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1 Today s Focus 今日焦点 Research Department 6 July 2011 China Shenhua (01088 HK): It is reported the Consortium formed with China Shenhua to obtain 40% interest of the Western Tsankhi Area of Tavan Tolgoi Coal Field, Mongolia 中国神华 (01088 HK): 媒体报道神华牵头的财团获得蒙古塔旺陶勒盖 Tsankhi 矿区西区 40% 股权 Agile Property (03383 HK): 1H11 total contracted sales up 49.5% YoY 雅居乐地产 (03383 HK): 11 年上半年累计合约销售额同比增 49.5% Latest Reports 最新报告 Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码 Huadian Power HK Title 标题 Wait until the Margin of Power Sold to Recover, Neutral TP 目标价 Chg 变动 Rating 评级 Chg 变动 EPS Est. Change? 盈利预测是否改变 HK$1.90 Neutral -- Y 华电国际 HK) 仍须等待售电差价回升, 维持 中性 HK$1.90 中性 -- 是 Intime HK Flash Note:Strong 2Q11 result, better than expected, Maintain Accumulate Rating HK$ Accumulate -- N 银泰百货 HK 快讯 : 第二季度数据超出预期, 维持 收集 评级 HK$ 收集 -- 否 China Life Insurance Sector: Sector Report: 1H11 Review and 2H11 Outlook n.a. Outperform -- n.a. 中资寿险业 行业报告 :11 年上半年回顾及 11 年下半年观点 n.a. 跑赢大市 -- n.a. Appendix:Chinese Translation 后附 : 中文翻译 HSI Performance HSCEI Performance 27,000 15,000 24,500 14,000 13,000 22,000 12,000 11,000 19,500 10,000 17,000 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 9,000 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8

2 Today s Focus China Shenhua (01088 HK): It is reported the Consortium formed with China Shenhua to obtain 40% interest of the Western Tsankhi Area of Tavan Tolgoi Coal Field, Mongolia Analyst: Leo Wu What happened: It is reported by Reuters that the consortium formed with China Shenhua Energy ( Shenhua or the Company ) won 40% interest of the the Western Tsankhi Area of Tavan Tolgoi Coal Field, Mongolia. Consortium formed by Russian company won 36% of the interest and Peabody Energy won the remaining 24% interest. According to the information, the resources of Western Tsankhi Area with a depth of 200 meters are approximately 1.2 billion tonnes. The major types of coal include coking coal, 1/3 coking coal and fat coal. The above-mentioned area is 180km away from the Ganqimaodu Port of China. The anticipated annual output is 15 million tonnes. Comments and Views: Based on the 40% interest, the equity-based coal capacity of the Consortium led by China Shenhua is 6 million tonnes. The total commercial coal production volume in 2011 of Shenhua is estimated to be 265 million tonnes. We think the impact of Western Tsankhi project itself is limited to China Shenhua. For long term, the success of bidding in the project could facilitate the Company to develop other potential coal resources of Mongolia. Investment suggestion: The rating of China Shenhua is Accumulate and the TP is HKD The stock is currently trading at 13.1x 11PER and 2.7x 11P/B. Agile Property (03383 HK): 1H11 total contracted sales up 49.5% YoY Analyst: Dundas Deng What happened: The Company posted its June operating results as following: Currency (RMB) YoY MoM Unit (Sq.m) YoY MoM June Contracted Sales 2.2 billion 10.0% 8.4% June Contracted GFA Sold 245, % 15.0% June Contracted ASP 8, % -6.8% 1H11 Contracted Sales 15.7 billion 49.5% n.a. 1H11 Contracted GFA Sold 1,420, % n.a. 1H11 Contracted ASP 11, % n.a. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Comments and Views: MoM growth of Agile s contracted sales was not significant and its sales was maintained over 2.0 billion RMB by relatively lower monthly ASP and higher GFA sold. Zhongshan and Guangzhou was the main driver of its sales. Its YTD YoY growth of contracted sales was down from 59.2% (Jan-May) to 49.5% (Jan-June). June is still in Agile s low season of the year, and Agile has completed 39.6% of its 2011 annual sales target. The Company is likely to maintain reasonable pricing to achieve better growth of GFA sold and launch more new projects in 2H11. In 1H11, Hainan Clearwater Bay recorded sales of 4.6 billion RMB, which was 29.3% of its total. Agile s monthly contracted sales may recover in September while the contribution from Hainan increases. Investment suggestion: We believe it is a good time to accumulate Agile s shares now and we maintain its investment rating as Accumulate with TP of HK$14.30, which is equivalent to 1.9x 11PB, 7.1x 11PE and 34.7% discount to its 11NAV. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 8

3 Latest Reports Huadian Power (01071 HK): Wait until the Margin of Power Sold to Recover, Neutral Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: HK$1.90 Analyst: Leo Wu Report Date: Summary The 1Q11 result of Huadian recorded a net loss of RMB265 Mn, down 443% YoY, based on PRC GAAP. The loss was largely attributed to the high spot coal price in 1Q11. Our data shows that the average BSPI (5,500 Kcal) for 2Q11 was RMB820.5/tonne, RMB48.7/tonne or 6.3% higher than that of 1Q11.We expect the unit coal cost of power sold would be higher in 2Q11 than that in 1Q11. The overall impact of on-grid tariff hike in 2Q11 to FY11 average on-grid tariff of Huadian should be around RMB16/MWh. This tariff hike could offset an increase standard coal price by RMB50/tonne, representing an increase of 5.8% from the FY10 average standard coal price of Huadian. We expect the unit gross margin of power sold (on-grid tariff (VAT excl.) less the unit coal cost of power sold) of Huadian could slightly increase in FY11. We expect the on-grid tariff would be raised again in 4Q11. We revise down the FY11 EPS by 27.9% and FY12 EPS by 58.0%, respectively. The FY11-12 recurring net profit is estimated to be RMB billion and RMB -276 million, respectively. Due to the weak profitability, the valuation of Huadian is not attractive among its peers and we maintain our Neutral rating and revise down our TP to HKD1.90. Flash Note: Intime.(01833 HK):Strong 2Q11 result, better than expected, Maintain Accumulate" Rating Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$13.50 Analyst: Frank Xu Report Date: Summary Intime published its operational statistics in 1H11, total GSP of concessionaire and direct sales of 1H11 was RMB 5, million, compared to the GSP of 1H10 which was RMB 3, million, translating to an increase of 38.8%. The GSP for 2Q11 was RMB 2, million, an increase of 40.9% compared to 2Q10 s GSP of 1, million. About the SSS data, total SSS for 1H11 was RMB 5, million, which is an increase of 28.4% over 1H10 s 3, million. The 2Q11 SSS was RMB 2, million, translating to a SSSG of 29.9%. The GSP and SSSG data for 2Q11 were both higher than we have expected. Our forecast of the GSP was around 30% and SSS was around 23.5%. Traditionally, the second quarter isn t a strong season for department stores, plus several negative updates in the 2Q11 for the industry, include: the forbidden of raise price then discount it off by national development and reform committee; the opinion of managing pre-paid shopping cards; more than mild inflation expectation and street waterlog in several cities that corrupted the logistics and business activities. However, Intime was not negatively affected; in addition, it was the best quarterly performance for Intime in terms of GSP and SSS growth. Two reasons could be used to explain the strong result: Intime s concessionaire rate did not affected by fierce competition and it maintained its premium prestige in some key cities such as Hangzhou, where all of its stores obtained outstanding growth data, include its flagship store, Hangzhou Wulin with a GSP increase of 18.5%, amazing result for stores in similar age and base; and improved operating skills and detail management made some relatively new stores, such as Yiwu Yimei and Jinhua Intime World achieved significant increase. We maintain our target price of HK$ and investment rating of Accumulate, but will close monitor for more positive catalysts. We are likely to revise up the SSSG assumption or the target price for future years after meeting with the management later this month. See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 8

4 Sector Report: China Life Insurance Sector: 1H11 Review and 2H11 Outlook Rating: Outperform 6-18m TP: na Analyst: Felix Luo Report Date: Summary China life insurance business slowed down in 1H11, the main problems were: high inflation reduced life insurance demand; difficulties to recruit fresh agents; bancassurance channel was tightened; and A-share markets did not perform well in 1H11. However, we now suggest to accumulate China life insurance stocks, based on the following reasons: the valuation of some shares (such as China Life, 02628) reached a low since 2005; so long as A-share markets do not deteriorate in 2H11, life insurance players will benefit from higher interest rates; we expect the bancassurance channel will experience some recovery in 2H11; another potential catalyst will depend on A-share markets performance. If A-share markets perform well in the rest of 2011, life insurance players total investment performance and embedded value will be boosted. CPIC (02601) is our top pick in the China life insurance sector. We think that the Company has higher growth in new business value of life insurance than China peers in FY11. The investment rating for CPIC (02601) is buy. The 6-18M price target for CPIC (02601) is HK$41.0. We also suggest to accumulate China Taiping (00966) because we expect China Taiping (00966) will experience some recovery in its bancassurance in 2H11. The 6-18M price target for China Taiping (00966) is HK$22.5. Chinese Translation 中文翻译 今日焦点 中国神华 (01088 HK): 媒体报道神华牵头的财团获得蒙古塔旺陶勒盖 Tsankhi 矿区西区 40% 股权分析员 : 吴逸超 事件描述 : 据路透社报道, 中国神华 ( 公司 ) 牵头的竞标方将获得蒙古塔旺陶勒盖 Tsankhi 矿区西区块项目 40% 的权益, 一个俄罗斯企业牵头的财团将获得该项目 36% 的权益, 美国博地能源 (Peabody Energy) 将获得余下 24% 的股权 根据资料, 该区块埋深 200 米以上资源量为 12 亿吨, 主要煤种为焦煤,1/3 焦煤和肥煤, 离中国甘其毛都口岸 180 公里, 预计年产量 1,500 万吨 观点评论 : 以 40% 股权比例计算, 神华牵头的竞标方的权益产能为 600 万吨 2011 年中国神华的自产商品煤产量预计为 2.65 亿吨 我们认为仅该项目本身而言, 对中国神华的影响有限 长远而言, 该项目的进入有望打开神华开发蒙古国其他煤炭资源的空间 投资建议 : 维持公司的评级为 收集, 目标价 港元, 公司股价相当于 13.1 倍 11 年 PER 及 2.7 倍 11 年 PB 雅居乐地产 (03383 HK): 11 年上半年累计合约销售额同比增 49.5% 分析员 : 邓京晶 事件描述 : 公司公布 2011 年 6 月销售数据如下 : 货币单位 ( 人民币 ) 同比 环比 单位 ( 平方米 ) 同比 环比 6 月合约销售额 22 亿 10.0% 8.4% 6 月合约销售面积 260, % 15.0% 6 月合约销售均价 8, % -6.8% See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 8

5 1-6 月合约销售额 亿 49.5% n.a. 1-6 月合约销售面积 1,420, % n.a. 1-6 月合约销售均价 11, % n.a. 资料来源 : 公司, 国泰君安国际 观点评论 : 雅居乐地产 6 月的合约销售额月环比增长不显著, 公司以较低的售价和更多的销售面积将月销售维持在了 20 亿人民币以上的水平 广州和中山是其销售的主要贡献区域 11 年至今公司累计合约销售同比增幅由 1-5 月时的 59.2% 降至 1-6 月时的 49.5% 6 月仍是雅居乐销售的相对淡季, 而公司已完成 2011 全年销售目标的 39.6% 公司可能维持售价在适中的水平以换取销售面积较好的增长, 并在 2H11 加推更多新盘 上半年, 海南清水湾项目录得 46 亿元人民币的合约销售, 占总销售额的 29.3% 随着海南新盘的推出, 料雅居乐的合约销售可在九月恢复 投资建议 : 我们相信现在是收集雅居乐的较好时机, 维持雅居乐的投资评级为 收集 和目标价 港元, 相当于 1.9x 11PB,7.1 倍 11PE 和对 11NAV34.7% 的折让 最新报告 华电国际 (01071 HK) : 仍须等待售电差价回升, 维持 中性 评级 : 中性 6-18m 目标价 : HK$1.90 分析员 : 吴逸超报告日期 : 报告摘要 华电国际基于中国会计准则的一季度净利润为 亿人民币, 同比降 443% 亏损主要由一季度较高的现货煤价导致 我们收集的数据显示二季度的平均环渤海 5,500 大卡动力煤价为 元 / 吨, 比一季度上涨 48.7 元 / 吨或 6.3% 我们预期公司二季度的单位售电燃煤成本将比一季度更高 二季度上调电价对华电国际 11 年全年的平均上网电价的总体影响约在 16 元 / 兆瓦时 此次上调电价大约可抵消 50 元 / 吨的全年标煤均价上涨, 等价于 10 年华电国际全年标煤均价水平的 5.8% 我们预计华电国际 11 年的单位售电差价 ( 不含税平均上网电价减单位售电燃煤成本 ) 可小幅提升 我们预期 11 年四季度上网电价还有可能获得一次上调 我们分别将华电国际 11 年 EPS 下调 27.9%,12 年 EPS 下调 58.0% 预计 年的经常性净利润分别为 亿人民币及 亿人民币 鉴于其较弱的盈利能力, 华电国际目前的估值与同业相比显得并不吸引 我们维持对其 中性 评级以及下调其目标价至 1.90 港元 快讯 : 银泰百货 (01833 HK): 第二季度数据超出预期, 维持 收集 评级评级 : 收集 6-18m 目标价 : HK$13.50 分析员 : 许智程报告日期 : 报告摘要 银泰百货发布了截止至 2011 年 6 月 30 日止六个月的运营统计数据, 上半年总的销售额为人民币 亿, 与 10 年上半年的销售额人民币 亿相比, 增长为 38.8%. 其中,11 年第二季度的总销售额为人民币 亿, 与 10 年第二季度的总销售额人民币 亿相比, 增长为 40.9%. 同店增长方面,11 年上半年同店销售额为人民币 亿, 与 10 年上半年的人民币 亿相比, 增长为 28.4%,11 年第二季度同店销售额为人民币 亿, 与 10 年上半年相比, 增长为 29.9%. See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 8

6 总销售额与同店增长数据都超出我们的预期, 我们之前所做的第二季度总销售额与同店增长假设为 30% 以及 23.5%. 传统来看, 第二季度是百货业淡季, 外加本年第二季度行业受到的负面消息较多, 其中包括 : 发改委叫停 虚高价格后打折 行为 ; 预付消费卡的管理意见出台 ; 高于温和范畴的通胀预期以及多城市的涝灾导致物流及商业活动受到影响 但是银泰非但没有受到负面因素的影响, 反而, 若以总销售额及同店增长口径, 本季成为了银泰表现最好的单季 我们认为第二季度强劲的数据受到两个理由的支撑 第一, 银泰的佣金率没有受到激烈竞争的影响且成功的保持了其在某些城市优质百货企业的地位, 例如杭州, 银泰在杭州所有的门店都取得了出色的销售额, 包括其销售额同比增长达到 18.5% 的旗舰店杭州武林, 若以其店龄以及基数来看, 是为一个优异的成绩 第二, 加强了的经营技能以及细节管理能力, 使得如义乌伊美及金华天地等新店创造出明显的销售增速 我们维持目标价港币 元以及 收集 投资评级, 但是会紧密关注其他利好催化剂 我们预计会在本月晚些时候与管理层会谈过后提高今后的同店增长预期或者是目标价 行业报告 : 中资寿险业 :11 年上半年回顾及 11 年下半年观点评级 : 跑赢大市 6-18m 目标价 : na 分析员 : 罗磊报告日期 : 报告摘要 2011 年上半年寿险业发展速度放缓, 主要有以下原因 :1) 高通胀抑制了寿险需求 ;2) 部分寿险公司个险营销员增员缓慢导致个险渠道发展较慢 ;3) 银保渠道收紧 ;4)A 股市场表现不佳, 对寿险公司总投资收益造成拖累 2011 年下半年我们建议收集中资寿险股, 基于以下理由 :1) 一些寿险公司如中国人寿 (02628) 估值水平已低, 在 2011 年 6 月曾与 2008 年 10 月末估值水平相当 ;2) 在 A 股市场不恶化的前提下, 寿险公司受益于加息 ;3) 银保渠道有所放松, 预计 2011 年下半年银保渠道将有所恢复 ;4) 另一个潜在的因素将取决于 A 股市场在 2011 年下半年的表现, 若 A 股市场在 2011 年下半年有较好表现, 寿险公司的投资收益以及内涵价值均将受益 行业首选为中国太保 (02601), 主要基于我们预期该公司寿险业务 11 年新业务价值增速略高于其他可比公司 中国太保 (02601) 投资评级为 买入,6-18 月目标价为 41.0 港元 同时, 基于我们预计 2011 年下半年银保渠道将有所恢复, 我们建议逢低收集中国太平 (00966) 中国太平(00966) 投资评级为 收集,6-18 月目标价为 22.5 港元 See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 8

7 Research Department 研究部 Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略 石化 (86755) / (852) Serena Li 李雯 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流 港口 [email protected] (86755) Felix Luo 罗磊 Insurance, Non-banking finance 保险 非银行金融 [email protected] (86755) Jake Li 李准 Telecommunication Internet services, 电信 互联网 [email protected] (86755) Simon Jiang 江旭晓 Conglomerates, Electric equipment 综合红筹 电力设备 [email protected] (86755) Ray Zhao 赵睿 Steel, Cement and Construction Material 钢铁 水泥建材 [email protected] (86755) Owen Liang 梁剑文 Nonferrous Metals, Precious Metals 有色金属 贵金属 [email protected] (86755) Harry Chen 陈欢瑜 Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空 汽车 [email protected] (86755) Jerry Peng 彭港祥 Consumer (Apparel) 消费 ( 服装 ) [email protected] (86755) Simon Lin 林世嘉 Telecommunications Equipment, Machinery 机械 通信设备 [email protected] (86755) Wilson Li 李伟 Banking 银行 [email protected] (86755) Gary Wong 黄家玮 Toll Roads, Infrastructure 公路 基建 [email protected] (852) Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭 电力 [email protected] (86755) Dundas Deng 邓京晶 Property 房地产 [email protected] (86755) Johnson Sun 孙凤强 Health care 医药 [email protected] (852) Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer, Small&Mid cap 消费, 中小型股 [email protected] (86755) Sunny Kwok 郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage) 消费 ( 食品饮料 ) [email protected] (852) Frank Xu 许智程 Consumer (Retailing) 消费 ( 零售 ) [email protected] (86755) Jason Song 宋然 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流 港口 [email protected] (852) Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Market strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (86755) Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 [email protected] (852) Bowen Shen 沈博文 Research assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) Anki Lam 林婉琋 Research assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) See the last page for disclaimer Page 7 of 8

8 Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as director in the listed corporations mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates have no financial interests in the listed corporations mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for Shandong Chenming (01812), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold more than 1% of the market capitalization of listed corporations mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships within the preceding 12 months for China All Access (00633) / Huaneng Power (00902) / China Titans Energy (02188) / Costin New Materials (02228 HK) / TC Interconnect (00515) / West China Cement Ltd (02233) mentioned in this Research Report. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queens Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) Fax: (852) Website: See the last page for disclaimer Page 8 of 8