(129) 23 tariff quota TRQ 15 SSG SSG 33.3% 90% Coercial Policy Analysis Syste COMPAS COMPAS tariff quota TRQ % % 703 Spec

Transcription

1 (128) * ** COMPAS WTO WTO WTO Iport relief Trigger quantitytrigger price90% Special Safeguard Clause SSG WTO * **

2 (129) 23 tariff quota TRQ 15 SSG SSG 33.3% 90% Coercial Policy Analysis Syste COMPAS COMPAS tariff quota TRQ % % 703 Special Safeguard SSGTrigger quantity 434% 55 14% 50% 80% 20% , % %

3 (130) ,678 68,000 74,621 35,802 37,441 36,425 (26,026) (23,207) (24,955) ,023 8,134 8, , , ,902 14,547 14,204 14,417 2,955 2,866 2, , , ,359 WTO % 110 /kg 369%

4 (131) US International Trade Coission USITCCoercial Policy Analysis Syste COMPAS USITC COMPAS COMPAS COMPAS Arington1969a, 1969b Arington log-linear 2006, 2008 COMPAS %20% 30% 1997 COMPAS

5 (132) Bhagwati harassent effectprusa1997 trade diversionbown and Crowley2007trade destruction price undertaking Krupp and Pollard Prusa 2001 Durling and Prusa2006 United States International Trade Coission USITC Coercial Policy Analysis Syste COMPASCOMPAS coparative statics analysis 異 類 COMPAS (1) (2) 類 (3) 類

6 (133) (4) 類 (5) 類 (6) 類 類 類 COMPAS 類 log-linear function for j i d n( Qi) n( ai) iin( Pi) ijn( Pj), i, j=l,..,n 1 Q i i a i i P i i ii i ij i j 類 nq np i, i=1,.n 2 i i i 類 P / ' P d d Dt d 1 t dd Dt 1 t d ' Q Q / d 3 CC P Q dd d / Dt dd d (1 t) 1 1 t / Dt T tp Q t 1 1 / D 1 5 dd d dd, d,,, d, d 類 Dt dd d d d dd d

7 (134) d 類 d 類 dd, d,,, d, d 類 COMPAS TRQ % 110 /kg 369% 328% 25% COMPAS / /

8 (135) 328% 25% 303% COMPAS 2007 SSG 328% 25% COMPAS 2 2 COMPAS (%) % (%) % (%) 50.0% 4, , ,433 HS 8

9 (136) COMPAS TRQ 328% 25% 3 3 (%) % % % (%) -70.5% 2.5% -69.8% %2.5% , % ,124 3

10 (137) -69.8% -70.5% 2.5% -69.8% 4 24, , (1) (1)=(2)+(3)+(4) $372 (2) -$24,162 (3) -$584 (4) $25,124 COMPAS 異 COMPAS COMPAS 5

11 (138) 5 "" "" "" WTO 6 6 Trigger quantitytrigger

12 (139) price90%special SafeguardSSG 類 GATT 19 serious injury price-basedvolue-based WTO Doha Round COMPAS 2007 類 200 類 2, WTO

13 (140) COMPAS Methodology WTO A1 WTO WTO WTO (9) Abbot, P. and B. A. Morse, Tariff Rate Quota Ipleentation and Adinistration by Developing Countries, Agricultural and Resource Econoics Review, Vol. 29, No.1: (2000), pp Arington, P.S., The Geographic Pattern of Trade and the Effects of Price Changes, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 16, (1969), pp Boughner, D. S., H. de Gorter, and I. M. Shledon, The Econoics of Two-Tier Tariff-Rate Iport Quotas in Agriculture, Agricultural and Resource Econoics Review, Vol. 29, No.1: (2000), pp Bureau, J. C. and S. Tangeran, Tariff Rates Quotas in The EU, Agricultural and Resource Econoics Review, Vol. 29, No.1: (2000), pp Francois, J. F. and H. K. Hall (1993), COMPAS: Coercial Policy Analysis Syste, Washington, D.C.: U.S. International Trade Coission. 21. Francois, J. F. and K. A. Reinert (eds.) (1997), Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis, Cabridge: Cabridge University Press. 22. Said, S. E. and D. A. Dickey (1985), Hypothesis Testing in ARIMA Models, Journal of the Aerican Statistical Association, 80, pp Shiells, C. R., R. M. Stern, and A. V. Deardorff Sion Glance (1995),COMPAS MODEL DOCUMENT

14 (141) (1986), Estiates of the Elasticities of Substitution between Iports and Hoe Goods for the United States, Weltwirtschaftliches Archive, 122(3), USITC (1995), The Econoic Effects of Antiduping and Countervailing Duty Order and Suspension Agreeents, USITC Investigation No. Washington D.C.: Publication , World Trade Organization (WTO) (1995), Results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations- Agreeent on Agriculture.