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1 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.12No.4 July2013 黄新飞舒元郑华懋 * 摘要 : % 关键词 一 引 言 Young (2000) Quarterly Journal of Economics : * ; ; : ; : ; huangxf3@mail.sysu.edu.cn ( ) (09YJC790271) ( ) (10WYXM062) (10pywk11) (10wkjc05)

2 1370 ( ) ; ; EngelandRogers (1996) EngelandRogers (1996) EngelandRogers EngelandRogers (2001) EngelandRogers n n (n-1)/2 (heterogeneityefect) : ( )16 ( )9 1 Pars- leyand Wei (2001) 1 16 ; 9

3 4 : 1371 二 文献综述 Mc- Calum (1995) 22 McCalum Wolf(2000) 1993 HeliwelandVer- dier(2000) Heliwel (2002) McCalum (1995) 1996 McCalum (1995) ( ) Wei (1996) ( ) ( ) OECD OECD 2.5 Headand Mayer (2000) Wei (1996) Feenstra (2002) Andersonand Van Wincoop (2003) CES McCalum

4 1372 ( ) 12 44% Hanson (2005) Samuelson EngelandRogers ( ) Parsleyand Wei (2001) GorodnichenkoandTesar (2009) EngelandRogers (1996) Parsleyand Wei (2001) Young (2000) Poncet (2003) Naughton (1999) Poncet (2003) Naughton (1999) ( 1992 ) Poncet (2005) GDP 2 : (McCalum1995;Wolf2000)

5 4 : 1373 (2006) (2007) (2005) Barro 45.7% (2010) Fanand Wei (2006) (2006) (2009) 4 6 (2010) LLC

6 1374 ( ) 12 三 基本模型与异质效应 ( ) (thelawofoneprice) t i k P k it k i j 3 T k ij Qk ijt=p k/ it P k jt Qk ijt T k ; ij Q k jit=p k/ jt P k it = 1 T k : ij Q k ijt 1 T k ij Q k ijt T k ij. (1) (1) :-t k ij q k ij t k ij q k ij [-t k ij t k ] ij σ (q k ) ijt tk Gorodnichenkoand ij Tesar (2009) q k [ ij -t k ij t k ] ij T k : ij T k ij =exp[c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + φ k +αi +αj +εk ij ] ( 2) dis ij i j ;Border ij φ k αi αj k i j ;ε ijt k q k σ (q k ) ijt tk ( ij 2) q k ij (3) : σ(q k ) ijt t k ij =c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + φ k +αi +αj +εk ijt. (3) d * [exp( β 2/ β 1)-1] (Parsleyand Wei2001) 4 3 ( ) 4 β 2 β 1 ( ) Engeland Rogers (1996) β 2 d d β 1lnd = β 2 d =exp( β 2/ β 1) EngelandRogers(1996) d Parsleyand Wei (2001) : Z d Z β 1ln (d+z)=β 1ln (d)+β 2 Z=d * [exp( β 2/ β 1)-1] Parsleyand Wei(2001) Parsleyand Wei(2001)

7 4 : 1375 ( ) (3) Gorod- nichenkoandtesar (2009) (4) : 25 σij =βborder ij +μ ccc + μ zzz + αsd s. (4) s=1 CC ZZ Border D s S=i S=j D s= (4) : CC ij =- 1 2 Borderij D 2 s (5) s=1 ZZ ij =- 1 2 Borderij D 2 s (6) s=17 EngelandRogers (1996) (5) (6) (4) (7) : σij = [ β- 1 2 ( μ c + μ ] z N ) Border ij + s=k+1 k 1 2 μc +α ( ) s D s μz +α s=1 ( ) s D s. (7) Border ( ) 1 2 ( μ c+ μ ) z : μ c=μ z EngelandRogers (1996) 5 ZZ : 16 σij= ( β +αc +αz)border ij + ( μ c +2αC)CC ij + ( μ z +2αZ)ZZ ij + s=1 25 αsd C s+ S=17 α Z sd 5 μ Z<β<μ C β- 1 2 ( μ c+ μ z )

8 1376 ( ) =b CZBorder ij +b CCCC ij +b ZZZZ ij + α sd C s + α sd Z s. (8) s=1 S=17 s α c s=αs-αc ; s α c s=αs-αc S=1 αc s =0 S=17 αz s =0CC ZZ CZ μ c μ (4) z ZZ (9) ZZ : σ(q k ) ijt =c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + β 3ZZ + φ k +αi +αj +εk ij. (9) Border ZZ (9) 四 中国城市价格差异波动的测算 ( ) EngelandRogers (1996) Parsleyand Wei ( ) σ(q k ) ijt σ(δq k )( ijt ) (9) EngelandRogers (1996) Parsleyand Wei Engeland Rogers (1996) k i j P k/ it Pjt k Parsleyand Wei i j t i j EngelandRogers (1996) 6 (2006) EngelandRogers(1996) (2007)

9 4 : 1377 Parsleyand Wei Parsleyand Wei Parsleyand Wei σ (Δq k ) 7 : ijt ΔQ k ijt = ln(p k it / P k jt ) -ln(p k it-1 / P k jt-1 ) = ln(p k it / P k it-1 ) -ln(p k jt / P k jt-1 ). ΔQ ijt k (3) φ k k ΔQ ijt k 8 (2006) ΔQ ijt k φ k ε ijt k φ k k ε k ijt i j ΔQ ijt k ΔQ k : ΔQ k ijt - ΔQ k =φ k- φ k+εk ijt-ε k ijt Δq k ijt=ε k ijt-ε k ijt= ΔQ k ijt - ΔQ k Δq ijt k σ (Δq k ) ijt : σ(δqijt)=c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + β 3ZZij +αi +αj +εijt. (10) ( ) EngelandRogers(1996) Parsleyand Wei( ) σ(q ijt k ) σ(δq ijt k ) 8 i j : ; i j ( i ) ( 2006)

10 1378 ( ) 12 ( ) : 1 : % / ( )

11 4 : ; 五 实证研究 ( ) (11) ; Parsleyand Wei (2001) Parsleyand Wei (2001) (12) ; (11) (12)

12 1380 ( ) 12 σ(δqijt)=c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + β 3ZZij +αi +αj +εijt (11) σ(δqijt)=c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + β3zzij +Trend +Trend W ij +αi +αj +εijt (12) Ln (dis) (Border) (ZZ) (Trend)W ij Border Ln (dis) : (1) (dis) GCD (greatcircledistance) GCD=R arccos(cosαcosβcos c + sinαsinβ ) R 6371 α β c (htp:// Cn/shujubase/3city.htm) (2) (Border) : 1 0; 1 0; 1 0 (3) (ZZ) ZZ 1 0 (4) (Trend) Parsleyand Wei (2001) (5) (State) (Gov) Border Border GDP

13 4 : ( ) σ(δq) Ln(dis) State Gov : (11) σ(δqijt) ; Parsleyand Wei (2001) Trend ; (State) (Gov) ( ) 4 σ(δqijt) ZZ 10% t White 4 1: σ(δq) 2: 3 : 4: C (8.86) *** 1.13 (134.43) *** (11.16) *** (13.52) *** Ln(dis) (1.86) * (2.15) ** (1.67) * (2.34) *** Border (4.14) *** (2.15) (3.23) *** (4.17) *** ZZ (7.69) *** BorderEffect(km) AdjR F-statistic D -W : *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; t Ln (dis) 1%

14 1382 ( ) Ln (dis) Border Border β 1= β 2= d=287.9 d * [exp( β 2/ β 1)-1]=10710 Border 0 Gorodnichenkoand Tesar (2009) ZZ 144 ( ) d= % : ( ) Parsleyand Wei (2001) Parsleyand Wei (2001) ( ZZ ) Trend Trend : Trend Border Trend Ln (dis) Border 0 12 GorodnichenkoandTesar(2009) 13 Parsley Wei(2001) ZZ Trend Border ZZ

15 4 : C σ(δq) (13.42) *** (11.91) *** (7.62) *** Ln(dis) Border (1.77) * (2.56) ** (1.90) * (2.29) ** (3.60) *** (4.07) *** Trend (-6.65) *** (-6.65) *** (-3.43) *** Trend Border (-3.81) *** (-3.72) *** Trend Ln(dis) (2.34) ** AdjR F-statistic D -W : *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; t Trend 1 Trend Border 0.2% 1% t Parsleyand Wei(2001) 0.4% Trend Border Ln (dis) ( ) (State) (Gov) State Gov 10 9 Trend Trend : Trend Border Trend Ln (dis) 6 Border ZZ Trend State 8 Gov State Gov 9 10 State Gov

16 1384 ( ) 12 6 σ(δq) C (10.76) *** (11.61) *** (5.29) *** Ln(dis) (2.79) *** (2.24) *** (1.64) * Border (2.66) *** (4.11) *** (6.63) *** ZZ (6.8) *** (3.71) *** (4.41) *** Trend Trend Border (-7.22) *** (-4.74) *** Trend Ln(dis) (1.76) * State (1.99) ** (1.29) (1.23) Gov (1.99) ** (1.67) * BorderEffect(km) AdjR F-statistic D -W : *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; t 六 小结与进一步的研究方向 ( )25 : % : 25

17 4 : 1385 参考文献 [1] AndersonJ.andE.van Wincoop GravitywithGravitas:ASolutiontotheBorderPuzzle American Economic Review [2] EngelC.andJ.Rogers How WideIstheBorder American Economic Review [3] EngelC.andJ.Rogers RelativePriceVolatility:WhatRoleDoestheBorderPlay Interna- tionalfinance Discussion Paper1998. [4] EngelC.andJ.Rogers Deviationfrom PurchasingPowerParity:Causesand WelfareCosts Journalof InternationalEconomics [5] FanC.andX.Wei TheLawofOnePrice:EvidencefromtheTransitionalEconomyofChina The Review of Economicsand Statistics200688(4) [6] GorodnichenkoY.andL.Tesar BorderEfectorCountryEfect SeatleMayNotBeSoFar from Vancouverafteral American EconomicJournal:Macroeconomics [7] : [8] HansonG. MarketPotentialIncreasingReturnsandGeographicConcentration Journalof InternationalEconomics [9] HeadK.andT.Mayer IlusoryBorderEfects:DistanceMismeasurementInflatesEstimatesof HomeBiasinTrade. ManuscriptCEPI2002. [10]HeliwelJ.andG.Verdier MeasuringInternalTradeDistance:A New MethodAppliedtoEs- timate Provincial Border Efect in Canada Canada Journal of Economics [11]HeliwelJ. Measuringthe WidthofNationalBorders Review of InternationalEconomics (3) [12] WolfH. IntranationalHomeBiasinTrade The Review of Economicsand Statistics [13] : nomic Review [16]NaughtonB. How MuchCanRegionalIntegrationDotoUnifyChina smarkets Universityof CaliforniaatSanDiego Mimeo [14] [15]McCalumJ. NationalBordersMater:Canada-U.S.RegionalTradePatern American Eco- [17]ParsleyD.andS.Wei ConvergenceoftheLawofOnePricewithoutTradeBarriersorCurren- cyfluctuations Quarterly Journalof Economics [18]ParsleyD.andS.Wei ExplainingtheBorderEfect:TheRoleofExchangeRateVariability ShippingCostandGeography Journalof InternationalEconomics [19]ParsleyD.andS.Wei CurrencyArrangementsandGoodsMarketIntegration:APriceBased Approach InternationalFinance [20]PoncetS. Measuring ChineseDomesticandInternationalIntegration China Economic Re- view

18 1386 ( ) 12 tegration Review of InternationalEconomics [21]PoncetS. A FragmentedChina:MeasureandDeterminantsofChineseDomesticMarketDisin- [22]FeenstraR. BorderEfectsandtheGravityEquation:ConsistentMethodsforEstimation Scot- tish Journalof PoliticalEconomy200249(5) tion NBER Working paper1996. [24] ( ) [25] [26] [27]YoungA. TheRazor sedge:distributionsandincrementalreforminthepeople srepublic China Quarterly Journalof Economics [28] : [29] ( ) IstheBorderEffectofCitiesinChinaDeclining EstimationBasedonLawofOnePrice XINFEI HUANG YUAN SHU (Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou) HUAMAO ZHENG (Renmin Universityof China) [23] WeiS. Intra-nationalversusInternationalTrade:HowStubbornAreNationsinGlobalIntegra- Abstract Thispaperemploysthepricedataof25citiesinYangtzeRiverDeltaandPearl RiverDeltatocalculatethedomesticpricevolatilityindexesofsixcommodities.Weconstruct abasicmodelinvolvingtheheterogeneityefecttoestimatetheborderefectofdomesticcities andanalyzethetimetrend.theresultshowsthatinvolvingtheheterogeneityefectinthe distributionofwithin-regiondiferentialscanefectivelyreducetheborderefect.themodi- fiedborderefectdecreasedfrom459000kmto66384kmanddeclinesatarateof0.2% per year.theadministrativeboundaryhasagreatimpactontheborderefect. JELClasification F15R10R33

( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.12,No.4 July,2013 李郇洪国志黄亮雄 * 摘要,,,,, 关键词,, 一 引 言,,,,, , 5,, 30,,,,,,,,,, *, ;, :, 135 D214,510

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