510 ( ) 7 (2002) 20 90,, ( Young, 1993),,,, (2003),,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,, (2001),,,,, (2004),,, ( ) (2003), ( ), (2003),,, ( 2002) (2003) (2000),,,,,,,

7 2 2008 1 ( ) China Econo mic Quarterly Vol17, No12 J anuary, 2008 : 1978 2005 3,, : (1),, ; (2) ; (3),,,, (dynamic efficiency),, ( Abel, et al., 1989),,,, ( Weil, 1987), ( Tirole, 1985 ;, 2001), (2002) (2003) 1992 1998 1996 2001,,,, (2004), (2004) (2004), 3 :,100084 ; : 13466634032 ; E2mail : lvbyang @gmail. com,,

510 ( ) 7 (2002) 20 90,, ( Young, 1993),,,, (2003),,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,, (2001),,,,, (2004),,, ( ) (2003), ( ), (2003),,, ( 2002) (2003) (2000),,,,,,,

2 : : 1978 2005 511 :,?,?,, (2004), 20 80, 1997 1999 5 %, 5 % ( Prescott, 1998) : 20 80?,, :,,, :,,,, 1 : f ( kgold) = n +. (1) kgold, sgold, n,, (1),, Phelp s (1966) :,, s > sgold,,, 1,, s sgold, cgold,, 1,, ( Ramsey, 1928 ; Cass, 1965 ; Koop mans, 1965) ( ),,,,, f ( k 3 ) > f ( kgold), f ( k) < 0, k 3 < kgold, 2, 1 113 118,,,,2000

512 ( ) 7 1 2,,, (Diamond, 1965) 2,,, L t t, n, L t = (1 + n) L t - 1, t L t 1, L t - 1 = L t/ (1 + n) 2, 1, 1 ; 2,, f ( k) = k, 2 44 51,,,, 1998

2 : : 1978 2005 513, k 3 k 3 = 1 (1 + n) (1 + g) 1 (1-2 + 1/ (1 - ) ). (2) f ( k 3 ) = k 3-1 (1 + n) (2 + 1 - ). (3) f ( kgold ) = n +,,,, f ( k 3 ) f ( kgold),, f ( k 3 ) f ( kgr),,,,, ;,, ;,,,, ( ),, (, 2002), ( Ibbot son, 1987 ; Cohen et al., 1995) :?,?,, (Blanchard and Fisher, 1989 ;, 1997, ),, ( Tobin, 1965 ; Solow, 1970 ; 3 96 116,,,, 2003

514 ( ) 7 Feldstein and Summers, 1977 ) AMSZ Abel et al. (1989),,,,,,,,,, :, ;,,,, ( ) 1. Tobin (1965) Solow (1970) Feldstein and Summers (1977),,,,,, : r K = 9Y 9 K Y = A K L. = A K - 1 L = Y K. (4) t Y t Kt t r Kt r Kt t, = t Y t. (5) K t, i Y i Ki i, i r Ki r Ki = i Y i. (6) K i,,,,,,, ( ),

2 : : 1978 2005 515, m ( x), m ( x),,,, Y, K L, X = [ K L ], 1978 2005, : Y i = m ( X i) + ui, i = 1,,27,, m ( ), ui m ( x), D m ( x) = n 6 i = 1 { y i - m ( x) - D T m ( x) ( X i - x) } 2 Kh n ( X i - x), 9m ( x) 9m ( x), 9x1 9x2 anechnikov K2 ( u) = 0. 75 (1 - u 2 ) +, : T, K, hn, Ep2 ^m n ( X, hn) = e T 1 ( X T x W x X x ) - 1 X T x W x Y, e1 = (1,0,,0) T, X x = ( X x,1,, X x, n) T, X x, i = (1, ( X i - x) T ) T, W x = diag{ Kh n ( X1 - x),, Kh n ( X n - x) }, Y = [ Y1,, Y n ] T., 1978 2005,,,, 1952,,,, (2003),,,,, GDP 1978, 4,,, 4,, ( 2006 )

516 ( ) 7, 3 3 1978 2005 3,, 1990,, 90, 1978 2005 = 0. 555, = 0. 445 2. 3, (5), r Kt ( 4 1 ), = 0. 3 ( 4 2 ), (, 1984 ;, 1993) 4 1978 2005 4,,, 4, 1993,, 1994,, 1998,,,,,,

2 : : 1978 2005 517, 3. (2004) ( 1),, 26,, 1 0. 314 0. 478 0. 502 0. 473 0. 351 0. 744 0. 458 0. 715 0. 469 0. 745 0. 254 0. 329 0. 488 0. 522 0. 689 0. 431 0. 200 0. 747 0. 159 0. 410 0. 384 0. 167 0. 433 0. 205 0. 870 0. 660 : (,2004) 5, (6),,, 6, 5, : ; 1991, 1978 1998, 1998 ; 1997, 1997 1997, 6,,,,,,,, 7 5, :, 91 107, :,2007 6,,, 7, 1,,,,,, 1

518 ( ) 7 5 6 7,,,, 7, 20 90,,, 2004,,, : (1), ; (2) 20 90, 2004,, ; (3), ( ) AMSZ, t, Rt V t,, ( Abel, et al.,

2 : : 1978 2005 519 7 1989), Phelps (1961) r n,,, r K K, n K, r K - n K, AMSZ AMSZ, (2002) (2003) 1992 1998 1996 2001,,,,, :, ;,,, ;,,,, AMSZ, 1996 2003 1. 1996 2005, ( ),, :

520 ( ) 7 = - - -,,,, 2002 2. 6 %,,,,,,, 8, (, 2002 ;, 2004) : = ( / ),,, (Mendoza, et al., 1977) : = ( / ),,, 1996 2005,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 8 2000

2 : : 1978 2005 521 2.,,,,, :, 2 3 9 2 ( ) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0. 069 0. 080 0. 062 0. 064 0. 069 0. 053 0. 032 0. 011 0. 050 0. 092 0. 086 0. 101 0. 089 0. 098 0. 124 0. 112 0. 094 0. 073 0. 103 0. 146 0. 110 0. 126 0. 106 0. 111 0. 106 0. 076 0. 047 0. 029 0. 087 0. 103 0. 004 0. 006-0. 018-0. 028-0. 041-0. 051-0. 066-0. 092-0. 058 0. 009 3 ( ) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0. 032 0. 036 0. 026 0. 025 0. 026 0. 015 0. 005-0. 002 0. 019 0. 032 0. 040 0. 046 0. 038 0. 040 0. 051 0. 044 0. 036 0. 027 0. 040 0. 058 0. 049 0. 059 0. 048 0. 046 0. 043 0. 028 0. 015 0. 006 0. 038 0. 041 0. 004 0. 001-0. 011-0. 017-0. 024-0. 038-0. 047-0. 048-0. 027-0. 011 : (1),, ; (2), 2000 2003,,, 2004, ; (3), GDP,,, ; (4) 1998, 2004, 8 3, 2,,,,, ( ), 9, 2 3,

522 ( ) 7 8,,,,,,,,,,,,, A B C, : A :,, X 10 B :,, X C :,, X, X,, A, B, C, C,, X,,,, 9 10 X, :,,, ;, (,, ( ),2002 1 2 )

2 : : 1978 2005 523 9 ( ) 9,,, 9, A,, B C,, A C,,,,,,,, C,,,, ( ) 1.,,,,, (, 1994, p. 55),,,,,,,

524 ( ) 7,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1978, ( ),,, 2. 10,, PPF, Y, X,, D,,,, A, A,,,, B, TE ( Technical Efficiency), A TE = OA/ OB. 10

2 : : 1978 2005 525, B, A E (Allocative Efficiency) A E = OB/ OC., A, EE ( Economic Efficiency) EE = TE A E = ( OA/ OB) ( OB/ OC) = OA/ OC.,,, A D,,,,, PPF,,,,,,,, 1993,,, A 3.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( Rybczynski, 1955),,,,,, 11 P Y / P X P Y / PX,,,, PPF,, C, F,,

526 ( ) 7 D F,, 11 ( ), 12,,,, C F,,, 12 ( ),,,,,,,, 10

2 : : 1978 2005 527, 11, 13,,,,, (, ),,,,, ( ), ( ),,,,,,,, 12,, ( ),,, 2005 65 559. 2, 1978 7. 14 ;, 1978 0. 86, 2005 1. 58, 11 (2002),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 12 1978 :1978 1984 10, ;1984 10 1987 10, ;1987 10 1989 6,, ;1989 6 1991, ;1992, ;1994, ;1999, : ; ; ;2001 7, ; ; ;2004 3, : ; (,, :, ( ) 2005 4 4 )

528 ( ) 7 13,,,,, (CCER, 2007),,, 1998 2. 2 % 2005 12. 6 %, 3. 7 % 14. 4 %, 6. 8 % 17. 8 %, (Bai, et al., 2006),,,,,,, 13 20 90,, 13,,,,, ;,,,, 20 90, (,2005 )

2 : : 1978 2005 529,,, : (1),,,,,, (2),,,, 20 90 2003 ;, GDP,, (3) : ; ; ;, [ 1 ] Abel A., G. Mankiw, L. Summers, and R. Zeckhauser, Assessing Dynamic Efficiency : Theory and Evidence, Review of Economic S tudies, 1989, 56 (1), 1 20. [ 2 ],, :,2000 [ 3 ] Bai, C., C. Hsieh, and Y, Qian, The Return of Capital in China, NBER, Working Papers, No. 12755, 2006. [ 4 ] Blanchard, O., and S. Fischer, L ecture on M acroeconomics. Cambridge MA : MIT Press, 1989. [ 5 ],, :,1998 [ 6 ] Cass, D., Optimum Growt h in an Aggregation Model of Capital Accumulation, Review of Eco2 nomic S tudies, 1965, 32 (3), 233 240. [ 7 ] CCER, (1978 2006), ( ),2007 6 3, 723 758 [ 8 ] Cohen, D., K. Hasset, and J. Kennedy, Are U. S. Invest ment and Capital Stocks at Optimal Levels? FEDS Working Paper, No. 9532, Board of Governors of t he Federal Reserve System, 1995. [ 9 ], :, 2000 [ 10 ],, :,2003

530 ( ) 7 [ 11 ] Diamond, P., National Debt in a Neoclassical Growt h Model, A merican Economic Review, 1965, 55 (5), 1126 1150. [ 12 ],,,2004 5, 48 57 [ 13 ],, ( ),2005 4 4, 937 952 [ 14 ] Feldstein, M., and L. Summers, Is t he Rate of Profit Falling? B rooking Papers in Economic A ctivit y, 1977, 1, 211 227. [ 15 ],,,2004 1, 45 53 [ 16 ], :1993 1997,,2004 3, 31 41 [ 17 ] Ibbot son, R., Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation, Market Result s for 1926 1986, in 1987 Yearbook. Chicago : R. G. Ibbot son Associates, Inc., 1987. [ 18 ],, ( ),2004 3 4, 877 887 [ 19 ] Koopmans, T., On t he Concept of Optimal Economic Growt h, in The Economic A p proach to Development Planning. Amsterdam : North Holland, 1965. [ 20 ],,,2003 2, 34 42 [ 21 ],,,2003 4, 18 32 [ 22 ],, ( ), 2002 1 2, 269 300 [ 23 ], : :,1994 [ 24 ],,,2004 7, 9 17 [ 25 ],,,2002 1, 67 76 [ 26 ],?,2004 10, 84 95 [ 27 ], : :,2007 [ 28 ] Mendoza, et al., Effective Tax Rate in Macroeconomics : Cross2county Estimates of Tax Rates on Income and Consumption, NBER Working Papers, No. 49864, 1994. [ 29 ] Prescott, E., Needed : A Theory of Total Factor Productivity, International Economic Review, 1998, 39 (3), 525 551. [ 30 ],, ( ) 2003 7, 807 831 [ 31 ] Ramsey F. P., A Mat hematical Theory of Saving, Economic J ournal, 1928, 38, 543 559. [ 32 ] Rybczynski, T. M., Factor Endowment s and Relative Commodity Prices, Economica, Novem2 ber. 1955. [ 33 ],,,2001 10, 52 62 [ 34 ],,,2002 8, 65 70 [ 35 ] Solow, M., Growt h T heory : A n Ex position. Oxford : Oxford University Press, 1970. [ 36 ] Tirole, J., Asset Bubble and Overlapping Generations, Economet rica, 1985, 53 ( 6 ), 1499 1528.

2 : : 1978 2005 531 [ 37 ] Tobin, J., Economic Growt h as an Objective of Government Policy, in Essays in Economics, Volume 1, M acroeconomics. Amsterdam : Nort h2holland Publishing Company, 1965, 174 194. [ 38 ],,,2003 2, 45 60 [ 39 ], 20 90,,2003 7, 18 26 [ 40 ], :,,2002 6, 3 13 [ 41 ], :1978 1997,,2001 3, 19 28 [ 42 ],,,2005 6, 63 70 [ 43 ] Weil, P., Confidence and t he Real Value of Money in Overlapping Generation Models, Quarterl y J ournal of Economics, 1987, 102 (1), 1 22. [ 44 ] Young, A., Lessons from t he East Asian NICS : a Contrarian View, Paper Presented at the Eight Annual Conference of the European Economic Association. Helsinki, 1993. 1996 2005 : 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 769. 6 834. 8 915 992. 1 1 180. 1 1 314. 4 1 433. 9 1 861. 6 1 718. 3 3 438. 9 491. 3 535. 7 548. 6 590. 8 738. 6 838. 5 933. 9 1 175 1 706. 7 2 382. 6 1 479. 5 1 717. 9 1 879. 2 1 943. 8 2 226. 3 2 439. 9 2 809. 7 3 414. 8 4 730. 4 5 623. 7 568. 4 653. 1 712. 7 656. 3 706. 8 752. 5 798. 7 1 317 1 600. 6 2 463. 1 406. 8 400. 3 351. 9 374 439. 4 497 539. 2 736. 7 1 195. 9 2 226. 1 1 390. 3 1 590 1 724. 6 1 895. 7 2 270. 3 2 456. 1 2 631. 9 2 904. 5 3 528. 8 4 155. 2 428. 9 439. 1 480. 9 518. 8 618. 4 488. 1 566. 2 745. 5 1 240. 7 1 902. 4 1 094. 6 1 271. 1 1 312. 2 1 335. 6 1 610 1 667. 1 1 727. 5 1 845. 6 3 065. 3 3 315. 9 1 707. 3 1 957. 5 2 123. 3 2 238. 1 2 500 2 631. 3 2 638. 8 3 146. 6 4 161. 6 5 193. 6 2 767. 7 3 036. 3 3 298. 2 3 586. 6 3 987 4 269. 5 4 748. 4 5 701. 4 8 081. 6 10 187. 2 2 109. 6 2 286. 5 2 474. 8 2 700. 9 2 750. 3 3 073. 4 3 608. 3 4 410. 2 5 950 7 557 752. 9 1 208. 9 1 158. 4 1 235 1 275. 7 1 360. 1 1 503. 1 1 697. 1 2 428. 9 2 788 1 187. 7 1 353. 4 1 514. 8 1 606. 6 1 897. 9 2 006 2 146. 8 2 366. 7 3 165. 9 3 470. 4 497. 1 540. 5 628 681. 1 702. 5 795. 5 950. 5 1 169. 2 1 719. 2 2 121. 2 3 118. 9 3 439. 1 3 676. 3 3 844. 8 4 202. 5 4 509. 2 4 910. 5 5 966. 7 8 874. 7 11 519. 7 1 149. 7 1 320. 6 1 518. 9 1 603. 5 1 828. 9 1 953. 5 2 214. 1 2 592. 3 4 181. 6 5 672. 2 1 074. 1 1 221. 6 1 323. 1 1 479. 3 1 609. 8 1 773. 4 1 874. 4 2 246. 6 3 237. 2 3 416. 6 788. 7 883. 4 1 021. 5 1 088. 4 1 237. 6 1 281. 8 1 439. 2 1 611. 5 2 597. 9 3 395. 9 3 012. 9 3 407. 8 3 363. 9 3 601. 2 4 420. 1 4 726. 6 4 863. 3 6 194. 6 7 671. 4 12 460. 8 534. 4 531. 4 531. 1 580. 9 639. 7 587. 1 679. 2 899. 7 1 352. 9 1 940 151 150. 1 166. 6 182 203. 3 211. 2 227. 4 258. 7 334. 9 426. 8 1 620. 7 1 287. 4 1 305. 7 1 364. 2 1 538. 9 1 605. 4 1 758. 7 2 057. 7 3 200. 9 3 754. 7 206. 4 233. 3 228. 5 256. 2 327. 2 404. 7 441. 2 522. 5 700. 3 985. 7 582. 9 653. 8 746. 9 713. 8 833 862. 9 919. 9 1 049. 1 1 467. 1 1 744. 4 5 14. 2 28 33. 3 33. 2 40 41. 6 66 88. 2 118. 1 411. 6 474. 4 523. 5 601. 4 600. 7 627. 2 784 994. 9 1 399. 6 2 051. 3 280. 8 321. 4 368. 6 391. 8 350. 2 416. 5 472. 2 585. 6 834. 6 1 175. 7 57. 2 61. 6 72. 5 77. 8 94. 3 108. 9 125. 5 150. 9 212. 9 272. 3 67. 3 72. 7 79. 5 81. 7 97. 9 109. 4 124. 3 153. 3 196. 9 302. 7 357. 2 408 415 451. 1 613 617. 4 673. 6 808. 5 1 016. 1 1 254

532 ( ) 7 The Dynamic Eff iciency of China s Capital Accumulation : 1978 2005 B IN GYAN G L V ( Tsi ng hua Uni versit y) Abstract This article studies the dynamic efficiency of China s capital accumulation on the basis of theoretical analysis. The following major conclusions are obtained. First, China s capital accumulation has shown dynamic efficiency. Second, the dynamic efficiency is correla2 ted with economic fluctuations and regional economic development levels. Third, the source of dynamic efficiency is technological progress, improvement s in technical efficiency, and im2 provement s in static and dynamic allocative efficiency. The space for improvement s in the dy2 namic efficiency is still very large when we take into account China s market2oriented reforms, late2comer advantages, and room for structural upgrading and transition in it s industries. JEL Classif ication E22, O11, P21