Griliches(1980) U Segerstrom(1991) (2015) Carboni(2011) [ ] Aerts & Schmidt (2008) (CIS Iand IV) (2013) ( ) ; (2013) ; (2

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1 * : % 26.58% : 1% 10%~ 15% 2015 (R&D) ( 600 ) 10 R&D 2.08% 2013 R&D % R&D 74.6% 2013 R&D : * : :nk94zhang@pku.edu.cn; : :jiayingliukate@pku.edu.cnhezonghui@pku.edu.cn (15ZDA007) 28

2 Griliches(1980) U Segerstrom(1991) (2015) Carboni(2011) [ ] Aerts & Schmidt (2008) (CIS Iand IV) (2013) ( ) ; (2013) ; (2015) (2003) Jones & Wiliams(1998) 1 (2014) 254 ;Levy & Terleckyj (1983) : ;Mukoyama 2 (2003) 2: ;Clausen(2009) 2002 (CIS3) 29

3 +β 2 xiti (qit >γ)+εit (1) yit x εit 3 3: I( ) (IndicatorFunction) I( ) 1 0 x it (γ)= x iti (γ) β=( β 1 β 2 ) (1) : yit =μ i + β x it (γ)+εit (2) εit 0 σ 2 εit~i.i.d(0σ 2 )id (2) 4 γ 4: (OLS) S 1 (γ)=e t et S 1 (γ) γ (3) : γ =argmin S 1 (γ) (3) γ 5 5: : H0: β 1=β ; 2 H1: β 1 β 2 H 0 (1) (4) : yit =μ i + β (4) 1 xit +εit OLS β 槇 1 β1 e 槇 it S 0=e 槇 it e 槇 it F : 5 F 1 = ( S 0 -S 1 (γ )) σ = ( S 0 -S 1 (γ )) (5) 2 S 1 (γ ) 5.1: n(t -1) F 5.2: F (Bootstrap) F ( ) P Hansen(1999) : (1) H0:γ=γ0 ; : yit =μ i + β 1 xiti (qit γ) 30 qit γ β 1 β 2 x it H1:γ γ0 (6) :

4 LR 1 (γ)= ( S 1 (γ)-s 1 (γ )) (6) σ 2 LR 1 (γ) Hansen (4) (1999) (7) : :(1) ;(2) ( ) F (5) F C(α)=-2log(1- 槡 (1-α )) (7) α LR 1 (γ)> (5) C(α) α γ =γ0 ( ) : :LNSIZE :(1) ;(2) ;LEVERAGE ;(3) 1 ;FAD ; zjmd ;jytrqd Bootstrap (5) P (1) 1 1 : ; IT ; (2) (3) ; P 31

5 % 95% 3 99% 90% 1 3 OLS ( 2) 2 (8) ; (9) 1 F P F P F P F P *** *** *** *** *** % 5% 10% 2 OLS OLS P P FAD LEVERAGE LNSIZE zjmd jytrqd Ginv Ginv Ginv Ginv R *** [ ] *** [ ] *** [ ] *** [ ] *** [ ] *** [ ] *** [ ] 1% 5% 10% 32

6 yit =μ i + β 1x iti(qit γ1) +β 2x iti(γ1 <qit γ2) +β 3x iti(qit >γ2)+contr+εit (8) yit =μ i + β 1x iti(qit γ1)+β 2x iti(qit >γ2) 3.11% +contr+εit (9) yit ( )x it ( )qit ( )contr ( )εit γ [ ] β 1 β 2 x it I( ) I( ) 1 0 (8) (9) ( ) %

7 88.32% GDP ( 5) P P P FAD *** *** LEVERAGE *** *** LNSIZE * *** zjmd *** * jytrqd *** *** *** Ginv *** *** *** Ginv *** *** Ginv *** *** R % 5% 10% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 34

8 [ ] [ ]; [ % ] [ ] 40.68% [ ] ; 13.54% 90% 95% 99% F P F P *** * * % 5% 10% 7 95% 95% *** [ ] * [ ] * [ ] * [ ] 1% 5% 10% 8 P P FAD *** *** LEVERAGE *** ** LNSIZE zjmd *** *** jytrqd *** ** Ginv *** *** Ginv *** *** Ginv *** *** R % 5% 10% 35

9 ( 11) % 68.73% % 16.6% 19.15% 48.36% 14.7% 36.91% 62.39% 18.6% 18.93% 54.27% 16.7% 29.01% 10 95% 95% *** [ ] *** [ ] 11 P P FAD *** *** LEVERAGE *** LNSIZE *** zjmd jytrqd *** *** Ginv *** *** Ginv * *** *** R

10 ( ) ( 12) [ ] [ ] % 13.60% : ( 37) % 95% *** [ ] *** [ ] 1% 5% 10% 13 P P FAD *** *** LEVERAGE ** *** LNSIZE zjmd jytrqd *** *** Ginv *** *** Ginv *** *** ** R % 5% 10% ;F P 300 Bootstrap 37

11 OLS : 2013: : : : : [ ] : [ ] [0 AertsK.& T.Schmidt(2008) Twoforthepriceofone ] Research Policy37(5): CarboniO.A.(2011) R&DsubsidiesandprivateR&Dex- penditures:evidencefromitalianmanufacturingdata Inter- nationalreview of Applied Economics25(4): ClausenT.H.(2009) Dosubsidieshavepositiveimpactson R&Dandinnovationactivitiesatthefirmlevel Structural : Changeand Economic Dynamics20(4): ; GrilichesZ.(1980) R&Dandtheproductivitylowdown American Economic Review 70(2): % 28.87%; HansenB.E.(1999) Thresholdefectsinnon-dynamicpan- els:estimationtestingandinference Journalofecono metrics93(2): % 19.56% JonesC.I.&J.C.Wiliams(1998) Measuringthesocialre- : turnto R&D Quarterly Journalof Economics113(4): P 0.78 LevyD.M.& N.E.Terleckyj(1983) Efectsofgovernment R&DonprivateR&Dinvestmentandproductivity:A macroeco- 3 nomicanalysis BelJournalof Economics14(2): % MukoyamaT.(2003) Innovationimitationandgrowthwith 4 cumulativetechnology Journalof Monetary Economics 50 34~41 43 (2): SegerstromP.S.(1991) Innovationimitationandeconomic 5 growth Journalof PoliticalEconomy99(4): ( : ) 38

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