2. 1%, % 3. 3% 6. 9%? Harrigan Barrows( ) 2005, 2005,,,,, ;, Harrigan Barrows , %, 5% ;, 2%, 7%, 2005, 21%, Ha

3 2005 2005, 2005, 2005 7, 2005 17%, 2006 6%, 2005, 2006, (MFA), MFA 1995, (W TO) (ATC), MFA ATC, (1995 1998 2002 2005 ) 2001 W TO, 2002 2005 ATC,, W TO,, 2005, (B rambilla et al., 2007) 2005 7 21, 3 : 699 201206 : xubin@ ceibs. edu ( : 70773121) ( textiles) ( apparel or clothing) 242 W TO 2008 12 31, ATC,, 2009 6 16

2. 1%, 2005 2006 2007 2. 6% 3. 3% 6. 9%? Harrigan Barrows( ) 2005, 2005,,,,, ;, Harrigan Barrows 2002 2005, 2005 2005 18%, 5% ;, 2%, 7%, 2005, 21%, Harrigan Barrows 2005, 2005, ;, 2005 1 %, (2007) ( SITC), ( ) 1. 85 1. 28, 0. 01 (2007) 1990 2005, ; 2001-3. 91-1. 24 2002-11. 10-14. 80 2003-1. 85-0. 84 2004-0. 27 0. 75 2005-17. 33-17. 49 2006 6. 16 9. 52 : HS (, 200 ), 1 2001 2006 2002 2005, 11. 1% 17. 3% ; W TO, ATC 2002 ATC 2005 2006 1 W halley (2006), (2007) (2006) ( 2006 ), (2006), (2006) 2009 6 17

2006 6% : 2005? 2005 7? :, ( ) 1 P 3, AB, CD,, ( 1 P 3 P),,, ( 1 P 3 P) 1 ( ),, ( pass - through) Dornbusch ( 1987 ) Froot Klemperer ( 1989 ) Hooper Mann ( 1989 ) Dornbusch (1987), Froot Klemperer ( 1989) Hooper Mann (1989),,, Knetter(1989 1993) (p ricing to market),,, 2005, 2005, 2005 7, Feenstra (2004) Falvey(1979) Rodriguez(1979) 2009 6 18

1, CD,, Harrigan Barrows( ), 90% 2005, 2005 Harrigan Barrows, Harrigan Barrows, (2005 ) 2005 2005,,,,, Harrigan Barrows( ) ^P g t g t - 1 t : ^P g t = g + d t + t Q g t + g t (1) (1), g, g ( ) d t, ( ) g t (1) Q g t g t - 1, Q g t = 1, Q g t = 0 t ( d t ) ( g ), (1) ( difference - in - difference) ( difference), 2004 2005, 2005,, 2005 (1) Q g t, ( difference),, 2005, t < 0 ( t = 2005 ), 2004 2005 ; 2005, t > 0 ( t = 2005 ), 2005 2005 (1), d t, d t ( ) GEXR t - 1 t - 1, GEXR t - 1 ^P g t, 2009 6 19

(Rodrik, 2006; Schott, 2008) GPROD Y g t - 1 g t - 1 GPROD Y g t - 1 g ^P g t : ^P g t = g + t Q g t + 1 GEXR t- 1 + 2 GPROD Y g t- 1 + g t (2) (2) g t (2) 2005 ( t ), 2005 7 ( 1 ), ( 2 ), (2) ( g ), ( Trade - on - line) ; HS (OTEXA) ; HS OTEXA,,,, : t, t - 1 HS ;, t - 1 t, t HS, t( t - 1) HS,, t( t - 1) t - 1 ( t), HS, 2 2 2, 2001 ( W TO ) 2004 ( ) 2006 HS,,, ( % ) 2001 166 37 22. 3 2002 173 31 17. 9 2003 172 21 12. 2 2004 172 38 22. 1 2005 172 0 0 2005 145 16 11. 0 2006 153 0 0 2006 153 0 0 : 2005 5, 2005 g I t I t - 1, ( ) I g i t p g it, v g it Feenstra (1994) 2009 6 20

, g : ^P g t w g it ln p g it i I = p g it- 1 + 1 g it ln - 1 g t- 1 ^P g t g t - 1 t w g it g, ( Sato, 1976) : s g it = vg it v g it i I w g it = ( s g it - s g it- 1 ) ( lns g it - lns g it- 1 ) - 1 ( s g it - s g it- 1 ) ( lns g it - lns g it- 1 ) - 1 i I, (3) I, g t t g : v g it g i I t = v g it i I t 2004 2006, 2005 (Q2005H1) 2004 ; 2004, Q2005H1 = 1, Q2005H1 = 0 2005 (Q2005H2) 2005 ; 2005, Q2005H2 = 1, Q2005H2 = 0 2006 (Q2006H1 Q2006H2) 2005 2005 ; 2005, 1, 0, Q2006H1 Q2006H2 2005 2006 (1) (2) Q g t, t - 1 GEXR t - 1 2005 7 21 2005 7 21 2. 1%,,, 3 6 2. 1%, (GERXA t - 1 ) 2006, 2005 7 2. 1%, 2006 2005 (2. 6% ), 2006 2006 2. 1% ( 3% ) (GERXB t - 1 ) 2006 2005 7 2. 1%, (3) (4) (5), CES, ( ), ( CES ), Harrigan Barrows( ), = 5 2001 2006, 2005 2006, 2004 2006,, 2005 2009 6 21

, 2006 2. 1% 2005 (0. 46% ), 2006 2006 (0. 93% ) Rodrik (2006) Rodrik ( GDP),, i, Rodrik : PROD Y i = c x ic / x kc k ( x im / m k x km Y c (6) Y c c GDP Y c, i c, i ( 1) PROD Y i i i GDP HS PROD Y i, g : PROD Y g = i g x i PROD Y i (7) x i i g ^P g t Q2005H1 2005H1 2005H2 2006H1 2006H2-0. 171 (0. 317) 0. 224 (0. 418) Q2005H2 - - 0. 002 (0. 173) 0. 057 (0. 268) 0. 042 (0. 207) - - - 0. 110 (0. 314) Q2006H1 - - - - 0. 107 (0. 310) Q2006H2 - - - - 0. 106 (0. 308) GEXRA t - 1 - - 0. 0256 0. 0299 GEXRB t - 1 - - 0. 0046 0. 0093 0. 021 0. 021 0. 023 0. 023 GPROD Y t - 1 (0. 124) (0. 124) (0. 126) (0. 126) PROD Y g g 170 145 150 151, i : g g t : GPROD Y g t = ln ( PROD Y g t ) - ln ( PROD Y g t- 1 ) (8) 3, 4 (1) (4. 1) 2004 2005, 2004, 2005 9. 4% ( T2005H1 ) ; 2004, 2005 4. 8% (Q2005H1 ) 2005 ( ) ; ( T2005H1), Xu (2007) PROD Y g, GPROD Y g PROD Y g 2 2009 6 22

, Q2005H1, 2005, 2004 ( 4. 1) 35%, Harrigan Barrows( ) (32% ), 2005 (4. 2) 2004 4 2005 2005, 2005 2005 2005, Q2005H2 = 1; Q2005H2 = 0 16. 3% (Q2005H2 ),, Harrigan Barrows( ), 2005 (Q2005H1) 2005 (Q2005H2 ) 2005, Q2005H2 ( - 0. 21) ; T2005H1 T2005H2 T2006H1 (4. 1) (4. 2) (4. 3) (4. 4) - 0. 094-0. 103 (3. 18) 333 (3. 58) 333-0. 035 (1. 46) - 0. 103 (3. 67) 333-0. 034 (1. 32) 0. 014 (0. 50) - 0. 110 (3. 97) 333-0. 035 (1. 56) 0. 014 (0. 48) T2006H2 0. 013 (0. 59) Q2005H1 Q2005H2 Q2006H1 Q2006H2-0. 348-0. 320 (7. 10) 333 (7. 10) 333 0. 002 (0. 11) 0. 163 (2. 55) 33 0. 007 (0. 53) - 0. 316 (6. 95) 333 0. 169 (2. 44) 33 0. 285 (3. 93) 333 0. 008 (0. 62) - 0. 294 (6. 37) 333 0. 159 (2. 61) 333 0. 274 (3. 14) 333 0. 140 (1. 56) 0. 010 (0. 90) 339 484 634 785 R 2 0. 62 0. 44 0. 35 0. 29 : t ( ) 10%, 33 5%, 333 1% Harrigan Barrows : 2005, 2005,, 2005 2005 (4. 3) 2006, ( 4. 4) 2006 2005, 2005 2006 (Q2006H1 ), 2006 (Q2006H2 ) 4, 2005,, ( ) (1),, (2), 5 (2) 2005 7, 5 2005 2009 6 23

5 T2005H1 Q2005H1 Q2005H2 Q2006H1 Q2006H2 (5. 1) (5. 2) (5. 3) (5. 4) - 0. 066 (1. 87) 3-0. 068 (1. 95) 3-0. 074 (2. 12) 33-0. 075 (2. 17) 33-0. 235-0. 248-0. 235-0. 248 (4. 46) 333 (4. 75) 333 (4. 46) 333 (4. 75) 333 0. 316 (4. 51) 333 0. 294 (2. 88) 333 0. 275 (4. 05) 333 0. 419 (3. 73) 333 0. 308 (4. 41) 333 0. 448 (4. 47) 333 0. 268 (3. 96) 333 0. 431 (3. 84) 333 0. 292 0. 272 0. 290 0. 267 (2. 85) 333 (2. 61) 333 (2. 83) 333 (2. 55) 33 GEXRA t - 1 1. 688 (1. 85) 3 1. 633 (1. 79) 3 GEXRB t - 1 5. 023 (1. 67) 3 5. 023 (1. 67) 3 GPROD Y t - 1 0. 041 (0. 29) - 0. 041-0. 029 (1. 96) 3 (1. 45) - 0. 033 (1. 64) 0. 042 (0. 30) - 0. 022 (1. 15) 616 568 616 568 R 2 0. 36 0. 30 0. 36 0. 30 : t ( ) 3 10%, 33 5%, 333 1% 5, GEXRA t - 1 GEXRB t - 1, 2005 7 21 2. 1%, 2006 2. 1% ; GEXRA t - 1 2006 2. 1% ; GEXRB t - 1 5,,, 10% 5 T2005H1, 2005 7% Q2005H1, 2005 24% 2005 2006 2006, Q2005H2 Q2006H1 Q2006H2 2005 5,,, (5. 1) (5. 3), (5. 2) (5. 4), (GPROD Y t - 1 ) 3,, 2005 4. 2%, 2006 4. 6% ( PROD Y g ) (7), ( PROD Y i )?, (5. 1) ( 5. 3) (5. 2) (5. 4), GPROD Y t - 1,, (5. 2) (5. 4) GPROD Y t - 1, GPROD Y t - 1 2009 6 24

2006 9 13% 11%, 5, 5 GEXRA t - 1 GEXRB t - 1 5 2005 11% (4. 4) 2006 0. 274, 2006 5. 7% 0. 11 0. 274 /0. 057 = 52% 2006 GEXRA t - 1 2. 56% ( 3), (5. 2) GEXRA t - 1 1. 633, 2006 5. 7% 0. 0256 1. 633 /0. 057 = 73% 2006 GEXRB t - 1 0. 46% ( 3), (5. 4) GEXRB t - 1 5. 023, 2006 5. 7% 0. 0046 5. 023 /0. 057 = 41% 5, 2005 2006 2005 2006 9, 2006, 2005 17%, 2006 6% 2005, 2005, ; :, 2005, 2005 2005, Harrigan Barrows( ) 2005, 2006 Harrigan Barrows ; 2005,, 2005, 2005 2004, 2005 1, ( ) 2009 6 25

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