6 ( ) 14 : : % %; %; : % 54.3% (Becker1975; Card1999) (Lle- ras-muney2002;cu

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1 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.14No.1 October2014 : * : ; ; (16 59 ) % 1 2 * ; : ; : ; wuyw@cass.org.cn : % 25% %( )

2 6 ( ) 14 : : % %; %; : % 54.3% (Becker1975; Card1999) (Lle- ras-muney2002;currieand Moreti2003;Lochnerand Moreti2004; Lefgrenand McIntyre2006;Liu2009;Boschinietal.2011) : ; (Becker1974) % ;23 70% % ( ) ;

3 1 : 7 ( ): : ( ) : ( ) : :

4 8 ( ) % ( :%) : (IsenandStevenson2010;Goldsteinand Kenney2001)

5 1 : 9 : ; % 70% 50% 44% 46% 2 ( :%) : 35 ; 34 (ChooandSiow2006Schw- artzand Mare2005) (Abramitzkyetal.2011)

6 10 ( ) 14 : % %; 64.4% 65%; 48.1% 48.6% : ( :%) : % : % %; % %; % % 5 :

7 1 : ( ) ( 4) : % %; 76.5% 61.8% 25 40% 4 ( :%) :1990 ; : (1) : ( ) 9 : % % % % % % 9 ( )

8 12 ( ) 14 (2) ; : % ; % ; ; : ; (2005 ) :35 4.5% /8 1: : M i =α+t i β+c i γ+t i C i δ+εi. (1) (1) : 1 0; ;C i T i

9 1 : 13 ( ) 1; ( ) ( ) (1) : M i =a+t iβ 1 +C iβ 2 +E iβ 3 +T ic iδ1 +T ie iδ2 +C ie iδ3 +T ic ie iγ+e i. (2) E i 0 1 (1) δ (2) γ 2: : % : Y h i =a+e i b+x i c+e i. (3) (3) Yi h ( ); E i X i (3) (3) E i (Angristand Krueger1991;Lef- grenand McIntyre2006) (2010) ( ) 5.6 ( ) ( )

10 14 ( ) : ( ) ; ( ) (Al- waystaker) ; ( ) (Complier) : ( ) 11 1% 2%

11 1 : ( ) : : : 12 5 (OLS ) : ( : ) (0.004) (0.005) (0.010) (0.007) (0.004) (0.004) (0.002) (0.006) (0.006) (0.002) (0.004) (0.004) (0.008) (0.007) (0.005) (0.003) (0.005) (0.004) (0.006) (0.003) :

12 16 ( ) 14 ( ) : ( 6) ( ) : ( ) : 12.8% 9.8% 6 ( : 1; 0) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.005) (0.003) (0.003) (0.006) (0.026) (0.001) (0.002) (0.003) (0.010) (0.002) (0.003) (0.005) (0.020) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.012) : ; ;

13 1 : 17 : (25 ) : ; γ ; 6.6 ; ( : 1; 0) (0.002) (0.003) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.004) (0.012) (0.004) (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.006 (0.007) (0.007) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.005) (0.013) (0.005) (0.002) (0.003) (0.002) (0.003) (0.005) (0.003) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.008) (0.016) (0.010) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.010) (0.019) (0.013) (0.003) (0.005) (0.004) OBS : ; 5 ; 4 1% 2% 1% : ; :

14 18 ( ) 14 ( ) : : (0.021) (0.035) (0.026) (0.008) (0.011) (0.012) (0.058) (0.112) (0.068) (0.018) (0.030) (0.023) (0.055) (0.075) (0.066) (0.018) (0.024) (0.027) (0.070) (0.131) (0.082) (0.022) (0.036) (0.029) (0.027) (0.042) (0.034) (0.011) (0.015) (0.017) (0.078) (0.136) (0.096) (0.023) (0.036) (0.030) (0.093) (0.160) (0.117) (0.029) (0.044) (0.038) OBS : (2) γ 9 γ :

15 1 : 19 9 ( γ ) (0.066) (0.101) (0.080) (0.013) (0.019) (0.016) (0.052) (0.070) (0.072) (0.012) (0.017) (0.017) (0.041) (0.050) (0.057) (0.011) (0.015) (0.015) (0.033) (0.050) (0.045) (0.010) (0.012) (0.014) (0.029) (0.040) (0.041) (0.008) (0.011) (0.012) (0.029) (0.042) (0.040) (0.007) (0.010) (0.010) (0.024) (0.038) (0.031) (0.006) (0.010) (0.009) (0.020) (0.031) (0.026) (0.006) (0.009) (0.008) (0.020) (0.041) (0.022) (0.006) (0.009) (0.007) (0.018) (0.038) (0.021) (0.005) (0.009) (0.007) (0.018) (0.027) (0.024) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007) OBS (0.011) (0.021) (0.013) (0.003) (0.005) (0.004) OBS * (0.011) (0.035) (0.010) (0.003) (0.008) (0.004) : 1; γ γ 0 γ γ ; 25

16 20 ( ) γ 1% 3% : ;30 34 ( ) γ γ (split) ( ) ( ) γ : γ (Di- NardoandLee2011) ( ) γ

17 1 : ( :1 ;0 ) (0.005) (0.009) (0.006) (0.003) (0.005) (0.004) (0.006) (0.011) (0.008) (0.004) (0.006) (0.006) (0.005) (0.011) (0.006) (0.003) (0.006) (0.004) : ; 0 1; : ; : ( ) ( ) : ( )

18 22 ( ) : ; ( : 1; 0) (1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.018) (0.019) (0.021) (0.027) (0.028) (0.030) (0.006) (0.006) (0.008) (0.007) (0.008) (0.010) (0.033) (0.033) (0.032) (0.038) (0.038) (0.038) (0.011) (0.011) (0.013) (0.017) (0.018) (0.020) (0.021) (0.022) (0.025) (0.031) (0.032) (0.034) (0.039) (0.040) (0.044) (0.048) (0.050) (0.056) (0.027) (0.029) (0.035) (0.041) (0.043) (0.049) : : ( ) : : GoldinandRouse(2000) GoldinandKatz(2002)

19 1 : (1) ; (2) ; (3) (1) ; ; : 2 3 (1) ; (2) 2005 (-7.3%) ; (3) -10% 7 : 17 :

20 24 ( ) ( ) OLS (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) 2SLS (0.246) (0.130) (0.038) (0.178) (0.200) (0.533) (0.011) C-DF H-Jtest OLS (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.000) 2SLS (0.406) (0.111) (0.043) (0.169) (0.258) (0.448) (0.011) C-DF H-Jtest :2005 1% OLS 6.6%;2SLS 13.7% (Card 1999) : 9.3% (OLS) 21.1% (2SLS); 11.5% 40.8% 2SLS 2SLS F (LATE) OLS 4.6% U Hansen (

21 1 : ) 23% OLS 11.7%2SLS 16% OLS 14.4% 20.2%;2SLS 22.3% 45.4% F 5.68 OLS U % : 90% ( 92% 94%); 89% : 3 4 ;

22 26 ( ) 14 : : Lefgren and McIntyre (2006) 2002 : (Nevertaker) (Complier) : % 18.5%

23 1 : 27 (Goldinetal.2006) (Bertrandetal.2010) : (Currieand Moreti2003; LiuandNordstr mskans2010) Bertrandetal.(2010) MBA (Bertrand2013)

24 28 ( ) 14 : [1] AbramitzkyR.A.DelavandeandL.Vasconcelos MarryingUp:TheRoleofSexRatioin Assortative Matching American Economic Journal:Applied Economics (July) [2] AngristJ.andA.Krueger DoesCompulsorySchoolAtendanceafectSchoolingandEarn- ings Quarterly Journalof Economics [3] BeckerG. A TheoryofMarriage NBER Working Paper.No [4] BeckerG. HumanCapital:A TheoreticalandEmpiricalAnalysiswithSpecialReferencetoEd- ucation Universityof Chicago Press1975. [5] BertrandM. CareerFamilyandthe Wel-BeingofColege-Educated Women American Eco- nomic Review Papers & Proceedings2013May. [6] BertrandM.C.GoldinandL.Katz DynamicsoftheGenderGapforYoungProfessionalsin thefinancialandcorporatesectors American EconomicJournal:Applied Economics20102 (July) [7] BoschiniA.C.HakansonA.RosenandA.Sjogren TradingoforHavingitAl Completed Fertilityand Mid-CareerEarningsofSwedish Menand Women WorkingPaperStockholm Uni- versity2011. [8] CaiF. OverEducationorOverEmployment CaiJing2014May12.(inChinese) [9] CardD. TheCausalEfectofEducationonEarnings inashenfeltero.andd.card(eds.) Handbookof Labor Economics Volume3A.Amsterdam:Elsevier1999. [10]ChooE.andS.Aloysius Who Marries Whomand Why Journalof PoliticalEconomy (1) [11]CurrieJ.andE.Moreti Mother seducationandtheintergenerationaltransmissionofhu- mancapital:evidencefrom ColegeOpenings The Quarterly Journalof Economics (4)

25 1 : 29 [12]DiNardoJ.andD.Lee Program EvaluationandResearchDesign Handbookof Labor Eco- nomics.vol.4a.north HolandisanimprintofElsevier2011. [13]GoldinC.andC.Rouse OrchestratingImpartiality:TheImpactof Blind AuditionsonFe- malemusicians The American Economic Review200090(4)(Sep.) [14]GoldinC.andL.Katz ThePowerofthePil:OralContraceptivesand Women scareerand MarriageDecisions Journalof PoliticalEconomy (4)(August) [15]GoldinC.L.KatzandI.Kuziemko TheHomecomingofAmericanColege Women:TheRe- versalofthecolegegendergap TheJournalof Economic Perspectives200620(4)(Fal) [16]GoldsteinJ.andK.Catherine MarriageDelayedorMarriageForgone New CohortForecasts offirstmarriageforu.s.women American SociologicalReview200166(4) [17]Isen.A.andB.Stevenson Women seducationandfamilybehavior:trendsin MarriageDi- vorceandfertility NBER Working PaperNo [18]LefgrenL.andF.McIntyre TheRelationshipbetween Women seducationand MarriageOut- comes Journalof Labor Economics (4)(October) [19]LiuQ. Can WeHaveitAl MarriageandtheReturnstoEducationinSweden Working Pa- peruppsalauniversity2009. [20]LiuQ.andO.NordstromSkans TheDurationofPaidParentalLeaveandChildren sscholastic Performance The B.E.Journalof Economic Analysis & Policy201010(1)1 35. [21]Lleras-MuneyA. The Relationship between Education and Adult Mortalityinthe United States NBER Working Paper No [22]LochnerL.andE.Moreti TheEfectofEducationonCrime:Evidencefrom PrisonInmates ArrestsandSelf-Reports American Economic Review200494(1)(Mar) [23]SchwartzC.andR.Mare TrendsinEducationalAssortativeMarriagefrom1940to2003 De- mography [24] WangJ.Y.ZhouY.GaoN.DongL.LiuandX.Yang ReviewofInvestigativeAnalysis ofdisabledchildrenfrom intheProvinceofHeilongjiang ChineseJournalof Family Planning (inChinese) [25]WuY. SearchforArchimedes Lever:IsQuarter-of-BirthRealya WeakInstrumentalVaria- ble China Economic Quarterly20109(2) (inChinese) [26] WuY.andQ.Zhao HigherEducationExpansionandEmploymentofUniversityGraduates Economic Research Journal (inChinese) [27]ZhengY.andG.Geng HealthCareduringPregnancyforElderAgedPregnancy Chinese Journalof PracticalGynecology and Obstetrics200622(10) (inChinese)

26 30 ( ) 14 TheImpactofHigherEducationExpansiononthe MarriageMarket:SingleWomen SingleMen YAOWU WU * (Chinese Academyof SocialScience) QIAN LIU (The EconomistGroup) Abstract ThispaperevaluatestheimpactofChinesecolegeenrolment sexpansionto themarriagemarket.thepolicyfrom1999hasrapidlyincreasedhighereducation sscaleand femalestudents ratiowithnoticeablelowermarriageratessince.wehypothesizethata)a postponedentryintomarriagemarketsshortensthesearchingtimeandenhancesfailurerates; b)ashifttofemale-dominanthighereducationsystemincreasesmatchingdificultiesunder traditionalassortativemating;andc)higherincomeforwomenreducesthepotentialbenefits from marriages.diference-in-diferenceanalysisofcensusandurbansurveybetween2000and 2009suggestasignificantlynegativeassociationofcolegeexpansionwithmarriagemarkets. JELClasification J12J10I23 * CorrespondingAuthor:Wu YaowuRoom1012ZhongYeBuilding28Shu GuangXiLiChao Yang DistrictBeijing100028China;Tel: ; wuyw@cass.org.cn.

66 ( ) 14 ( ; ChenandCowel2013; ) Dengetal.(2013) BeckerandTomes(1979) ( ) BeckerandTomes(1985) ( ) 3 MayerandLopoo (2008) (CH

66 ( ) 14 ( ; ChenandCowel2013; ) Dengetal.(2013) BeckerandTomes(1979) ( ) BeckerandTomes(1985) ( ) 3 MayerandLopoo (2008) (CH 14 1 2014 10 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.14No.1 October2014 * ; BeckerandTomes(1979) 2013 0.473 XieandZhou (2014) 0.53 0.55 ; * : 5 100871; :15801363830;E-mail:zhouguangsu@126.com (Kxjc-jc-2011003)