260 ( ) 14 (PauwandThurlow2011) ( 1) (Cawleyetal.2001) 1 ( ) :(1) ; (2) : ( ) % % 17.55% 1 197

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1 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.14No.1 October2014 * % (Murphyetal. 1989) (Golinetal.2002) (Restucciaetal.2008) Headey (2011) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) * : ; :(010) ; X.zhang@ nsd.pku.edu.cn

2 260 ( ) 14 (PauwandThurlow2011) ( 1) (Cawleyetal.2001) 1 ( ) :(1) ; (2) : ( ) % % 17.55% % %

3 1 : 261 (RavalionandChen2007) (Lin1988;McMilanetal.1989) (Fan1991;Lin 1992;HuangandRozele1996) 2 2 ( ) : ; :RavalionandChen (2007) Barker (Barker1990) 2 : ;

4 262 ( ) (Almond2006;LinandLiu2014) (Almondand Ma- zumder2011) (MengandQian2006;Chen andzhou2007;muandzhang2011) 19 (Banerjeeetal.2010) (Roseboomet al.2001;ravelietal.1998;steinetal.1972) (CostaandLahey2005;Barreca2010) (Sand- ers2012) (Deschenesetal.2009; Macciniand Yang2009) (Batenetal.2014) MuandZhang (2011) Steinetal.(1972) (Lee 2012;Bleakley2007;Cutleretal.2009) (Currieand Hyson1999;BonoandErmisch 2009;AmpaabengandTan2013) : (Steinetal. 1972)

5 1 : 263 ( ) (DID) ( ) % : ; ; ; 1979 : ; DID Lin (1992) % % 80%

6 264 ( ) 14 ( )DID ; %; 35.9% (%)

7 1 : 265 ( ) :(1) ; (2) ; (3) : (%) :(1) ; (2) ; (3) :2006

8 266 ( ) 14 W T W 0 1T=0 0 7 T= i : C i =α0 +α1 W i +α2t i +α3 ( W i Ti ) +β X i +εi (1) C i i X i i 0 1 α3 ( ) ( ) i : C ij =α0 +α1 W i +β ' X i +γhrs ij +εi (2) i j ( )HRS ij ( ) HRS ij i j ( ) HRS ij i j ( ) ( ) HRS ( ) ( )

9 1 : : (18 ) % 0.74% (%) (%) % % % % % % % % % % :(1)1987 : ;2006 : ; (2) = / :

10 268 ( ) ( ) : (StraussandEyman1996) Tyreretal.(2007)

11 1 : (Silvermanetal.1998) Tyreretal.(2007) 20 (SMR) Leicestershire Rutland SMR= MRC MR C MR P MR P McGuiganetal.(1995) (Wandsworth;Kensington;Chelseaand Westminster) ; Ri06 e = R i87 (1- MRc )/( i j 1- ) ( MRpij 3) j=1 R i87 Ri06 e i MRc i j i j MRpij i j htp:// disability/ P10

12 270 ( ) (0 20 ) :

13 1 : ( )(0 70 ) : ( ) ; % Lin (1992) %

14 272 ( ) % ( ) ( ) ( ) (1) (2) i A B ( ) (2) γ((1) (4) (7) ) ((2) (5) (8) ) (1) DID α3((3) (6) (9) ) 4 DID ( ) 1% DID 1% ( ) 10% ( ) 10%

15 1 : 273!! "! "## "$# "%# "!# "&# " # "(# ")# "*# " # $ % +-#& """ "-!# +-#$$ """ "- # +-)( """ "- # $ % +-#$% """ "-&# +-#! """ "-(# +-# """ "-(#.! +-#( """ "-!# +-#$( """ "- # +-)& """ "- #! $ -#(% -#(& -#(%$ -#(! -#(!* -#(%* -#($% -#(&# -#($$ #!!% #&*$% ##$#)&& &!($) &&!(!% &) ))!!**#& &!!*% &%!*(#!!!!!!!!!!!!!!/! " # $ % +-$# "-#%# +-%& " "-#)# +-! "-#*# $ % +-! """ "-*# +-! """ "-#%# +-! """ "-#%#.! +-%( """ "-)# +-!) """ "-#$# +-$& "" "-#$#! $ -# )% -#) $ -#)#( -#(! -#*$$ -#)&* -#&) -#()# -#( # #&*&$$ $%&*#$ $&$!*# )!$(( #$%&*$ #%#*)& (&$!& ##$%$ #$&!!!"##& "$# ( & "%# """ #0 ) "" &0 ) " #0 & "!# &

16 274 ( ) 14!! "! "## "$# "%# "&# "!# " # "(# ")# "*# " # $ % +-# """ "-## +-* """ "-$# +-## """ "-$# $ % +-#$ """ "-$# +-#$ """ "-$# +-#$ """ "-$#.! +-* """ "-## +-## """ "-$# +-) """ "-$#! $ - &* -!#! - & # - &(# - &( - &%& -!$) -!(! - &* #&($) # #&( ##$$(!&((%&!!!$%!)(%(# &**!&!&*#(!%!%*!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!/! " # $ % +-! "-!# +- "- # +-% "-(# $ % +- "-&# +-% "-!# +-* " "-!#.! +-& "-%# +-! "-!# +-% "-!#! $ -!!% -!)! -) -!*$) - # -!* * -!%#% -! % -! #!*! $ $% $& $!$ % )&$*! #$% & #%$%* (!$ ( ##$%() #$! &!!!"##& "$# ( & "%# """ #0 ) ""!0 ) " #0 & "&# &

17 1 : 275!! "! "## "$# "%# "&# " # "!# "(# ")# "*# " # $ % +-* """ "-&# +-##% """ "-%#%# +-(! """ "-!# $ % +-### """ "-&# +-#$( """ "-!# +-* """ "-!#.! +-*) """ "-&# +-##! """ "-!# +-() """ "-!#! $ -%* -& -%) -&$ -&$ -& -%! -%( -%& #&($) #!#&( ##$$(!! &((%& $% )(%(# &** &! &*#( % %*!!!!!!!!!!!!!!/! " # $ % +-#! "-#$# +-$* " "-#(# +-# "-#(# $ % +-& """ "-)# +-&% """ "-#$# +-%( """ "-###.! +-%% """ "-)# +-&% """ "-### +-$# "" "-###! $ -## -( -) -#$ -) -* -( -! -( # *!$ $%!$& $ $!% )&$* #$%!&! #%$%* ( $!( ##$%() #$!&!!!"##& "$# ( & "%# """ #0 ) "" 0 ) " #0 & "&# &

18 276 ( ) 14 DID ( ) % (1987 ) 0.87% (2006 ) % (0.01/0.0134) DID ( ) 1% 6 DID ( ) 7 9 ( 7) ( 8) ( 9) DID ( ) ( 1 2) 7 9 ;

19 1 : ( ) A: *** (0.0003) * *** (0.0019) *** (0.0053) *** (0.0030) *** (0.0049) R B: ** * (0.0003) *** *** * *** *** (0.0020) *** (0.0055) *** (0.0030) *** (0.0050) R C: ( ) ( ) ** (0.0003) ** *** *** *** *** (0.0020) *** (0.0056) *** (0.0032) *** (0.0051) R :(1) (2) (3) *** 1% ; ** 5% ; * 10% (4)

20 278 ( ) 14 8 ( ) A: *** (0.0072) *** (0.0006) *** (0.0154) *** *** (0.0083) (0.0005) *** (0.0154) R B: * (0.0006) (0.0003) 0 (0.0006) *** *** (0.0075) * (0.0005) *** (0.0159) *** *** (0.0083) (0.0004) *** (0.0159) R C: ( ) ( ) (0.0008) (0.0003) (0.0007) *** *** (0.0099) (0.0007) *** (0.0194) * (0.0003) *** (0.0107) (0.0006) *** (0.0197) R :(1) (2) (3) *** 1% ; ** 5% ; * 10% (4) 9 ( ) A: *** (0.0019) *** (0.0003) *** (0.0053) *** (0.0030) * *** (0.0049) R

21 1 : 279 ( ) B: *** *** *** (0.0020) (0.0003) *** (0.0058) *** *** (0.0033) *** *** *** (0.0051) R C: ( ) ( ) (0.0003) * *** *** *** (0.0020) *** (0.0059) * *** (0.0033) *** *** (0.0052) R :(1) (2) (3) *** 1% ; ** 5% ; * 10% (4) 7 (McCabeetal.2006;RobinsonandRichdale2004) (Reissand Hal 2007;Ruedaetal.2009) B (htp:// ment)

22 280 ( ) B % 74.68% 0 2 ;

23 1 : 281 [1] AlmondD. Isthe1918InfluenzaPandemicOver Long-Term EfectsofIn-UteroInfluenzaExpo- sureinthepost-1940u.s.population Journalof PoliticalEconomy (4) [2] AlmondD.andB.Mazumder HealthCapitalandthePrenatalEnvironment:TheEfectofRa- madanobservanceduringpregnancy American EconomicJournal:Applied Economics20113 (4) [3] AmpaabengS.andC.Tan TheLong-term CognitiveConsequencesofEarlyChildhood Malnutri- tion:thecaseoffamineinghana Journalof Health Economics201332(6) [4] BatenJ.D.CrayenandH.Voth NumeracyandtheImpactofHighFoodPricesinIndustriali- zingbritain Review of Economicsand Statistics201496(3) [5] BanerjeeA.E.DufloG.Postel-Vinayand T.Wats Long-Run HealthImpactsofIncome Shocks:WineandPhyloxerainNineteenth-CenturyFrance Review of Economicsand Statistics (4) [6] BarkerD. TheFetalandInfantOriginsofAdultDisease British medicaljournal (6761)1111. [7] BarrecaA. TheLong-Term EconomicImpactofInUteroandPostnatalExposureto Malaria Journalof Human Resources201045(4) [8] BleakleyH. DiseaseandDevelopment:Evidencefrom Hookworm EradicationintheAmerican South Quarterly Journalof Economics (1) [9] CawleyJ.J.HeckmanandE.Vytlacil ThreeObservationson Wagesand MeasuredCognitive Ability Labour Economics20018(4) [10]ChenY.andL.Zhou TheLong-term HealthandEconomicConsequencesofthe FamineinChina Journalof Health Economics200726(4) [11]CostaD.andJ.Lahey PredictingOlderAge MortalityTrends Journalofthe European Eco- nomic Association20053(2 3) [12]CurrieJ.andR.Hyson IstheImpactofHealthShocksCushionedbySocioeconomicsStatus TheCaseofLowBirthweight American Economic Review199989(2) [13]CutlerD.W.FungM.KremerM.SinghalandT.Vogl Mosquitoes:theLong-term Efectsof MalariaEradicationinIndia NBER WorkingPaperseries [14]DelBonoE.andJ.Ermisch Birth WeightandtheDynamicsofEarlyCognitiveandBehavioural Development IZA DiscussionPaperNo [15]DeschenesO.M.GreenstoneandJ.Guryan ClimateChangeandBirth Weight American Eco- nomic Review200999(2) [16]FanS. EfectsofTechnologicalChangeandInstitutionalReformonProductionGrowthinChi- neseagriculture American Journalof AgriculturalEconomics199173(2) [17]GolinD.S.ParenteandR.Rogerson TheRoleofAgricultureinDevelopment The American Economic Review200292(2)

24 282 ( ) 14 [18]HeadeyD. TurningEconomicGrowthintoNutrition-SensitiveGrowth Reshaping Agriculture fornutritionandhealth.washingtondc:internationalfoodpolicyresearchinstitute2011. [19]HuangJ.andS.Rozele TechnologicalChange:RediscoveringtheEngineofProductivityGrowth inchina sruraleconomy Journalof DevelopmentEconomics199649(2) [20]LeeD. TheImpactofChildhoodHealthonAdultEducationalAtainment:Evidencefrom Manda- toryschoolvaccinationlaws WorkingPaperinNEUDC2012. [21]LinJ. TheHouseholdResponsibilitySysteminChina sagriculturalreform:a Theoreticaland EmpiricalStudy Economic Developmentand CulturalChange [22]LinJ. RuralReformsandAgriculturalGrowthinChina The American Economic Review (1) [23]LinM.andE.Liu Does inutero ExposuretoIlness Mater The1918InfluenzaEpidemicin TaiwanasaNaturalExperiment Journalof Health Economics [24]MacciniS.andD.Yang Underthe Weather:HealthSchoolingandEconomicConsequencesof Early-lifeRainfal The American Economic Review20099(3) [25]McCabeM.J.McGilivrayD.Newton EfectivenessofTreatmentProgramsforDepressiona- mongadultswith Mild/ModerateIntelectualDisability Journalof Intelectual Disability Re- search200650(4) [26]McGuiganS.S.Holinsand M.Atard Age-specificStandardized Mortality RatesinPeople withlearningdisability Journalof Intelectual Disability Research [27]McMilanJ.J.WhalyandL.Zhu TheImpactofChina seconomicreformson Agricultural ProductivityGrowth Journalof PoliticalEconomy [28]MengX.andN.Qian TheLongRun HealthandEconomicConsequencesofFamineonSurvi- vors:evidencefrom China sgreatfamine WorkingPaperBrownUniversity2006. [29]MuR.andX.Zhang WhydoestheGreatChineseFamineAfecttheMaleandFemaleSurvivors Diferently MortalitySelectionversusSonPreference Economicsand Human Biology20119 (1) [30]MurphyK.A.ShleiferandR.Vishny IncomeDistributionMarketSizeandIndustrialization Quarterly Journalof Economics (3) [31]PauwK.J.Thurlow TheRoleofAgriculturalGrowthinReducingPovertyand Hunger:the CaseofTanzania Reshaping Agriculturefor Nutritionand Health.WashingtonDC:Interna- tionalfoodpolicyresearchinstitute2011. [32]RaveliA.J.vander MeulenR.MichelsC.OsmondD.BarkerC.Halesand O.Bleker GlucoseToleranceinAdultsafterPrenatalExposuretoFamine The Lancet (9097) [33]RavalionM.andS.Chen China s(uneven)progressagainstpoverty Journalof Development Economics [34]ReissA.andS.Hal FragileXSyndrome:AssessmentandTreatmentImplications Child and AdolescentPsychiatricClinicsof North America200716(3)

25 1 : 283 [35]RestucciaD.D.Yangand X.Zhu Agricultureand AggregateProductivity:A Quantitative Cross-CountryAnalysis Journalof Monetary Economics [36]RobinsonA.andA.Richdale SleepProblemsinChildrenwithanIntelectualDisability:Paren- talperceptionsofsleepproblemsandviewsoftreatmentefectiveness Child:CareHealthand Development200430(2) [37]RoseboomT.J.vanderMeulenC.OsmondD.BarkerA.RaveliandO.Bleker AdultSur- vivalafterprenatalexposuretothedutchfamine Paediatricand PerinatalEpide- miology200115(3) [38]RuedaJ.J.Balesterosand M.Tejada SystematicReview ofpharmacologicaltreatmentsin FragileXSyndrome BMC Neurology20099(1)53. [39]SandersN. Whatdoesn tkilyou Makesyou WeakerPrenatalPolutionExposureandEduca- tionaloutcomes Journalof Human Resources201247(3) [40]SilvermanW.W.ZigmanH.KimS.Krinsky-McHaleandH.Wisniewski AgingandDemen- tiaamongadultswith MentalRetardationandDownSyndrome Topicsin Geriatric Rehabilita- tion199813(3) [41]SteinZ.M.SusserG.SaengerandF.Marola Nutritionand MentalPerformance Science (62) [42]StraussD.andR.Eyman MortalityofPeoplewith MentalRetardationinCaliforniawithand withoutdownsyndrome American Journalon MentalRetardation (6) [43]TyrerF.L.SmithandC.McGrother MortalityinAdultswith ModeratetoProfoundIntelec- tualdisability:a Population-basedStudy Journalof Intelectual Disability Research (7) AgricultureGrowthandCognitiveAbility Development:Evidencefrom China s AgriculturalReform MENGQI NIU XIAOBO ZHANG * (Peking University) Abstract Existingstudiesonagriculturalreform haveneglecteditsefectonhealth. ThispapercomplementsthembyexaminingtheefectofChina sagriculturalreformoncogni- * Corresponding Author:XiaoboZhangNationalSchoolofDevelopmentHaidian DistrictBeijing China;Tel: ; X.zhang@nsd.pku.edu.cn.

26 284 ( ) 14 tiveability.usingdatafromthesurveyofdisabledpopulationofchinain1987and2006we findthattheincidenceofcognitivedisabilityofcohortsaged8 20declinedby1.34percent- agepointsduringthetimeperiodofwhichtheagriculturalreform accountsfor74.68%. Thisfindingsupportsthe fetaloriginhypothesis andimpliesthattheimpactofagricultural reform mightbedeeperandbroaderthanpreviousstudieshavecontended. JELClasification I12I18J24

66 ( ) 14 ( ; ChenandCowel2013; ) Dengetal.(2013) BeckerandTomes(1979) ( ) BeckerandTomes(1985) ( ) 3 MayerandLopoo (2008) (CH

66 ( ) 14 ( ; ChenandCowel2013; ) Dengetal.(2013) BeckerandTomes(1979) ( ) BeckerandTomes(1985) ( ) 3 MayerandLopoo (2008) (CH 14 1 2014 10 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.14No.1 October2014 * ; BeckerandTomes(1979) 2013 0.473 XieandZhou (2014) 0.53 0.55 ; * : 5 100871; :15801363830;E-mail:zhouguangsu@126.com (Kxjc-jc-2011003)