1940-2001 Deng and Treiman 1 2 50 1940 60 1978 1949 1978 1978 1 Deng, Zhong and Donald J. Treiman, The Impact of Cultural Revolution on Trends in Educational Attainment in the People s Republic of China, American Journal of Sociology, 1997, Vol.103, p.391. 2 Kerckhoff, Alan C., Institutional Arrangements and Stratification Processes in Industrial Societies, Annual Review of Sociology, 1995:21, pp.323-347; Treiman, Donald J. and Kam-Bor Yip, Educational and Occupational Attainment in 21 Countries, in Cross-National Research in Sociology, edited by Melvin L. Kohn, Newbury Park: Sage, 1989, pp.373-394; Shavit, Yossi and Hans-Peter Bolssfeld, eds., Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in Thirteen Countries, Boulder: Westview, 1993. 1
1 20 3 Coleman 4 2 1949-1978 Simkus Andorka 5 Parkin 6 Shavit Blossfeld 13 3 3 Bourdieu, Pierre, Cultural Reproduction and Social Reproduction, in Power and Ideology in Education, edited by Jerome Karabel and A. H. Halsey, New York: Oxford University Press, 1977, pp.487-511; Bourdieu, Pierre and Jean-Clande Passeron, Reproduction in Eduction, Society and Culture, Beverly Hills, Calif.:Sage, 1977. 4 Coleman, J. S., Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital, American Jouranl of Sociology, 1988, 94: 95-120. 5 Simkus, Albert and Rudolf Andorka, Educational Attainment in Hungary, American Sociological Review, 1982, 47:740-751. 6 Parkin, Frank, Class Inequality and Political Order: Social Stratification in Capitalist and Socialist Societies, New York: Praeger, 1971. 2
10 7 Deng Treiman 1982 Deng Treiman Deng Treiman 1981 1949 1953 28% 1958 55% 1965 71% Deng Treiman 8 Parish Whyte Deng Treiman 9 Parish 1966 7 Shavit, Yossi and Hans-Peter Bolssfeld, eds., Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in Thirteen Countries, Boulder: Westview, 1993. 8 Deng, Zhong and Donald J. Treiman, The Impact of Cultural Revolution on Trends in Educational Attainment in the People s Republic of China, American Journal of Sociology, 1997, 103:pp.391-428. 9 Parish, William L., Destratification in China, in Class and Social Stratification in Post-Revolution China, edited by J. L. Watson, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984, pp.84-120; Whyte, Martin, Inequality and Stratification in China, China Quarterly, 1975, 64:684-711; Whyte Martin, Destratification and Restratification in China, in Social Inequality edited by G. Berreman, New York: Academic, 1981, pp.309-336. 3
3 1978 1978 1978 1977 10 11 10 2000 1 3-9 2002 2003 2003 57 11 Sorokin, P. A., Social Mobility, New York: Harper, 1927. 4
12 1949-1978 1978 1 1949 1949 1978 1 1940 1990 30 50 60 70 70 1980 12 Zhou, Xueguang, Phyllis Moen and Nancy Brandon Tuma, Educational Stratification in Urban China: 1949-94, Sociology of Education, 1998, 71:199-222; Hannum, Emily and Yu Xie, Trends in Educational Gender Inequality in China 1949-1985, Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 1994, 13:73-98. 5
2 1978 1978 1990 1940 1990 13 2 1940 1990 30 50-70 20 80-90 3 1940 1990 30 50 60 70 70 1980 4 30 20 5 30 20 30 20 13 6
6 2 7 30 80 90 1990 7
8 2001 11-12 12 73 6193 16-70 2001 5858 Ordered logistic regression model 14 14 [ ] 14 14 8
6 cohort 1931 1940 40 50 1941 1950 50 60 1951 1960 60 70 1961 1970 70 80 1971 1980 80 90 1981 1985 90 14 a b c 1 1 1 R 2 1940 1990 1 R 2 1940 1950 14 15.5% 1950 1960 16.0% 1960 1970 13.1% 1970 1980 9.9% 1980 1990 17.9% 1940 1970 1970 1980 1990 9
50 1 1981-1985 90 R 2 1 R 2 R 2 0.179 0.20 0.160 0.155 0.15 0.131 0.140 0.099 0.147 0.10 0.108 0.114 0.088 0.05 0.045 0.036 0.020 0.01 0.018 0.009 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 14 2 1 1 60 1 R 2 1940-1950 10.8% 14.0% 70 8.8% 1980 1990 14.7% 1 1940 31-40 2.1 3.3 5.2 1970 61-70 10
2.0-2.6 70 1980 1990 71-80 3.6 2.9 1.3 80 90 3 1 1 80 80 90 1930 40 50 1 31-40 41-50 51-60 1970 61-70 1980 1990 2.3 1.0 0.8 4 1950 1970 1940 1990 1990 1990 2 2 14 5 11
1 1931-40 40 50 3.8 1949 1949 1950 41-50 1960 1970 51-60 15 1.9 16 2.5 2.4 1961-1970 1 1.2 1970 1977 15 51-60 60 70 61-70 70 80 16 71 12
60 80 1980 1960 1970 61-70 1960 1970 1980 1990 6 2 2 14 14 14 R 2 R 2 7.5 4.4 3.1 2.1 2 13
R 2 R 2 8.6 7 3 3 14 14 14 1950 1970 1970 1980 1990 R 2 1931-1940 1940 1950 9.4% 14 3.3 1941-1950 1950 1960 17.9% 4.2 1960 1970 1951-1960 1961-1970 R 2 12.0% 11.1% 3.5 3.0 1980 1990 1971-1980 R 2 12.7% 3.0 1980 1990 3 12.3% 8.1% 3.6 2.7 8 4 4 3 14
I II 2.5 2.0 4.2 1.5 11.7 11.1 4.0 III 1.8 1940 2001 60 1931-40 4.5 1941-50 5.9 1951-60 6.7 1961-70 7.9 1971-80 8.8 1981-85 9.6 5 60 1950-1970 1980-1990 15
5 30 20 1949 1978 1977 1949 1949 1970 1980 1950 1960 1970 1980 1980 1990 16
77.6% 1980 1980 1990 17
1 ( ) 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-85 N=5858 (N=539) (N=770) (N=1158) (N=1628) (N=1383) (N=382) 3.431**** (.190) 5.224**** (.869) 3.897**** (.700) 3.531**** (.452) 2.583**** (.297) 3.626**** (.311) 2.051*** (.732) 2.434**** (.203) 3.262**** (.979) 2.883**** (.628) 2.076**** (.469) 2.038**** (.360) 2.856**** (.332).848* (.444) 1.822**** (.129) 2.093**** (.541) 2.584**** (.375) 2.529**** (.319) 2.529**** (.319) 1.320**** (.210) 1.322**** (.288).976**** (.143).771 (.560).448 (.392).439 (.313).425 (.234).771*** (.271) 1.605*** (.509) 1.121**** (.115).688 (.440).927** (.354).362 (.265).520** (.197).801**** (.206).492 (.421) 1.604**** (.139).345 (.887).485 (.495).615 (.450).492* (.241) 1.004**** (.222).886* (.383) 2.421**** (.223) -.374 (1.511) 1.863 (1.722).972 (.782) 1.186*** (.367) 2.319**** (.339) 1.260*** (.442) 3.588e-02-2.255** (.826) -1.969e-02 (.580) 2.512**** (.544) -.987* (.488) -.176 (.433) 1.581* (.799) -9.061e-02-3.804**** (.788) -.845 (.543) 1.855**** (.510) -1.210** (.452) -.162 (.385) 2.110* (.651).580* (.255) -2.391* (1.041) 1.465e-02 (.793) 2.427**** (.633) -1.328** (.511).221 (.409) 1.261 (.664) 14 1.189e-05** -7.700e-06 4.717e-04* 2.031e-04 1.578e-04* 2.017e-06-3.621e-07 5.931**** (.226) 6.736**** (.773) 5.369**** (.534) 3.790**** (.510) 8.046**** (.459) 7.400**** (.397) 6.087**** (.723) R 2.157.155.160.131.099.179.157 *: p.05; **:p.01; ***:p.005; ****:p<.001 18
2 ( ) N=4814 1.754**** (.267) 1.029**** (.287).861**** (.184) N=1046 4.409**** (.354) 3.100**** (.366) 2.080**** (.301) 1.079**** 1.773e-02 (.155) (.340) 1.183****.393 (.125) (.278) 1.562****.998**** (.159) (.282) 2.397**** 1.573**** (.269) (.383).305 -.860 (.265) (.562) N=2933 2.960**** (.266) 1.958**** (.283) 1.416**** (.182).871**** (.192) 1.063**** (.153) 1.688**** (.193) 2.187**** (.303) N=2926 3.938**** (.260) 2.721**** (.280) 2.153**** (.176).908**** (.203) 1.088**** (.165) 1.306**** (.194) 2.181**** 4.165e-03 (.314).154 (.672).119 (.245) -.802 (.512) -2.009e-02 (.288) -.146 (.665).384* (.286) -.117 (.541).925** (.342) 236. (.527) 14 ( ) 1.870e-04**** -6.996e-07 2.978e-06 1.892e-04**** 5.514**** (.246) 7.518**** (.549) 6.624**** (.289) 5.054**** R 2.102.175.135.221 *: p.05; **:p.01; ***:p.005; ****:p<.001 19
3 ( ) 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-85 N=5858 N=539 N=770 N=1158 N=1628 N=1383 N=382 (N=2933) (N=2926) ( ) 3.110**** (.123) 3.331**** (.441) 4.149**** (.319) 3.487**** (.277) 2.987**** (.209) 2.988**** (.211) 1.808**** (2.988) 2.707**** (.168) 3.548**** (.175) 6.804**** (.051) 3.767**** (.200) 5.101**** (.136) 6.101**** (.115) 7.381**** (.083) 8.212**** (.088) 8.819**** (.130) 7.429**** (.068) 6.164**** (.075) R 2.098.094.179.120.111.127.070.081.123 *: p.05; **:p.01; ***:p.005; ****:p<.001 20
4 ) Model I Coefficient Odds ratio Model II Coefficient Odds ratio Model III Coefficient Odds ratio ( ) 0.9166**** 2.5 (0.1890) 2.4560**** 11.7 (0.4417) 0.6800*** 2.0 (0.1939) 2.4054**** 11.1 (0.2944) ( ) 1.4448**** 4.2 (0.2152) 1.3763*** 4.0 (0.4372) 0.4123* 1.5 (0.1833) -0.7766* 0.5 (0.3904) ( ) 0.5861**** 1.8 (0.1471) 0.5947**** 1.8 0.1388 Intercept1-2.7361**** (0.1239) - 4.3124**** (0.1819) -1.4924**** (0.1175) Intercept2-2.0824**** (0.1174) -3.5575**** (0.1485) 0.8961**** (0.1129) - 2 log likelihood 3050.369 791.440 2506.949 X 2 313.7376**** 178.0680**** 22.0164**** 4 4 2 2136 1950 1385 / *: p.05; **:p.01; ***:p.005; ****:p<.001 21
5 18-22 % % % % 1952 49.2 - - - 1957 61.7 44.2 39.7-1965 84.7 82.5 70.0-1975 96.8 90.6 60.4-1980 93.9 75.9 45.9-1985 96.0 68.4 41.7-1990 97.8 74.6 40.6-1995 - - - 7.2 1998 98.9 94.3 50.7 9.8 2001 - - - 13.3 1999 100 3 2002 20 9 22