384 ( ) 11 ( Poncet 2007) :CEIC % % 1.3% 93.8% 4% 32% 71.4% 1 95% ; 5% 60% (ForeignInvestmentAdvisory Serv

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1 DOI: /j.cnki.ceq ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.11No.2 January2012 : * : ; ; (FDI) FDI FDI 1/3 (OFDI) (IFDI) % GDP 3% * ; : :(010) mjyu@ccer.edu.cn ( : )

2 384 ( ) 11 ( Poncet 2007) :CEIC % % 1.3% 93.8% 4% 32% 71.4% 1 95% ; 5% 60% (ForeignInvestmentAdvisory Service2005) 1 :13% 5.9% 4.4% 2.7% 2.6%

3 2 : 385 Montagna (2001) Melitz (2003) : ; Helpman etal. (2004) 39% 15% Melitz (2003) HeadandRies (2003) Eatonetal. (2004) Damijanetal. (2007) Helpmanetal.(2004) HeadandRies (2003)

4 386 ( ) 11 Feenstraetal.(2011) Lu (2010) Luetal. (2010) (Huangand Wang2010) (2011) : Helpmanetal.(2004) HeadandRies (2003) ( ) ( ) : 500

5 2 : % % ( ) (%) : : 70% ; 2

6 388 ( ) 11 3 (2008) ( ) : ( ) ; 10 4 CaiandLiu (2009) Feenstraetal. (2011) (GAAP) : (1) ;(2) ;(3) ;(4) ;(5) ( 12 1 ) (TFP) OLS OLS : OLS 3 4 LevinsohnandPetrin(2003) 10

7 2 : 389 OleyandPakes (1996) TFP VanBiesebroeck (2005) AmitiandKonings (2007) ( ) Oley-Pakes (O-P) : Felipeetal. (2004) 5 A O-P : (Fosteretal. 2005)

8 390 ( ) 11 2 Helpmanetal.(2004) (Wu2005) 1% 3 3-A 3-B 2008

9 2 : A *** *** *** :*** 0.01 (-9.92) (-19.62) (-10.00) 3-B ( ) *** *** (-12.10) (-5.35) (1.08) : : A 4-B 4-A *** *** *** (-9.37) (-18.46) (-9.38) 4-B (0.36) (1.11) (0.68) : 2008 GDP 3855

10 392 ( ) 11 6 : 5 5 Helpmanetal. (2004) HeadandRies (2003) * *** ** (-1.80) (-4.14) (-2.43) (0.06) (-0.81) (-0.11) :* ** *** (Lu2010) Lu (2010) 2 3 ( 4 ) Lu (2010) GNP

11 2 : A ( ) ** *** *** (-2.36) (-9.83) (-7.38) 6-B ( ) *** *** *** (-10.77) (-17.79) (-8.51) 15% 6-C

12 394 ( ) 11 6-C ( 15% ) * *** (-1.74) (-5.81) : : ( ) : lntfp it =β 1DEXP it +β 2DOFDI it +β (1) 3lnklratioit +εit lntfp it i t D it OFDI i t ( 1 0)lnklratio : i ; η ; t μ ijt μ ijt~n (0σ 2 ) ij 7 (2) (4) 2008 Feenstraetal.(2011) Helpman etal.(2004)

13 2 : (1) (2) (3) (4) *** 0.66 *** 0.35 *** 0.02 (6.53) (4.82) (3.29) (0.20) 0.11 *** 0.14 *** 0.16 *** *** (21.90) (13.02) (15.76) (-4.58) *** *** (-33.37) (0.75) (-0.38) (-63.88) R Probit Pr(D OFDIit =1 X it ) =β 0 + β 1lnTFPit + β 2lnKit + β 3lnLit + β 4DEXP it + β 5DSOE it +β 6DFIE it +εit. (2) 8 2 7

14 396 ( ) 11 8 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Probit Probit Probit+FE Probit Probit+FE 0.13 *** 0.05 ** 0.09 *** 0.09 *** (5.02) (2.17) (2.93) (2.86) 0.16 *** (5.07) 0.09 *** 0.09 *** 0.09 *** 0.08 *** (4.77) (3.87) (3.93) (3.17) 0.12 *** 0.13 *** 0.13 *** 0.13 *** (4.38) (4.21) (4.25) (3.90) 0.68 *** 0.68 *** 0.69 *** 0.72 *** (10.27) (10.38) (10.53) (9.88) * (-1.66) (-0.89) pseudor ( ) 69%; ( ) :

15 2 : 397 (Wooldridge2002) 8 Pr(D OFDIit =1 X it ) =β 0 + β 1lnTFPit-1 + β 2lnKit + β 3lnLit + β 4DEXP it + β 5DSOE it +β 6DFIE it +εit. (3) lntfp it=lntfp it-1+εite(lntfp it-1εit)=0 8 TFP TFP ( ) HeadandRies (2003) Pr(D POOR OFDI it =1 X it ) =β 0 + β 1lnTFPit + β 2lnKit + β 3lnLit Pr(D RICH OFDI it =1 X it ) +β 4DEXP it + β 5DSOE it + β 6DFIE it +εit 8

16 398 ( ) 11 =β 0 + β 1lnTFPit + β 2lnKit + β 3lnLit +β 4DEXP it + β 5DSOE it + β 6DFIE it +θit. (4) εit θit Probit 9-A t 0.1 TFP TFP 9-A : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) / (0.59) (0.86) (0.87) (0.71) (-1.22) 0.08 ** 0.07 *** 0.08 ** 0.07 *** (2.12) (2.99) (2.20) (3.00) (-0.48) *** *** 0.26 * (0.75) (4.35) (0.78) (4.12) (1.75) 0.28 *** 0.75 *** 0.27 *** 0.75 *** 0.76 ** (2.67) (8.41) (2.61) (8.41) (2.44) pseudor B ( ) : (1) (2) (3) / 0.10 * 0.06 ** (1.83) (2.14) (-1.37) *** (1.17) (3.03) (-0.00) *** 0.13 (0.98) (3.73) (0.92) 0.32 ** 0.80 *** 0.93 *** (2.48) (8.25) (2.62) R

17 2 : 399 εit θit (BivariateProbitMod- el) 9 p A 9 9-A 9-B 10 HR 9-A HR ( ) 10-A OLS 9 multinomialprobit 0.8 p 9 10

18 400 ( ) A : (1) (2) (3) (4) 0.06 * 0.10 ** ** (1.93) (1.99) (1.21) (2.03) 0.11 *** 0.12 *** 0.06 ** 0.06 * (3.57) (3.62) (2.05) (1.85) 0.08 * 0.08 * 0.18 *** 0.18 *** (1.95) (1.77) (4.24) (4.34) 0.73 *** 0.75 *** 0.65 *** 0.64 *** (6.50) (6.72) (7.89) (7.77) pseudor B 10-A 11 Lu (2010) 10-B : ( ) (1) (2) (3) (4) 0.07 ** 0.10 ** 0.14 *** 0.21 *** (2.10) (2.32) (3.64) (4.79) 0.11 *** 0.11 *** 0.05 * 0.04 (3.10) (3.13) (1.67) (1.16) 0.09 ** 0.09 * 0.17 *** 0.18 *** (2.06) (1.89) (3.76) (3.88) 0.71 *** 0.72 *** 0.74 *** 0.74 *** (6.19) (6.31) (7.69) (7.60) R

2 : 401 4 4 ( ) : lnofdi it =β 0 + β 1lnTFPit + β 2lnklratioit + β

19 2 : ( ) : lnofdi it =β 0 + β 1lnTFPit + β 2lnklratioit + β 3DSOE it +β 4DFIE it +Xit +γi + μ t +εit (5) D SOEit D FIEit i t 11

20 402 ( ) : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) OLS OLS OLS 2SLS 2SLS 0.20 ** 0.19 ** 0.27 ** 1.68 ** 1.43 ** (2.12) (2.05) (2.65) (1.98) (2.17) (1.32) (0.94) (1.25) 3.57 *** 3.88 * 3.98 ** (109.53) (1.72) (2.04) (0.82) (0.66) (0.31) ** ** (-1.62) (-2.32) (0.04) (-0.37) Kleibergen-Paap WaldrkF Kleibergen-PaaprkLM R ; ( )

21 2 : 403 : (exclusive) ( ) 11 (5) (6) : εit~n(0σ i) 2 Anderson (1984) Kleibergen-Paap (2006) (Waldstatistic) 1% KleibergenandPaap (2006) F 12 ( ) 11 (2SLS) % 14% ; ( ) CraggandDonald(1993) F

22 404 ( ) ( ) : (1) (2) (3) (4) OLS OLS 2SLS 2SLS 0.19 * 0.27 ** 1.74 ** 1.74 ** (1.85) (2.48) (2.10) (2.34) * (1.28) (1.54) (1.21) (1.68) (1.45) (1.14) (-0.35) (-0.80) 3.83 * 4.13 * (1.66) (1.91) R ( ) : (5) GDP DoingBusiness 13 GDP 13

23 2 : ( ) : (1) (2) (3) (4) FE 2SLS FE 2SLS 0.21 ** 1.53 ** 0.23 *** 1.44 ** (2.58) (2.00) (3.37) (2.17) 2.92 *** *** 3.19 (12.78) (1.54) (8.04) (1.63) (1.24) (0.83) (0.77) (0.50) * * (1.06) (1.91) (0.64) (1.70) * *** (-1.74) (-0.08) (-8.74) (-0.35) (-0.02) (0.94) (-0.80) (0.83) GDP 4.11 ** 4.27 *** (2.30) (2.74) GDP *** (0.63) (0.76) (0.33) (0.89) (-3.16) (-0.69) ** 0.06 (-2.50) (0.30) Kleibergen-Paaprk WaldF Kleibergen-PaaprkLM : GDP GDP

24 406 ( ) 11 OleyandPakes(1996) TFP OleyandPakes (1996) - Yit =πitm β m it K β k itl β l it (A1) Yit i t Kit Lit Mit πit (vit) i kit =lnkit AmitiandKon- ings(2007) OP Iit = 珘 I(lnKitvitEFit) (A2) EFit i t Iit vit = 珘 I -1 (lnkitiitefit) 14. (A3) TFP lnyit =β 0 + β mlnmit + β llnlit +g (lnkitiitefit)+εit (A4) g(lnkitiitefit) β klnkit + 珘 I -1 (lnkitiitefit) OleyandPakes (1996) AmitiandKonings(2007) ( ) ( ) g( ) g(kitiitefit)= (1+EFit) δhqk h iti it. q h=0 q=0 (A5) ^βm ^βl (4) Rit lnyit-^β mlnmit-^βllnlit β Amitiand k Konings(2007) ( ) 14 OleyandPakes(1996) 15 g( )

25 2 : 407 : Rit =β klnkit + 珘 I -1 (git-1 -β klnkit-1 ^prit-1 )+εit (A6) ^prit-1 珘 I -1 ( ) git-1 lnkit-1 (A6) (Non-lin- earleastsquares) (Pavcnik2002;Arnold2005) ^βk j i TFP TFP ijt OP =lnyit -^β mlnmit -^β klnkit -^β llnlit. [1] AmitiM.andJ.Konings TradeLiberalizationIntermediateInputsandProductivity:Evi- dencefromindonesia American Economic Review (5) [2] ArnoldJ. ProductivityEstimationatthePlantLevel:APracticalGuide MimeoBocconiUni- versity2005. [3] CaiH.andQ.Liu CompetitionandCorporateTaxAvoidance:Evidencefrom ChineseIndus- trialfirms EconomicJournal (537) [4] DamijanJ.S.PolanecandJ.Prasnikar OutwardFDIandProductivity:Micro-evidencefrom Slovenia World Economy200730(1) [5] EatonJ.S.KortumandF.Kramarz DissectingTrade:FirmsIndustriesandExportDesti- nations American Economic ReviewPapersand Proceedings200494(2) [6] FeenstraR.Z.Liand M.Yu ExportsandCreditConstraintsunderIncompleteInformation: TheoryandEvidencefrom China MimeoUniversityofCaliforniaDavis2011. [7] FelipeJ.R.HasanandJ.McCombie CorrectingforBiases When EstimatingProduction Functions:AnIlusionoftheLawsofAlgebra CAMA WorkingPaperSeriesNo.14Australia NationalUniversity2004. [8] FosterL.J.HaltiwangerandC.Syverson RealocationFirm TurnoverandEficiency:Se- lectiononproductivityorprofitablity American Economic Review200898(1) [9] HeadK.andJ.Ries HeterogeneityandtheFDIversusExportDecisionofJapaneseManufac- turers JournaloftheJapaneseInternationalEconomies200317(4) [10]HelpmanE.M.MelitzandS.R.Yeaple Exportvs.FDI American Economic Review (1) [11]HuangY.andB.Wang An AnalysisofthePaternandCausesofChineseInvestmentA- broad MimeoCCERPekingUniversity2010. [12]LevinsohnJ.andA.Petrin EstimatingProductionFunctionsUsingInputstoControlforUn- observable Review of EconomicStudies200370(2) [13]LuD. ExceptionalExporterPerformance Evidencefrom ChineseManufacturingFirms Mim- eouniversityofchicago2010. [14]LuJ.Y.LuandZ.Tao ExportingBehaviorofForeign Afiliates:TheoryandEvidence Journalof InternationalEconomics201081(2) [15]MelitzM. TheImpactofTradeonIntra-industryRealocationsandAggregateIndustryProduc- tivity Econometrica200371(6)

26 408 ( ) 11 [16]MontagnaC. EficiencyGapsLoveforVarietyandInternationalTrade Economica (1) [17]OleyS.andA.Pakes TheDynamicsofProductivityintheTelecommunicationsEquipmentIn- dustry Econometrica199664(6) [18]PavcnikN. TradeLiberalizationExitandProductivityImprovements:Evidencefrom Chilean Plants Review of EconomicStudies200269(1) [19]PoncetS. InwardandOutwardFDIinChina Panthéon-Sorbonne-EconomieUniversitéParis 1CNRSandCEPI)WorkingPaper2007. [20]Van BiesebroeckJ. Exporting Raises Productivityin Sub-Saharan African Manufacturing Firms Journalof InternationalEconomics200567(2) [21] WooldridgeJ.Econometric Analysisof CrossSectionand Panel Data.CambridgeMA:The MITPress2002. [22] WuJ.Understanding and Interpreting Chinese Economic Reform.MasonOhio:Thomson/ South-Western2005. [23] ( ) [24] : [25] : ( ) [26] No.C FirmProductivityandOutboundForeign DirectInvestment:AFirm-LevelEmpirical InvestigationofChina WEI TIAN MIAOJIE YU (Peking University) Abstract Weinvestigatetheendogenousnexusbetweenfirm sproductivityandfirm s outboundforeigndirectinvestment(ofdi)usingarichfirm-levelpaneldatasetofchina s Zhejiangprovincefortheperiod Basedonaprecisemeasureoffirm stotalfactor productivity(tfp)byusingtheaugmentedoley-pakes (1996)semi-parametricapproach aftercontrolingthepossibleendogeneityoffirms OFDIwefindthat:(1)firmswithhigher TFPhavelargerprobabilitiestoinvolveinOFDI;(2)thehigherTFPafirmhasthemoreits OFDIis;(3)theincomelevelofthedestinationcountryofODFIhasnosignificantimpacton firms OFDIdecision.Suchfindingsarerobusttovariouseconometricmethods. JELClasification O1O4F1

676 ( ) 13 : ,,, 50% 2,,,,, (1), 10%~22% (2),, (3),, (4),,,,,, 3, Luetal.(2010) Lu (2010), 2,,, (1), ;(2), 3 BernardandJensen(1995,1999),Cl

676 ( ) 13 : ,,, 50% 2,,,,, (1), 10%~22% (2),, (3),, (4),,,,,, 3, Luetal.(2010) Lu (2010), 2,,, (1), ;(2), 3 BernardandJensen(1995,1999),Cl 13 2 2014 1 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.13,No.2 January,2014 : 戴觅余淼杰 MadhuraMaitra * 摘要, 2000 2006,, 20%, 10% ~22% 关键词, 一引言, 20, (Melitz,2003;Bernardetal.,2003);,, (BernardandJensen,1995,1999; Cleridesetal.,1998;DeLoecker,2007),