:,,,,,, : 1990,,?,,,,, 2000 (,2004) :1990,,,,,2000, (,2008),,,,,,,,, 1990,,,, 4, 10, ( ) 90,,,,, 2000,,, ,2000,, % % ;,

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1 :,, CHIP,,, 12 %,,,,, :,,,,1990,,,,,, % %,,, , 69 %, ( Duesenbery Friedman Modigliani Hall ),, ( Leland,1968 ;Miller,1976 ; Kimball,1990 ), NLS PSID, ( Caballero, 1991 ; Carroll, 1994 ; Kazarosian, 1997 ), Dardanoni (1991) FES -, 1990 (1999), (2004) (2008),, :, 3,, :411105, gmail. com ; ( ),, :100081, com, (09BJL042), 113

2 :,,,,,, : 1990,,?,,,,, 2000 (,2004) :1990,,,,,2000, (,2008),,,,,,,,, 1990,,,, 4, 10, ( ) 90,,,,, 2000,,, ,2000,, % % ;, 4518 % 4614 %, 2911 % 2514 %, :2007, 4818 %, 3514 % ;,, % 2000? 2000,,,,,, ;,, 114

3 2009 8,,,, 2000,,,,, 1 ( ), ( ) ,,,,, , , 89 % ; , 81 % ;, , 215 %,1999, 1999, 7, , % 358 % 2 3 ( 3), , , 345 %, ,,, 1999 :

4 :,,,, , : ; :,, ;,,,1999,,,,, % %, % %,,,, ( ) (2007), (CHIP), (2007) ( Engen and Gruber,2001),, Kazarosian (1997) 15 ;, Carroll (1994), -,,, Engen and Gruber (2001) :,, 1999, ,,,,, : , C, Y,stu - college (0,1 ), X, : 116

5 C = + Y + Y 3 stu - college + stu - college + X + (1),,, (1), ,,,, year(0 1995, ), : C = + Y + Y 3 stu - college 3 year + 1 Y 3 year + 2 Y 3 stu - college + 3 year 3 stu - college + 4 year + 5 stu - college + X + (2),,,, ( ),,,, 1999,,,,,,, 1 % 1 %,,,, , 48 %, 716 %, 114,, 3,,, , ( ), 2, (a) 1995 (1), (b) 2002 (1), (c) (2),, (a), 1995,, (b), stu - college,, ( ),,,,,, OLS :,,,, ; ; ; ;, 5 ;,,, 117

6 :,2002,, 0103, 12 %,,, (c) (a) (b),,, 1995, Consumption Income stu - college 0 ( ) ;13028 ;1 ( ) :1400 total - asset edu - payment med - payment avg - edu pop - number hholder - gender 0 ( ) :2578 ;1 ( ) :11850 hholder - age hholder - married 0 ( ) :548 ;1 ( ) :13880 hholder - edu Consumption Income stu - college 0 ( ) :13266 ;1 ( ) :2251 total - asset edu - payment med - payment avg - edu pop - number hholder - gender 0 ( ) :2517 ;1 ( ) :13000 hholder - age hholder - married 0 ( ) :740 ;1 ( ) :14769 hholder - edu : ;, 1995, 2002 ;,,1999 :,,,, stu - college,, stu - college, 12, 9, stu - college, :,,,,,, (,1999) ; 118

7 2009 8,,,,,,,,, 2 (a) (b) (c) t t t Income Income 3 stu - college Income 3 stu - college 3 year year 3 Income year 3 total - asset total - asset 3 stu - college 3 year year 3 stu - college year total - asset 3 stu - college stu - college total - asset medical - payment education pop - number urban hholder - gender hholder - age hhloder - married hhloder - edu constant Obs Adj. R :333 1 %,33 5 %, 3 10 %,,,,, ( ) (Deaton,1991 ;Carroll,2001 ),,, : 119

8 : max E t T s = t s- t u ( C s ) s. t. W s+1 R s+1 ( X s - C s ) s W s +1 R s+1 ( X s - C s - E s ) s Y s+1 = P s+1 s +1 ; P s+1 = GP s ; X s+1 = W s+1 + Y s+1 ; X s 0, W s + 1, s, R s + 1, s C s E s Y s + 1 s + 1, P s s + 1, E s ( s + 1 ) = 1, G s + 1 W s + 1 s + 1 Y s + 1,,,,, : c s = C s ΠP s, w s = W s ΠP s, x s = X s ΠP s, y s = Y s ΠP s, e s = E s ΠP s (CRRA), u ( c) = ( c )Π(1 - ), : v t ( x t ) = max u ( c t ) + E t [ G 1- v t +1 ( x t +1 ) ] s. t. w t +1 = RΠG( x t - c t ) t w t +1 = RΠG( x t - c t - e t ) t x t +1 = w t +1 + t +1 ; x t,, 0196, 4 %,,, 4 %(Carroll,2001), 1 5,, Carroll (2001), 2, 1, 012, Deaton (1991) Aiyagari (1993) %, G 9 % T, 20,60, T 40 ( ) -,,, 4,, 4,, c ( T) 45,, x ( T - 1) 10 c ( T - 1) 5,,, 45,, :,, 0 9, I 1 = ( -,1-7Π4 ) I 2 = (1-7Π4,1-5Π4 ) I 9 = (1 + 7Π4, + ), {1-2,,1 + 2 }, Carroll (2001) 120

9 2009 8,,, -, 5 lognormal (1,012) 40,, , ,,,,,, 4 ( ) - 5 -, 1999, p E s,, , p 0152, , 40000, - e s = E s ΠP s = 4,, t e = 20, 40, 40 % (,2007),, 014, Ps 40 % t e,,, t e,, 6 6,,,, :, ;,,,, t ( e),,,,,,, 121

10 : 6, -,, 7 7 -,,, - -, -, - ( t < 20),, 30, ( t > 20),, t e = 20,, t e,, ( ), ( 122

11 ),,, 3 (a), (b), , 1417 %,, 3,, 1990, (a) (b) t t Income Wealth Constant Obs Adj. R ,,, , 10,,, :, CHIP,,,, 12 %,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2007 :, 9,2007 :, ( ) 2,1999 :, 3,2004 : : , 10,1999 :, 6,2007 :?,

12 :,2008 :, 2 Aiyagari, S. Rao, 1993, Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving, Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Caballero, R. J., 1990, Consumption Puzzles and Precautionary Savings, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 25, pp Carroll, C. D., 2001, A Theory of the Consumption Function, With and Without Liquidity Constraints ( Expanded Version), NBER Working Paper No. W8387. Carroll, C. D., 1994, How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, pp Dardanoni, V., 1991, Precautionary Savings under Income Uncertainty a Cross2sectional Analysis, Applied Economics, Vol. 101, pp Deaton, A. S., 1991, Saving and Liquidity Constraints, Econometrica, Vol. 59, pp Engena E. M. and Gruberb J., 2001, Unemployment Insurance and Precautionary Saving, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 47, pp Kazarosian, M., 1997, Precautionary Savings2A Panel Study, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 79, pp Kimball, M. S., 1990, Precautionary Savings in the Small and in the Large, Econometrica, Vol. 58, pp Leland, H. E., 1968, Saving and Uncertainty : The Precautionary Demand for Saving, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 82, pp. 465 Miller, R. L., 1976, The Effect on Optimal Consumption of Increased Uncertainty in Labour Income in the Multi2period, Journal of Economics Theory, Vol. 13, pp Higher Education Reform, Precautionary Saving and Consumer Behavior Yang Rudai a and Chen Binkai b (a : China Center for Rural Research (CCRR), Xiangtan University b : School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics) Abstract :Substantial empirical researches show that households in China have high incentive of precautionary saving ; however, few micro2data2based studies on the reasons accounting for this incentive have been made. Based on the CHIP dataset, cross2 section analysis demonstrates that higher education reform in 1999 has a significant Squeeze2out effect on household consumption, and marginal propensity to consume of households with members attaining higher education had decreased by 12 percent from 1995 to Under the Life Cycle Model frame, a theoretical model is constructed with education being introduced in. Simulation analysis indicates that anticipation of increasing uncertainty as a result of higher education reform is the main reason that accounts for the higher incentive of precautionary saving and thus the sluggish consumption demand in China. Key Words : Higher Education Reform ; Precautionary Saving ; Consumer Behavior JEL Classification : I23, E21, D63 ( : ) ( : ) 124

DID 13. 0% 20. 2% 12. 6% 30 1 Leland 1968 Zeldes 1989 Zeldes 1989 Carroll Skinner 1987 Zhang & Wan

DID 13. 0% 20. 2% 12. 6% 30 1 Leland 1968 Zeldes 1989 Zeldes 1989 Carroll Skinner 1987 Zhang & Wan 2012 7! 2007 2008 13. 0% 20. 2% 12. 6% 2008 1 1990 2007 2010 2000 2007 20% 25% 2007 2010 80 1999 2007 2008 1 1999 2007 * 610074 zangwenbin@ gmail. com 100871 ggliu@ unc. edu 100871 xufei0505@ hotmail.