898 ( ) 17 ;,, (quantity-qualitytrade-of) Gary Becker BeckerandLewis(1973) [Wilis(1973) ], (budgetconstraint) (creditmarketfailure),,, ( ),,, (Glicket

Transcription

1 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.17,No.3 April,2018 1*, %,,,,,,, DOI: /j.cnki.ceq ,, 20 70,,,,, (,2008;,2013),,, (,2011;,2010),, :, * 1, ;, :, 305,98195; : ; [email protected], [email protected] ( ) (16JDLJB001)

2 898 ( ) 17 ;,, (quantity-qualitytrade-of) Gary Becker BeckerandLewis(1973) [Wilis(1973) ], (budgetconstraint) (creditmarketfailure),,, ( ),,, (Glicketal., 2005;Lietal.,2008;RosenzweigandZhang,2009;Hatonand Martin, 2010;Liu,2014), (Blacket al.,2005;park and Chung,2012) (Qian,2009; LordanandFrijters,2013), Blacketal.(2005),,, ;,, ( ) ParkandChung(2012) MHSS,, ;,,, (, ) Qian (2009) CHNS ;, LordanandFrijters(2013), ( ),,,,

3 3 : 899 ;,,, (IV), IV (Glicketal.,2005;Liet al.,2008;angristetal.,2010;hatonand Martin,2010) (Qian,2009;ParkandChung,2012;Cameronetal.,2013),,,,, IV, IV :,,, ;,,, (regressiondiscontinuitydesign,rdd) RDD,,,,, IV,RDD,,, RDD,, RDD (natural experiment), % RDD, 20 80, Q-Q RDD RDD, (DID) :(1) (RDD), ;(2) BeckerandLewis(1973) Wilis (1973), ;(3)

4 900 ( ) 17, ; (4), : ; ;, ; ;, ( ), ( ) ( ) ( ), ( ) 1975 ( ) ( ) ( , , 4 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1995 1, 14 ) ( ) ( , ) ( ) 2013, ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) : (2003) (2010),

5 3 : 901, :,, :, ;,, RDD ; 1 1, RDD, RDD 20 70, : (Zhang and Spencer,1992;Li,1995;,2003;,2010; Cameronetal.,2013) (,2003)2 2,, :, ( );,, 3 10 (Banister,1987;Cooneyetal.,1991;LiandCooney,1993) 3 3 :, 4 4, 1979 (, ), 1980 (,2014),, (complier),, ,, ;,, (Ebenstein,2010) 4 4, ( )

6 902 ( ) 17,,, % , 1 :, ; (RDD) (DID) RDD,, (treatmentefect) ( ) 0 1, (AngristandLavy, 1999;VanderKlaauw,2002;,2010;,2011; Chenetal.,2013)

7 3 : 903 (assignmentvariable)x ( ) 1 5, (outcomevariable)y ( ), (treatmentvariable)d ( D=1, D=0) (1) ( ) : τ= lim x c lim x c E[Y X]-lim E[Y X] x c E [ D X ]-lim E [ D X ]. (1) x c Wald c, c c ( ±h),, (1) (complier,,, 26 ) (localaveragetreatmentefect,late) (1), (IV), (ImbensandLemieux,2008;LeeandLemieux,2010) RDD ( T, T=1, T=0), T D IV, (2SLS) D Y 37 : Y =θ+τd +f(x -c)+ε, (2) D =γ+δt +g(x -c)+u. (3) (2) (3) 2SLS,δ ;γ θ ;f( ) g( ), ; X T D, f( ) g( ) ;u ε, T, τ : 5 1, (bin) 6 2, (defier), (monotonicity) ;,,, 7 3, RDD,γ=0,α=0, δ=1

8 904 ( ) 17 τ= N i=1 N i=1 (T i - 珡 T)(Y i - 珚 Y) (T i - 珡 T)(X i - 珡 X) = E [Y c< X c+h]-e[y c-h X c] E[D c< X c+h]-e[d c-h X c]. (4) (4) (1), ( ), (kerneldensity estimation), (one-sided kernel regression) (pointestimate), Wald : lim x c lim x c lim x c lim x c E[Y X]= E[Y X]= E[D X]= E[D X]= Y i K((X i -x)/h) i:x i >c K((X i -x)/h), ( 5) i:x i >c Y i K((X i -x)/h) i:x i <c K((X i -x)/h), ( 6) i:x i <c D i K((X i -x)/h) i:x i >c K((X i -x)/h), ( 7) i:x i >c D i K((X i -x)/h) i:x i <c i:x i <c K ((X i -x)/h). (8) (5) (8) h ImbensandKalyanaraman(2012) (mean squarederror) (optimalbandwidth) K ( ) (kernelfunction), (trianglekernel) (FanandGijbels,1996;LeeandLemieux,2010),, (rectangularkernel) RDD, (,covariate, W ), LATE (LeeandLemieux,2010), RDD :, RDD,, RDD ;,

9 3 : 905 (samplingvariability), RDD, 8 1 DID RDD : D, (T=0) (T=1),,, ( ) (averagetreatmentefect,ate) Y =β 0 + β 1D + β 2T + β 3 (D T)+β 4W +e. (9) (9),,(D T), β %,, 2000, 1%, ( ), 31 ( ) /5, 260, ( ) ( ) 29, (2003) 8 1 : Y W, Y Y * =Y-Y LeeandLemieux(2010), W D ( W ), W Y τ, W, RDD 9 2 5, 3 ( ), 3

10 906 ( ) ;,, ;,, 5,, 30681, ( 3, ) 2 3,, 211,, ( 11.96, ) (22 28 ), ,, (compensatedyearsofeducation),,,, (Bucklesand Hungerman,2013; AngristandKrueger,1991),,,,,, 2 1 (bin),, ( ), (2003),,, 11 2, ( ), ( 14 ), , 2005, 13 4,,,

11 3 : eduyear yhat ( ) * (2.889) (2.894) (2.517) ( ) * (2.883) (2.873) (2.515) nosibs ( =1, =0) * (0.487) (0.000) (0.000) healthy married male ( =1, =0) (0.057) (0.060) (0.051) ( =1, =0) * (0.486) (0.496) (0.459) ( =1, =0) (0.500) (0.500) (0.500) N : * 5% ; 2 :, ; RDD, (covariate),

12 908 ( ) , (GB/T2260), (2010) (1,0 ) 2, ( ) ( ) - (education-healthgradient) (Smith,2004),,, RDD, (Zengetal.,1993;DasGupta,2005; Ebenstein,2010;Lietal.,2011), (3 ), ; ( ),,,, ( 43.5% 30.2%),, (entropybalancing)2 15,, RDD, ( ) 1 2, RDD LeeandLemieux(2010), RDD (1) (5) (8) LATE, 3 (1) ;, RDD, 3 (2) RDD, ;, ,, 15 2, ( ), Hainmueler(2012)

13 3 : 909 (3) (rectangularkernel) RDD 3 (4), RDD (1) (2) (3) (4) *** ** *** ** (0.099) (0.120) (0.101) (0.115) *** *** *** ** (0.017) (0.020) (0.0174) (0.021) LATE ** ** *** * (2.396) (2.560) (1.849) (3.031) : *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; (standarderror) bootstrap ; LATE( Wald ) ; ImbensandKalyanaraman(2012) ; (4),, 3 (2) (4) 3 (1) :, 5% ( Wald ); 2005 ( ), 0.3 ( Wald ) Wald,, (LATE), ( ) 3,, 5.5,, - BeckerandLewis(1973),,, 1,,, :, RDD,,

14 910 ( ) 17,,,,, :(1),, -,,, ( ) (2),, ;RDD LATE,,, ( ), (3) LATE ( ) (cumulativeefect), (marginal efect), ;, LATE ( ) ( ), RDD,, RDD, ( IV,RDD, ),,,, ,, ( RDD ), ( RDD ),, RDD

15 3 : 911,, (McCrary,2008;ImbensandLemieux,2008):,, McCrary(2008) LeeandLemieux(2010), 3 ( ),,, McCrary(2008), 0.012( 0.042), ( ), 3 : McCrary(2008) DCdensity, 95%, ( ) :,, RDD (locallinearregression),, 4,

16 912 ( ) 17 4 ( RDD ) male (0.023) (0.027) (0.020) (0.016) married (0.023) (0.026) (0.019) (0.015) healthy (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) :, RDD, ; 3 (1), RDD ( ):, RDD, ( ) 1, 5 RDD,,LATE, 3 RDD, ( ) 5 RDD (0.092) (0.103) (0.132) (0.113) * (0.015) (0.017) (0.0229) (0.020) LATE (3.223) (22.78) (3.865) (15.51) :(1), ;(2) LATE ( ) ( ) 3 (1) : 18 24,, :, 5,, ;,RDD (complier),, RDD, LATE, 2SLS,

17 3 : 913 (2) (3), (T), 2SLS 6 ( 6 3 (1) (2),, ) 3 (1) (2), 2SLS LATE, 6 RDD (IV/2SLS ) 2.4 (1) 1 (2) 2 (3) 3 (4) *** * *** *** (1.777) (3.058) (1.662) (1.008) * * ** * (3.239) (2.452) (3.476) (3.170) : *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; (robuststandard error); (2) D ( ); (1) (2.4 ) ImbensandKalyanaraman(2012) ( 3 (1) ) ( ) DID ( ) 7 (9) : 6, ;, LATE, (ATE), RDD, ( ),,,, 7 DID 2.4 (1) 2 (2) 3 (3) 5 (4) *** *** *** *** (0.086) (0.092) (0.078) (0.065) *** ** *** *** (0.082) (0.088) (0.074) (0.063) : *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; (robuststandard error); (9) D T ; (1) (2.4 ) ImbensandKalyanaraman(2012) ( 3 (1) )

18 914 ( ) 17 ( ) (placebo), RDD,, 1999 : (2011), 1980,, :, ;,, 3 (1) :,, (, ), 8,, (1) 1 (2) 2 (3) 3 (4) (0.208) (0.324) (0.227) (0.183) (0.023) (0.035) (0.025) (0.020) LATE (25.98) (14.63) (18.31) (26.37) :(1) 3 (1) ; (2) *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; (standarderror) bootstrap ; LATE( Wald ) (triangle kernel) ; (1) ImbensandKalyanaraman(2012), 3 (1) ( ),

19 3 : 915,, 9,, RDD,,, (1) 1 (2) 2 (3) 3 (4) (0.066) (0.102) (0.073) (0.060) (0.008) (0.012) (0.009) (0.007) LATE (9.066) (8.464) (8.914) (7.697) :(1) 3 (1) ;(2) *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; (standarderror) bootstrap ; LATE( Wald ) (trianglekernel) ; (1) ImbensandKalyanaraman(2012) :,,, -,, ( ), ( ) 10, RDD, 5% 1%; 18 1, ,,

20 916 ( ) 17, ;,RDD 10 RDD *** *** (0.114) (0.172) (0.156) *** ** *** (0.020) (0.029) (0.030) LATE *** ** (1.910) (4.863) (1.921) :(1), ( );(2) , ImbensandKalyanaraman(2012) ;(3) LATE ( ) ( ) 3 (1),,,,,,, ( ), (Zengetal.,1993;Das Gupta,2005;Ebenstein,2010;Lietal., 2011),, 3,,, RDD,,, BeckerandLewis(1973), Q-Q,, ( ), ( ), - 10,,LATE,,

21 3 : ( ), , RDD, LATE, Q-Q RDD *** * ** (0.141) (0.130) (0.138) (0.128) * ** * ** (0.027) (0.020) (0.025) (0.020) LATE ** * (3.329) (3.136) (3.454) (3.218) :(1) , ImbensandKalyanaraman(2012) ;(2) LATE ( ) ( ) 3 BeckerandLewis(1973), ( ),,, 11, ( ) ( ),,,,,, 321, 19 1,,, GDP ( ), ( ),

22 918 ( ) 17 11,, RDD, ;, LATE,,Q-Q,,,, Q-Q, ( ),,,,,,Q- Q,,,, -, -,, 20 70,,,,,, (RDD), ( ) RDD,,

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26 922 ( ) 17 TheImpactofBirthControlPolicy onoffspring seducationlevel: MicroeconomicEvidencefrom China XUEZHENG QIN RUDAI YANG (Peking University) CASTIELCHEN ZHUANG 1* (Universityof Washington) Abstract Theefectoftherecent two-child policy hasatractedanew waveof atention.usingthe2005 China sinter-census1% populationsurveydataand multiple econometricmethods,weidentifythecausalrelationshipbetweenquantityandqualityof populationin China. The results suggest that being a single child increased his/her educationalatainment,butthisefectwasonlyevidentinregionswithlowerincomeandless developedcredit markets. With China s economic development,relaxing households constraintsoninvestmentinofspring shumancapitalmayeasethenegativeimpactsofa country-wide relaxation of birth control and thus may promote sustainable economic development. Key Words birthcontrol,educationlevel,regressiondiscontinuitydesign JELClasification J13,D13,I20 * CorrespondingAuthor:CastielChenZhuang,UW 1 Economics,Savery HalRoom305,Seatle,WA 98195,UnitedStates.Tel: ; [email protected],[email protected]