (0.120) 0.9376 *** (0.118) -0.0028 *** (0.000) -0.0028 *** (0.000) -0.0114 *** -0.0109 *** (0.001) (0.001) 0.0405 (0.034) 0.0482 (0.034) -0.3882 *** -0.3970 *** (0.138) (0.143) -0.0003 (0.000) -0.0004 (0.000) 0.0027 *** (0.001) 0.0027 *** (0.001) 0.2592 *** (0.056) 0.6352 *** (0.220) -0.0776 ** (0.039) -0.0989 (0.143) dummy 14048 11259 11259 1362 1202 1202 R 0.018 0.053 0.075 0.017 0.192 0.247 : ; *** ** * p 0.01 0.05 0.1 2. 14 CGSS2008 14 CGSS2008 : 14 1 0; 14 1/3 1 14 1/3 0; 14 100 1 14 100 0 1 4 (1) (3) 14 0.3 (4) (6) 14 1/3 14 (7) (9)
76 ( ) 14!! "!! ""# "## "$# "!# "%# "&# " # "(# ")# *+!%( """ "*+*""# *+!** """ "*+*"## *+$&& """ "*+*"## *+!&"* """ "*+*""# *+!#$% """ "*+*"## *+#() """ "*+*"## *+! *" """ "*+*"$# *+!$(* """ "*+*"&# *+$*## """ "*+*"%# -*+* $ """ "! "*+*"&# -*+*% $ """ "*+*"&# -*+*%% """ "*+*"&# "! "$$ -*+**(% "*+*" # -*+**$" "*+*" # *+*"($ "*+*"%# -*+* %! "" "! "*+*$*# "** -*+*%(" " "*+*$*# -*+**(( "*+*#)# "! #+!#* """ "*+"%"# #+$) """ "*+"%$# "+)!( """ "*+"% # "! "+*%!& """ "$$ "*+"%$# "+***! """ "*+"%"# *+! )( """ "*+"!*# "! "** "+)!"& """ "*+$!$# "+! & """ "*+$$ # *+)#)) """ "*+$### *+*#$$ "*+*$"# *+**! "*+*#)# *+*!!( "*+*$## *+*"#( "*+*#(# *+*%)# "*+*!$# *+*$)! "*+*$)# -*+**" """ -*+**" """ -*+**"" """ -*+**"" """ -*+**"# """ -*+**"# """ -*+*#(" "*+*$!# *+**$$ "*+*$## -*+*"&$ "*+*$%# *+**(# "*+*$"# -*+*$%* "*+*!%# -*+**## "*+*!*# *+***$ *+***" *+***$ *+***" *+***! *+***" #+$&%* """ #+!*$" """ "*+*()# "*+"#&# "+##*& """ "+##!) """ "+"% " """ "*+*(*# "*+* # "*+"*(#./001./001./001 %&(! %%#$ %%#$ %&(! %%#$ %%#$ #(!" # &# # &#! *+$)$ *+!"# *+!&%! *+$&! *+$(* *+%"! *+$&# *+$ % *+%"!!! % """ & "" " " *+*"&*+*% *+"
1 : 77 14 100 100 14 : ( ) CHARLS2011 7 12 GDP 1993 20 30 20 30 5 (1) (3) GDP (1) (2) (3) dummy GDP (1.1 ) 0.04 16% 8 Shi (2012) 8 5 (1) 0.3194-3.7657 0.017=0.2554; 0.011 3.7657=0.0414; 0.0414/0.2554=16.22%
78 ( ) 14 5 : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.3194 *** 0.3168 *** (0.025) (0.025) -3.7657 *** -3.7557 *** (1.233) (1.233) GDP GDP -5.3523 (7.449) -3.3503 (7.543) 0.3915 (0.315) -0.0066 (0.006) 0.2298 ** (0.099) -0.0021 ** (0.001) 0.2109 *** (0.026) -2.9946 ** (1.250) 14.0641 (23.803) 0.3364 (0.301) -0.0067 (0.006) 0.0976 (0.090) -0.0010 (0.001) 3.4048 *** (0.135) 0.4245 *** (0.089) 0.2953 *** 0.2944 *** 0.2054 *** (0.020) (0.020) (0.019) -0.0645 ** (0.027) 0.0558 (0.209) -0.0669 ** -0.0861 *** (0.027) (0.025) 0.1078 (0.210) 0.4717 (0.315) -0.0081 (0.006) 0.2730 *** (0.100) -0.0024 *** (0.001) 0.6370 (0.394) 0.3899 (0.286) -0.0077 (0.006) 0.1015 (0.090) -0.0010 (0.001) 3.3989 *** (0.133) 0.4219 *** (0.088) dummy dummy 3603 3600 3600 3651 3648 3648 R 0.108 0.111 0.368 R 0.102 0.107 0.371 : ; *** ** * p 0.01 0.05 0.1 50% (4) (6) 5 : 6
1 : 79 95% 1 1 30% 6 (1) 0.2592 *** (0.028) -0.0752 ** (0.038) 0.1130 (0.271) (2) : (3) (4) 0.3051 *** (0.028) -0.0492 (0.040) 0.0862 (0.327) 0.2500 *** (0.030) -0.0785 ** (0.038) 0.1513 (0.275) 0.3134 *** (0.028) -0.0527 (0.040) 0.1852 (0.327) (5) 0.2048 *** (0.029) -0.1019 *** (0.037) 0.8159 (0.550) (6) 0.2038 *** (0.028) -0.0793 ** (0.038) 0.5555 (0.570) dummy 1905 1746 1902 1746 1902 1746 R 0.077 0.105 0.082 0.114 0.341 0.421 : ; *** ** * p 0.01 0.05 0.1 1 : 5 (6)
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